Any other Houstonians out there?? I am wondering what the consensus is about evacuating.....I am in La Porte, pretty close to the water....
Hi Drews Mum. I’m next door to you in Seabrook. Keeping a watchful eye on things just as you are.
Houston here. By the 10pm news tonight, they should have better recommendations. A lot of the scenarios involve flooding here even if the storm tracks east of us, so I’d start preparing for that even if it stays on an LA course. But I’d stay tuned tonight and tomorrow. If a worst-case scenario emerges, they will evacuate by zip code to try to avoid the Katrina gridlock. But it may still be a mess, so if they start saying an evacuation is possible on the 10pm news, I’d get everything ready so you can leave tomorrow if necessary. At the moment, evacuation for our area does not seem to be the most likely scenario (but is still possible). In any case, I would gas up now because they will keep running fuel into the area as long as possible to avoid the shortages like last time, but if the storm shifts towards us there will be too much of a rush to accommodate efficiently and the lines will be long as in 2005. Plus, prices should jump substantially in this area over the next few days. I’d go get any emergency supplies you don’t already have (canned goods, bottled water, batteries) because if the forecast suddenly changes, there will be a last-minute rush and hoarding because everyone will have to suddenly get ready all at the same time with only a 24-48 hour window before the weather starts to hit and things shut down.
http://www.houstongasprices.com/
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/hurricanes/gustav/
August 30, 2008
Four potential scenarios for the Cat. 4 Gustav
Hurricane Gustav has become a large storm today, reaching category 4 status with 145 mph winds. As the following satellite image shows, Gustav has developed a distinct eye and will soon begin crossing Cuba.
At this point I envision at least four possible scenarios, in order of most likely to least likely:
1. Central Louisiana landfall, moves inland: This scenario basically follows the GFDL model and the official track forecast. A major hurricane slams into the Louisiana coast just east of New Iberia. The storm slows as it moves inland and perhaps stalls over northeast Texas. There’s lots of rainfall in Louisiana and east Texas, including Houston. The storm hits Lake Charles and Baton Rouge hard but other major population centers are largely spared damaging winds.
2. Central Louisiana landfall, stalls: In such a scenario, similar to the HWRF model, Gustav makes landfall in central Louisiana as a major hurricane and moves inland for a short period of time. In one to three days, however, it moves back offshore and may re-strengthen before ultimately striking Texas. In such a scenario Texas is probably spared catastrophic winds but there is a potential for significant flooding.
3. Eastern Louisiana landfall: Perhaps after taking a northward jog off Cuba, Gustav makes landfall east of Morgan City as a major hurricane. As I have described below such a scenario is potentially catastrophic for the city of New Orleans, which would face a massive storm surge.
4. Upper Texas coast landfall: Before Gustav reaches the central Louisiana coast the storm bumps into a high pressure system, which bends it westward toward Texas. Depending how close Gustav comes to shore, this scenario could bring a major hurricane to Texas.
I’m in Katy (just west of Houston, approx. 80 miles from Galveston) so even if it comes to Galveston, I’ll stay put.
You really need to keep a watch on this one.