Infrared Satellite Image Loop
Infrared Image Loop
FL and East GOM
Western GOM
West Atlantic
Florida
Posted on 08/28/2008 8:25:49 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The 2008 peak of hurricane season is ramping up with Gustav and Hanna. The two storms pose threats to the U.S. At least 22 deaths in Hispanola are attributed to Gustav to date, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica. Tropical Storm Hanna has formed in the Atlantic.
| Gustav |
Hanna |
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| Visible Satellite Image Loop Infrared Satellite Image Loop |
Visible Image Loop Infrared Image Loop |
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| WV Satellite Image Loop |
WV Image Loop |
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| Public Advisory |
Public Advisory |
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| Discussion |
Discussion |
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| Buoy Data: Western Caribbean FL and East GOM Western GOM |
East Caribbean West Atlantic Florida |
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Here’s hoping for a zippy Gus!
LOL—thanks for checking in! Hurry back with your upgraded/updated/repaired ‘puter.
Looks like it’s tracking west and we, here in Mississippi, may have dodged the bullet. What do you think?
TAW
Doesn’t the “cone” pretty much follow the GFDL model? All the other models shifted west except gfdl, well, it shifted slightly.
Sea surface temp linkhttp://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008241gosst.png
On NPR on the way home, they were saying that the Dems were saying that Palin was too inexperienced to be "a heartbeat away from the Presidency"....and my first thought was "they really don't want to GO there" considering that Obama has NO executive experience and hasn't done a whole lot in his short time in the Senate...
I don’t think the cone strictly follows the GFDL.
Hurricane Gustav Public Advisory Number 20
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 29, 2008
...Gustav becomes a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean...
At 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...a tropical storm watch is issued for the
lower Florida Keys from west of the Seven Mile Bridge westward to
Dry Tortugas. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands...and
for the western Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud...Pinar del
Rio...la Habana...and Ciudad de la Habana.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Jamaica...and for the
central Cuban provinces of Matanzas...Cienfuegos...Villa
Clara...Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...and Granma.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Gustav was located
near latitude 19.2 north...longitude 79.7 west or about 100 miles...
160 km...east of Grand Cayman and about 380 miles...610 km...
east-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple
of days. On this track...the center of Gustav will pass near or
over the Cayman Islands tonight...over the western portions of Cuba
on Saturday...and into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday
night or Sunday.
Data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher gusts.
Gustav is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days...and
Gustav could become a major hurricane near the time it crosses
western Cuba.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160
miles...260 km.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 980 mb...28.94 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 5 feet above normal tide levels
is possible in the Cayman Islands...with 8 to 13 feet possible near
where the center of Gustav crosses western Cuba...including Isla de
Juventud.
Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to
12 inches across Jamaica...the Cayman Islands...and western
Cuba...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches possible.
These rains will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible
over southern Cuba.
Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...19.2 N...79.7 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75 mph.
Minimum central pressure...980 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
Tropical Storm Hanna Public Advisory Number 7
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 29, 2008
...Hanna passing well north of the Virgin Islands...
Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas should monitor the progress of Hanna.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was
located near latitude 21.8 north...longitude 63.8 west or about 280
miles...450 km...north-northeast of San Juan Puerto Rico and about
470 miles...755 km...east of Grand Turk island.
Hanna is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr.
A motion between west-northwest and northwest is expected during
the next couple of days. On this track...the center of Hanna is
forecast to pass well of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
tonight and Saturday...and then be northeast of the southeastern
Bahamas on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days and Hanna could be near hurricane strength on Sunday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.
Rain bands associated with Hanna could produce rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across portions of the Leeward
Islands.
Repeating the 500 PM AST position...21.8 N...63.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50
mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
The reason I posted Elana is it cost me alot of time as I was forced to shelter on Friday and missed my flight home.
On Saturday they released me and I got out of there. On Monday it nailed Biloxi and I was back by military transport by Wednesday. Sheesh.
~~~
That sounds like a real pain in the azz,,,
I guess I’ve been lucky to have only been in one direct-hit.
From what I’ve seen on local news Gus is shifting west,,,
Comin’ in the SE side of La. and out the NW corner,,,
That puts it in the Shreveport/Bossier area next week,,,
On the bad side,,,
Hopefully it don’t pull a Fay...:0/
000 URNT12 KNHC 292105 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008 A. 29/20:51:50Z B. 19 deg 04 min N 079 deg 40 min W C. 700 mb 2902 m D. 57 kt E. 114 deg 28 nm F. 211 deg 058 kt G. 109 deg 016 nm H. 977 mb I. 11 C/ 3044 m J. 14 C/ 3049 m K. 9 C/ NA L. CLOSED M. C25 N. 12345/7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF307 1007A GUSTAV1 OB 06 MAX FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 19:02:40 Z SURFACE WIND VISUALLY OBSERVED RAGGED EYEWALL PRESENTATIONChanges between 3:11 pm EDT and 4:51 pm EDT:
- Pressure down 3 mb to 977 mb
- Motion to the west-northwest (288 degrees) at 11 mph (a westward jog)
- Eyewall notably ragged.
Hurricane Gustav Discussion Number 20
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 29, 2008
Visible imagery has occasionally revealed an eye trying to
form...but that feature has not been persistent.
Nevertheless...the cyclone continues to increase in
organization...with solid convective bands and upper-level outflow
that is well-developed in all quadrants. The underlying waters of
the northwestern Caribbean Sea are quite warm...and to some depth
beneath the surface...so there are no apparent impediments to
additional strengthening before Gustav reaches western Cuba. Even
rapid intensification is possible...as supported by the latest
SHIPS-based rapid intensification index that shows a 35 percent
chance of an intensity increase of 30 kt or more during the next 24
hours...so it is possible that Gustav could reach major hurricane
status prior to crossing western Cuba. Passage over Cuba will not
likely have much impact on the storm’s strength...and all guidance
forecasts a strengthening trend over the southern Gulf...with
slight weakening possible in the northern Gulf. The official
forecast again calls for a major hurricane over the Gulf...and
despite the weakening implied by the lesser intensity over land at
96 hours...Gustav could make final landfall along some portion of
the northern Gulf Coast as a major Hurricane.
Gustav has turned more to the right and sped up a little...now
moving at about 305/10...as it heads for a break in the subtropical
ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The portion of that ridge
that is intact over the Southern Plains of the United States is
forecast by all models to evolve into a deep-layer high that will
reach the northeastern U.S. In a few days. There are important
differences among the models...however...in how much ridging will
extend southwestward from that high toward Texas...and in how strong
the upper-level trough currently over the central Gulf will be over
the western Gulf in a few days. These varying solutions lead to
different tracks for Gustav over the northern Gulf. Models with
the ridge extension and a stronger upper-level trough west of
Gustav...such as the NOGAPS and UKMET...forecast Gustav to turn
westward toward Texas. Others including the GFS...GFDL...and
HWRF...do not show the ridge extension nor a strong upper-level
trough...and forecast Gustav to be pulled into the northern Gulf
Coast farther east. The new official forecast leans toward the
latter solutions and is east of the consensus...and represents no
significant change to the previous advisory. Due to the notable
model spread late in the forecast period...it is once again
important to restate that it is simply not yet possible to
determine exactly where and when Gustav will make final landfall.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 29/2100z 19.2n 79.7w 65 kt
12hr VT 30/0600z 20.1n 80.9w 75 kt
24hr VT 30/1800z 21.7n 82.8w 90 kt...over Isle of Youth
36hr VT 31/0600z 23.4n 84.8w 100 kt
48hr VT 31/1800z 25.2n 86.8w 110 kt
72hr VT 01/1800z 28.0n 90.0w 105 kt
96hr VT 02/1800z 30.5n 92.5w 85 kt...inland
120hr VT 03/1800z 32.0n 94.0w 55 kt...inland
$$
forecaster Knabb
Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 7
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 29, 2008
The center of Hanna remains near the western edge of the rather
shapeless area of deep convection seen in satellite imagery. A
1412 UTC ascat pass found winds of 40 kt over the northeastern
semicircle. Given the low bias typical of ascat winds in this
range...it supports maintaining the initial intensity at 45 kt.
This intensity is also supported by satellite estimates from
TAFB and SAB which remain t3.0 or 45 kt.
Water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level low located a
couple hundred miles west-northwest of Hanna has not budged
today and it continues to impart southwesterly shear on the
tropical cyclone. The dynamical models remain emphatic
suggesting that the upper-low will move west or west-
southwestward and weaken...allowing Hanna to gradually
strengthen. The new NHC intensity forecast continues to allow for
some strengthening during the next couple days but shows a lower
peak intensity than was forecast in the previous advisory. In
about 3 days...the models continue to forecast strong northwest to
north upper-level winds over the western Atlantic. These winds are
partially the result of outflow from Gustav. Despite the hostile
upper-level wind forecast...the intensity guidance does not predict
weakening. Our intensity forecast remains on the low side of the
guidance and still assumes that the northerly shear will have a
negative impact on Hanna’s intensity.
Hanna continues moving west-northwestward or 295/9. In
general...the forecast guidance has come into a little better
agreement on the future track of Hanna. The tropical storm is
forecast to continue west-northwestward during the next 2
days...followed by a turn toward the west-southwest. The HWRF
continues to be an outlier showing a cyclonic loop north of the
southeastern Bahamas. The new track forecast is very similar to
the previous forecast through 48 hours...but is a little faster
and farther west thereafter.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 29/2100z 21.8n 63.8w 45 kt
12hr VT 30/0600z 22.8n 65.4w 50 kt
24hr VT 30/1800z 24.0n 67.7w 55 kt
36hr VT 31/0600z 24.8n 69.8w 60 kt
48hr VT 31/1800z 25.0n 71.1w 65 kt
72hr VT 01/1800z 24.5n 72.5w 65 kt
96hr VT 02/1800z 23.7n 73.7w 60 kt
120hr VT 03/1800z 23.0n 75.0w 60 kt
$$
forecaster Brown
I hope so...because if you did, then I probaby did here in Mobile too.
I hope it gets real zippy, lol.
.
Just in case anyone from the New Orleans / and the surrounding area needs to find hotels I heard that many Hotels in Jackson, Mississippi area are already booked. We have friends who live in LA and they had to book hotel rooms in Memphis, TN.
So please make arrangements now, you can always cancel a room 24 hours in advance, better to be safe than sorry!
Thanks much for the local report. Good to know a lot of folks are taking this storm seriously.
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