Posted on 07/20/2008 8:36:53 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Newly formed Tropical Storm Dolly over the NW Caribbean Sea near 18.4N 84.2W. 1008 MB at 11AM this morning. Max sustained winds 40KT, gusts 50KT, moving NW at 15KT.
Dolly appears to be slowly organizing over the very warm waters of
the northwestern Caribbean...although data from the Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft indicate the low-level circulation is not
quite as well-defined as it was this morning. Deep convection has
been persistent throughout the day...and SFMR and flight-level
winds support maintaining the intensity at 40 kt. Upper-level
outflow is gradually expanding...even to the west...as water vapor
imagery shows that the upper-level low just west of Dolly is headed
rapidly southwestward and is weakening. Dolly is not expected to
strengthen much...if at all...as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula
early tomorrow. Once it emerges over the southern Gulf...
however...it will be situated beneath a large upper-level
anticyclone and over sea-surface temperatures of at least 28
celsius. Given these conditions...and assuming the cyclone remains
intact and vertically aligned after its passage over Yucatan...
strengthening over the Gulf appears to be the most likely scenario.
All of the primary objective intensity models forecast that to
happen...and all forecast Dolly to attain hurricane status over the
western Gulf. The new official intensity forecast follows that
guidance...but it is important to remember that long-range
intensity forecasts have a significant amount of uncertainty.
Even with the aircraft data...the initial motion has been a little
difficult to gauge...but it is estimated to be 305/12. The models
forecast a somewhat faster forward motion during the next 24-36
hours...but the official forecast lags a little behind the
consensus during that period...given the slower initial motion and
that there is no strong indication from the model fields that Dolly
should accelerate much. The mid-level ridge along the Gulf Coast
is forecast by all of the models to gradually weaken after Dolly
reaches the Gulf...so they all forecast a decrease in forward
motion starting in a couple of days. The track model spread is not
all that large through 72 hours...and the consensus has not moved
much since this morning...so the new official track is very similar
to the previous one...just perhaps a little faster at the end. It
is far too early to determine exactly where Dolly will make final
landfall.
Yeah. We were just drying out too.
Yeah. We were just drying out too.
Well said!
Interestingly, though, if you check the trop fcst pts box at the map page, you’ll see the Dolly magically teleport itself to eastern Cuba this evening and then hits Miami!
This is going to be breaking news!
Thanks for the ping, NN.
Hope your health has improved.
Don’t know if we could get through a hurricane season without you. Right now, Dolly’s predicted path is aimed at my home and CindyDawg’s, too.
that’s right, you did get a good soaking, maybe it will come up here. All things point south at the moment though.
From what I’ve heard much of that area has been rebuilt,,,
Most folks didn’t Bug-Out when they got the warning about
Audrey,,,
Some folks never learn,,,(Katrina)...
Post #82 tells a bunch,,,
That shows the eye-strike at CAT-1~Port Brownsville,Tx.
area,,,
Still too early to know just where,,,
RigZone.com should have the info up by tomorrow,,,
They may be shutting some rigs down tonight,,,
Gas is gunna go back UP!...:0/
We are dry as a bone here in NE Louisiana. You know it’s getting bad when you’re rooting for a tropical storm to come in your general direction. I will add your area to my prayer for rain tonight.
Thank you DG, I appreciate the update and ping.
...;0)
Many times Brownsville has been in the "bulls eye" but the storm usually turns. We never know though.
I 2nd that. Thanks NN. I got so frustrated ..what was it...two seasons ago....we lost cable before a tropical storm even came in. This year I have a card for my lap top :’)
Gas went down $.08 or so around here,,,oil down $16.00,,,
It’s sure to go back up tomorrow...
Anywhere in that cone will shut-down the rigs,,,
Can’t take the chance not to,,,
Tis’ The Season...:0/
Crude is already moving up slightly.
Great... And, I’m supposed to fly to Vera Cruz on Wednesday....
That might be interesting...
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