No strike.
Here’s what is happening: Iran wants to be a recognized nuclear power, gifted with a UN Security Council Veto & Membership representing the Middle-East, and all current trade sanctions against Persia ended.
So here is their plan: pursue their nuclear program in public as Part One...
Sabre Rattle against the U.S. and Israel for Part Two...
Make such incendiary public statements and overt military actions (without crossing a certain line) that Israel or the U.S. bombs Iran...
At which point Iran rolls out Part Three: it “tests” the nuke that it bought from North Korea...
...and Iran makes this test public **IMMEDIATELY** after it gets bombed by the U.S. or Israel...
Meaning that Iran is then poised to go on a WORLD TOUR ginning up sympathy for its “defensive” possession of nukes and the need for Iran to be elevated in UN status as a “counter-balance to the U.S. and Israel.
So the big picture here is that Iran is baiting us to attack them as part of their trap.
Regardless, there are two facts: 1) no matter what the threat, short of a 100% confirmed, Democrats-signatures-on-the-document, sworn oath agreement on intel that there is a sure-fire nuke attack coming on a U.S. city, no one in the Bush administration will launch another “pre-emptive” strike for the rest of this term. Won’t happen. 2) Israel cannot do this again, and certainly not without at least knowing in advance we won’t condemn them. They would have to overfly U.S.-controlled airspace-—not Arab or Iraqi airspace as they did before-— and we absolutely won’t let them do this.
Fine analysis.