Posted on 06/21/2008 3:52:47 PM PDT by Perdogg
Was it cocktail hour when you wrote that? :~ p
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-06/23/content_6786925.htm
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services believes the 100 basis point increase in the deposit reserve requirement to a 23-year high of 17.5% will tighten the pressure on the banks’ asset and liability management. This will lead them to accelerate the shift in their asset mix towards low-yield reserve assets, which will take a toll on profitability. Higher yields on debt securities will also ensure revaluation losses on domestic trading books.
“The biggest threat to banks will center on loan quality, as marginal borrowers struggle to secure loans amid tightening credit conditions, which further asset adjustments will exacerbate,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Qiang Liao.
https://www.theasianbanker.com/A556C5/Update.nsf/0/BE59AEB53D5FCD534825747200085593?Opendocument
according to Bob Janjuah of the Royal Bank of Scotland: “A very nasty period is soon to be upon us. Be prepared.” It's not like the RBS to go around making alarmist statements but it has warned of a “global equity and credit crash” this autumn. Morgan Stanley bank has forecast a “catastrophic event”. The hedge fund guru John Paulson says global losses from the credit crisis, currently $300bn, may reach $1.3 trillion.
Meanwhile, the world's stock markets are falling: 50% in China, 30% here if you strip out unstable oil, mining and commodities. The commodities boom is due for a sharp correction and many banks are in deep trouble. Which is why analysts are warning of further stock market and credit shocks this autumn. They believe we haven't begun to recognise the scale and ramifications of this crisis.
Ahmadinejad has been criticised by Iranian economists for provoking inflation rates of almost 25 per cent with high spending instead of saving the treasury windfalls from the high price of oil.
Economic issues will be crucial when the controversial president, as expected, seeks re-election in the summer next year. He said part of the government's reform of the economy would include the gradual dismantling of subsidies, which the government pays to keep basic goods such as bread and petrol at ultra-low prices. “We hope to start with some areas in the second half of the year. We have plans for all subsidies,” he said, without elaborating.
http://news.smh.com.au/world/oil-market-is-saturated-iran-president-20080624-2vpp.html
Iran should consent: (1) to halt its enrichment activities for a set period, fully cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency and ratify its Additional Protocol, and restart its enrichment programs at the end of the specified period or after it reaches an agreement with its nuclear nemesis for a fully verifiable enrichment for civilian use - whichever comes first; (2) to remove all support for the anti-Israeli and anti-American groups in the region (Iraq and the Occupied Territories included), and officially accept the two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict; and (3) to allow for free and fair elections in the country beginning with the 2009 Iranian presidential elections. These and other auxiliary compromises that might be demanded from Iran and its nuclear nemesis should be attractive to many of the stakeholders in US-Iran relations.
http://www.payvand.com/news/08/jun/1200.html
WASHINGTON (AFP) The United States is considering opening an interests section staffed by US diplomats in Tehran, similar to the one it has in Cuba, a State Department official said Monday.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gY5cRpfxfwC98CNhl_tg35aEyvEg
After the Olympics at the end of August there will be a bank crash in China and the speculative commodities market will adjust south some 30+ %.The worldwide economic downturn -- which is due to the price of oil -- will probably have an impact on attendance at the Olympics. The Chinese earthquake death toll, especially among the one-child-household schoolchildren, and the protests in Tibet, have shaken that society. China is lucky that its rice-backbone agriculture is still so labor-intensive (in particular, in comparison with that of the US); FWIW/IMHO, I no longer expect the crude price to decline much by this time next year, but the Chinese economy is so export-driven that the crude price will have a serious impact over time.
The Iranian economy with its 25 - 30 % inflation will have a flush down when the income from oil is evaporating. Iran will step down its confrontational policies in October/November 2008 and Ahmadinejad is replaced.I think you're right about the Iranian economic meltdown (which has been going on a while already), but I don't think Ahmadeadman is going to be turned out in the next election. I think he'll win, then be struck down by the Guardian Council, given a quick drumhead trial, and executed for "crimes". He's grown too powerful, and intends to grow even more powerful.
Then there will be a military agreement between Washington and Tehran. The Saudis don't know what to think: Is this against the Wahhabis or only against al Qaeda?Interesting. I don't see it happening though, even if Ahmedinejad is replaced (by whatever means), because the nuclear weapons program would have to be dismantled with a guaranteed transparency, inspections, etc, as demanded by the US, EU, and UN. :')
Thanks!
Chinese warned of record rise in ore price
The Financial Times | 6/22/2008 | Javier Blas and Rebecca Bream
Posted on 06/22/2008 9:32:34 PM PDT by bruinbirdman
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2034943/posts
China to raise gasoline, diesel prices 18 percent: sources
Reuters via Yahoo! | June 19, 2008 | Reuters
Posted on 06/19/2008 10:55:14 AM PDT by Brilliant
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2033435/posts
Oil prices push trade deficit to 13-month high
AP via Houston Chronicle | June 10, 2008 | Associated Press
Posted on 06/10/2008 6:56:42 AM PDT by thackney
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2028817/posts
China stocks slide 7.7 pct on monetary tightening
Reuters | 06/10/08 | Claire Zhang
Posted on 06/10/2008 1:26:51 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2028723/posts
Where is the China Earthquake Donation Money Going?
TeachAbroadChina.com | 5/29/2008 | Robert Vance
Posted on 05/29/2008 8:34:02 AM PDT by robertvance
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2022986/posts
China’s power plants running out of coal
Yahoo News | 05.20.08, 3:06 PM ET | JOE McDONALD
Posted on 05/20/2008 8:11:40 PM PDT by Fred
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2019002/posts
Sure, Boycott China, If You Want to Walk Around Naked
North Star Writers Group | April 15, 2008 | Lucia de Vernai
Posted on 04/15/2008 5:03:25 AM PDT by Invisigoth
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2001796/posts
China Freezes Lending to Curb Investing Frenzy
WSJ | November 19, 2007 | JAMES T. AREDDY
Posted on 11/19/2007 5:32:55 AM PST by Brilliant
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1927789/posts
China’s bubble may burst but the impact will be limited
The Financial Times | 10/20/07 | Andy Xie, an independent economist in Shanghai
Posted on 10/20/2007 8:15:19 PM PDT by bruinbirdman
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1914114/posts
Check the charts: http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2008/06/16/the-road-to-revulsion.aspx
Israel only December 6.
USA on December 10, after Iran’s reaction.
Thanks!
No strike.
Here’s what is happening: Iran wants to be a recognized nuclear power, gifted with a UN Security Council Veto & Membership representing the Middle-East, and all current trade sanctions against Persia ended.
So here is their plan: pursue their nuclear program in public as Part One...
Sabre Rattle against the U.S. and Israel for Part Two...
Make such incendiary public statements and overt military actions (without crossing a certain line) that Israel or the U.S. bombs Iran...
At which point Iran rolls out Part Three: it “tests” the nuke that it bought from North Korea...
...and Iran makes this test public **IMMEDIATELY** after it gets bombed by the U.S. or Israel...
Meaning that Iran is then poised to go on a WORLD TOUR ginning up sympathy for its “defensive” possession of nukes and the need for Iran to be elevated in UN status as a “counter-balance to the U.S. and Israel.
So the big picture here is that Iran is baiting us to attack them as part of their trap.
Regardless, there are two facts: 1) no matter what the threat, short of a 100% confirmed, Democrats-signatures-on-the-document, sworn oath agreement on intel that there is a sure-fire nuke attack coming on a U.S. city, no one in the Bush administration will launch another “pre-emptive” strike for the rest of this term. Won’t happen. 2) Israel cannot do this again, and certainly not without at least knowing in advance we won’t condemn them. They would have to overfly U.S.-controlled airspace-—not Arab or Iraqi airspace as they did before-— and we absolutely won’t let them do this.
Fine analysis.
The only reason I can see for waiting until they’re in the final stages of building a bomb is that’s when you have the maximum amount of fissible material and technical expertise, all in one place and at the same time.
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