New post from FerFAL:
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 2009
Reply: Debts and devaluated currency
Chris said...
Hi FerFAL, I am going to re-post a question I asked a few blogs back.
I had to ask this question:
Based on your experience in Argentina, when the currency collapses, what happens to debts denominated in that currency?
Like say I had a $20,000 debt, and the currency became worthless.
Could I take some gold and exchange it for huge sums of the failed currency and pay off that debt just like that? Essentially paying the debt of for a fraction of what it was when I took out the loan?
What if a family member has a large debt and they can't pay? Is there any risk there for other members of that family?
Thanks in advance.
Thanks Chris, sorry I missed it before.
It happened here, and yes, your assumptions are correct.
I’ve heard and saw a lot of cases.
People that where just about to pay a debt with dollar, and just the day before they did, the economy crashed, and a few weeks later they just had to pay ¼ of what they had borrowed.
Same happened to others but the other way around. They paid for the debt and a few weeks later realized that if they had waited they would have saved ¾ of their money.
People that got into debt in dollar for a house, machinery, where lucky because since the problem was so big, all accounts and debts where “pesified”, means they were turned to pesos which at the times was 4 pesos =1 USD. Their debt was suddenly reduced to 25% of the original amount.
Of course you no longer got paid in a currency that was 1 to1 with the USD, but yes, it was a sweet deal for some.
But don’t expect the USD to become worthless any time soon, it wont.
Yes, expect it to loose value, while as you well say, gold maintains it.
About risks for other family member, cant tell. At least here, everyone is accountable for their own debts ( them and they wives) in some cases if the person isn’t solvent they can go against their parents. But I haven’t heard of too many cases like this, though it has occurred.
Anonymous said...
Ferfal, could you tell us which kinds of guns are available in Argentina and where to buy them?
At gun shops of course :) You can buy from another gun user if both of you have all your papers.
You can have any handgun, bolt action rifle, pump shotgun, lever action rifles and carbines, semi auto 22LR box fed mag carbines. Semi auto box feed centerfire long arms are nearly impossible to get, require a collector’s license. You need a legitimate gun user card, you’ll need:
Legal source of income
Pass a physical and psychological exam (I passed, met some people that didn’t)
Pass a basic handling safety course.
Prove you have no previous criminal records.
Norcal said...
Chris, that is a great question. Say you buy something on your credit card now for $20,000 or $30,000. Then hyperinflation hits in a few months. Then you pay it off in hyperinflated dollars?
Yes.
The guy that saved money all his life gets robbed, while the guy that had a big loan benefits. Life is unfair. Sue it. :^)
Anonymous said...
I enjoy reading your blog. You offer practical, common sense, and intelligent advice and have "been there, done that, and got the T-shirt." As a spoiled American, I look about at the enormous wealth in my country, and think that "it can't happen here," but I know that it can. In your opinion, if the American dollar crashes, what do you believe will happen in the USA? A Mad Max scenario? Total locked down Police State? Or, would Argentina be more of a societal model?
No man, not Mad Max, not even close.
Things will get worse, pretty bad for some ( specially those that have a hard time finding a job again) And the crappy situation will likely last for years. This is hard to avoid or to speed up the healing process.
But USA is still USA, the economy wont be utterly destroyed like it happened here ( we only have a mock of what a real economy should be, every serious non gov fund economist says so) It’s going to get tougher, specially regarding everyday security. Not zombies or gang of biker looters, but everyday stuff.
“Billy got mugged” “The guy that lives across the street got attacked” “The girl that lives next door was robbed last night” “The Smith’s got robbed at their home, they tied them up and picked the house clean” And yes, people will get killed more often to.
You guys have race related problems and internal conflicts. Expect that to escalate some.
I know it already happens in USA but my point is it will happen much more as things follow their post-crash natural course.
You’ll hear these things a LOT.
It wont be on the news (news will show just part, and foucs on other things so as not to spread panic), it will be happening to you and the people around you, it’s going to be what you talk about when you pick the kids from school, and the teacher will chip in with HER robbery (this actually happened to me, the teacher had been carjacked at gunpoint in front of the school at 7 AM, in spite of the private school’s hired security)
So crime and insecurity will be something you live with, and the big “other” thing you’ll have to worry about besides the economy, your job, and making enough money.
So crime and insecurity will be something you live with, and the big “other” thing you’ll have to worry about besides the economy, your job, and making enough money. <<<
He is so wise and correct in what he has seen.
Scary future we have facing us.