College Football - Live Thread - Bowl Season

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[MikefromOhio]

The college football bowl season is upon us. Some of these games are worth watching, others are pure and simple money grabs. That said, I do like the fact that there are bowl games for all of the conference winners. However, I do NOT understand why the 6th place Big Ten team or the 8th place SEC team has a bowl game to go too. It’s all about the money. Almost all of these games will be on ESPN or ESPN2, but I will highlight the channel that these games are on. This thread will cover all non-National Title games. I’ll put all of the minor bowl games first and separate the BCS games after that. I’ll be doing a separate thread for the BCS National Title game.

Tuesday, December 19th, 2006 (ESPN2 at 8PM)



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Northern Illinois vs. (25) TCU (-12)

Garrett Wolfe and Northern Illinois can regain some of the national respect it had early on this season when it ran the ball on Ohio State and it appeared that Wolfe was going to challenge some of the records that Barry Sanders set. Meanwhile TCU has climbed all the way back up and into the top 25 after a bit of a slump to start out the year. Remember TCU was one of the favorite picks as a small conference school to make it to the BCS. This one appears to be a bit of a clunker.

TCU 34 – Northern Illinois 6

Thursday, December 21st, 2006 (ESPN at 8PM)

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(19) BYU (-4) vs. Oregon

BYU could really make a case for it being in the top 20 for NEXT year with a convincing win here. Oregon is again looking for some momentum to carry into the 2007 season. This game may be the best game of the early bowl games. Of course that might not be saying much.

BYU 33 – Oregon 28

Friday, December 22nd, 2006 (ESPN2 at 8PM)

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Rice (-5.5) vs. Troy

This game is so obscure that I had trouble finding the right helmet for Troy State. This is a game where the Sun Belt champion, Troy, is getting a reward for winning their conference. That’s fine with me. Rice, however, was a decent Conference USA team, but really this match-up isn’t exactly going to put butts in the seats or eyes on the TV sets across the nation. Troy does provide a bit of a local flavor as they are from Alabama, so expect a bit of a home crowd for them.

Rice 34 – Troy 24

Saturday, December 23rd, 2006 (ESPN2 at 1PM)

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South Florida (-4) vs. East Carolina

South Florida has put in an impressive season, with victories over West Virginia and Pittsburgh. East Carolina’s best claim to fame is either the victory over a bad NC State team or maybe the 5 point loss to Navy. For whatever reason, I don’t think that this game will be very watch-able. I will say, however, that if South Florida puts on a good show, there is a very good chance that they will be in the top 25 to start next year.

South Florida 32 – East Carolina 22

Saturday, December 23rd, 2006 (ESPN at 4:30PM)

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San Jose State vs. New Mexico (-3.5)

I’m sure sean327 will be thrilled to see his Lobos in a bowl game. However, I am having issues figuring out WHY this game is being played. But since it is, I’m also having issues figuring out WHY New Mexico is a 4 point favorite here. San Jose State took Boise State to the limit. Now during the regular season I was 2-5-1 when picking New Mexico games so maybe sean327 will like this pick.

San Jose State 34 – New Mexico 17

Saturday, December 23rd, 2006 (ESPN at 8PM)

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Tulsa vs. Utah (-1.5)

This may be one of the better early bowl game match-ups. These two teams seem to be about even, yet both play hard. Tulsa was supposed to contend for the CUSA championship this year but didn’t get it done. Utah was in a rebuilding mode and I’m sure the extra 3 weeks of practice have been welcomed by the coaches.

Tulsa 24 – Utah 20

Sunday, December 24th, 2006 (The website says ESPN will televise, but ESPN doesn’t say so at 8PM)

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Arizona State vs. Hawaii (-8)

CFN predicted that this game may be one of the best games to watch this year. I agree. ASU can’t stop anyone on defense and Hawaii is a WAC team – meaning they are prone to giving up points in bunches as well. This should be a fun one to watch on Christmas Eve, especially if both offenses show up. Also watch for Hawaii QB Colt Brennan to launch his 2007 Heisman campaign with a good showing here.

Hawaii 62 – Arizona State 38

Tuesday, December 26th, 2006 (ESPN at 8PM)

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Middle Tennessee State vs. Central Michigan (-10)

One of the stupidest things about the bowl lineup is that a team that did not win their conference outright, as MTSU did NOT do in the Sun Belt, ends up getting into a bigger money bowl game than the actual champion (Troy) did. This opportunity was given to them because the Big Ten did not have enough eligible teams to fill out their bowl lineup with Ohio State and Michigan making the BCS. This game comes down to whether MTSU can slow down the Central Michigan offense. I don’t think that will happen and this game has bad match-up written all over it.

Central Michigan 42 – MTSU 17

Wednesday, December 27th, 2006 (ESPN at 8PM)

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Florida State vs. UCLA (-4.5)

FSU has struggled with active and athletic defensive fronts all year long. Guess what they drew in this match-up? The very same defensive front which beat on USC all day of course. Not a good sign for Florida State. Expect a boring game.

UCLA 13 – Florida State 6

Thursday, December 28th, 2006 (ESPN at 4:30 PM)

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Oklahoma State (-2) vs. Alabama

I can’t imagine Alabama being ready to play this game. It means nothing, chances are they won’t have a coach at this point and they will still have issues throwing the ball. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, can throw on anyone. Sometimes they have issues stopping the other guy from doing the same thing.

Oklahoma State 33 – Alabama 17

Thursday, December 28th, 2006 (ESPN at 8PM)

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(21) Texas A&M vs. (20) California (-5)

For Cal, this is about building for next year. For Texas A&M, it’s about building off of the surprising Texas win and proving that they can play with the big boys in a consistent basis. I think A&M will keep it close, but I wonder if they will score enough to hang with the playmakers that Cal can bring to the table.

Cal 28 – Texas A&M 17

Thursday, December 28th, 2006 (NFL NETWORK at 8PM)

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(16) Rutgers (-7.5) vs. Kansas State

I kind of enjoyed watching Rutgers this year. They came really out of nowhere and really had every opportunity to go undefeated. K-State knocked Texas completely out of National Title contention with a surprisingly explosive win. Rutgers has the defense to stop K-State, but can they throw well enough to get the job done? We will find out. This game is on the NFL Network.

Rutgers 21 – K-State 18

Friday, December 29th, 2006 (ESPN at 1PM)

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Clemson (-10) vs. Kentucky

This should be a well attended game if nothing else. This game comes down to Clemson’s ability to run the ball. I don’t think Kentucky will be able to stop them. That will mean that Kentucky will have to play mistake free on offense to score enough to keep it close. Kentucky is light-years ahead of where it was last year, but it’s not on that level yet.

Clemson 35 – Kentucky 20

Friday, December 29th, 2006 (CBS at 2PM)

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(24) Oregon State (-3.5) vs. Missouri

Remember Missouri? You know, one of the last remaining unbeaten teams as late as the last week of October? Since their first loss on October 14th, Mizzou finished out the year losing 3 of their last 5 games. Oregon State, on the other hand, was about two week short of beating USC in one of the bigger shockers of the year. Little did we all know that Oregon State would finish 3rd in the Pac-10 this year at the time.

Oregon State 32 – Missouri 18

Friday, December 29th, 2006 (ESPN at 4:30PM)

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Houston vs. South Carolina (-6.5)

Houston won the Conference USA and probably should be ranked at this point in time. South Carolina was in position to possibly get a win against Auburn, Arkansas AND Florida. That, along with the Steve Spurrier influence, is why I am picking South Carolina to win easily here.

South Carolina 38 – Houston 17

Friday, December 29th, 2006 (NFL Network at 7:30PM)

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Texas Tech (-6.5) vs. Minnesota

Although they played much better down the stretch in the Big Ten, Minnesota is not that good of a team. Texas Tech should be able to throw the ball all over the place against the Minnesota defense. This has blowout written all over it. This game will be on the NFL Network.

Texas Tech 44 – Minnesota 21

Friday, December 29th, 2006 (ESPN at 8PM)

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Purdue vs. Maryland (PICK)

Well look here, a winnable game for Purdue. As I was figuring out who to pick for this game, I was stuck on trying to figure out whether Maryland is a good team or is Maryland a mediocre team with a good record because of the weak ACC this year? I’m going with my instincts and say this is a mediocre team for right now. After all, they did give up 38 points to Wake Forest and while Wake is good at all facets of the game, Purdue is better on offense than Wake is.

Purdue 42 – Maryland 30

Saturday, December 30th, 2006 (ESPN at 1PM)

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Navy vs. (23) Boston College (-6)

It’s the battle of look-alike helmets in this bowl game. Navy got here with a dominant running game. BC got here by being lucky when it needed to be (BYU and FSU wins) and good at other times. BC had it’s shot at the depleted ACC this year, but choked. That won’t matter here, they have Navy outmanned. Remember, red facemasks are BC and blue facemasks are Navy.

BC 38 – Navy 17

Saturday, December 30th, 2006 (ESPN at 4:30 PM)

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(18) Texas (-11) vs. Iowa

Both teams went through a tale of two seasons this year. On September 29th, Iowa was #13 in the country and appeared to be ready to challenge Ohio State for the supremacy of the Big Ten. Fast forward to early November and Iowa had to beat Northern Illinois to qualify for a bowl game at 6-4 (they went on to lose their last two games). Texas, after losing to Ohio State early, had done what everyone expected of them. Until the Kansas State team took advantage of an injury to Colt McCoy and, with the aid of some absolutely great play calling, beat Texas. After that, Texas never fully recovered, following up the loss to K State with an uninspired loss to Texas A&M. Don’t overlook this game. Colt McCoy still isn’t practicing at the time I put this thread together and Iowa, which has struggled with injuries all year long, but has had over 50 days to recover.

Texas 27 – Iowa 20

Saturday, December 30th, 2006 (ESPN at 8 PM)

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Georgia vs. (14) Virginia Tech (-2.5)

These teams are relatively even when looking at their rosters and performances this year. Virginia Tech benefits by playing in the ACC while Georgia had a tough game seemingly every week. This game will be decided by the play of the Georgia QB, whichever one they decide to start. If that guy plays well, they will have a good show to win this game. If not, Virginia Tech will win a relatively boring game.

Virginia Tech 24 – UGA 13

Sunday, December 31st, 2006 (ESPN at 7:30 PM)

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Miami (-3.5) vs. Nevada

People in Miami don’t want to watch Miami IN Miami, much less Boise, Idaho. Have fun freezing your butt off Larry Coker. I can’t guarantee that I’ll even watch this one.

Miami 22 – Nevada 17

Monday, January 1st, 2006 (ESPN at 11AM)

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(17) Tennessee (-4.5) vs. Penn State

11 AM?? Ouch. At least we get to see Joe Paterno on the sidelines for this one if he’s improved enough. Penn State has the defense to keep this close, but their offense has killed them all year long. I think Penn State will keep it close, but I expect Tennessee to pull it out in the end.

Tennessee 18 – Penn State 14

Monday, January 1st, 2006 (FOX at 11:30 AM)

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(10) Auburn (-3) vs. (22) Nebraska

Here is yet another game with an early start that is guaranteed to have a higher rating in the 2nd half than in the first. Anyway, Nebraska’s play-calling tends to be really annoyingly conservative in big games. Auburn, on the other hand, tends to throw interceptions when there is defensive pressure up the middle. Which will break through first? I think Auburn will.

Auburn 27 – Nebraska 13

Monday, January 1st, 2006 (ABC at 1PM)

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(12) Arkansas (-1.5) vs. (6) Wisconsin

Have I ever mentioned that I have a serious problem with how the corporations buying up the rights to these bowl games are ruining it by changing the name of the bowl game TO the corporation name? Anyway, Arkansas, arguably playing like one of the top 3 teams in the nation right now, squares off against a Wisconsin team whose only loss came back in September to Michigan. This will be about running the ball and establishing momentum with the run. Expect this game to be over by 3PM with the way these run rely on their running games.

Wisconsin 21 – Arkansas 20

Monday, January 1st, 2006 (CBS at 1PM)

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Georgia Tech vs. (13) West Virginia (-7)

Reggie Ball, the Quarterback for Georgia Tech, burst onto the scene as a freshman QB, showing the skills of a poor-man’s Michael Vick. Since then, he’s fully regressed into someone who should NOT be on the field. Just look at his performance in the ACC title game. He has one of the best deep ball threats in recent memory in Calvin Johnson, yet can’t get the ball to him on a consistent basis. Now that West Virginia has kept their coach, they get to build momentum by blasting a mediocre Georgia Tech team.

West Virginia 38 – Georgia Tech 10

Saturday, January 6th, 2006 (ESPN2 at 8PM)

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Western Michigan vs. Cincinnati (-8)

Minor Bowl games should NOT be played after January 1st. This game pits a middle of the pack MAC team against a pretty good Cincy team that beat Rutgers. Expect a boring game that won’t be very close after the first half.

Cincinnati 30 – Western Michigan 10

Sunday, January 7th, 2006 (ESPN at 8PM)

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Ohio vs. Southern Miss (-6)

See previous statement about games being played after the first of the year. There is just about no prospect for this game to be entertaining.

Southern Miss 34 – Ohio 14

Monday, January 1st, 2006 (ABC at 5PM)

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(8) USC (-1) vs. (3) Michigan

We get a rematch of the 2004 Rose Bowl where Michigan was blown out by USC. This time, however, USC is the team with the young QB in the backfield and the question marks in the running game. Michigan enters the game as one of the best in the nation and a team that has what some would call a legit argument to be in the National Title game against Ohio State for a rematch. If Michigan focuses on the snub instead of on USC, they will lose. If USC doesn’t figure out how to contain an active defensive front, they will lose by 3 TDs. This is a huge game for one Lloyd Carr. If he wins it, this could be a springboard for Michigan into the 2007 season (and a probably number one ranking out of the gates). If he loses it, the whispers will become louder that he can’t win the big game anymore. This should be a pretty good match-up with a pretty close score.

Michigan 32 – USC 24

Monday, January 1st, 2006 (Fox at 8PM)

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(9) Boise State vs. (7) Oklahoma (-7.5)

Can Boise State hang with the big boys? They’ll get a big test from Oklahoma who is clearly the best team they have faced all year long. Oklahoma will have Adrian Peterson, so we can expect them to run the ball early and often. However, Paul Thompson has come a very long way from where he started the season as a Quarterback. Boise State absolutely rolled through the WAC and blew out Oregon State. Boise State will not roll over for Oklahoma. This won’t be a repeat of the 2004 Fiesta when Utah rolled over Pitt.

Oklahoma 28 – Boise State 24

Tuesday, January 2nd, 2006 (FOX at 8PM)

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(5) Louisville (-10) vs. (15) Wake Forest

Congratulations to Wake Forest for winning the ACC. Sure the ACC was down, but it’s still impressive for a team like Wake to come out of nowhere and really dominate all year. And while I’m at it, good luck in stopping Louisville and their offense. They can win this game, but they will need Louisville to turn the ball over at least 4 times. Wake has the defense to win, but not the offense.

Louisville 33 – Wake Forest 17

Wednesday, January 3rd, 2006 (FOX at 8PM)

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(11) Notre Dame vs. (4) LSU (-9)

LSU looks very similar to Ohio State of last year. They are #4 going into the bowl game, against Notre Dame, with a Quarterback who is figuring out finally how to be a Quarterback. Notre Dame is going to struggle in this game due to the defensive front seven of LSU and their speed on offense. Again this sounds like a script for the Ohio State – Notre Dame Game last year. Expect a similar result this year as well.

LSU 44 – Notre Dame 21

[dakine]

Yeah, I thought Smith was kind of short...but heck, so was Fran Tarkenton...

[MikefromOhio]

Troy Smith is about half an inch shorter in height than Drew Brees. Troy has somewhat better mobility and I think his arm is stronger, but Brees has always been more accurate.

It hasn't hurt Brees one bit.

[MplsSteve]

I vaguely remember that. Yes, I think it was that particular game.

A lot of sports fans like to trash these minor bowl games - but they've never bothered me.

I almost like them better than the New Years Day bowl games.

It'll be interesting to see if any bowl games get decertified by the NCAA in the off-season. I recall there being a few games that were teetering on the edge, the New Orleans Bowl for example.

[CFC__VRWC]

My bowl picks are below.

The lines have shifted in a lot of these games since you posted the thread. I updated them as needed using the lines published in the local paper's sports page box scores (I assume these come from AP).

FWIW;

TCU (-11.5)
BYU (-3.5)
Rice (-5)
USF (-3.5)*
New Mexico (-4)*
Utah (-1)
Hawaii (-8)
Central Michigan (-10.5)
UCLA (-4.5)
Ok State (-2)
Texas A&M (+5)
Rutgers (-7.5)*
Clemson (-10)*
Oregon State (-3.5)
South Carolina (-6.5)
Texas Tech (-6.5)
Maryland (-1)
BC (-6)
Texas (-11)*
Va Tech (-2.5)
Nevada (+3)
Tennessee (-4.5)*
Auburn (-3)
Arkansas (-1)
West Virginia (-7)
Cincy (-8)
Southern Miss (-6.5)
Michigan (+1)
Oklahoma (-7.5)*
Louisville (-10)
LSU (-8.5)

[MikefromOhio]

I figured they would a bit.

An edit function would be great here :)

Anyway, they haven't adjusted to the point that I'd change any of my picks.

Oh well :)

[CFC__VRWC]

Yeah, they're real minor changes, a half point to a point at most - more like tweaks than real shifts. However, Purdue-Maryland is no longer a pick 'em; Maryland's now a 1 point favorite. I have them as my pick.

I know you're not doing Ohio State Florida on this thread, but right now I'd pick OSU to win, but not to cover the 7.5 point spread.

[MikefromOhio]

yeah I'll put up an entirely different thread for that game, like I wanted to do last year but someone beat me out.

That won't happen this year.

that purdon't-Maryland game was between a Maryland (-1) and Pick game when I was making the thread out. It just happened to be a Pick when I posted it.

I think we are going to find out that Maryland was a decent team from a BAD conference. They haven't faced an offense quite like Purdue's yet this year. It'll be a major test for them.

[Michael.SF.]

Mike, Look for both UCLA and Cal to get beat. Here is why:

UCLA has been hot and cold all season. They have found ways to lose when they should have won (Notre Dame) and ways to win games they were expected to lose (USC). At USC they got the momentum on their side and their defense was just plain, outstanding. They had also lost 7 in a row to USC, so motivation was huge. I look for them to be cold and not as motivated.

Cal -- If they can't make the Rose Bowl, they seem to have no interest in any other bowl games. Sorry, Cal has such a history of choking, that I expect them to do so one more time.

[MikefromOhio]

Cal wouldn't surprise me.

They had the Rose Bowl for the taking and choked it away. Texas A&M didn't honestly think they'd be anywhere near the bowl game they are in....

That said, UCLA is playing Florida State. Florida State is the all-time king of hot and cold teams.

[MHGinTN]

Placemarker ping ... great resource!

[Dog Gone]

You picked Michigan over USC.

That is heresy.

[Georgia]

If Stafford plays well for GA and the receivers don't start dropping his passes, I think GA can take it. If the offense sputters it will be VA Tech.

[IOWAfan]

TCU (-11.5)*
ORE
Rice (-5)
USF (-3.5)
San Jose
Tulsa
Hawaii (-8)
Central Michigan (-10.5)
UCLA (-4.5)
Ok State (-2)
Texas A&M (+5)
K State
Clemson (-10)*
Oregon State (-3.5)
South Carolina (-6.5)
Texas Tech (-6.5)*
Purdue
BC (-6)
IOWA
GEO
U of Miami
PSU
NEB
Wiskey
West Virginia (-7)
Cincy (-8)
Southern Miss (-6.5)
USC
Oklahoma (-7.5)
Louisville (-10)
LSU (-8.5)*


can't go against the Hawks they sure look over matched though - and MICH never plays that well at the Rosebowl. USC will be USC in that game - they play good in the big games against good teams. (but I'll be rooting for MICH)

hmmmm... I think I was just supposed to * because beat the spread = win I guess - sorry (Mike if you want me to re-post I can)

GO HAWKS!

[MikefromOhio]

Nah the * means you pick the team but that you don't think they will cover....

I think you're ok :)

[MikefromOhio]

One hour to gametime...

[IOWAfan]

yep.

thanks Mike, this will be fun!

great job on the graphics that had to take some time!

Go Big Ten!

[scott says]

I didn't do my "picks" yet...
In this one I'll take TCU and give the 12 points.

[DeaconBenjamin2]

I'll embarrass myself

TCU (-12)
Oregon
Troy
South Florida (-4)
San Jose State
Utah (-1.5)
Hawaii (-8)
Middle Tennessee State
UCLA (-4.5)
Oklahoma State (-2)
California (-5)
Kansas State
Clemson (-10)*
Missouri
South Carolina (-6.5)
Texas Tech (-6.5)
Maryland
Boston College (-6)
Texas (-11)*
Georgia
Nevada
Tennessee (-4.5)
Nebraska
Arkansas (-1.5)
West Virginia (-7)
Cincinnati (-8)*
Southern Miss (-6)
USC (-1)
Boise State
Louisville (-10)
LSU (-9)

[mainepatsfan]

One of the many great things about this time of year is having a bowl game to watch just about every night.

[MikefromOhio]

ok...gotcha :)