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I do think that there is a very good chance Nifong will lose the election.
1) He barely won the primary when only dems could vote. There were a lot of frustrated Repubs back in May.
2) RS's alibi had been revealed only the day before the primary: the truth was only beginning to come out.
3) Since May, facts have been pouring out regarding this case. All of here are experts on it as are many others as a result of the relentless pursuit of the truth by blogs. It is now clear that procsecutorial abuse has been occurring in Durham.

I do think that there is a very good chance Nifong will lose the election.

I agree that Recall Nifong-Vote Cheek has a shot at victory. Results of the May 2 primary--

Mike Nifong- 11,168 45%
Freda Black- 10,269 42%
Keith Bishop-- 3,288 13%

http://abclocal.go.com/three/wtvd/election/race190.htm

According to the latest voter registration figures, Durham County has 27,070 registered Republicans, 24,566 of whom are white. The county has 86,621 registered Democrats, 46,586 of whom are black. So the demographic bloc supportive of Nifong's behavior formed a majority of the Democratic electorate, while those most likely to be alienated by his tactics couldn't vote in the primary. As the director of the Durham County Board of Elections noted the day after the primary, "We had a lot of irate, irate Republicans who couldn't vote for district attorney."

http://hnn.us/blogs/entries/25357.html