2006 Senate Races

What an undistinguished bunch of Dems! What do we know about these Senators and they're chances of re-election?

1 posted on 11/08/2004 5:41:58 PM PST by chiller

2 posted on 11/08/2004 5:44:03 PM PST by sdkhaki

I'd sure like to see Dayton bested. This Limousine Liberal seems as dumb as a dirt clod. (His Target stores are dropping like flies in IN. 3 this week) what's his connection there, anyhow?

3 posted on 11/08/2004 5:46:36 PM PST by digger48

You really are a political junkie. Me, I'm not thinking about the next election for at least the next 3 or 4 days.

4 posted on 11/08/2004 5:49:00 PM PST by BJungNan (Stop Spam - Do NOT buy from junk email.)

There are four aging Democrats who may retire in 2006. They are Daniel Akaka of Hawaii, who will be 83 y/o that year, Robert Byrd of West Virginia (89), Paul Sarbanes (73), and Ted Kennedy (74). There is an outside chance that Dianne Feinstein of Califnornia (73) will also retire. The action is usually in the open seats, but they all represent Democratic states.

5 posted on 11/08/2004 5:50:08 PM PST by Clintonfatigued

Akaka, Daniel , HI - safe
Bingaman, Jeff , NM - probably safe, but depends on who Republicans run against him.
Byrd, Robert , WV - safe
Cantwell, Maria , WA - safe
Carper, Thomas , DE - safe
Clinton, Hillary , NY - Possible pickup, but depends on who Republicans run against her. If Guiliani, he wins easily. If Pataki, may be close. I don't have a good read on how NYers feel about Pataki.
Conrad, Kent , ND - probably safe, but depends on who Republicans run against him.
Corzine, Jon , NJ - safe
Dayton, Mark , MN - possible pickup, he is quite whacky apparently. As always it depends on who Republicans run against him.
Feinstein, Dianne , CA - safe
Kennedy, Edward , MA - safe
Kohl, Herb , WI - probably safe, but depends on who Republicans run against him.
Lieberman, Joseph , CN - safe
Nelson, Ben , NE - probably safe, he usually stays fairly conservative.
Nelson, Bill , FL - probably safe, but not sure who Republicans have to run against him
Sarbanes, Paul , MD - safe
Stabenow, Debbie , MI - safe

6 posted on 11/08/2004 5:51:39 PM PST by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds, a pessimist fears this is true.)

My Humble Guesses:

Akaka, Daniel , HI - Not Vunerable
Bingaman, Jeff , NM - VUNERABLE
Byrd, Robert , WV - Pork King, Not Likely, But Oh would it be nice!
Cantwell, Maria , WA - NOT
Carper, Thomas , DE - NOT
Clinton, Hillary , NY - MORE VUNERABLE THAN YOU THINK
Conrad, Kent , ND - VUNERABLE
Corzine, Jon , NJ - PROBABLY NOT
Dayton, Mark , MN - CAN BE BEATEN, APPLICANT MUST BE BREATHING.
Feinstein, Dianne , CA - NO WAY
Kennedy, Edward , MA - RUN MITT, RUN... RUN MITT, RUN
Kohl, Herb , WI - NOT LIKELY
Lieberman, Joseph , CN - NOT LIKELY
Nelson, Ben , NE - VUNERABLE
Nelson, Bill , FL - VUNERABLE
Sarbanes, Paul , MD - NOT LIKELY
Stabenow, Debbie , MI - VUNERABLE

Independents

Jeffords, James , VT - NOT LIKELY

7 posted on 11/08/2004 5:52:50 PM PST by TeemuSan

Corzine won't be there. He's running for gov. of NJ, will win after spending the equivalent of a dinner and movie for each voter's vote, and will pick his own replacement.

On the upside, Corzine headed the 2004 Democrat Congressional Committee's Senate re-election team. With him gone, the Dem's will be calling up an even less talented B-teamer to take the reins.

8 posted on 11/08/2004 6:08:38 PM PST by JerseyHighlander

"What do we know about these Senators and they're chances of re-election?"

Very early, but here's what appears likely:

AKAKA-Probably retires, and 'Rats have a fierce primary between anti-Machine Congressman Ed Case and Dan Inouye protoge' ex-General Eric Shineski. The winner of the primary will be Senator.

BINGAMAN-Favored to win, but not assured of reelection. Most likely opponent is Congresswoman Heather Wilson of Albequerque.

BYRD-Safe if he runs, but probably retires. Too soon to say who'll run, but 'Rats will have a multi-candidate primary for this once-in-a-lifetime chance. Republicans could win if Congresswoman Shelley Moore runs.

CANTWELL-Could face a tough race against state Senator Dino Rossi, unless he pulls ahead in the current Governor's race. If he doesn't run, look for George "The Weasel" Nethercutt to run and lose again.

CARPER-Favored but not secure. Ex-judge William Lee would be a viable candidate if he ran. Congressman Mike Castle is not interested.

CLINTON-Governor George Pataki is the name most mentioned, with Rudy Guiliani succeeding him as Governor. Leans to Clinton, but she's polarizing.

CONRAD-Safe

CORZINE-Won last time by less than expected. Depends partly on whether he's elected Governor next year.

DAYTON-A socialist socialite, and daffy to boot. Congressman Mark Kennedy the most likely to run, and would have at least a 50/50 chance.

FEINSTEIN-Safe if she runs, but she'll be 73. If she does retire, get used to the term "Senator Terminator."

KENNEDY-Safe if he runs, but he'll be 74 with no real prospects of being in the majority. If he retires, expect a wide-open 'Rat field, with Pubbies running ex-Governor Paul Cellucci.

KOHL-Ex-Governor Tommy Thompson would have a shot, but against anyone else, Herb "Fort Knox" Kohl is safe.

LEIBERMAN-Safe.

NELSON (Ben)-Will probably be defeated by term-limited Governor Mike Johanns.

NELSON (Bill)-Lots of Pubbies looking at this race, which could go either way.

SARBANES-Safe if he ran, but will be 73 with no recent prospect of being in the majority after 30 years. If he does retire, Congressman Ben Cardin will run, and possibly face Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele.

STABENOW-Marginally favored to win, but not secure. Really depends on the Pubbie nominee. Congressman Mike Rogers is a possibility.

9 posted on 11/08/2004 6:20:51 PM PST by Clintonfatigued

To: Clintonfatigued

Feinstein is running for re-election according to her spokesman. She is afraid of Arnold. Rep. Mark Kenneddy will take on the Cowardly Lion Dayton. Stabenow is vulnerble, maybe Candace Miller. Cantwell is in big trouble if Dino Rossi gets ripped of in The Governor's race.
New Jersey is the most politically corrupt state in the nation, so even if Corzine retires it will be tough unless Whitman runs. I believe the big battle will be Ben Nelson (D-Neb)vs. Governor Johanns and Bill Nelson (D-FLA) versus Katherine Harris. The RNC owes her big time from her couragious stand in 2000. She gets a blank check against the boring Astronaut.

10 posted on 11/14/2004 12:24:05 PM PST by Jack Ian

To: chiller; Kuksool; AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; William Creel; zbigreddogz; JohnnyZ; ...

Here's my take at this point:

Jon Kyl (R-AZ)--'Rats have an outside chance if they nominate a credible nominee.

Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)--Will win if she runs, which she probably will.

Joe Leiberman (D-CT)--Safe, though he may face primary opposition from the anti-war left.

Tom Carper (D-DE)--Solid favorite, though not assured of reelection. State Senator Colin Bonini may run.

Bill Nelson (D-FL)--Is definitely vulnerable, but not a pushover. And the potential opponents (Dave Welborn, Mark Foley, Cliff Stearns, Connie Mack IV) are second-tier.

Dan Akaka (D-HI)--Will win if he runs, but will be 83. If he retires, look for a priamry between ex General Eric Shiniski and Congressman Ed Case, with the victor favored in the general.

Dan Lugar (R-IN)--Safe.

Olympia Snowe (R-ME)--Safe.

Paul Sarbanes (D-MD)--Looking more & more like he'll retire. Some think that Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Mally will run if that happens. If so, he'll probably win.

Ted Kennedy (D-MA)--Republicans had their one chance in 1994, but William Weld wouldn't run. Safe.

Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)--Is showing more strength than expected, and several Republicans have backed down. Right now, Detroit Councilman Keith Butler is the only candidate.

Mark Dayton (D-MN)--Ditsy socialite socialist Dayton saw the writing on the wall, and it said "loser", so he's retiring. The Republicans will run Mark Kennedy, while the 'Rat field is still undetermined.

Trent Lott (R-MS)--Was expected to retire, but now looks like he'll run. Safe.

Jim Talent (R-MO)--a very narrow winner in a special election, Talent is an obvious target. It's not clear who will run, though state Auditor Clare McGaskill is a possibility.

Conrad Burns (D-MT)--Aging and a narrow winner last time, Burns is a target. State Attorney General Mike McGrath may run, and would be Burns' toughest opponent ever.

Ben Nelson (D-NE)--Moderate Nelson will be tough to beat now that Michael Johanns is out of the running. Still, the G.O.P. has a shot in this very Republican state.

John Ensigh (R-NV)--safe.

Jon Corzine (D-NJ)--when Corzine is elected governor, he's expected to appoint a caretaker who won't seek reelection. Congressmen Bob Menendez, Frank Pallone, and perhaps Rob Andrews are possible candidates. Republicans will probably run RINO state Senator Tom Keane, Jr.

Jeff Bingaman (D-NM)--probably safe. State Rep. Dan Finley may run.

Hillary Clinton (D-NY)--Favored, though not a sure thing. With Gov. George Pataki backing away as his popularity wanes, some Republicans are quietly pushing for Westchester D.A. Jeanne Pirro. If she does, this will be the marquee race of the year, though Clinton should win.

Conrad Burns (D-ND)--Karl Rove wants popular Gov. John Hoeven to run, and Hoeven hasn't ruled it out. State Attorney General Wayne Stenhjam would be the second choice. But it's worth noting that the G.O.P. has a history of false starts in Senate recruitments in this state.

Mike DeWine (R-OH)--probably safe.

Rick Santorum (R-PA)--Santorum has a bullseye on his back. If state Treasurer Bob Casey runs, 'Rat chances of a pick-up are at least 50-50. But Casey may very well get primary opposition from the left, which could cause him unforseen probelms in the general.

Lincoln Chafee (R-RI)--the most liberal RINO in the Senate and less than spellbinding as a person, Chafee faces potential opposition from all sides. Liberal Secretary of State Matt Brown is already in the running, and pro-life liberal Rep. James Langevin looks likely to run. He may also get pro-life primary opposition from Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey, who can point to his record of winning cross-over voters in his reelection.

Bill Frist (R-TN)--retiring. Conservative ex-Congressman Ed Bryant and Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker are running for the G.O.P. nod already running, with ex-Congressman Van Hilleary and state Rep. Beth Harwell (also strong conservatives) considering candidacies. Conservatives are lukewarm about Corker, and he would be favored if the field becomes crowded. On the 'Rat side, Congressman Harold Ford is the likely though not certain nominee.

Kay Hutchison (R-TX)--safe if she runs, but she may return to Texas. If so, Congressman Henry Bonilla, Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst, and state Attorney General Greg Abbot possible G.O.P. contenders. Whoever wins that primary is favored, and the 'Rat contenders are uncertain for now.

Orrin Hatch (R-UT)--Safe, though he may face primary opposition from wealthy businessman Fred Lampropoulos, who considers Hatch too accomodating to Senate 'Rats.

Jim Jeffords (ID-VT)--Probably safe.

George Allen (R-VA)--If Governor Mark Warner runs, Allen is in for a very tough campaign. A poll showed Warner with a slim lead, though the poll's credibility is questionable.

Maria Cantwell (D-WA)--Won the closest Senate election in state history. It would be ironic if she faced state Senator Dino Rossi, who appears to have been cheated out of an ever more narrow victory. But Rossi is challenging the outcome of that race and seems uninterested in chalenging Cantwell.

Robert Byrd (D-WV)--In West Virginia, opposing Byrd is like opposing a dotty but beloved great grandfather. Safe.

Herbert Kohl (D-WI)--The Daddy Warbucks of Wisconsin is more likely than not to run and win. Ex-HHS Secretary/ex-Governor Tommy Thompson is the strongest possible opponent, but his level of interest is not clear.

Craig Thomas (R-WY)--safe if he runs.

12 posted on 02/26/2005 10:45:27 PM PST by Clintonfatigued

Dayton isn't running again. So nomatter what happens there, don't have to worry about him sticking around.

Early indicators seem to suggest that the Dems are likely to gain a seat or two. They seem to be doing an excellent job of recruiting, and so far, we don't.

We have Gov. Hoeven in North Dakota, that's good, and Mark Kennedy in Minnesota, that's also good, but we have several potentially competitive races that aren't looking good now.

In Michigan, Candice Miller nor John Engler seem to want to run, Bush strangely appointed Mike Johannas to be Secretary of Agriculture, when he was thinking of running for Senate, and Tom Osborn doesn't seem to watn to run. Jeb doesn't want to run for Senate in Florida, which seems unfortunate, although we probably will have a strong challenger there, it might not be strong enough.

Also, we have some vulnerable seats in Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and Rhode Island (although losing Rhode Island to a pro-life dem might not even be that bad for Conservatives, although I wouldn't want to lose it to a nutcase dem like Patrick Kennedy.) And at least in Tennessee, it's gonna be a heck of a race, because I'm not too crazy about either of the announced candidates, and Harold Ford is the best candidate they have IMHO.

Overall, we need to get our recruiting butts in gear.

13 posted on 02/27/2005 12:55:46 AM PST by zbigreddogz

To: Tennessean4Bush

Bingaman, Jeff , NM - probably safe, but depends on who Republicans run against him.

He's safe. Even with the right R, it's the lightest red state, and he's fairly popular.

Byrd, Robert , WV - safe

True, but we might win the seat if he retires, which I don't expect.

Cantwell, Maria , WA - safe

Potentially vulnerable. I live in Washington, and the recent governor's election might have soured folks enough on the D's that we might have a chance with the right candidate. I know the White House has been doing recruiting work for this race, they think it's doable. I'm cautiously pessimistic, but it isn't completley safe.

Carper, Thomas , DE - safe

Yes, unless the lone Rep from Delaware runs, he's an R, and could win. That said, he's shown no signs that he wants to run.

Clinton, Hillary , NY - Possible pickup, but depends on who Republicans run against her. If Guiliani, he wins easily. If Pataki, may be close. I don't have a good read on how NYers feel about Pataki.

Pataki would lose. Giuliani would win, but he doesn't seem to want to run unforunately. I really wish he would run for either Governor or Senate in '06, but I'm afraid he wants to go for President, and as much as I admire the man, I wouldn't be able to vote for him in the primary.

Conrad, Kent , ND - probably safe, but depends on who Republicans run against him.

Not safe at all. Governor John Hoeven is almost certainly running, and he just won his last election with 70% of the vote if I'm not mistaken. Look for this to be very competative, especially if Conrad votes for fillibusters.

Corzine, Jon , NJ - safe

Yes, but he's running for Governor. Assuming he wins that, who knows? Maybe he'll appoint Torecelli! :)

Dayton, Mark , MN - possible pickup, he is quite whacky apparently. As always it depends on who Republicans run against him.

He's not running again, and Rep. Mark Kennedy, who has won 3 VERY difficult elections to the house in two almost completley different districts, is running for the open seat. This is easily our biggest hope of a pickup in a blue state.

Feinstein, Dianne , CA - safe

Yes, if she runs. It's potentially competetive if she doesn't, but I doubt she'll retire, and I doubt it'll be competative even if she does, but it's not impossible. In a perfect world, she runs again, and then in 6 years, Arnold runs!

Kennedy, Edward , MA - safe

Yep.

Kohl, Herb , WI - probably safe, but depends on who Republicans run against him.

He's safe if he runs, no strong R will run against him. There are rumors of retirement, and Thommy Thompson might run if he doesn't.

Lieberman, Joseph , CN - safe

Yep, totally safe in the general. I am wondering if some credible D will run in the primary though.

Nelson, Ben , NE - probably safe, he usually stays fairly conservative.

He wouldn't be safe, but Bush appointed Mike Johanns to Sec. of Ag., and Tom Osborn doesn't seem to want to run. Either would have a strong chance against him.

Nelson, Bill , FL - probably safe, but not sure who Republicans have to run against him

Not safe at all. He only got 51% in 2000, and there are a bunch of potential candidates. If W can talk his brother into running, Jeb will SMASH him. Kathryn Harris, either of the Diaz-Bartlet brothers could win, as well as the state AG, and several others. His approval ratings are halfway decent, but his re-elect numbers are pathetic.

Sarbanes, Paul , MD - safe

Yes, but, again, he's old and may retire. If he does, and Mike Steele runs, we will have a race on our hands.

Stabenow, Debbie , MI - safe

Not even remotely with the right candidate. Candice Miller, former Secretary of State and current congresswoman would be a great challenger, but it looks like she's not running. John Engler would also make a strong challenger, but has shown no signs of wanting to run. If either of them change their mind, this will be a very competative race. Even if they don't, there are other challengers that could present a problem. Wait and see on this one.

14 posted on 02/27/2005 1:08:41 AM PST by zbigreddogz

At the rate the Democrats are falling, by the end of the 2006 election, the party of "no" will become the party of "gone".

15 posted on 02/27/2005 1:28:52 AM PST by Paul C. Jesup

Some of 'em are going bye-bye.

16 posted on 02/27/2005 1:32:13 AM PST by Bullish

To: Clintonfatigued

The RATS efforts to change their stance abortion will fall flat. In PA and RI, I expect the pro-life RATS, expressing interest in Senate runs, will lose in the primaries. The 527's and the MSM will not stand for RAT candidates to deviate from the Feminazi doctrine.

17 posted on 02/27/2005 6:44:36 AM PST by Kuksool (Principles Mean Nothing Without Political Power)

To: Clintonfatigued

Here are my comments to your thoughts on the 2006 Senate races:

"Jon Kyl (R-AZ)--'Rats have an outside chance if they nominate a credible nominee."

I don't think any Democrat would give Kyl a run for his money. Safe Republican.

"Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)--Will win if she runs, which she probably will."

Unfortunately, I agree on both counts. However, if she ran for the governorship instead, we might stand an outside chance.

"Joe Leiberman (D-CT)--Safe, though he may face primary opposition from the anti-war left."

I agree that Lieberman likely won't lose a general election in CT, but I don't think he has much to worry about in a primary, either. My preferred strategy for conservatives in CT is to convince RINO Congressman Chris Shays to run against Lieberman and thus allow a less liberal (and less obnoxious) Republican to represent the 4th CD.

"Tom Carper (D-DE)--Solid favorite, though not assured of reelection. State Senator Colin Bonini may run."

I think our only chance would be if Congressman (and former Governor) Mike Castle runs, but Castle seems comfy in the House.

"Bill Nelson (D-FL)--Is definitely vulnerable, but not a pushover. And the potential opponents (Dave Welborn, Mark Foley, Cliff Stearns, Connie Mack IV) are second-tier."

Actually, I think that Congressman David Weldon (not Welborn) would be a pretty good candidate, as would Congresswoman Katherine Harris. But my #1 choice, of course, would be Jeb Bush. Jeb would beat Nelson like a rented mule.

"Dan Akaka (D-HI)--Will win if he runs, but will be 83. If he retires, look for a priamry between ex General Eric Shiniski and Congressman Ed Case, with the victor favored in the general."

If Akaka retires, I think at least one top-tier Asian-American candidate (maybe former Governor Cayetano or 2002 gubernatorial nominee Mazie Hirono or Lt. Gov. nominee Matt Matsunaga) would face Congressman Case in the Democrat primary. And I wouldn't count out Republican Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona, who is a Native Hawaiian, in the general election if Akaka retired.

"Dan Lugar (R-IN)--Safe."

Agreed. He's a Senator-for-life.

"Olympia Snowe (R-ME)--Safe."

I don't think she'll face anyone very good, so Snowe will almost certainly win going away.

"Paul Sarbanes (D-MD)--Looking more & more like he'll retire. Some think that Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Mally will run if that happens. If so, he'll probably win."

Mayor O'Malley wants to be governor, so I don't think he'll run for the Senate even if Sarbanes retires (which I agree is becoming more likely). Former Congressman and ex-NAACP President Kweisi Mfume has not been shy about wanting to run, and he'll be tough to beat in the RAT primary, since blacks comprise over 40% of the Democrat primary electorate in MD. I think the best possible GOP candidate would be Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, although he may prefer to run for reelection. I hope Steele runs for the Senate, though, since he would stand an excellent chance of defeating Mfume or whoever else runs in an open-seat situation.

"Ted Kennedy (D-MA)--Republicans had their one chance in 1994, but William Weld wouldn't run. Safe."

Governor Weld was running for reelection in 1994, so it didn't make sense for him to run then. But I agree that so long as Kennedy keeps running, he will keep winning, and I'm certain that he'll run again.

"Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)--Is showing more strength than expected, and several Republicans have backed down. Right now, Detroit Councilman Keith Butler is the only candidate."

I think there are a couple of other announced candidates, but former Detroit Councilman Butler is our best candidate so far. If Congressmen Rogers or Miller won't run, it will be tough to beat Stabenow, with former Governor Engler being a wildcard in all this.

"Mark Dayton (D-MN)--Ditsy socialite socialist Dayton saw the writing on the wall, and it said "loser", so he's retiring. The Republicans will run Mark Kennedy, while the 'Rat field is still undetermined."

Did Congressman Guttnecht drop out of the race? I hope so, since Mark Kennedy is better known in the Twin Cities metro area and would probably have a better chance to win. I'd like to avoid a bloody primary in MN.

"Trent Lott (R-MS)--Was expected to retire, but now looks like he'll run. Safe."

Even if Lott retires, Republican Congressman Chip Pickering would be a shoo-in to succeed him. The only MS Democrat who could possibly make a race of it is Congressman Gene Taylor, and I don't think he'll ever leave his House seat.

"Jim Talent (R-MO)--a very narrow winner in a special election, Talent is an obvious target. It's not clear who will run, though state Auditor Clare McGaskill is a possibility."

Not too many MO Democrats have shown an interest in this race. Talent is favored, although it may not be a picnic.

"Conrad Burns (D-MT)--Aging and a narrow winner last time, Burns is a target. State Attorney General Mike McGrath may run, and would be Burns' toughest opponent ever."

I think Burns's toughest opponent ever was Schweitzer in 2000, who proved he was no flash-in-the-pan by winning the governorship in 2004. The way I see it, if Montanans haven't voted out Max Baucus because of his seniority, they won't vote ou Conrad Burns either.

"Ben Nelson (D-NE)--Moderate Nelson will be tough to beat now that Michael Johanns is out of the running. Still, the G.O.P. has a shot in this very Republican state."

All the GOP needs is a candidate and Ben Nelson is toast. In fact, I still think there's a better-than-even chance that Ben Nelson will switch to the GOP within the next year.

"John Ensigh (R-NV)--safe."

NV is a swing state, but I don't think anyone good will be willing to take on the very popular Senator Ensign.

"Jon Corzine (D-NJ)--when Corzine is elected governor, he's expected to appoint a caretaker who won't seek reelection. Congressmen Bob Menendez, Frank Pallone, and perhaps Rob Andrews are possible candidates. Republicans will probably run RINO state Senator Tom Keane, Jr."

I think Corzine is the frontrunner for the governorship, but I wouldn't mail it in just yet---remember, Corzine nearly ended up losing in 2000 even though Gore was carrying the state by over 15%. If Corzine wins, I think he'll appoint Menendez, and there will be many prominent Republicans in the running for the Senate nomination: I think the two most interesting choices would be South Jersey Congressman Frank LoBiondo (who is pro-life but is rather moderate on some other issues) and publisher Steve Forbes.

"Jeff Bingaman (D-NM)--probably safe. State Rep. Dan Finley may run."

If Bingaman runs, he'll almost certainly win, even if Congresswoman Wilson runs for the GOP. But if Bingaman retires, as some have suggested, then I think we'll see Wilson against Congressman Tom Udall in a very competitive general-election matchup.

"Hillary Clinton (D-NY)--Favored, though not a sure thing. With Gov. George Pataki backing away as his popularity wanes, some Republicans are quietly pushing for Westchester D.A. Jeanne Pirro. If she does, this will be the marquee race of the year, though Clinton should win."

Unless Rudy runs, I think Hillary will win.

"Conrad Burns (D-ND)--Karl Rove wants popular Gov. John Hoeven to run, and Hoeven hasn't ruled it out. State Attorney General Wayne Stenhjam would be the second choice. But it's worth noting that the G.O.P. has a history of false starts in Senate recruitments in this state."

Obviously, you meant Kent Conrad. If either Governor Hoeven or ex-Governor Shaefer run, we have an excellent chance of winning; if not, it will be difficult to knock off Conrad. My preference would be for Hoeven to run for the Senate (Shaefer had his chance against Senator Dorgan last year, and he passed it up) and Stenhjam to run for the House against Pomeroy; if Stenhjam beats Pomeroy, he can use his 4 years of experience as a Congressman to run against Dorgan in 2010 and complete the Dakota sweep for the GOP (we would also need SD Governor Rounds to beat Tim Johnson in 2008).

"Mike DeWine (R-OH)--probably safe."

Hmm, I'm not so sure. DeWine has been rumored to be thinking about running for Governor, which would be terrible, since we need him to hold his Senate seat and we need Secretary of State Ken Blackwell to become Ohio's next governor. But if DeWine runs for reelection, I don't think any of the prominent Democrats (e.g., Congressmen Sherrod Brown and Ted Strickland) will take the risk of running against DeWine.

"Rick Santorum (R-PA)--Santorum has a bullseye on his back. If state Treasurer Bob Casey runs, 'Rat chances of a pick-up are at least 50-50. But Casey may very well get primary opposition from the left, which could cause him unforseen probelms in the general."

I think you're overstating Casey's odds of defeating Santorum. At the end of the day, Santorum will win 52%-47%, with Casey running rather poorly in the Philly suburbs.

"Lincoln Chafee (R-RI)--the most liberal RINO in the Senate and less than spellbinding as a person, Chafee faces potential opposition from all sides. Liberal Secretary of State Matt Brown is already in the running, and pro-life liberal Rep. James Langevin looks likely to run. He may also get pro-life primary opposition from Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey, who can point to his record of winning cross-over voters in his reelection."

As I've written before ( http://dalythoughts.com/index.php?p=2827 ), I think we should try to "convince" Lincoln Chafee to join the Democrats, since Mayor Laffey and any other Republican would have a good chance of defeating Chafee but not much of a chance of defeating Congressman Langevin. Plus, as I explained in the link, having Chafee officially join the RATs would allow the GOP to gain two Senators in each committee in which Chafee sits, so it would benefit us right away.

"Bill Frist (R-TN)--retiring. Conservative ex-Congressman Ed Bryant and Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker are running for the G.O.P. nod already running, with ex-Congressman Van Hilleary and state Rep. Beth Harwell (also strong conservatives) considering candidacies. Conservatives are lukewarm about Corker, and he would be favored if the field becomes crowded. On the 'Rat side, Congressman Harold Ford is the likely though not certain nominee."

I think Hilleary will sit out the race and allow Bryant to win the nomination (at least I certainly hope he does) and Bryant will beat Ford by at least 54%-46%.

"Kay Hutchison (R-TX)--safe if she runs, but she may return to Texas. If so, Congressman Henry Bonilla, Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst, and state Attorney General Greg Abbot possible G.O.P. contenders. Whoever wins that primary is favored, and the 'Rat contenders are uncertain for now."

The Democrats have a lot of candidates from among the defeated congressmen of last year, but the GOP is clearly favored even in an open-seat scenario. I hope Hutchison steps down and Henry Bonilla becomes the next Senator from Texas.

"Orrin Hatch (R-UT)--Safe, though he may face primary opposition from wealthy businessman Fred Lampropoulos, who considers Hatch too accomodating to Senate 'Rats."

Hatch will breeze through both the primary and the general.

"Jim Jeffords (ID-VT)--Probably safe."

Our best chance is if the Democrats run a candidate (and maybe the Progressives and Greens as well) and allow a Republican to win with under 40%. Lt. Gov. Dubie might be our best bet, since Gov. Douglas won't challenge Jeffords.

"George Allen (R-VA)--If Governor Mark Warner runs, Allen is in for a very tough campaign. A poll showed Warner with a slim lead, though the poll's credibility is questionable."

The poll is bogus, but an Allen-Warner race may go down to the wire.

"Maria Cantwell (D-WA)--Won the closest Senate election in state history. It would be ironic if she faced state Senator Dino Rossi, who appears to have been cheated out of an ever more narrow victory. But Rossi is challenging the outcome of that race and seems uninterested in chalenging Cantwell."

If Rossi decides to take on Cantwell, I think he has an excellent chance. But if not, our bench isn't very deep, unless Jennifer Dunn comes out of retirement. If not, who else: Nethercutt again?

"Robert Byrd (D-WV)--In West Virginia, opposing Byrd is like opposing a dotty but beloved great grandfather. Safe."

I'm hoping that Byrd will finally retire, but he will likely stay on until he dies on the floor of the Senate (it would be fitting if it occurred while filibustering a black conservative nominee).

"Herbert Kohl (D-WI)--The Daddy Warbucks of Wisconsin is more likely than not to run and win. Ex-HHS Secretary/ex-Governor Tommy Thompson is the strongest possible opponent, but his level of interest is not clear."

If Kohl retires, there are several Republicans who would be favored in the general election, most prominently Congressmen Ryan and Green (although Green may run for governor). If Kohl doesn't retire, it may be difficult to recruit someone to take on the über-rich Kohl.

"Craig Thomas (R-WY)--safe if he runs. "

I don't see why he would give up a safe Senate seat that he can hold for the next 20 years, but then again maybe he'll surprise everyone and pull a Dirk Kempthorne and run for the governorship (unlikely, though).

18 posted on 02/28/2005 12:57:05 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)

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