I'd sure like to see Dayton bested. This Limousine Liberal seems as dumb as a dirt clod. (His Target stores are dropping like flies in IN. 3 this week) what's his connection there, anyhow?
You really are a political junkie. Me, I'm not thinking about the next election for at least the next 3 or 4 days.
Corzine won't be there. He's running for gov. of NJ, will win after spending the equivalent of a dinner and movie for each voter's vote, and will pick his own replacement.
On the upside, Corzine headed the 2004 Democrat Congressional Committee's Senate re-election team. With him gone, the Dem's will be calling up an even less talented B-teamer to take the reins.
"What do we know about these Senators and they're chances of re-election?"
Very early, but here's what appears likely:
AKAKA-Probably retires, and 'Rats have a fierce primary between anti-Machine Congressman Ed Case and Dan Inouye protoge' ex-General Eric Shineski. The winner of the primary will be Senator.
BINGAMAN-Favored to win, but not assured of reelection. Most likely opponent is Congresswoman Heather Wilson of Albequerque.
BYRD-Safe if he runs, but probably retires. Too soon to say who'll run, but 'Rats will have a multi-candidate primary for this once-in-a-lifetime chance. Republicans could win if Congresswoman Shelley Moore runs.
CANTWELL-Could face a tough race against state Senator Dino Rossi, unless he pulls ahead in the current Governor's race. If he doesn't run, look for George "The Weasel" Nethercutt to run and lose again.
CARPER-Favored but not secure. Ex-judge William Lee would be a viable candidate if he ran. Congressman Mike Castle is not interested.
CLINTON-Governor George Pataki is the name most mentioned, with Rudy Guiliani succeeding him as Governor. Leans to Clinton, but she's polarizing.
CONRAD-Safe
CORZINE-Won last time by less than expected. Depends partly on whether he's elected Governor next year.
DAYTON-A socialist socialite, and daffy to boot. Congressman Mark Kennedy the most likely to run, and would have at least a 50/50 chance.
FEINSTEIN-Safe if she runs, but she'll be 73. If she does retire, get used to the term "Senator Terminator."
KENNEDY-Safe if he runs, but he'll be 74 with no real prospects of being in the majority. If he retires, expect a wide-open 'Rat field, with Pubbies running ex-Governor Paul Cellucci.
KOHL-Ex-Governor Tommy Thompson would have a shot, but against anyone else, Herb "Fort Knox" Kohl is safe.
LEIBERMAN-Safe.
NELSON (Ben)-Will probably be defeated by term-limited Governor Mike Johanns.
NELSON (Bill)-Lots of Pubbies looking at this race, which could go either way.
SARBANES-Safe if he ran, but will be 73 with no recent prospect of being in the majority after 30 years. If he does retire, Congressman Ben Cardin will run, and possibly face Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele.
STABENOW-Marginally favored to win, but not secure. Really depends on the Pubbie nominee. Congressman Mike Rogers is a possibility.
Here's my take at this point:
Jon Kyl (R-AZ)--'Rats have an outside chance if they nominate a credible nominee.
Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)--Will win if she runs, which she probably will.
Joe Leiberman (D-CT)--Safe, though he may face primary opposition from the anti-war left.
Tom Carper (D-DE)--Solid favorite, though not assured of reelection. State Senator Colin Bonini may run.
Bill Nelson (D-FL)--Is definitely vulnerable, but not a pushover. And the potential opponents (Dave Welborn, Mark Foley, Cliff Stearns, Connie Mack IV) are second-tier.
Dan Akaka (D-HI)--Will win if he runs, but will be 83. If he retires, look for a priamry between ex General Eric Shiniski and Congressman Ed Case, with the victor favored in the general.
Dan Lugar (R-IN)--Safe.
Olympia Snowe (R-ME)--Safe.
Paul Sarbanes (D-MD)--Looking more & more like he'll retire. Some think that Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Mally will run if that happens. If so, he'll probably win.
Ted Kennedy (D-MA)--Republicans had their one chance in 1994, but William Weld wouldn't run. Safe.
Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)--Is showing more strength than expected, and several Republicans have backed down. Right now, Detroit Councilman Keith Butler is the only candidate.
Mark Dayton (D-MN)--Ditsy socialite socialist Dayton saw the writing on the wall, and it said "loser", so he's retiring. The Republicans will run Mark Kennedy, while the 'Rat field is still undetermined.
Trent Lott (R-MS)--Was expected to retire, but now looks like he'll run. Safe.
Jim Talent (R-MO)--a very narrow winner in a special election, Talent is an obvious target. It's not clear who will run, though state Auditor Clare McGaskill is a possibility.
Conrad Burns (D-MT)--Aging and a narrow winner last time, Burns is a target. State Attorney General Mike McGrath may run, and would be Burns' toughest opponent ever.
Ben Nelson (D-NE)--Moderate Nelson will be tough to beat now that Michael Johanns is out of the running. Still, the G.O.P. has a shot in this very Republican state.
John Ensigh (R-NV)--safe.
Jon Corzine (D-NJ)--when Corzine is elected governor, he's expected to appoint a caretaker who won't seek reelection. Congressmen Bob Menendez, Frank Pallone, and perhaps Rob Andrews are possible candidates. Republicans will probably run RINO state Senator Tom Keane, Jr.
Jeff Bingaman (D-NM)--probably safe. State Rep. Dan Finley may run.
Hillary Clinton (D-NY)--Favored, though not a sure thing. With Gov. George Pataki backing away as his popularity wanes, some Republicans are quietly pushing for Westchester D.A. Jeanne Pirro. If she does, this will be the marquee race of the year, though Clinton should win.
Conrad Burns (D-ND)--Karl Rove wants popular Gov. John Hoeven to run, and Hoeven hasn't ruled it out. State Attorney General Wayne Stenhjam would be the second choice. But it's worth noting that the G.O.P. has a history of false starts in Senate recruitments in this state.
Mike DeWine (R-OH)--probably safe.
Rick Santorum (R-PA)--Santorum has a bullseye on his back. If state Treasurer Bob Casey runs, 'Rat chances of a pick-up are at least 50-50. But Casey may very well get primary opposition from the left, which could cause him unforseen probelms in the general.
Lincoln Chafee (R-RI)--the most liberal RINO in the Senate and less than spellbinding as a person, Chafee faces potential opposition from all sides. Liberal Secretary of State Matt Brown is already in the running, and pro-life liberal Rep. James Langevin looks likely to run. He may also get pro-life primary opposition from Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey, who can point to his record of winning cross-over voters in his reelection.
Bill Frist (R-TN)--retiring. Conservative ex-Congressman Ed Bryant and Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker are running for the G.O.P. nod already running, with ex-Congressman Van Hilleary and state Rep. Beth Harwell (also strong conservatives) considering candidacies. Conservatives are lukewarm about Corker, and he would be favored if the field becomes crowded. On the 'Rat side, Congressman Harold Ford is the likely though not certain nominee.
Kay Hutchison (R-TX)--safe if she runs, but she may return to Texas. If so, Congressman Henry Bonilla, Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst, and state Attorney General Greg Abbot possible G.O.P. contenders. Whoever wins that primary is favored, and the 'Rat contenders are uncertain for now.
Orrin Hatch (R-UT)--Safe, though he may face primary opposition from wealthy businessman Fred Lampropoulos, who considers Hatch too accomodating to Senate 'Rats.
Jim Jeffords (ID-VT)--Probably safe.
George Allen (R-VA)--If Governor Mark Warner runs, Allen is in for a very tough campaign. A poll showed Warner with a slim lead, though the poll's credibility is questionable.
Maria Cantwell (D-WA)--Won the closest Senate election in state history. It would be ironic if she faced state Senator Dino Rossi, who appears to have been cheated out of an ever more narrow victory. But Rossi is challenging the outcome of that race and seems uninterested in chalenging Cantwell.
Robert Byrd (D-WV)--In West Virginia, opposing Byrd is like opposing a dotty but beloved great grandfather. Safe.
Herbert Kohl (D-WI)--The Daddy Warbucks of Wisconsin is more likely than not to run and win. Ex-HHS Secretary/ex-Governor Tommy Thompson is the strongest possible opponent, but his level of interest is not clear.
Craig Thomas (R-WY)--safe if he runs.
At the rate the Democrats are falling, by the end of the 2006 election, the party of "no" will become the party of "gone".
Some of 'em are going bye-bye.