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Locked on 11/02/2004 1:44:41 PM PST by Sidebar Moderator, reason:
Duplicate http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1266766/posts |
Posted on 11/02/2004 12:10:05 PM PST by disraeligears
If this is true don't sweat it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
yes yes.. bad news is good news. mustnt look at reality or be called a troll by the weak personalities in here. thats whats important.. standing strong pc for the insecure oldbie clods. any realistic pessimism voiced over the past months has been met by the frail oldbies calling the newly registered names. doesnt matter if we lose as long as the oldbies' sensibilities are intact.
it isnt the entire rest of the world and half the population of the usa that are screwed up.. its the entire rest of the world and 80% of the usa. should w lose troll police will be part of the reason. but as long as they can type "posted twice already" they wont even know it.
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That's why my SIL is wrestling with who to vote for. She believes in the right to choose. But, she waid whe'd vote Bush because she doesn't like Kerry at all.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1266791/posts
DO NOT POST EXIT POLLING "DATA" PLEASE. NOT YET. EARLY SAMPLING IS NOTORIOUSLY UNRELIABLE.
Admin Moderator | 11/2
Posted on 11/02/2004 2:12:59 PM CST by Admin Moderator
Case in point, from Drudge website: Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday afternoon after first wave of morning data showed Kerry competitive in key states.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio, sources tell DRUDGE... But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio...
yes.. anyone who disagrees with your ill founded optimism is a cry-baby. we righties got the brains on our side!
As the billboards say:
"When women vote, Democrats are elected."
it's 3:2 women sampled. What is the gendergap generally accepted at? 2? 4? pts? we can reverse this statistic by allowing for this skewed sampling.
Got the answer for you
If you scaled the women ratio down to fifty. Then support for kerry goes down by the same constant.
EX 1: 59 women to 50 Women %18 loss
Multiply Support for Kerry by %82 and you get this
If Exit poll was 50-50 woman/man with same vote ratio as this poll then..
K= 43.2 B= 46.8
***NOTE This is just a mathematical adjustment***
Schools should show some of the new 3-D Ultrasound that shows that bunch of cells sucking it's thumb and other things after a very short time... why not abstain or use birth control -- abortions are not birth control.
Wonder how many abortions have taken place since the war in Iraq began. Everyone is concerned about that loss of life (rightly so) but not the much larger number of abortions in the same time.
****CORRECTION TO MY PREVIOUS POST*****
Got the answer for you
If you scaled the women ratio down to fifty. Then support for kerry goes down by the same constant.
EX 1: 59 women to 50 Women %18 loss
Multiply Support for Kerry by %82 and you get this
If Exit poll was 50-50 woman/man with same vote ratio as this poll then..
K= 43.2 B= 56.8
***NOTE This is just a mathematical adjustment***
it depends on the male.female turnout ratio. If female turnout is higher, it could be representative.
Why would ANY Female vote for Kerry???
not me, i'm a female, and a Bush voter, so are all my female friends.
I agree.. my above post is only an adjustment to reflect an equal turnout based on the slanted exit poll. It was supposed to answer post#13.
:-)
I think there are many here that despite the turnout ratio, the sample must be 50/50. That wouldn't be representative. And the early return exit polls may be just as much in error.
true.. i know turnout will play a HUGE factor...
this was simply to fix the 59-41 disparity as requested by post #13
:-)
Thanks, that helps a lot. Also remember that AP is reporting all this, and they are the same bunch that made up the BOOs at the Bush rally when Clinton was named (racine wisconsin). In simple words, they are AS reliable as cBS or the NYT.
No problem...
Ive been proudly volunteering as a
Disabled Combat Vet for Bush (afghanistan and Iraq)
what gender gap ratio did you use? It's not as high as it was in 2k, but I haven't found what it's around for this election.
Duh :)
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