Replies

Rick,

Matapam on TB asked this question (could not get into freepers due to cookies and asked someone to post this question to you):

"Could you ask him if Itokawa is associated with any meteor activity, such as the Sagittarids, or if he knows a site with detailed info to research that question?"

His question is posted on a private member only area - so I'm not sure how you would answer him/her unless your a member there?

You can private email me and I will forward.

Date of first impact as predicted by Aussie Bloak (June 18-20) is close to the splash down mentioned in the Snowball Net transmission which works out to be June 21 (longest day of the year). Keep in mind that Australia is on the other side of the international dateline.

Unusual coincidence or maybe just a coordinated hoax?

"Could you ask him if Itokawa is associated with any meteor activity, such as the Sagittarids, or if he knows a site with detailed info to research that question?"

I assume he was referring to me, to ask the question?

To the BEST of my knowledge, almost every meteor shower we experience is associated with comets, not asteroids. Comets' nature being what they are, pieces of them tend to break off, and mostly small pieces about the size of sand grains. When we see meteor showers, we're usually seeing I think, what's left of the comet's tail.

I am not a memory bucket so I usually have to look things up regarding data on various pieces of rocks in the sky, and and Itokawa is no exception. It's a NEA which will pass roughly .013AU (1.95 million km, or about 1.17 million miles) from Earth. I don't have the tools at work to work out its orbit at the moment (though I hear there are some good tools upstairs, I just don't have anyone that can run the tracks for me, since they're pretty busy, what with the war and all :)), but I don't think it actually crosses our orbit.

I THINK it comes in at an eccentric angle (above or below the ecliptic, or plane of the planets). If that's the case, the chances of a path for orbital debris is slim. Doesn't mean there isn't a little, but on the other hand, asteroids simply don't "break off". Also, chances are if this thing has passed us before, and there was any debris to be pulled into the atomsphere, it's probably already gone. Of course, all of this is conjecture on my part.

Here's a couple of links you can pass on:

http://www.isas.ac.jp/e/snews/2004/1226_itokawa.shtml

http://echo.jpl.nasa.gov/~ostro/itokawa.html

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/asteroid-04b.html

I'm not sure if this is what kind of information you're looking for, but I hope it helps. Just as a reference, the Moon's orbit takes it around the Earth at a distance from approximately 229500 to 243000 miles (at it's closest and furthest distance, respectively). So this asteroid passes approximately 5 times the distance of the moon. It's still considered "near earth asteroid" status though probably because that's not all that far when you think about it, and the moon's, as well as the earth's gravitational fields can affect its future path through space.

That's the long answer. The short answer is, "I don't think so".