Let the Election Predictions Begin

vanity ^ | Nov. 1, 2002 | vanity

[tdadams]

Apologies in advance if anyone's has grumbles about this vanity post.

It seems with only a few days to go, some elections are shaping up with winners emerging and some are tightening up and will be difficult to determine.

I know we all like to give our predictions, so let's make this the place. Give us your election predictions. I'm looking for insight on national races from those who live and vote in those areas they comment on. Overall national prediction would be interesting as well.

[Tennessean4Bush]

I hear 50 Bredeson ads for every Van Hilleary ad. If Bredeson loses this (which I hope and pray he does), it will be a miracle.

[Tennessean4Bush]

Why would anyone want to be Governor of TN? It is such an impotent office. Only thing it is good for is handing out favors and getting criticized.

I hope Harold Ford runs, he is too liberal for East TN and will get clobbered here in the most populous area of the state. Zach Wamp would be awesome replacement for Frist, but that will not be until 2006.

[ultima ratio]

Jeb - FL
Simon - CA (huge upset)

Republicans: GA, MN, MO, SD
Democrats: NH, CO, AR

LA in run-off goes GOP

[CPT Clay]

MN: Coleman 45.1 Mondale 45 Independant(did anyone see the debate last night?) 8

3500k NH: Sununu 49 Shaheen 48 5k margin SD: Thune 50 Johnson 48 MO: Talent 51 Carnahan 48 TX: Cornyn 52 Kirk 47 NJ: Forrester 47 Laut 47 less than 10k margin NC: Dole 52 Nerd 46 Ark: Pryor 50.1 Hutchison 49.9 You think recounts and lawsuits were bad in 2000? Just wait. Oh Landreau does not get 50%. Because so many races will be contested nobody will know who has the senate. 1 billion dollars will be spent in La by both parties as even George W. and Cheney walk precincts!

[CPT Clay]

OOPS

MN: Coleman 45.1 Mondale 45 Independant(did anyone see the debate last night?) 8 3500k

NH: Sununu 49 Shaheen 48 5k margin

SD: Thune 50 Johnson 48

MO: Talent 51 Carnahan 48

TX: Cornyn 52 Kirk 47

NJ: Forrester 47 Laut 47 less than 10k margin

NC: Dole 52 Nerd 46

Ark: Pryor 50.1 Hutchison 49.9

CO: Allard 49 Strickland 49

You think recounts and lawsuits were bad in 2000? Just wait. Oh Landreau does not get 50%. Because so many races will be contested nobody will know who has the senate. 1 billion dollars will be spent in La by both parties as even George W. and Cheney walk precincts!

[tdadams]

I also think Bredesen will win it come election night, but there is reason to be optimistic. In the last reporting period from Sept. 16 through Oct. 26, Hilleary actually beat Bredesen in fundraising (excluding Bredesen's illegal $3 million loan to himself) for the first time. He raised $2.3 million.

It's no wonder you're hearing so many Bredesen ads. According to a campaign media tracking service, in the last five months Bredesen has run 13,633 TV ads compared to Hilleary's 7,947. The ratio is probably similar for radio.

[cschroe]

Leine's Red or Leine's Northwoods Lager would be quite appealing, yes!

[JIM O]

MA GOV.

Romney 47

OBrien 42

[Deport Billary]

GOVERNORS

Riley 53% Siegelman 46

Napolitano 48% Salmon 45

Huckabee 51% Fisher 47

Davis 51% Simon 46

Bush 52% McBride 47

Lingle 50% Hirono 49

Ehrlich 50% Townsend 49

O'Brien 45% Romney 42

Pawlenty 37% Moe 33% Penny 29

Kulongoski 51% Mannix 46

Sanford 52% Hodges 48

Bredesen 50% Hilleary 48

[JDGreen123]

I think President Bush and his staff's visits will make the difference for Van Hilleary in the end. Too many of us in Middle Tennessee detest Bredesen so he cannot win big in his home base. Rural West Tennesseans, usually Democrats, also seems to rather have Hilleary than a New England liberal.

No Mayor of Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, or Memphis has ever become Governor of Tennessee so Bredesen has that against him. On the commercials: Bredesen has personal value of around $170 million. He can buy all the ads he wants. Hopefully he cannot buy the office. That is getting to be a distrubing trend across the country.

[Torie]

Er why did Bush visit the farthest reaches of East Tennessee? Why wasn't he in the 4th CD, or east of Nashville suburbs? What is wrong with the boy?

[VOR78]

We will retain control of the House, if not pick up a few seats. The governor's races do not look good for us. In the Senate, I think it will be as follows:

Thune over Johnson 52-48
Coleman over Mondale and others 47-40-13
Talent over Carnahan 52-48
Strickland over Allard 54-46
Sununu over Shaheen 50.5-49.5
Hutchinson over Pryor 52-48
Lautenberg over Forrester 58-42
Cornyn over Kirk 55-45
Chambliss over Cleland 51-49
Dole over Bowles 53-47
Landrieu 43%, will require runoff and could lose there.
Graham over Sanders 60-40
Alexander over Clement 55-45

By my count, that's a net gain of 3 seats for Republicans, and possibly four if Landrieu loses her runoff. Plus, if my prediction proves accurate, we will have the majority on Wednesday given Talent's victory.

[Gunder]

Wow -- I sure hope you're right! But do you really think Strickland will beat Allard by eight points? Personally, I would reverse those numbers with Hutchinson vs. Pryor. I still see Arkansas as being the GOP's most vulnerable race, but I think the Republican will eek out a win in the Rocky Mountain State.

[HapaxLegamenon]

Coleman 46% Mondale 52% Other 2%

It is obvious you do not live in Minnesota. Wellstone/Mondale have never polled above 47%. Both the Green party and the Independent Party are major parties in Minnesota, averaging about 5% per election. There is a surge right now for Coleman. He may still lose, but Mondull will not get more than 50%

[HapaxLegamenon]

Missed the debated.

In any case, something NONE of the talking-heads are considering. All absentee votes cast for Welfare must be re-casted before they can count for MonDull. The new ballots were only finished being printed yesterday (the Demos delayed putting in Mondale until the last legeal moment as a way of shortening the election. As a consequence the counties had to wait to print the supplemental ballot).

Since most people will not have time to return the new absentee ballots, this gives Coleman at leat a 40,000 vote head start, since his votes don't have to be done over.

In the end it may be enough.

Coleman, 47.5, Mondull 46 others 6.5

[HapaxLegamenon]

How about the Kansas Gov race?

[VOR78]

I think Allard is in lot of trouble, just looking at the polls. They're both polling well under 45% right now, and more than likely the undecideds will break heavily in favor of the challenger (they usually do).

In Arkansas, maybe I'm overly optimistic since he is my senator, but I think Hutchinson has a good shot. Zogby had this one a dead heat a week or two ago, and I believe it more than the one out of Little Rock. There are no independent candidates on the ballot. I think the campaign contributions Pryor recieved from an anti-gun group, as well as his appearance with Bill Clinton in Pine Bluff will both cost him this election as he's looking more and more liberal by the day. The latter in particular, as a large anti-Clinton, anti-liberal sentiment in Arkansas was a large factor in why Hutchinson won the first time around, and the anti-gun stuff will hurt anyone badly in this state. It'll be close, but I think Hutchinson will take it.

[Mission2mars]

We'll have a 4 seat gain in the house.

The Senate is not good. I think Sununu, Talant will win.
Thune,Hutchinson and Coleman won't. I'm also afraid Dole may be surprised. Dims will pick up a seat in the senate.

Mitt Romney, Erlich, and Jeb Bush will all be easy winners as governors.

[mwl1]

Just got off the phone with a Coleman operative and they remain very upbeat. Norm was with the VP yesterday, First Lady today, President tomorrow, and will be with Guiliani on Monday. The Coleman surge is on. Don't let the commentators tell you otherwise.

[mwl1]

He was in east TN to drive the GOP vote to the polls in the Senate, gubernatorial and congressional races.