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Torie's U.S. House Prediction Spreadsheet
Self
| September 6, 2002
| Self
Posted on 09/06/2002 7:25:44 PM PDT by Torie
Below is my updated spreadsheet on the House races. I know you were all waiting breathlessly for it. The predicted GOP gain has dropped from 4 to 1 since I last posted this about 2 months ago.
Net GOP changes from redistricting and plus close seat calls
Georgia -2 Florida 3
Md -2 Mich 2
Oklahoma -1 Penn 2
Tenn -1 Texas 2
New York -1 Arizona 1
New Mexico -1 Minnesota 1
Nev 1
Ohio 1
Total -8 13
Net GOP 5
Existing 211 224 7
Change -5 5
Post Elec 206 229 12
Vulnerable GOP Vulnerable Dem
Riley (AL open) 1 0.510 Skeen (NM open) 1 0.490
Arizona (new) 1 0.510 Morella (MD) 1 0.490
FL (Thurman) 1 0.510 Matheson (Utah) 1 0.450
Sununu (NH open)1 0.510 Georgia 3rd 1 0.450
So Dak (open) 1 0.510 Colo 7th (new) 1 0.450
Indiana (Roemer)1 0.525 Maine 2nd(open) 1 0.450
Johnson (Conn) 1 0.525 Boswell (Iowa) 1 0.300
Nevada (new) 1 0.525 4th CD (TN open)1 0.300
Luther (MN 2nd) 1 0.550 Georgia 11th 1 0.300
Hayes (N.C.) 1 0.550 Pomeroy (N.D.) 1 0.300
Simmons (Conn) 1 0.600 Hoeffel (Penn) 1 0.300
Penn (6th)(open)1 0.600 Condit (Calif) 1 0.300
Nussle (Iowa) 1 0.600 Moore (Kansas) 1 0.300
Iowa (Latham) 1 0.625
Penn (Gekas) 1 0.650
W.V. (Capito) 1 0.700
KY (Northrup) 1 0.700
New Jersey (5th)1 0.700
PA(Toomey)(15th)1 0.700
Mich(Open)(11th)1 0.700
Mich(Open)(10h) 1 0.700
Iowa (Leach) 1 0.700
Total 22 13.200 13 4.880
Gain Gain
Existing 211 224
Net Change -5 5
206 229
Best Dem 228 17 207 -17
Best GOP 193 -18 242 18
R toss + R Toss -
Toss net 4.880 -8.800
Net Toss -3.920
Existing 211 224 0
Predicted 209.92 -1.08 225.08 1.08
TOPICS: Campaign News; U.S. Congress
KEYWORDS:
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1
posted on
09/06/2002 7:25:44 PM PDT
by
Torie
To: Torie
You're still putting MD down for minus 2, huh? From what I've seen lately, Morella is looking good against all four of her prospective opponents (though obviously still vulnerable), and Helen what'shername is competitive as well. I've got fingers crossed the GOP gets one of these seats.
2
posted on
09/06/2002 8:00:51 PM PDT
by
Coop
To: Torie
Wait a sec. Am I reading that right? You've got Morella listed as a vulnerable Dem?
3
posted on
09/06/2002 8:02:04 PM PDT
by
Coop
To: Torie
The predicted GOP gain has dropped from 4 to 1 since I last posted this about 2 months ago. Not a good trend. In another month it'll be a loss of 2 or 3, and by election day, who knows? Hopefully the GOP candidates have more money to spend in the key races, but I doubt it.
4
posted on
09/06/2002 8:04:31 PM PDT
by
lasereye
To: Coop
Wait a sec. Am I reading that right? You've got Morella listed as a vulnerable Dem? I noticed that too. He also has Tim Roemer's seat listed as Vulnerable GOP. I sent Torie a private FREEPmail asking him to explain this. I have a similiar breakdown of all the House races myself, and look forward to this discussion.
To: Coop
Vulnerable Dem means seats I have called for the Dems, but have odds of at least 30% of going the other way. I know it is confusing.
6
posted on
09/06/2002 8:08:27 PM PDT
by
Torie
To: BlackRazor
See reply number 6. Thanks. The appelation has nothing to do with which party currently holds the seat. It has to do with the odds that having called the seat for one party or the other, it could go the other way.
7
posted on
09/06/2002 8:09:54 PM PDT
by
Torie
To: lasereye
Hopefully the GOP candidates have more money to spend in the key races, but I doubt it. The Republicans are definitely in better shape financially than the Dems. And Dubya ain't even warmed up yet!
8
posted on
09/06/2002 8:11:13 PM PDT
by
Coop
To: Torie
If a particular race does not appear on your list, does that mean you don't believe it is realistically competitive, or could it simply mean you think the incumbent party will hold the seat (by however small a margin)?
To: BlackRazor
I means that the underdog has less than a 30% chance of winning.
10
posted on
09/06/2002 8:17:09 PM PDT
by
Torie
To: KQQL; crasher
Not much here really that is new and exciting, but whatever.
11
posted on
09/06/2002 8:35:38 PM PDT
by
Torie
To: Torie
I had every one of your listed races on my top-tier list, with the lone exception of PA-13 (Hoeffel), which is on my second-tier longshot list.
I did have several races on my top-tier or "tweener" lists that don't appear on yours. Just for comparison/discussion, those would be:
AR-04; CO-04; FL-22; FL-24; IL-19; IN-07; KY-04; MS-03; MN-06; NH-02; NM-01; OH-03; OH-17; PA-18; TX-05
To: BlackRazor
Yah, your addendum of seats pop up from time to time, but I don't think any of them are in play frankly (it is mostly spin) except maybe for the seat Dickey is running in in Arkansas, where he seems competitive in the polls. But I don't see his chances as hitting 30% yet, although he is close. Some seats, like the Colorado 4th, Bush carried by over 20%.
13
posted on
09/06/2002 8:44:19 PM PDT
by
Torie
To: Torie
Agreed - most of the extra ones I listed have a definite favorite. If I had to pick the ones that I thought were truly competitive, I'd say IL-19, NM-01, and possibly NH-02. It looks like OH-03 is an all but certain pick-up for the GOP. I also have OH-17 listed simply because of the fact that Traficant's name will remain on the ballot. I'm not sure how much impact that will have on the Dem candidate, but I think it's worth keeping an eye on.
To: BlackRazor
Well one can argue about Heather Wilson and Bass in NH, but they are running way ahead in the polls. I can't imagine Shimkus losing, unless the governor's race has coattails, which I doubt. Gore won the Traficant seat by 2-1, so I don't see how Benjamin could slip in.
15
posted on
09/06/2002 8:56:37 PM PDT
by
Torie
To: Torie
Thanks for putting this together. Let me know when you update it.
To: Torie
Torie, I would adjust your CO 7th CD as a slight lean to the GOP (I know Gore eeked out a small win in this district in 2000 but there are several local factors that have translated into a 5-8 point lead for the GOP).
To: BoomerBob
Yes, I watched the candidates in the Colorado 77th on CSPAN, and Pubbie was much more impressive. But the Gore plus Nader vote in the district was 54%, and it really has a slight Dem lean. I must await a poll before I adjust my odds. But it is ripe I suspect for an adjustment unless the macro climate for Pubbies deteriorates. This is one district where a weak economy will hurt the Pubbie, since the district has a large blue collar component.
18
posted on
09/06/2002 9:16:35 PM PDT
by
Torie
To: nunya bidness
You are welcome, and I will. Regards.
19
posted on
09/06/2002 9:16:57 PM PDT
by
Torie
To: Torie
Thanks for the update. I agree with the vast majority of it.
One slight disagreement is, I would flip your odds for AZ (new) and NM (open). I think the GOP has the edge in NM, and the Dems have the edge in AZ.
20
posted on
09/06/2002 9:23:37 PM PDT
by
crasher
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