KELOLAND News Poll: Thune vs. Johnson [40% - 40%]

KELOLAND.COM ^ | 8/26/02 | Don Jorgensen

[BlackRazor]

KELOLAND News Poll: Thune vs Johnson

All this week we'll unveil the numbers from our latest KELOLAND NEWS POLL. It's been proven over the years that this is the most accurate and dependable poll in the area.

KELOLAND'S Don Jorgensen joins us with a look at the numbers and has reaction from both candidates.

The U-S Senate race in South Dakota is one of the most hotly contested and closely watched campaigns this election year. In one corner you have Republican John Thune and in the other corner Democrat Tim Johnson. Both are popular South Dakota politicians, plus this race could decide control of the Senate. If the election were held today, who would win? Even political experts are shocked by the numbers in this race.

"I think everybody knows it's a close race, we know that," said Tim Johnson.

John Thune says " I think at the end of the day it's going to come down to turnout."

Even the candidates couldn't have predicted this one.

According to our KELOLAND NEWS POLL, Republican John Thune and Democrat Tim Johnson are in a dead heat, both picking up 40 percent of the vote.

Both say our poll is good news for their campaigns.

Thune says "You've got an incumbent of the U.S. Senate who is only getting 40 percent two months from election, that can't be very good news for Tim Johnson and his campaign."

Johnson says "This doesn't surprise me at all. It does show me there's been a lot of momentum in my direction."

The last time we conducted our scientific poll, Thune held a slight lead over the incumbent.

Ironically, both consider themselves the underdog.

"We've always know this would be a come from behind thing and it looks to me we're getting it done," said Johnson.

Thune says "I'm the challenger I've always consider myself the underdog, which is why I'm going out working hard and trying to make contact with people as many South Dakotans as I can."

the man who conducted our poll, Jim Meader, sees the race shaping up like this.

"I've been doing this for 20 years, and I've never seen any race as close as this."

Our poll has a plus or minus four percent margin of error. Tonight at ten, we'll take a closer look at the U-S Senate race to find out why people voted the way they did.

[BlackRazor]

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[Coop]

A lot of undecideds all of a sudden. The previous several polls had 7-12% undecided. Hmmmm. Well, whatever it is (assuming this poll is an accurate representation) it's affecting both fellas about equally.

[princess leah]

Tim has Tom Daschle on his side and John Thune (well, he's a born again Christian with Jesus on his side)...who would you rather have with you? This doesn't mean God takes sides in elections, but it does mean that the power of prayer can be stronger than the power of people's egos and the machinations of mankind...

[CPT Clay]

I thought most had made up their mind on this one. For months its been 46-45 or 45-44 etc. 90%+ had decided.?.

[Coop]

Aha! I found out why this poll shows such a low decision factor between the two. This poll included the Libertarian candidate Evans (first time I've seen him mentioned), and he'll pulling in 5%. That still leaves undecideds at about 15%, a little higher than other polls.

[frmrda]

Prayer is great and all, but I'd settle for an energized base and a Thune campaign that drags every known Republican and conservative from their house to the voting booth.

[KQQL]

..interesting poll..looks like TURN out will
determine this race

[KQQL]

!

[KQQL]

By the way is Janklow is trouble??/

08/27/2002
KELOLAND News Poll: Janklow Vs. Herseth

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Both Governor Bill Janklow and Stephanie Herseth won their primary elections by large margins. You can expect a closer count in November.

Stephanie Herseth considers herself the underdog against Governor Bill Janklow in the race for the U.S. House of Representatives. But she believes she can win. And according to the KELOLAND Election Poll, Herseth has a slight edge over the political veteran, Janklow. The scientific poll shows that if the election was held today, 44 percent of the 600 voters surveyed would choose Herseth. 41 percent would pick Janklow.

But with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent, the numbers could still go either way. Herseth says, "Just because the underdog is a few points up at the end of the third quarter, doesn't mean you stop being the underdog. And I'm running against a gentleman who's been Governor for half my lifetime so in my own mind, I'm still the underdog."

According to the KELOLAND Poll, two percent of those surveyed say they'll vote for someone else, leaving 13 percent undecided. Those are the voters who will decide which candidate's going to Congress.

The KELOLAND election poll was taken by phone between August 14th and August 21st. Tonight at ten, we'll take a closer look at why the race is so close.
John Bachman
© 2002 KELO-TV. All Rights Reserved.

[Coop]

The last few polls I've seen have shown Janklow/Herseth basically in a dead heat.

[floriduh voter]

Are Thune& Johnson having any more debates? Johnson was playing defense the last time around. He's kind of a mumbler and he forgot to mention the war on terrorism, just like our dem candidates in Florida, no matter what they're running for. The Dems' message no matter what state we're talking about is just re: prescription drugs when there's a world of issues out there. Their message is so narrow I don't see how Johnson can last much longer.

I cannot forget his remark during the debate that "SD would have SO MUCH POWER if Daschle and TJ were in the Senate together." Scary thought and not exactly what Daschle is supposed to be aspiring to. Johnson said power with such authority - I like candidates who talk about public service, not power. FV born and raised in SD

[floriduh voter]

DASCHLE DEM WATCH PING LIST. We're watching all of them. It doesn't matter what they're running for or what state they're in. Welcome, gmbyman, to the DDWPs.

PhiKap, can you post your list here of all the races we're closely watching for November? You know, that great table you did, or even putting the url here would be helpful. Thanks in advance. Have a great Sunday. FV

[SoDak]

Janklow has done NO campaigning yet. He has said that elections are too long, and he won't start his until September. He hasn't run a single ad yet. He's been busy as governor what with all the fires, and the drought and all. I think this is going to turn around real soon. After all, I just gave him and Thune each a check, so look out. *L*

[SoDak]

The buzzword is turnout. If we can get a lot of turnout, we'll be ok.

[MeekOneGOP]

Pulling for Thune big-time here !

If it doesn't fit, you must obstruct it !

[floriduh voter]

Bumping this to the top. Good effort, Meek. I lost interest in Bud Selig so I didn't bother to post his photo.

Now this Thune race, he's worth fighting for and drumming up some support. The college kids like him, gee, I hope they are of voting age!!!

[floriduh voter]

Well, sodak, I guess you'll be renting a bus then to get voters to the polls. LOL

I wish I could come up there and help. Are they done debating each other? And, Daschle's been hiding all summer after embarrassing South Dakotans the other three seasons. Is he literally hiding? I think so. FV

[lasereye]

As I understand it, when South Dakotans understand that Daschle could lose his position as Senate Majority leader if Johnson loses, they are more likely to vote for Johnson, even though Daschle's approval ratings are real low. So they don't like what Daschle has been doing apparently, but they want him to stay in charge.

This poll adds to my conviction the GOP will not take the Senate and probably lose the House as well. Thune should be clearly ahead at this point if there was a Republican tide this fall. The fact that Bush is trying real hard to not give any clear reason why it's a good idea to give the GOP control of the Senate may have something to do with it. When you get down to it he's as lame as his father.

If my prediction comes true, expect some idiotic announcement the day after the election by Rove or someone that "Bush is ready to take off the gloves now".

[MeekOneGOP]