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Posted on 05/05/2026 6:29:15 PM PDT by Red Badger
WASHINGTON: US intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts estimated that a US-Israeli attack had pushed back the timeline to up to a year, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
The assessments of Tehran’s nuclear program remain broadly unchanged even after two months of a war that US President Donald Trump launched in part to stop the Islamic Republic from developing a nuclear bomb.
The latest US and Israeli attacks that began on February 28 have focused on conventional military targets, but Israel has hit a number of significant nuclear facilities.
The unchanged timeline suggests that significantly impeding Tehran’s nuclear program may require destroying or removing Iran’s remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium, or HEU.
The war has stalled since the US and Iran agreed an April 7 truce to pursue peace. Tensions remain high as both sides appear deeply divided, and as Iran has choked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, blocking some 20 percent of world oil supplies and igniting a global energy crisis.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has said publicly that the US aims to ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon via ongoing negotiations with Tehran.
US intelligence agencies had concluded prior to June’s 12-day war that Iran likely could produce enough bomb-grade uranium for a weapon and build a bomb in around three to six months, said two of the sources, all of whom requested anonymity to discuss US intelligence.
Following the June strikes by the US that hit the Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan nuclear complexes, US intelligence estimates pushed that timeline back to about nine months to a year, said the two sources and a person familiar with the assessments.
The attacks destroyed or badly damaged the three enrichment plants known to have been operating at the time. But the UN nuclear watchdog has been unable to verify the whereabouts of some 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent. It believes that about half was stored in an underground tunnel complex at the Isfahan Nuclear Research Center, but it has been unable to confirm that since inspections were suspended.
The International Atomic Energy Agency assesses the total HEU stockpile would be enough for 10 bombs if further enriched.
“While Operation Midnight Hammer obliterated Iran’s nuclear facilities, Operation Epic Fury built on this success by decimating Iran’s defense industrial base that they once leveraged as a protective shield around their pursuit of a nuclear weapon,” said White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales, referring to the June operation and the latest war that began in February.
“President Trump has long been clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon – and he does not bluff.”
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence did not respond to a request for comment.
Stopping Tehran’s nuclear program a key US goal
US officials, including Trump, repeatedly cite the need to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program as a key objective of the war.
“Iran can never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. That is the goal of this operation,” Vice President JD Vance wrote on X on March 2.
The unchanging estimate of how long it would take Iran to build such a weapon reflects in part the focus of the latest US and Israeli military campaign, the sources said.
While Israel has struck nuclear-related targets, including a uranium-processing facility in late March, US attacks have concentrated on conventional military capabilities, Iran’s leadership and its military-industrial base.
The unchanged estimates may also stem from a lack of major nuclear targets that can be readily and safely destroyed following June’s military action, according to some analysts.
Eric Brewer, a former senior US intelligence analyst who led assessments of Iran’s nuclear program, said it was not surprising that the assessments have not changed because recent US strikes have not prioritized nuclear-related targets.
“Iran still possesses all of its nuclear material, as far as we know,” said Brewer, vice president of the nuclear materials study program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative arms control think tank. “That material is probably located in deeply buried underground sites where US munitions can’t penetrate.”
In recent weeks, US officials have contemplated dangerous operations which would significantly impede Iran’s nuclear efforts. Those options include ground raids to retrieve the HEU believed to be stored in the tunnel complex at the Isfahan site.
Iran has repeatedly denied seeking nuclear weapons. US intelligence agencies and the IAEA say Tehran halted a warhead development effort in 2003, though some experts and Israel contend that it secretly preserved key parts of the program.
Possible impact from killing of scientists
Precisely evaluating Iran’s nuclear capacity is difficult, even for the world’s leading intelligence services, say experts.
Several US intelligence agencies have independently studied Iran’s nuclear program, and while the sources described a broad consensus regarding Iran’s capacity to build a nuclear weapon, outlying assessments do occur.
It is possible Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been set back further than the intelligence estimates suggest.
Some officials, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have argued that US strikes on Iranian air defenses have reduced the nuclear threat by diminishing Iran’s ability to defend its nuclear sites should it decide to rush toward weaponization in the future.
There also is the impact of Israel’s assassinations of Iran’s leading nuclear scientists.
David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector who runs the Institute for Science and International Security, said the killings have added significant uncertainty to Tehran’s ability to build a bomb that would function as intended. “I think everyone agrees knowledge can’t be bombed, but know-how certainly can be destroyed,” he said.
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This assessment is likely based on the belief that they continue to have some kind of access to the 60% enriched uranium. They may or may not, and undoubtedly they do not have the current capacity to enrich as they did before. We interrupted their program, without a doubt. We also gained knowledge we may not have had about how much enriched uranium they have.
To extrapolate from this assessment that we’ve been ineffective would be entirely inaccurate. That said, it does make it clear that we have to take away their enriched uranium, or make it permanently inaccessible.
A report last week conjectured that they have enough enriched uranium on hand hidden somewhere to make eleven Hiroshima sized bombs.................
More unsourced blather from an ARAB propaganda outlet ...
There is a widely held misperception that with "smart" munitions, every bomb dropped hits it's intended target and that the intended target is the proper target and that the enemy never uses decoys.
Arabs don’t like Iranians.................
It's unsourced blather ...
If POTUS fails to retrieve all the U-235, he will have failed the American people on the gravest of national security issues.
They have their contacts that keep them informed. Illegally.......
I thought their top scientists were killed. That would seem to set them back as well as a damaged economy.
no worries, Trump is a very stable genius
BS
Informed? Or misinformed? Or disinformed?
And do you trust one of 0bama’s boys regardless of “contacts”?
Where is General Taylor, when we need him...
Some people are not old enough to remember that even after the fire-bombing of Tokyo and other cities (killing half a million fanatics) and leveling Hiroshima with a nuke (killing 100K fanatics), the japs were at “zero” wrt surrender...
The U.S. is facing the same cultural fanaticism as it did in 1945...
We have to exterminat them all...
He was giving his opinion on info that came from somewhere else. His opinion is just as good or bad as ours are.
This report originally came from Reuters, so it’s iffy at best, ‘sources say’...............
Same thing happened in WW2 and past brushfire wars as post war research showed bombing from the air was less effective than thought...
alas this is an Arab source and quotes a lot of intelligence types who hate Trump so might be lying. But never mind. Propaganda is good for you.
It’s a reprint of an original Reuters article........
There must be an occupying force if a truce or armistice is to be effective. Otherwise it’s just a piece of paper..............
According to other reports the 60% enriched uranium is still in gaseous form not the metallic form needed to create a crude fission device. If the Israeli and U.S. military’s are to be believed the facilities required to convert gaseous enriched uranium to fissile material no longer exist.
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