How a Russia vs. NATO War Could Actually Start

National Security Journal ^ | 9/27/2025 | Reuben F. Johnson

[whyilovetexas111]

Russian drones crossing into Poland and MiG-31s violating Estonian airspace revived the core question: how does a Russia vs. NATO war actually begin? Moscow will keep probing seams—airspace, air defenses, political will—aiming to force NATO into an Article 4/5 dilemma. Europe’s fragmented defense industry, ammunition shortages, and uneven appetite for risk create openings for a rapid, deniable “fait accompli” in the Baltics using EW, drones, and covert forces. That scenario wouldn’t resemble a set-piece tank battle; it would be a shock campaign designed to split allies before they can mobilize.

[rlmorel]

That reminded me of this (probably apocryphal) scene from the movie "Midway"...

[Worldtraveler once upon a time]

You commented to whyilovetexas111. Five hours later he did not respond in a Freeper manner to you or any other those who asked questions. He's not interested in what you have to say. He's interested that you click on his link -- almost daily link -- to the "journal."

Flogging his blog, as Vermont Lt observed correctly.

[rrrod]

Ok. Thanks.

[real saxophonist]

This article is fear mongering bullshit.

Just like everything else he posts.

[freeandfreezing]

why wouldn’t Russia eventually start to attack strategic targets on American soil?

Because a country that can't even defeat Ukraine isn't about to get itself destroyed by doing something so stupid.

[freeandfreezing]

This article is fear mongering bullshit.

Or another example of Russian information space warfare.

Russia's military right now can't even advance against Ukraine, and their stock of weapons is significantly depleted.

[freeandfreezing]

Can it be true that Zelensky has tricked Trump into thinking Russia will not hold America responsible?

Do you realize how dumb that idea is?

[silverleaf]

I’m only passing on info shared by a military officer that used to be a Trump security advisor and maintains connections with defense and IC sources.

So what do I know.

[ansel12]

Reports citing good intel sources indicate the drones were decoys, no warheads, essentially plywood and foam some taped together, with Polish and Swedish sim cards. So “ repurposed” Russian decoys prob retrieved in Ukraine .
The damage photo Poland took to the UNSC was a house roof hit by a failed Polish or NATO F-16 AAM
The airspace” violation crossed “ no Estonian territory, MiGs flew along or close to ADIZ in Gulf of Finland and about 3 Km off a small rocky island claimed by Estonia, while transiting from Karelia to Kaliningrad.

You got all that from a military officer who used to advise president Trump and is still getting information from defense and IC sources, and is being published on FR.

That sounds like him and his sources are due an investigation.

[silverleaf]

I think discovery would be welcome.
Go for it.

By posting the details I saved you from watching several podcasts where this was openly discussed.

Its all been pretty much covered now by multiple sources, except the bit about Swedish and Polish sim cards. Only heard that from this analyst.

The Poles made asses of themselves taking this to the UNSC. The Polish MFA is foaming at the mouth to escalate into war.

Sweden and Poland are countries whose advisors are in Ukraine to train Ukes on drone warfare,

[ansel12]

“”””””By posting the details I saved you from watching several podcasts where this was openly discussed.””””””

I think we all figured that, but your tale sounded so much more dramatic and self important.

[silverleaf]

Lol..talk about projection!

[silverleaf]

Lol..talk about projection!

[ansel12]

Weird, that didn’t make any sense.