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How a Russia vs. NATO War Could Actually Start
National Security Journal ^ | 9/27/2025 | Reuben F. Johnson

Posted on 09/27/2025 8:26:42 AM PDT by whyilovetexas111

Russian drones crossing into Poland and MiG-31s violating Estonian airspace revived the core question: how does a Russia vs. NATO war actually begin? Moscow will keep probing seams—airspace, air defenses, political will—aiming to force NATO into an Article 4/5 dilemma. Europe’s fragmented defense industry, ammunition shortages, and uneven appetite for risk create openings for a rapid, deniable “fait accompli” in the Baltics using EW, drones, and covert forces. That scenario wouldn’t resemble a set-piece tank battle; it would be a shock campaign designed to split allies before they can mobilize.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalsecurityjournal.org ...


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To: jimwatx

Is it true that Trump has given Zelensky the okay to strike deep inside Russia with American supplied missiles? Can it be true that Zelensky has tricked Trump into thinking Russia will not hold America responsible?

Maybe we need to rethink our assessment of Zelensky’s abilities. Does he have Trump feeding out of his hand and willing to start nuclear exchanges between Russia and the United States? Forget about the thousands of soldiers dying in Ukraine. Think about the countless millions dying in the United States.

Zelensky must be a modern day Machiavelli.


21 posted on 09/27/2025 9:30:15 AM PDT by odawg
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To: jimwatx
“Trump has surrounded himself with neocon advisors like Rubio and Waltz who no doubt are pushing for war.”

Never heard them push for war with Russia.
Not to mention Trump is not prepared to enter into WW III.
He's done everything to avoid it.
It means suicide for the world.
And because of what?
A corrupt sleazy country like Ukraine?
Not worth even one American life.

22 posted on 09/27/2025 9:32:11 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: odawg

Yes, President Trump has indicated support for Ukraine to have deeper strike capabilities, which would allow them to target locations further inside Russia. How long will Russia just sit back and allow their oil refineries and other strategic assets to be destroyed without responding in kind by perhaps taking out US refineries in Louisiana?


23 posted on 09/27/2025 9:39:52 AM PDT by jimwatx
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To: whyilovetexas111

Ukrainian (NATO proxy) forces are being steadily ground down. Their last significant offensive strike forces are being attritted in Povrovsk, and they have a fair amount of armor trapped east of Kupiansk. NATO is desperate with these lame false flag operations to try to stir up an excuse to send in their own forces. The attempts to suppress democracy in Moldova is just another example of their malice.


24 posted on 09/27/2025 9:51:14 AM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time

Thanks for the ping but I don’t understand.


25 posted on 09/27/2025 9:59:44 AM PDT by rrrod (6)
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To: rrrod

Liberals do.


26 posted on 09/27/2025 10:04:23 AM PDT by TBP (Decent people cannot fathom the amoral cruelty of the Democrat cult.)
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To: rrrod
No civilized person wants war.

True, but the left does.

27 posted on 09/27/2025 10:05:15 AM PDT by TBP (Decent people cannot fathom the amoral cruelty of the Democrat cult.)
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To: PGR88

Your forget “You Will Eat Ze Bugs” Davos.


28 posted on 09/27/2025 10:07:22 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: whyilovetexas111
The EU desperately wants to trigger Article 5 and draw us into a hot war with Russia, which would led to WW III.

EU, I have no doubt, will try multiple false flags to try and trigger Article 5.

29 posted on 09/27/2025 10:11:43 AM PDT by Kazan
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To: whyilovetexas111

Fan fiction written on a pack of lies, written by a Uke.


30 posted on 09/27/2025 10:23:58 AM PDT by DesertRhino (When men on the chessboard, get up and tell you where to go…)
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To: SmokingJoe

Mr. Zelenskyy must do all in his power—anything—to drag the USA into his war with Russia. He is losing bit by bit. Most of all he is losing with the European population—who have no stomach for a war with Russia that could turn into WW III (They would be the big losers here.) Zelenskyy will kill, blow up do what he can to drag US & NATO into the fight. If not—He is a Dead man walking. If Mr. Z. can get his hands on a nuke— heaven help us.
I think he will do it! Do a 9-11 and fix blame on Putin and Russia. Maybe hit Germany or France. The Big wwar will start next spring—Start small but by Summer it will be WW III—US and 1/2 of NATO—Canada and aa few other stares VS BRICKS nations. WW III fought on all continents. New York will be the first allied City to go, London, Paris, Berlin next. US Troops fighting in Korea as North fights south. Naval Battles in the North Pacific with the invasion of Alaska. US Troops fighting along side Vietnamese against China and India. Battles in Brazil and the African Congo. All of Southern Africa will go to South Africa. Egypt-Iran and Turkey will invade Israel that will fall in three weeks. This two year war will see hundreds of millions die and the Geo-political structure of the world change. Trump may well be forced to sign the surrender papers in Florida and go down as the worst president of all time.


31 posted on 09/27/2025 10:24:57 AM PDT by Forward the Light Brigade (. War is Hell, War IS a Crime.)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

It will start with a “No-Fly Zone” over Ukraine—”To save the Children” with Nato-US planes to shoot down Russian drones. The NATO occupation of Odessa to police the area and keep out Russians (England will take the lead). Then a US-UK-Ukraine D-Day landing to take Crimea. That’s when the ball goes up for WW III.


32 posted on 09/27/2025 10:40:31 AM PDT by Forward the Light Brigade (. War is Hell, War IS a Crime.)
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33 posted on 09/27/2025 11:08:36 AM PDT by Who is John Galt? ("...mit Pulver und Blei, Die Gedanken sind frei!")
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To: whyilovetexas111

Gradually, then suddenly.


34 posted on 09/27/2025 11:10:57 AM PDT by motor_racer ("We're gonna reward our friends and we're gonna punish our enemies" - Barack Hussein Obama)
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To: oldbill

No, he is actually citing verifiable facts.
The Russian jets were over international waters. The drones a group no less, unarmed). Don’t have the range to und up where they did if launched from Russia, also in-state of disrepair, some showing signs of repair with tape. The middle was clearly identified as non Russian. It all findable, just not from Ukraine or their war mongering neo-con friends and media. Pathetic really!


35 posted on 09/27/2025 11:24:13 AM PDT by foundedonpurpose (Praise Hashem, for his restoration of all things! Tyllllllllll)
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To: jimwatx
HIMARS have a range between 70km and 499km, and the 499km is only with the Precision Strike Missile, which I don't believe we've supplied.

And even 499km is not "deep" into Russia.

They're mainly used against Russian troops in occupied parts of Ukraine or staging areas near the border.

36 posted on 09/27/2025 11:30:28 AM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: kiryandil
Russian decoy drones crossing into Poland is a Ukrainian false flag.

Together with those wily Ukrainian pilots stealing Russian MiGs from Russian airbases and violating Estonian airspace. /s

37 posted on 09/27/2025 11:31:55 AM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: redfreedom
Well, they could seize some parts of Estonia or Lithuania and then stop.

What then? What if Estonia invokes Article 5 and Germany or another state like Hungary declines?

The purpose would be to cause NATO to dissolve.

And the real problem with Europe facing Russia is not depleted munitions but depleted will.

38 posted on 09/27/2025 11:34:58 AM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: pierrem15

It isn’t just HIMARS they are talking about sending Ukraine Tomahawk cruise missiles as well.

This is what Ukraine could hit in Russia with US Tomahawk missiles
https://kyivindependent.com/why-ukraine-wants-tomahawk-missiles/


39 posted on 09/27/2025 11:42:41 AM PDT by jimwatx
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To: jimwatx

Trump already has the Himars on their way, they are either just arriving, or will be shortly.


40 posted on 09/27/2025 1:07:40 PM PDT by ansel12 ((NATO warrior under Reagan, and RA under Nixon, bemoaning the pro-Russians from Vietnam to Ukraine.))
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