Posted on 09/13/2025 6:00:40 AM PDT by whyilovetexas111
The conflict itself would likely play out in several phases. The opening week would be defined by missile barrages aimed at Taiwan’s defenses and US forward bases, along with cyber and space attacks to blind command networks. Taiwan’s dispersal plans and mobile launchers would mitigate, but not eliminate, the damage.
The next phase would be the battle for sea denial. Submarines, mines, and long-range anti-ship weapons would be hurled against convoys carrying PLA troops and supplies across the Strait. Geography favors the defenders, but China’s proximity and numerical advantage mean some ships would get through. The outcome of this battle for sea denial would turn on whether enough could survive repeated strikes to sustain a lodgment.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalsecurityjournal.org ...
It would be a blockade first. Writer misses that pint.
I don’t think the US has the appetite to go to war to try and regain Taiwan, if China does a blitzkrieg and takes it before the US can mount a defense of the island.
However, if China is too slow I think the US might do something to stop it.
China is biding its time to when it can take the island quickly.
If the US decides to fight to win — and Trump has recently made the point that we have failed to do this since WWII — if we want to beat China, we just take out their big dam. That would be about the first thing I would do. They wouldn’t be thinking about Taiwan then.
The question is how will China get enough troops to Taiwan to “win?”
They don’t have the sea lift capacity. Nor do they have the experience in amphibious operations. They have to move across 100 miles of open sea. Under a barrage of missiles.
Good luck with that.
And China would not want to destroy the infrastructure in Taiwan; that is the entire reason they would want to “invade.”
Finally, Taiwan will naturally move towards China over the next few years. They share a history and a culture. Families move back and forth with regularity. My point is there won’t be a war because Taiwan doesn’t really want one.
A related question: Should China invade Taiwan, all Chinese trade with the United States would cease. And also its trade with many other countries.
Would China be willing to accept that in return for *maybe* taking Taiwan?
Review
Who wins? The National Security Journal, and J. B. Gorton, who also registered and runs the 19FortyFive site.
One states "we are not a ‘conservative’ or ‘progressive’ website." The other states something similar.
**all Chinese trade with the United States would cease. And also its trade with many other countries.**
Other countries-wanna bet?
The US should definitely avoid a hot war with the PRC.
Taiwan must provide for its own security and defense, with our advice and the US weapons Taiwan should be allowed to buy.
There will be no war. The people of Taiwan will vote to join Red China. One party is all for Political Unification. China needs but to wait. The Chinese can afford to wait a few decades. They will gain by peace what would be hard by war. The Chinese do not think like us. There will be no Taiwan D-Day and invasion—why when they can get it all with some slick corruption, a treaty or two, and a fixed election?
> Other countries-wanna bet? <
One would hope other countries would punish China for its aggression. That would depend on the country, of course. But if China invades Taiwan, any cargo ship leaving a Chinese port would have to deal with US submarines.
That could put a crimp in Chinese trade, for sure.
Half of our country would fight for the commies.
Open , all out war? China is way to smart….most likely a complete naval and airspace blockade sealing off of Taiwan for months would bring Taiwan to the negotiating table.
The U.S. with a 6,000 mile plus supply line would be fools to engage China in their front yard that has a 90 mile supply line.
I believe we could take out most if not all Chinese planes carrying nuclear ordinance. However, I don't think our current (dome systems) defense can provide an effective deterrence/defense against a barrage of nuclear Chinese ICBMs and drones?
> The Chinese can afford to wait a few decades. <
That would be the smart move, and perhaps the most likely move.
The only wild card would be civil unrest on the mainland. Starting a war is a way to distract an unhappy population.
Then it’s rally ‘round the flag, boys.
Another endless useless war. No thanks. Taiwan and China should work this out on their own.
Who knows? It could become China’s Viet Nam.
Worse, it is clear from the president's statements and from the recent remarks of JD Vance to Matt Gaetz to the effect that this administration wants to trade with Russia after a settlement over Ukraine, implies that America probably will not impose sanctions against trade with China when China invades Taiwan. Certainly, no sanctions after China conquers Taiwan. With these statements on the record, the power to deter has evaporated.
Those of us who support Ukraine have been shouting from the rooftops that we are destroying our power to the deter China by our fecklessness in Europe. Just as this administration has been searching for ways to blame Ukraine for being invaded, look for the same treatment to be meted out to Taiwan. The Chinese have eyes to see.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.