Posted on 07/07/2025 7:31:29 AM PDT by Red Badger
Virginia’s off-year elections are being viewed by both parties as a key bellwether heading into next year’s midterms, as well as a potential indicator for how voters view President Trump.
Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) will face off to become the first female governor of the state, while Democrats will seek to maintain and grow their majority in the House of Delegates.
The races could prove to be a litmus test for the first year of Trump’s second administration as Republicans prepare to defend their majorities in Congress next year, especially as Virginia has a tendency to oscillate between the two parties in the race for governor.
“The Democrats want to look at this as a bellwether largely because they think they have an advantage here,” longtime Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth said.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball each rate the gubernatorial contest as “lean Democratic.”
A Roanoke College survey released in May showed Spanberger with a wide 43 percent to 26 percent lead over Earle-Sears, with 28 percent of voters saying they were undecided. However, another May poll released by the business group Virginia FREE showed Spanberger leading by 4 percentage points.
Spanberger also holds a fundraising lead over Earle-Sears. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Spanberger raised $6.5 million, while Earle-Sears brought in $3.5 million; Spanberger currently has more than $14 million in the bank, while Earle-Sears has just less than $3 million.
Spanberger, a former intelligence officer, has a history as a formidable candidate, having unseated former Rep. Dave Brat (R) in the state’s highly competitive 7th Congressional District and gone on to win reelection twice. Additionally, she has touted herself as a moderate Democrat, pointing to her work across the aisle while serving in the House.
While Spanberger has touted a number of kitchen table issues including affordability, investing in schools and community safety, she also often points to federal government job cuts made under Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The cuts have had a unique impact on Virginia, given the federal government’s close proximity to the state.
“Virginia is home to more than 320,000 federal employees,” Spanberger said in an interview with The Hill. “I will never miss an opportunity to make sure the president understands that the haphazard DOGE effort has been deeply, deeply detrimental to Virginians, to their families, to our economy, and that the havoc it has wreaked across our commonwealth is so significant.”
“As a former national security professional, I have dire concerns about what the future looks like,” she said, referring to laid-off government employees with “institutional understanding and historical references.”
Earle-Sears, who is originally from Jamaica, has a background as a Marine Corps veteran and business owner. She served in the House of Delegates from 2002-04, ending her tenure when she challenged Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.) in the state’s 3rd Congressional District in 2004. In 2021, she became Virginia’s first female lieutenant governor, winning alongside Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) and Attorney General Jason Miyares (R).
Earle-Sears has leaned into her work in the Youngkin administration in making her case to the commonwealth’s voters, particularly on job creation.
“[Voters] all pretty much say they want what we are doing in Virginia to continue, and my opponent’s problem is she was never a part of creating this great economy that we have, bringing all these jobs to Virginia,” Earle-Sears told The Hill in an interview.
In the wake of the DOGE cuts, Youngkin and Earle-Sears have touted the administration’s “Virginia Has Jobs” initiative, which includes 250,000 open jobs in the state. A “support resource bundle” would also be available to federal workers looking for work.
Democrats have attacked Earle-Sears over her response to the impact of DOGE cuts on the state, however, pointing to remarks she made earlier this year in which she touted the state’s jobs initiative and said losing a job is “not unusual.”
“I have lost a job, and in any room that this has been brought up, I ask the people: ‘How many of you have ever lost a job?’” Earle-Sears told The Hill last month, referring to remarks from earlier this year. “I raised my hand, along with them. And I got to tell you, we don’t want people to, of course, not have jobs, and that’s why we have been so successful in creating over 270,000 of them.”
However, Republicans are still voicing concerns about Earle-Sears’s chances in November.
Veteran GOP strategist and senior adviser to Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign Chris LaCivita called her staff “ameteurs” in a post on the social platform X in May, while one Virginia Republican strategist called this year’s cycle “a hard hill to climb” for Republicans.
“The money disadvantage is massive, and that’s a problem,” the Virginia GOP strategist said. “That’s the challenge beyond structure: the resource piece, and running really good campaigns.”
The strategist noted that in addition to touting her work in Youngkin’s administration, Earle-Sears could draw on issues that have played well for Republicans nationally.
“There are encouraging signs,” the strategist said. “Obviously the president’s approval rating, stability around the world, stability on trade policy. There are the conditions for the national environment to be solid, and yet still it is a challenging state to compete in simply because of the makeup of the state and, historically, just with the party in power, it makes it difficult to [hold onto the governorship].”
During Trump’s first administration in 2017, Democrats saw victories in the gubernatorial, lieutenant gubernatorial and state attorney general races. Democrats did not win a majority in the House of Delegates that year, but they narrowed the GOP majority to one seat.
Two years later, in 2019, Virginia Democrats gained control of the House of Delegates and the state Senate, giving the party control of both legislative chambers and the governor’s mansion for the first time since 1994.
In 2021, when former President Biden was in the White House, Republicans hit back in the state’s off-year elections, when they won back control of the House of Delegates and Youngkin won the gubernatorial contest.
When asked about whether Trump’s presence in the White House will impact the gubernatorial race, Earle-Sears said the campaign is about her and Spanberger.
“This race is about Abigail Spanberger and me and the commonsense ideas that I stand for,” Earle-Sears said. “People can differentiate and make that distinction.”
You aren’t the first to remark that Winsome Sears is not doing very well in her campaign. I haven’t followed it very closely.
Last time I noticed Winsome, she came across as a capable, plain spoken, articulate woman.
However, even a very qualified candidate might not connect with her future voters, someone like Kari Lake who ran for governor in Arizona. Sometimes the majority either already have a favorite candidate, or they simply ‘don’t like’ the opposing candidate, for their own personal reasons. Colonel Allen West, same story; a very able person who just cannot seem to win elections. Not every conservative loss is due to voter fraud.
Of course they are ‘undecided’!
They can’t even decide if they are male or female!...............
As soon as l saw this was from the hill l knew what the slant was going to be, l was not wrong. Trash.
Tough state, they couldn’t win their state legislature in the last elections if I recall correctly. Youngkin was a special case and he aligned with a massive school reform movement.
If VA is a bellweather, the Dems are in a BAD BAD way....
Youngkin broke the mold with his win, as did Sears...
If Sears pulls off this victory, that means the NOVA wall, has broken, and if that’s true, dems are going to get swamped all over the place.
Personally I don’t know if I’d call VA a bellweather.
I would say if Sears pulls off a solid win here, the rest of the night is likely going to be very very good for Republicans. However, if Sears were to lose, I could not say that would mean the night overall will be kind to Democrats.
These same federal workers voted four years ago. And a republican Won!!! No excuses! Trumps economy is on fire, illegals are getting out. The big beautiful bill was signed by Trump. There is no excuse for Virginia not to have another red governor. None at all!
Depends on the northern suburbs of DC.
TDS is strong there, I’d bet.
Even if the elections is a big win for the DEMS, it doesn’t mean a damn thing.........................
Yep. Younkin was an aberration in this otherwise reliably blue state, and he wasn't able to capitalize on his victory.
Virginia is a Great White Whale for the Republicans, much like Texas is for the Democrats. It's a state they always have hopes of winning and never do.
I don't expect Earle-Sears will prevail, which is a shame.
Exactly.
Sears and Younkin winning didn’t shift overall trends.
I would say if Sears wins VA, then that would be considered a huge upset, last polling I saw out of VA Sears was running behind by a good margin... of course I didn’t dig into the polls and think the margins are a bit stupidly lopsided to be believed, honestly... Sears down nearly 20? Not buying that, betting huge sampling bias either geographically, party, or socioeconomically.. if not all 3.
I would say, that one could safely argue if Sears wins, that’s almost certainly a very very bad sign for Democrats nationally.. because that would mean NOVA support had to collapse completely for dems, and/or the rural counties and suburbs were HIGHLY motivated to support the Republican or Reject the democrat, which certainly could indicate a very bad night for democrats across the country.
However, if the Democrat were to win, I don’t think you can extrapolate that that win would equate to the same conclusions nationally.
The Democrat SHOULD win VA, NOVA if engaged, should handily win VA... so its hard to make the argument that the Democrat winning VA would mean any sort of national momentum for them.
Guess we shall see.
This. Plus, Winsome Sears is shaping up to be a bit of a disappointment. I'm afraid there are dark days ahead for we Virginians.
She doesn’t seem to have a machine behind her.
Spanberger worries me, because she isn’t going to stop at just being a Governor.
She has Hilary Clinton eyes..................
She’s not nearly as obnoxious as Hillary, that’s why she’s dangerous.
“Eh, Virginia as a bellweather is skewed because of the very high number of federal employees. Their interests are simply different from most of the rest of the country.”
That’s pretty much correct. It’s more of a bellweather for how effective any attempt at limiting the growth of the central government is.
That’s what I said.. a GOP win could be indicative of a bad night for Dems nationally, a Dem win cannot be indicative of anything meaningful.
A lot can happen in 16 months. (((YAWN))). President Trump could shut off the DemocRATS’ drug supply. Hakeem, Booker and Pressley of the Black Egghead Cockeye could show up wearing toupees and demanding their “reparations” checks.
It’s a lib state, so it can’t be used as a bellwether vote.
Tennessee, where a congress critter has decided to leave his post, that will be the test vote. You can’t count on anything out of VA.
Maryland just raised taxes on almost everything. Even vending machines...
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