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Artificial Intelligence Unlikely to Ever Catch Up with Human Intelligence
Lutheran Science Institute ^ | 3/31/25 | Warren Krug

Posted on 03/31/2025 11:43:30 AM PDT by EnderWiggin1970

In a survey of 475 Artificial Intelligence (AI) researchers, 76% said that as currently practiced, AI research was “unlikely” or even “very unlikely” to achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). AGI is the hypothetical milestone where machines have advanced enough in order to learn as well or better than can humans.

Thus, cold water is being thrown on predictions made early in the AI boom that current AI models only need more data, hardware, energy and money to eventually reach the goal of surpassing human intelligence. But current state-of-the-art AI models aren’t making much progress. In fact, most researchers from the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence believe tech companies have reached a dead end in AI research, and no amount of money will help.

"I think it's been apparent since soon after the release of GPT-4 (the current AI model), the gains from scaling have been incremental and expensive," said Stuart Russell, a computer scientist at the University of California, Berkeley. "[AI companies] have invested too much already and cannot afford to admit they made a mistake [and] be out of the market for several years when they have to repay the investors who have put in hundreds of billions of dollars. So, all they can do is double down."

(Excerpt) Read more at lsiblog.blogspot.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Computers/Internet; Society
KEYWORDS: ai; humanity; intelligence; singularity
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This is an interesting counterpoint to media sensationalism and hype on this topic.
1 posted on 03/31/2025 11:43:30 AM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
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To: EnderWiggin1970

AI will never be smarter than the customers at Waffle House.


2 posted on 03/31/2025 11:45:01 AM PDT by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is opinion or satire. Or both.)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

In absolute sense I agree, but how many people will become permanently unemployable with the intelligence that AI can develop?


3 posted on 03/31/2025 11:45:38 AM PDT by Jonty30 (I have invented blackened salmon salad by baking it in the oven for too long. )
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To: EnderWiggin1970
The definition of AI: A blonde dies her hair brown.
4 posted on 03/31/2025 11:47:16 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

Computers can search thru petabytes of data far faster than humans, they can react to programmed conditions faster than human reaction time.

What they cannot do, and likely never will be able to do, is intuitive reasoning.

Computers are vastly powerful calculators and massive self-searching filing cabinets, which can automatically execute pre-planned and configured actions.

They are not God, or even mere humans.


5 posted on 03/31/2025 11:49:41 AM PDT by clee1 (We use 43 muscles to frown, 17 to smile, and 2 to pull a trigger. I'm lazy and don't wish to smile.)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

It will cheat.................


6 posted on 03/31/2025 11:52:06 AM PDT by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: BenLurkin

OR the customers at the bar sandy used to tend to.


7 posted on 03/31/2025 11:52:07 AM PDT by Qwapisking ("The left will rue the day they cheated Trump out of the 2020 election forever" L.Star )
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To: EnderWiggin1970

“Artificial Intelligence Unlikely to Ever Catch Up with Human Intelligence”

It is not only unlikely but impossible because humans are made in the image of God.


8 posted on 03/31/2025 11:53:23 AM PDT by A strike ("My country is fd up. I demand you let us in to fix yours..")
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To: EnderWiggin1970

I’m not sure I agree 100% with this. I believe that it is capable of a more broad base of knowledge than a person. But as far as deep deep thinking? It’s not doing that. Not without some HUGE advances in the hardware that it runs on. You’ll need tremendous amounts of RAM dedicated to a single query in order for it to be able to think deeply.


9 posted on 03/31/2025 11:55:38 AM PDT by FrankRizzo890
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To: EnderWiggin1970

They are doing pretty well with PGI (Phoney General Intelligence) at the moment since many (many) of the consumer users do not have a very high-level, developed and trainined HGI (Human General Intelligence).


10 posted on 03/31/2025 11:56:11 AM PDT by epluribus_2
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To: EnderWiggin1970
This is an interesting counterpoint to media sensationalism and hype on this topic.

Eventually, the new tech company's won't be able to deliver and the bubble will deflate.

11 posted on 03/31/2025 11:58:55 AM PDT by fso301
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To: EnderWiggin1970

AI is a program that simulates human intelligence. I don’t see any reason why a genius level programming team couldn’t produce a simulation that beats most humans on most IQ tests.

But it would not BE human. It would feel no emotions but it would be able to simulate them. It would have no conscience and no free will. Culpability would mean nothing to it.

But so what! AI is here to stay, and it’s getting more powerful. In a few years it will be commonplace to have a personal assistant robot.


12 posted on 03/31/2025 12:00:00 PM PDT by I want the USA back (America is once again GREAT!)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

AI is amazing in that it has access to data usual google types searches do not. However, AI cannot think. It cannot discern fact from fiction. It only provides basically averages of all the data it finds. “This seems to be the popular answer, so here it is.”


13 posted on 03/31/2025 12:02:00 PM PDT by CodeToad ( )
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To: EnderWiggin1970

This may be selectively true. In other words humans may still be better at 10% of certain tasks and AI being better at 90% of tasks (as an example).


14 posted on 03/31/2025 12:04:45 PM PDT by plain talk
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To: Jonty30; EnderWiggin1970
--- "In absolute sense I agree, but how many people will become permanently unemployable with the intelligence that AI can develop?"

Only the Democrats and RINOs, meaning most journalists and a large portion of university faculties.

A dear friend and double-doctorate says "artificial intelligence" is a misnomer for VGP.

Very good programming. Since all AI needs to do is fool people along the measures of the Turing test or Searle's Chinese room, many will attest that AI is the whizbang best-est and all. Because they will be fooled, which is the REAL measure.

For this and for the fact that AI is a product, it will be promoted and vended and hyped and more. And those who open the wallets so easily will prove either 1) AI is indeed intelligence, or 2) AI is a sales pitch.

How wide shall wallets be opened? From the sellers' perspective, as wide and emptying as is possible.

15 posted on 03/31/2025 12:04:56 PM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: clee1

The better the programming, the greater their ability to simulate thinking. At what point does it become indistinct from thoughts out of nothing?


16 posted on 03/31/2025 12:05:11 PM PDT by Jonty30 (I have invented blackened salmon salad by baking it in the oven for too long. )
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To: EnderWiggin1970
Two years ago, GPT-4 passed the Uniform Bar Exam with a score in the 90th percentile, outperforming the average human test-taker. This milestone, confirmed by Stanford’s CodeX and Casetext, signals a turning point for AI’s potential in legal work—not as a replacement for lawyers, but as a powerful assistant. Source: law.stanford.edu
17 posted on 03/31/2025 12:07:35 PM PDT by RoosterRedux (WWIII has begun. It's the Left in the U.S. and around the world against MAGA. )
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To: EnderWiggin1970

We’ve never created a camera that matches the focus ability of the human eye.


18 posted on 03/31/2025 12:08:28 PM PDT by kaktuskid
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To: EnderWiggin1970
This article raises some thoughtful points—especially the theological and philosophical reflections at the end—but it also underestimates how far AI has already come and misinterprets what AI progress actually means.

First, it’s true that AI is not close to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Most researchers agree on that. But it’s misleading to claim AI is “at a dead end.” On the contrary, current models like GPT-4 and O3 are already outperforming many humans on standardized tests, legal exams, complex coding tasks, and scientific reasoning benchmarks. That’s not hypothetical—it’s documented.

Yes, LLMs don't “understand” like humans do, but they don’t have to. The human brain and AI are radically different systems. One is alive, conscious, and created by God. The other is a tool. But if a tool can help doctors diagnose cancer, write legal briefs, or translate languages instantly, that tool has tremendous value—even if it lacks awareness or a soul.

19 posted on 03/31/2025 12:10:13 PM PDT by RoosterRedux (WWIII has begun. It's the Left in the U.S. and around the world against MAGA. )
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To: I want the USA back
In a few years it will be commonplace to have a personal assistant robot.

I for one am looking forward to my new fem-bot over lord. I ordered mine with a Hemi power source, chrome package and a remote control with a mute.

20 posted on 03/31/2025 12:20:04 PM PDT by usurper (AI was born with a birth defect.)
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