CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
Near term still looks like general calm as far as the CW2 sector is concerned. ICE riots, Tesla protests, pro-Hamas actions in particular are down. IMHO, the left is trying to maneuver into another touchstone event to trigger greater protests, but that event has not jelled.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
A shooting at a Midtown Manhattan office building on Monday left at least five people dead, including an off-duty New York City police officer, officials said.
Police identified the gunman as Shane Tamura, 27, of Las Vegas, and said he fatally shot himself. He had a ‘documented mental health history,’ but the motive is still unknown, Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch said at a news conference.
“We are working to understand why he targeted this particular location,” Tisch said.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/nypd-manhattan-gunman/2025/07/28/id/1220444/
The gunman reportedly had just arrived in NYC and immediately initiated the attack. He took his own life before police could reach him.
Though motive is still uncertain, the skyscraper he attacked houses a number of major firms and businesses, including finance giant Blackstone ... and is the national headquarters of the National Football League.
Social media sleuths claimed that Temura had won six awards during his football career and had even played in Canada at one point. Given that the building houses NFL HQ, many assume he that was the target of his attack.
Other people have pointed to different reasons for the rampage. The location of the shooting was the #5 target on a list first distributed by “Globalize the Intifada” activists in November 2023. The list was posted by WOL Palestine (Within Our Lifetime). The same pro-Hamas organization that “protests” every single week in NYC. They were also heavily involved in the college encampments in April of 2024.
OBSERVATION - This was a deliberate act, very possibly terror associated, because one doesn’t drive all the way from Las Vegas to attack offices in a specific building and specific floor. Many questioning his rifle - a Palmetto State Armory lower, a sling, a sight, and a tactical flashlight as indicative of knowledge of firearms.
CNN declared Temura to be a white man, even though photographic and other evidence showed otherwise.
IMHO, this may not be a lone wolf terror attack but some other mentally deranged shooter. Time may or may not tell.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Indicators continue to point to no change in the Fed rate, even though there are cracks developing among the board of governors.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Attorney General Pam Bondi on Monday announced that the Justice Department (DOJ) has filed a misconduct complaint against U.S. District Court Chief Judge James Boasberg over comments he’s made about the Trump administration.
The judge has overseen multiple Trump administration cases, including the high-profile deportation flights case, where the Trump administration deported suspected members of the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang to El Salvador. He also oversaw the administration’s Signal chat case in March.
Bondi did not state what comments the complaint was directly related to, but it accuses Boasberg of making “improper public comments” about President Donald Trump and his administration.
OBSERVATION - The delay in filing this complaint make sense in that it could have clogged up the appeals process. Now it appears that the FO phase for this rogue judge is beginning.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump continues to conduct foreign policy visits with European leaders while in Scotland.
Asia General –
Cambodia / Thailand Threat Level WATCH as of Jul 24, 2025
Situation continues to be tense as the news reporting is relatively scarce and that which is out there borderlines propaganda - depending on source. Here are some snippets of the reported action
***
The Royal Thai Army is reporting that the ceasefire has been broken and fighting has erupted again near Chong Bok in the Ubon Ratchathani Province, with the Cambodian Army launching a surprise artillery barrage against Thai Soldiers on a nearby hill in the area, sparking retaliation from the Thai Army.
The Thai and Cambodian militaries have agreed not to deploy more troops on their border, following a ceasefire deal to end five days of intense fighting, a Cambodian official said
There have been ceasefire violations on the Thai-Cambodian border, but negotiations are still ongoing between the two countries
NOTE - CONTRADICTORY NEWS ON NEGOTIATIONS
Following several ceasefire violations throughout the night and into this morning by Cambodia, today’s meeting between delegations of the Cambodian and Thai Armed Forces has been postponed indefinitely, with the Royal Thai Army currently responding to several cross-border attacks by the Cambodian Army.
OBSERVATION - Its going to take some more time to get this ceasefire settled in.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Trump: I’m going to make a new deadline: 10 or 12 days from today.” “There is no reason for waiting”
Trump previously set a 50-day deadline starting 14 July for Putin to avoid what he described as “very severe tariffs” during a meeting in the Oval Office with Nato secretary general Mark Rutte.
Deputy Chair of the Security Council of the Russian Federation: Trump’s playing the ultimatum game with Russia: 50 days or 10… He should remember 2 things: 1. Russia isn’t Israel or even Iran. 2. Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country. Don’t go down the Sleepy Joe road
OBSERVATION - Russia whistling past the grave yard on this one IMHO. They’ve downplayed a lot of the Trump post election bravado, going as far as to increase broad, drone/missile attacks since the election. Yet Trump still is to unleash the full power of sanctions and tariffs. This has allies China, Iran and N Korea nervous. The sanction/tariff combo would seriously hurt their economies to an extent where it would be too costly to continue to support Russia - even at their current “covert” levels. For Russia, one of the biggest threats is their oil export business, already hard hit by loss of the European market and now threats to the Asian markets too.
Trump may have reached the decisive moment for action. To dither further would down grade any other warnings and to keep his threats real, he will need to act decisively.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-90 range, mostly sunny.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defenses shot down or suppressed 32 Russian Shahed-type drones overnight on July 29, out of 37 launched along with ballistic Iskander-M missiles and drone decoys.
Russian losses per 29/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1050 men
+4 tanks
+39 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Temyrivka village of Zaporizhzhia region and Novoukrainka of Donetsk region of Ukraine
A massive Ukraine drone attack is reportedly underway on occupied Donetsk, with early reports suggesting the railway station may be among the targets.
According to Russian monitoring channels, the attacks in occupied Donetsk/Makiivka are part of a broader attack. Incoming reports of UAV activity in Kamensk, Rostov and the whole of occupied Luhansk region. Lots of UAVs are reportedly flying. There are lots of power outages reported.
Ukrainian forces have increasingly focused on disrupting Russian railway logistics, and tonight appears to be no exception.
Summary —
Low drone day and moderately heavy fighting along the front. Possibly a couple more low drone days before the next surge. Russian advances along the front continue to be ponderously slow and costly.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Pushback on the ‘Two State Solution” conference
- Potential annexation of portions of Gaza by Israel
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Haaretz: Netanyahu will propose to the security and political cabinet to annex parts of the Gaza Strip
Israel PM’s office:
“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The conversation between the two leaders was on the issue of Iran.”
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar says that Israel will not sacrifice its security to satisfy Europe’s political agenda, saying, “We won’t be the 21st-century Czechoslovakia.” He emphasized that 50 hostages remain in Gaza while Hamas refuses to release them or disarm, adding that international pressure should be directed at Hamas, not Israel.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
The IDF says it struck dozens of terror targets in Gaza over the past day, including Hamas operatives, weapons depots, tunnels, and buildings used by terror groups.
Meanwhile, the 98th Division is expanding operations in Gaza City’s Shejaiya and Zeitoun neighborhoods to dismantle Hamas infrastructure and stop rocket attacks.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The two-state solution conference, led by Saudi Arabia and France, has begun at UN headquarters in New York. The conference is a diplomatic push to recognize and legitimize a future Palestinian state.
The United States has officially rejected a Two-State Solution Conference, calling it a publicity stunt, a slap in the face to the victims of October 7th, a reward for terrorism, and an action that keeps the hostages trapped in the tunnels.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel to continue to hammer Hamas in spite of the faux humanitarian issues and attempts to force a two state solution to the region - at the expense of the 40 or so hostages still being held by Hamas. Gaza annexation is the next biggest stick Israel has to force the issue of Hamas surrender and expulsion. This goes beyond the maintenance of a military zone previously presented.
It is also a major pushback to those pushing a two state solution. Reality check, there was essentially a two state situation in Gaza since 2005 when Israel pulled completely out of Gaza. All that did was encourage terrorists like Hamas to step up their terror attacks against Israel.
The situations in S Lebanon and S Syria remain stable but can erupt in targeted violence any time.
The situation with the Houthis is volatile and on the short term one can continue to expect sporadic missile attacks as well as attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Downgraded due to current ceasefire and disengagement of combatants.
“We want Israel.” Protesters in Sweida demand Israeli protection during a demonstration against the current Syrian administration, in light of recent events in the province.
A Red Crescent humanitarian convoy (3rd one since the ceasefire) is preparing to enter Suwayda today. It contained around 200 tons of flour, medical supplies and 1,000 food baskets
OBSERVATION - Still shows a tense situation between the Druze and the sunni Syrian govt. These sunni ‘tribes’ imposing a partial blockade on S Syrian Druze lands.
Venezuela -
The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced sanctions against Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns) as a specially designated terrorist group. According to OFAC, Cartel de los Soles is a Venezuela-based criminal group headed by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and other high-ranking government officials which provided material support to the Sinaloa Cartel and Tren de Aragua.
OBSERVATION - Maduro getting ideas from his Iranian allies by setting up proxy groups throughout the Americas to extend his influence and now growing terror efforts.
Thanks Godzilla.
News world flooded by tracking the 8.8 quake and tsunami’s watch
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
(FO) An editorial published at a Far Left media outlet said the anti-Trump movement doesn’t have the power or organization yet to launch mass resistance, but encouraged activists and militants to continue organizing.
In the interim, the editorial called for the Far Left to continue building local organizations, preparing for labor union strikes, and engaging in “increasingly disruptive protests” against the Trump administration.
OBSERVATIONS - FO notes that the violent left is struggling to gain traction to support violent confrontation of Trump. In part linked to the democrats being underwater according to recent polling. The next target being ready to disrupt the country during the 2026 midterms, which are rapidly approaching and that time frame is working against the left as well.
All bets are off should a large ,unifying national level event take place.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
Stick a fork in this one, not a terror incident but an act of a very mentally unstable person.
Shane Tamura, the NYC gunman who killed 4 before taking his own life, left a suicide note expressing grievances with the NFL and claiming he suffered from CTE, a disease linked to head trauma. The attack took place at an office tower housing NFL headquarters. - CNN
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose in July on the strength of higher expectations for the future, the think tank reported on Tuesday.
At 97.2, July’s preliminary index (through July 20) is up 2.0 points from June’s 95.2 final tally and 4.2 points higher than the June level initially reported by the Board.
“All three components of the Expectation Index improved, with consumers feeling less pessimistic about future business conditions and employment, and more optimistic about future income,” Conference Board Senior Economist Stephanie Guichard said in a press release announcing the results. “Meanwhile, consumers’ assessment of the present situation was little changed,” Guichard reported.
At 74.4, the Expectations Index component increased 4.5 points from June, with consumers expressing greater optimism for the next six months:
- Business conditions will improve: 18.4% of consumers, up from 17.1%.
- More jobs will be available: 17.5%, up from 15.9%.
- Personal incomes will increase: 18.2%, up from 17.6%.
- Fewer expect inflation: 5.8%, down from both 5.9% in June and a peak of 7.0% in April.
- Fewer expect interest rates to rise (53.0%, down from 57.1%) and more expect rates to fall (21.2%, up from 18.4% in June).
- More expect stock prices to rise from April’s 16-month low (47.9%, up from 37.6% three months earlier).
OBSERVATION - Subjective, but is a reflection of ground realities of peoples wallets. Major anchor to continued growth are exceptionally high fed interest rates.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House and senate republican leadership have left over 150 key Trump appointments sitting on their desks while they head out for another extended time off. They will ‘meet’ every five days to prevent any recess appointments as well.
China -
China has indicated that it will not stop importing Russian oil due to its requirements for petroleum. Also said it is ready to challenge any punitive tariffs and sanctions.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-90 range, mostly sunny.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s air defense shot down or suppressed 51 Russian drones overnight, out of 78 launched by Russia from multiple directions. The attack included up to 8 jet-powered drones in the north. Strikes were reported at 7 sites, with debris falling in 2 locations.
Russian losses per 30/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+890 men
+1 tank
+1 AFV
+30 artillery
Russian drones attacked Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk region, damaging the railway station and other rail infrastructure.
Russian sources have released footage of another Iskander missile strike with a cluster warhead targeting a Ukrainian training ground in Chernihiv region. Recon drone video shows no personnel in the open, suggesting Ukrainian troops likely took shelter before impact.
Commander Syrsky recently forbade Ukrainian troops from gathering in large groups.
Security Service of Ukraine has recorded over 10,000 chemical attacks by the Russian Federation. These include the use by the Russians of aerosol grenades “K-51”, “RGR” and “RG-Vo”, which they equipped with poisonous irritants - CS (chlorobenzylidene malonitrile) and CN (chloroacetophenone). There are also frequent cases of the use of ampoules with a poisonous substance - chloropicrin.
Summary —
Use of chemicals of this nature by tyrannical regimes is not a surprise. In Russia’s case, who’s going to stop them or hold them to account? Just like the documented mass murders of civilians by occupying Russian forces there is nothing to deter them.
Use of cluster munitions in an Iskander missile documented for the second time. Reports of some Ukrainian soldiers being wounded, but apparently most got to shelter prior to the strike. Very effective anti personnel warhead.
Otherwise, another standard day in the war.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- France and Britain threaten Palestinian statehood recognition
- Hamas hardens it hostage position
——— GENERAL ——————————-
President Trump:
I have never discussed with Britain the recognition of the State of Palestine if Israel does not change its actions in Gaza, the US is “not in that camp”
I will deal with the points of food distribution in Gaza, together with Israel
You could say you are rewarding Hamas if you do this (recognize a Palestinian state), and I don’t think Hamas should be rewarded. I’m not in that camp, honestly, because if you are in that camp you are rewarding Hamas, and I don’t intend to do that.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A ballistic missile launched by the Iranian-backed Houthis at Central Israel was successfully intercepted by air-defenses of the Israeli Air Force.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
UK PM Starmer told his cabinet the UK will recognize the State of Palestine in September—before the UN General Assembly—unless Israel takes substantive steps to end the “appalling” situation in Gaza, agrees to a ceasefire, rules out West Bank annexation, and commits to a long-term peace process aimed at a two-state solution.
Prior to today’s “ultimatum” issued by U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, he reportedly spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for several hours, with Bibi said to have rejected the conditions set by Starmer, which included Israel ruling out the future annexation of the West Bank and a commitment towards a two-state solution with Palestine.
***
Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have signed onto a statement calling for Hamas to disarm and end its rule of Gaza.
“In the context of ending the war in Gaza, Hamas must end its rule in Gaza and hand over its weapons.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The one - two punch of pro hamas / anti-israel actions by key European nations in the form of the false ‘famine’ claims and threats of acknowledgement of a Palestinian state - BOTH TOSSING THE HOSTAGES UNDER THE BUS WITH NO MENTION has placed Israel in a difficult position. Clearly Trump has their back in this matter.
Hence one option Israel has is annexation. According to Israeli law, lands annexed become essentially impossible reverse ownership. So the threat of a palestinian ‘state’ becomes questionable as far as Gaza goes. For Samaria and Judea, similar annexation would inhibit demands made by Saudi Arabia and others, to make East Jerusalem the capitol of this new ‘state’. Indicators I’ve seen suggest that Trump is ok with those options by Israel.
The successful PR campaign has freed Hamas of the whole hostage issues, except obliquely as noted above in the above statement by Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Lebanon -
The US will no longer dispatch envoy Tom Barrack to Beirut for negotiations with Lebanese officials, or pressure Israel either to stop airstrikes or pull its troops from south Lebanon, according to the sources
OBSERVATION - Lebanon’s govt appears to be increasingly split regarding Hezbollah. Some accept the requirement to disarm and exclude Hezbollah from the country. Other factions support Hezbollah, evidence of the decades of Hezbollah infiltration into Lebanese govt affairs.
Absent significant Lebanese action to neutralize Hezbollah, Israel will continue to have a free hand in hitting sites that Hezbollah is trying to (re)establish for bases and supply centers. Hezbollah doesn’t have the real capability to strike back, so it will suffer under Israeli strikes.
Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Downgraded due to current ceasefire and disengagement of combatants.
Southern Syria:
Report of 40 jihadist terrorists eliminated tonight in an Israeli air force strike on the suburbs of Sweida. There is also an (unconfirmed) report that Israel is transferring large quantities of weapons to the Druze.
OBSERVATION - I wonder, if true, if Israel is supplying the Druze with weapons captured from Hamas and Hezbollah.
Misc of Note –
A powerful 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck near Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula overnight, making it the sixth strongest ever recorded and the most powerful since the 2011 Japan quake. It appears to have ruptured the fault zone for a distance of at least 600 to 700 Kms. Tsunami warnings were issued across several Pacific nations, with evacuations conducted in coastal Japan and Hawaii. Kamchatka and Sakhalin suffered the most, seeing waves up to 3–4 meters and significant flooding.
Results I’ve seen in US lands. Midway Island saw a 7 foot wave, Hawaii 4-5 feet and some locations in California 1 foot.
In comparison to the 2011 Japan quake, the tsunami that hit Kamchatka was substantially smaller than Japan. Many factors drive size, one being the geometry of displacement of the earth. I’m sure analysis of the differences between the two quakes will be coming out for months.
Brings me back around to the threat the Cascadia Fault has on the Pacific NW and coast. Geologic evidence collected in the US for the 1700 quake event indicates a very large tsunami was generated - Japan sized. Freepers should be careful to note if they live in WA, OR or N CA where they live, and proximity to the coast. The potential tsunami generated by a Cascadia mega quake will not over top the coastal ranges but will hammer locations along the coast, many of which will have been already severely damaged by the quake itself.
Please don’t take this a fear mongering, like so many others out there, but this is a hard assessment of reality, just as assessments of tornado alley and hurricane threats along the Gulf and southern Atlantic regions. The first step to disaster preparedness is recognition of threats - man made and natural - and taking steps to mitigate harm in the event something major happens.