News world flooded by tracking the 8.8 quake and tsunami’s watch
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
(FO) An editorial published at a Far Left media outlet said the anti-Trump movement doesn’t have the power or organization yet to launch mass resistance, but encouraged activists and militants to continue organizing.
In the interim, the editorial called for the Far Left to continue building local organizations, preparing for labor union strikes, and engaging in “increasingly disruptive protests” against the Trump administration.
OBSERVATIONS - FO notes that the violent left is struggling to gain traction to support violent confrontation of Trump. In part linked to the democrats being underwater according to recent polling. The next target being ready to disrupt the country during the 2026 midterms, which are rapidly approaching and that time frame is working against the left as well.
All bets are off should a large ,unifying national level event take place.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
Stick a fork in this one, not a terror incident but an act of a very mentally unstable person.
Shane Tamura, the NYC gunman who killed 4 before taking his own life, left a suicide note expressing grievances with the NFL and claiming he suffered from CTE, a disease linked to head trauma. The attack took place at an office tower housing NFL headquarters. - CNN
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose in July on the strength of higher expectations for the future, the think tank reported on Tuesday.
At 97.2, July’s preliminary index (through July 20) is up 2.0 points from June’s 95.2 final tally and 4.2 points higher than the June level initially reported by the Board.
“All three components of the Expectation Index improved, with consumers feeling less pessimistic about future business conditions and employment, and more optimistic about future income,” Conference Board Senior Economist Stephanie Guichard said in a press release announcing the results. “Meanwhile, consumers’ assessment of the present situation was little changed,” Guichard reported.
At 74.4, the Expectations Index component increased 4.5 points from June, with consumers expressing greater optimism for the next six months:
- Business conditions will improve: 18.4% of consumers, up from 17.1%.
- More jobs will be available: 17.5%, up from 15.9%.
- Personal incomes will increase: 18.2%, up from 17.6%.
- Fewer expect inflation: 5.8%, down from both 5.9% in June and a peak of 7.0% in April.
- Fewer expect interest rates to rise (53.0%, down from 57.1%) and more expect rates to fall (21.2%, up from 18.4% in June).
- More expect stock prices to rise from April’s 16-month low (47.9%, up from 37.6% three months earlier).
OBSERVATION - Subjective, but is a reflection of ground realities of peoples wallets. Major anchor to continued growth are exceptionally high fed interest rates.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House and senate republican leadership have left over 150 key Trump appointments sitting on their desks while they head out for another extended time off. They will ‘meet’ every five days to prevent any recess appointments as well.
China -
China has indicated that it will not stop importing Russian oil due to its requirements for petroleum. Also said it is ready to challenge any punitive tariffs and sanctions.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-90 range, mostly sunny.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s air defense shot down or suppressed 51 Russian drones overnight, out of 78 launched by Russia from multiple directions. The attack included up to 8 jet-powered drones in the north. Strikes were reported at 7 sites, with debris falling in 2 locations.
Russian losses per 30/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+890 men
+1 tank
+1 AFV
+30 artillery
Russian drones attacked Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk region, damaging the railway station and other rail infrastructure.
Russian sources have released footage of another Iskander missile strike with a cluster warhead targeting a Ukrainian training ground in Chernihiv region. Recon drone video shows no personnel in the open, suggesting Ukrainian troops likely took shelter before impact.
Commander Syrsky recently forbade Ukrainian troops from gathering in large groups.
Security Service of Ukraine has recorded over 10,000 chemical attacks by the Russian Federation. These include the use by the Russians of aerosol grenades “K-51”, “RGR” and “RG-Vo”, which they equipped with poisonous irritants - CS (chlorobenzylidene malonitrile) and CN (chloroacetophenone). There are also frequent cases of the use of ampoules with a poisonous substance - chloropicrin.
Summary —
Use of chemicals of this nature by tyrannical regimes is not a surprise. In Russia’s case, who’s going to stop them or hold them to account? Just like the documented mass murders of civilians by occupying Russian forces there is nothing to deter them.
Use of cluster munitions in an Iskander missile documented for the second time. Reports of some Ukrainian soldiers being wounded, but apparently most got to shelter prior to the strike. Very effective anti personnel warhead.
Otherwise, another standard day in the war.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- France and Britain threaten Palestinian statehood recognition
- Hamas hardens it hostage position
——— GENERAL ——————————-
President Trump:
I have never discussed with Britain the recognition of the State of Palestine if Israel does not change its actions in Gaza, the US is “not in that camp”
I will deal with the points of food distribution in Gaza, together with Israel
You could say you are rewarding Hamas if you do this (recognize a Palestinian state), and I don’t think Hamas should be rewarded. I’m not in that camp, honestly, because if you are in that camp you are rewarding Hamas, and I don’t intend to do that.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A ballistic missile launched by the Iranian-backed Houthis at Central Israel was successfully intercepted by air-defenses of the Israeli Air Force.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
UK PM Starmer told his cabinet the UK will recognize the State of Palestine in September—before the UN General Assembly—unless Israel takes substantive steps to end the “appalling” situation in Gaza, agrees to a ceasefire, rules out West Bank annexation, and commits to a long-term peace process aimed at a two-state solution.
Prior to today’s “ultimatum” issued by U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, he reportedly spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for several hours, with Bibi said to have rejected the conditions set by Starmer, which included Israel ruling out the future annexation of the West Bank and a commitment towards a two-state solution with Palestine.
***
Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have signed onto a statement calling for Hamas to disarm and end its rule of Gaza.
“In the context of ending the war in Gaza, Hamas must end its rule in Gaza and hand over its weapons.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The one - two punch of pro hamas / anti-israel actions by key European nations in the form of the false ‘famine’ claims and threats of acknowledgement of a Palestinian state - BOTH TOSSING THE HOSTAGES UNDER THE BUS WITH NO MENTION has placed Israel in a difficult position. Clearly Trump has their back in this matter.
Hence one option Israel has is annexation. According to Israeli law, lands annexed become essentially impossible reverse ownership. So the threat of a palestinian ‘state’ becomes questionable as far as Gaza goes. For Samaria and Judea, similar annexation would inhibit demands made by Saudi Arabia and others, to make East Jerusalem the capitol of this new ‘state’. Indicators I’ve seen suggest that Trump is ok with those options by Israel.
The successful PR campaign has freed Hamas of the whole hostage issues, except obliquely as noted above in the above statement by Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Lebanon -
The US will no longer dispatch envoy Tom Barrack to Beirut for negotiations with Lebanese officials, or pressure Israel either to stop airstrikes or pull its troops from south Lebanon, according to the sources
OBSERVATION - Lebanon’s govt appears to be increasingly split regarding Hezbollah. Some accept the requirement to disarm and exclude Hezbollah from the country. Other factions support Hezbollah, evidence of the decades of Hezbollah infiltration into Lebanese govt affairs.
Absent significant Lebanese action to neutralize Hezbollah, Israel will continue to have a free hand in hitting sites that Hezbollah is trying to (re)establish for bases and supply centers. Hezbollah doesn’t have the real capability to strike back, so it will suffer under Israeli strikes.
Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Downgraded due to current ceasefire and disengagement of combatants.
Southern Syria:
Report of 40 jihadist terrorists eliminated tonight in an Israeli air force strike on the suburbs of Sweida. There is also an (unconfirmed) report that Israel is transferring large quantities of weapons to the Druze.
OBSERVATION - I wonder, if true, if Israel is supplying the Druze with weapons captured from Hamas and Hezbollah.
Misc of Note –
A powerful 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck near Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula overnight, making it the sixth strongest ever recorded and the most powerful since the 2011 Japan quake. It appears to have ruptured the fault zone for a distance of at least 600 to 700 Kms. Tsunami warnings were issued across several Pacific nations, with evacuations conducted in coastal Japan and Hawaii. Kamchatka and Sakhalin suffered the most, seeing waves up to 3–4 meters and significant flooding.
Results I’ve seen in US lands. Midway Island saw a 7 foot wave, Hawaii 4-5 feet and some locations in California 1 foot.
In comparison to the 2011 Japan quake, the tsunami that hit Kamchatka was substantially smaller than Japan. Many factors drive size, one being the geometry of displacement of the earth. I’m sure analysis of the differences between the two quakes will be coming out for months.
Brings me back around to the threat the Cascadia Fault has on the Pacific NW and coast. Geologic evidence collected in the US for the 1700 quake event indicates a very large tsunami was generated - Japan sized. Freepers should be careful to note if they live in WA, OR or N CA where they live, and proximity to the coast. The potential tsunami generated by a Cascadia mega quake will not over top the coastal ranges but will hammer locations along the coast, many of which will have been already severely damaged by the quake itself.
Please don’t take this a fear mongering, like so many others out there, but this is a hard assessment of reality, just as assessments of tornado alley and hurricane threats along the Gulf and southern Atlantic regions. The first step to disaster preparedness is recognition of threats - man made and natural - and taking steps to mitigate harm in the event something major happens.
There will be no post tomorrow, Friday the 1st. Traveling
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025
Looking into the weekend. Declining numbers of protests, little chance of riots / violence except for Antifa strongholds in the west. Reminder, local conditions can quickly change as the left is growing increasingly frustrated at the inability of these protest to move the needle into their favor.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
No active warnings I’ve seen. Still be alert to lone wolf actions.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Preliminary government data released Wednesday showed that inflation-adjusted gross domestic product increased by an annualized 3% after shrinking at a 0.5% rate in the previous period.
The Bureau of Economic Analysts report further showed that net exports added 5 percentage points to the GDP, after subtracting the most on record in the first three months of 2025.
OBSERVATION - Good news.
***
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced it will still not lower interest rates, despite calls by President Donald Trump and two Fed governors to do so.
In a 9-2 vote, with one governor not voting, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the central bank’s benchmark overnight interest rate range unchanged (4.25%-4.50%).
Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair Michelle wanted a quarter percentage point cut and voted against the decision – marking the first time in more than 30 years that at least two governors dissented, as Yahoo! Finance explains:
“Two Fed governors haven’t dissented at the same meeting since December 1993 under then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, when governors Wayne Angell and Lawrence Lindsey both opposed the Fed’s bias toward looser monetary policy and wanted to hike rates.”
While the central bank cut interest rates in its last three meetings in 2024 under President Joe Biden, it has declined to reduce rates in all five of its meetings this year.
OBSERVATION - This adds fuel to the fire that Powell and the Fed are deliberately looking to damage the economy going into next years midterm elections. Currently, the economy is meeting all of the Fed’s declared standards for rate decreases. Whether or not Trump has the authority to fire Powell is debatable, but something has to give.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
Trump signs executive order placing a 40% tariff on Brazil, calling its government “an unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security.
He cites Brazil’s “politically motivated persecution” of Bolsonaro and his supporters as a “serious human rights abuse.”
***
President Trump reveals a trade deal has been reached with South Korea.
$350 billion in investments of Trump’s choice.
$100 billion in liquefied natural gas and other energy.
South Korea tariffed at 15%. NO tariffs on American products.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says the US has made trade deals with Cambodia and Thailand.
OBSERVATIONS - Trump’s tariff policy continues to bear fruit as countries seem to be rushing to beat the Aug 1 deadline.
TRUMP Watch –
Openly states that Pelosi should be investigated for insider trading given has her stock portfolio has grown so much, so quickly.
China -
China trying to get another 90 day pause in the imposition of Trump tariffs for more negotiations.
Asia General –
Cambodia / Thailand Threat Level WATCH as of Jul 24, 2025
It appears that the ceasefire continues to hold in spite of claims of minor violations over the past few days. Violations consist generally of sporadic small arms fire between he two forces.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
After a recent post by the Deputy Chairman of the Russia Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, threatening President Trump and the United States. President Trump has just released a fiery midnight post on Truth Social, stating that India and Russia “can take their dead economies down together, for all I care.” Adding that, “Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let’s keep it that way,” before ending the post with, “and tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks he’s still President, to watch his words. He’s entering very dangerous territory!”
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1950791978758615288?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - War of words heating up. Observers suggest that Trump is tired of Russia speaking one thing to him and OTOH increasing attacks on Ukraine on the other.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-90 range, mostly sunny.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Another big air attack by Russia overnight. Ukrainian air defense shot down or suppressed 291 air targets overnight, including 288 Shahed-type drones and 3 Iskander-K cruise missiles, out of 317 launched by Russia. The main focus of the attack were Kyiv and Pavlohrad. Kyiv suffered significantly.
Overnight, Ukraine continued its drone campaign against Russian logistical hubs. Explosions have been reported at the Kotelnikovo railway station in the Volgograd region.
Explosions were also reported in Penza, Russia, at the “Radiozavod” plant. This particular plant specializes in producing advanced communications systems for the Russian armed forces
Russian losses per 31/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1070 men
+1 tank
+1 AFV
+16 artillery
+1 AD system
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Chasiv Iar town in Donetsk region of Ukraine
Summary —
The war continues its current cycle of varying drone/missile attacks and moderately heavy fighting on the front. More minor gains by Russia of a village reduced to rubble.
Waiting to see if Trump’s warnings of tariff/sanctions against Russia will have any effect when his 10 day period is over. As observed recently with Iran, Trump appears to display weakness and only bravado until his deadline is passed, then action. I think putin may believe Trump is toothless. I wouldn’t underestimate my opponent to that extent.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Hostage negations dead
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Israel has issued a formal response to a position paper sent by Hamas several days ago, where Israeli officials made it clear they reject Hamas’s demand to release live terrorists in exchange for the bodies of hostages.
Hamas has informed mediators that it will not enter negotiations with Israel until the humanitarian situation in Gaza improves, according to two sources who spoke with The Jerusalem Post.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Canadian Prime Minister: “We will recognize a Palestinian state in September”
President Trump threatened Canada last night, following the stupidity of the “recognition of a Palestinian state”: “It will be difficult for us to make a trade deal with them.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas has won a global victory of sorts with the declaring of nations favoring the establishment and recognition of a Palestinian State in September. It has hardened its stance in refusing to release hostages and given it a relatively short period of time that it needs to hold out. Israel seems prepared to continue to focus down on the elimination of Hamas, knowing full well that they will not be getting the hostages back short a complete Israeli surrender, and then it would be unlikely.
Talk increases on annexing Gaza into formal Israeli territory, probably the biggest stick Israel can wield against the two staters across the globe.
In spite of Lebanons complaints, Israel will continue to strike hezbollah members and sites since the Lebanese govt has been very slack in enforcing the disarmament and exclusion Hezbollah from S Lebanon.
Syria will continue to see sporadic Israeli air strikes on weapons storage areas. Israel will also continue to closely monitor sunni “tribal” militias in S Syria.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
In its largest Iran-related action since 2018, US Treasury is sanctioning more than 115 individuals, entities, and vessels that make up a vast shipping empire controlled by Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, son of a top political advisor to the Supreme Leader.
OBSERVATION - The economic noose is drawing tighter. Now comes the enforcement phase.
Lebanon -
Lebanese President: We have confirmed our readiness to withdraw Hezbollah’s weapons and hand them over to the Lebanese Army.
We asked the US for an immediate halt to Israeli air, land, and sea attacks.
We asked the US for Israel to withdraw behind the internationally recognized borders.
Israel has not adhered to its commitments under the ceasefire understandings.
Israeli attacks leave no opportunity to violate Lebanon’s sovereignty
OBSERVATION - As noted under Israel above, Lebanon has been very slack in its requirement to disarm and remove Hezbollah from S Lebanon. Hezbollah maintains a very strong presence in the Lebanese govt, providing its operatives a degree of cover from persecution.
Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025
Downgraded due to current ceasefire and disengagement of combatants.
Israeli warplanes targeted Brigade 107 in the Jableh countryside, Latakia Governorate, Syria. Thought not specified, most likely an ammo storage site.