Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2025
For historical reference TM2024 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?q=1&;page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah
I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.
So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025
***
President Trump is reportedly weighing the use of emergency powers to override court challenges and deploy federal troops to Portland and Chicago amid ongoing unrest. This involves involving the Insurrection Act to enforce our federal laws.
***
Videos on social media showing Portland PD giving Antifa et al TIPS on how to avoid federal troops..
***
Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson signs an order creating so-called “ICE-FREE ZONES” to block federal agents from staging raids on criminal aliens:
***
Meanwhile, Chicago PD opened a can of worms . . .
After Chicago police were ordered to refuse requests for assistance by ICE agents who were under threat Saturday, the national and Illinois Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) organizations issued a joint statement condemning the order that left law enforcement officers in danger.
In the statement, National Fraternal Order of Police President Yoes and State Lodge President Southwood say they’re “shocked and appalled” by reports the Chicago police officers were ordered not to respond to a call for help when U.S. Immigration and Customs and Enforcement (ICE) agents had their vehicle rammed and blocked in by 10 vehicles.
The officers were then assaulted by protesters – including a woman wielding a semi-automatic weapon who ended up being shot during the attack.
“[I]t appears that officers from the Chicago Police Department were ordered not to assist a group of ICE agents while they were physically threatened by what appears to be an angry mob,” the FOP statement says. “We at the National FOB, as well as our members at the Illinois FOB condemn these actions.”
Helping fellow officers in danger is the “number one rule in law enforcement” – and politics should never stand in the way – the FOP presidents explain:
“Let me be clear, both the National FOB and the Illinois FOP believe that when an officer calls for assistance, you answer, no matter what.”
“The number one rule in law enforcement is that we respond to any calls from officers in distress.”
“Whether you agree about immigration enforcement or not, when a law enforcement officer is in trouble, nothing should stand in the way of fellow officers rendering assistance.”
OBSERVATION - Rank and file Chicago police officers need to stand up to this horrible action, and quickly.
***
A suspected Latin Kings gang leader is now in custody after allegedly offering cash bounties of up to $10,000 to capture and kill a senior immigration officer involved in Chicago’s “Operation Midway Blitz.”
***
Training has been reported for Antifa et al in Philadelphia and Kalifornia. Attendees being taught tactics and other methods of using violence in their protests.
***
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Trump’s fight with rogue judges may be a precursor to elimination of their ‘powers’ to interfere with NG call ups for potential violence in the 2026 mid terms and definitely the 2028 presidential campaign seasons. The left sees the line of defense from their rogue judges failing to stem the actions ordered by Trump and are gearing up for more violent confrontations.
Law enforcement leadership in both Portland and Chicago are under the microscope for their tacit support of Antifa and associate violence. Damning emails and radio transcripts have caught them with their pants down overtly pulling back support for ICE and other federal agents. This is just giving Trump more ammo to justify the federal deployment of NG forces to protect ICE facilities. Civic leaders in both cities and states are overplaying their hands and once the TROs are trashed by appeals courts, they will be stuck paying the bills, so to speak.
Even with all the delays, Antifa in both locations hasn’t really had that big of a presence. In Portland, pro-ICE counter protestors were able to come out and confront Antifa - and essentially get a way with it, as Antifa couldn’t mount any aggressive response, not having the numbers needed for such a response.
POLITICAL FRONT –
No movement on passing a CR to end the shutdown
***
FBI Director Kash Patel just exposed how Biden hack Jack Smith abused his power against US lawmakers in his J6 probe, saying he seized their phone records for ‘political purposes’.
Here’s what he wrote:
“We recently uncovered proof that phone records of U.S. lawmakers were seized for political purposes. That abuse of power ends now. Under my leadership, the FBI will deliver truth and accountability, and never again be weaponized against the American people.”
OBSERVATION - This corruption is orders of magnitude greater than that exposed by Watergate. It isn’t even close.
Illegal Immigration –
While much of the eyes on illegal immigration have been focused on protests/violence directed towards key ICE facilities, the tale of the tape at the border tells a much larger story. Last month only 20 something apprehensions were made, this in comparison to over 180K last year. By large, the spigot of illegals flooding into the nation has been shut off. Evidence also showing that hundreds of thousands are self deporting, rather than face arrest and forceful deportment.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Russia increasing the propaganda pressure to try to prevent Trump from letting Ukraine have Tomahawk cruise missiles. These missiles would give the Ukrainians the capability to strike harder and deeper into Russia. This would include Russian manufacturing plants for Shahed drones.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with increasing rain across the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and 152 attack drones, mostly Shaheds, from multiple directions including Kursk, Orel, and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian air defenses, EW units, and mobile teams shot down or suppressed 88 drones. Strikes were recorded at 10 sites.
Russian losses per 07/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1020 men
+3 tanks
+6 AFVs
+29 artillery
+1 AD system
Ukrainian Defense forces have cleared Sichneve village of Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novovasylivske village of Zaporizhzhia region and Fedorivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
At night, a large drone attack on Russia was recorded: explosions were reported in Nizhny Novgorod and Belgorod, while airspace over Yaroslavl was temporarily closed
***
Trump says he has made a decision on sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. He wants to first confirm how they will be used
Analysis and Future Operations —
Ukraine ADA continues to remain overextended in the face of larger numbers of drones.
Action on the ground continues to reflect moderate heavy fighting as each side reportedly takes terrain.
One aspect that has faded away and replaced by drones is Russian superiority in artillery. The number of tubes available to fire just a year ago gave them a significant advantage. That advantage has been lost due to a couple of factors. First, Russian forces have lost a lot of artillery pieces over the course of the war that they haven’t been able to replace. NK artillery is coming to the front, but has reliability problems as well as specific caliber that isn’t standard for Russian forces. Second, in addition to the pieces lost from direct combat, Russian artillery has simply wore the tubes out - with few replacements available.
However, the biggest factor is that Ukraine has developed FPV drones capable to going further into Russian territory to locate and destroy artillery. Thus Russian artillery is reluctant to fire as it would give its location away to Ukraine recon drones who then relay the locations to the FPV attack drones. Within this threat, Russian artillery response has been slowed, in many cases allowing Ukrainian forces to attain their objectives or deny support to Russian troops trying to get to theirs.
The ongoing developments in the drone wars opens the window to future combat issues that opposing forces will need to address.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Next up - Oct 7 memorial services.
Key overnight developments -
- Oct 7 remembrances.
- Israel continues airstrikes in Gaza while Hamas delays accepting the Trump proposal in Egyptain talks.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
On this day, we pause to remember the horrific events of October 7, 2023—a day that scarred the soul of Israel and shocked the world. Nearly 1,200 innocent lives were brutally taken. Hundreds of men, women, and children were kidnapped and held hostage; many of whom are now dead. Countless women were subjected to unimaginable cruelty and humiliation before losing their lives. Families were shattered, homes burned to the ground, and entire communities left in grief and devastation.
Yet even in the shadow of such evil, we have witnessed extraordinary courage. We remember the victims, pray for the hostages, and stand steadfast with Israel in her fight for life and freedom.
Am Yisrael Chai — the people of Israel live.
https://x.com/beholdisrael/status/1975441019077329065?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
Israeli army Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir has instructed the military to raise its level of alert to the highest possible amid the Sukkot holiday, the army says. The move comes following an assessment Zamir held earlier today with the Israeli army’s top brass, the military says
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Yesterday, indirect Gaza talks began between Hamas, Israel in Egypt. As such the final 72 hour countdown has not been implemented as Hamas has not accepted the plan, rather, it is seeking to delay it via calls for negotiating the whole plan.
With a ceasefire not emplaced, IAF continued airstrikes of Hamas targets in and around Gaza City.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Any temporary pause in Israeli operations in Gaza has long ceased as Hamas trys to delay and modify the Trump plan to their satisfaction - proposals that have been soundly rejected over the course of the past year.
Hamas has an unspoken internal struggle going on between their political and military branches. Their political side is largely isolated from the fight, residing in Qatar and other friendly countries, while the military side is filled with death cult jihadis who want to inflict as much damage to Israel as possible in a fanatical last stand, thinking the arab world will rally militarily to their aid.
They are both being held to a shortened time line to accept the proposal. Israel will not back down from ongoing military operations until Hamas formally agrees to release the hostages within a 72 hour time frame starting on formal agreement of the plan. Their stalling isn’t working this time. They continue to lose troops and ground to Israel.
IMHO, Hamas will sabotage the talks with overt demands that are already been declared as hard no’s. Their propaganda wing will try to paint is as the fault of Israel, but I don’t see that gaining much traction this time around. Too much international support for the original Trump plan that deliberate Hamas efforts to sabotage the effort will be too much to overlook this time.
Syria -
Anarchy now in the city of Aleppo, Syria: Kurds outside the city are attacking with heavy weapons, while Kurdish fighters inside are attacking Julani’s forces.
After the Alawites the Christians and the Druze, is this the turn of the Kurds to be slaughtered by the ISIS gangs of the new Syrian president, the darling of the West?
A ceasefire has been reached in Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsood and al-Ashrafiyah neighborhoods after clashes had broken out between the SDF and Syrian Army. - Syria TV
OBSERVATION - Like many larger middle eastern cities, different sects occupy different portions of the city. Aleppo is one such city, where the Kurdish sector has been progressively cut off from the larger Kurdish homelands to the east. The sunni forces that brought Julani into power in Syria are heavily backed by Turkey who see all Kurds as terrorists. They have been targeting minority elements all across Syria over the past year. Most recently attacking the Druze in S Syria. The Kurds, however, are a very tough people and serious fighters.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
Trump has called off efforts to reach a diplomatic agreement with Venezuela, U.S. officials say; paving the way for a potential military escalation against drug traffickers or Nicolás Maduro’s government - NYT
OBSERVATION - Some view the discussions as a cover to have an excuse to go after Maduro for a govt change. Maduro has been currying favor with Russia and China as of late and US response may well be designed to go beyond stopping the narco terrorists. Some even go as far as this could be the start of a new “Monroe Doctrine” policy to keep Russia, China and even Iran out of the hemisphere.
Misc of Note –
Testing of your preparations are an essential component of readiness. At the home, we had a power outage of about 5 hours during the night. Found that many of our smaller flashlights we had staged around the house at one time were dead and broken - grandkids loved to play with them. We are taking steps to remedy. (BTW, we had other sources of light available such as candles and oil lanterns. But for a short term event, battery lights were the go to)
But this did give us a chance to see how our response could be to a weather related outage - we knew the outage we had would’t last long as power crews were replacing old poles just down the street.
Don’t let your equipment sit untested or used. For example, while we lived in kalifornia, we used our solar oven just about every day - saved energy and cooling costs. Now we test out how to use our free standing fireplace to cook foods.
The time to make sure your stuff ‘works’ is to take it out of the box and actually USE it for a while. Your mental thoughts for its use may clash with reality and you have to modify your plans - which is a good thing to find out now, rather that when a real disaster strike.
Thanks Godzilla.
EXCELLENT NEWS!
And great advice on the preps, especially in light of the u rest in this country and the long term forecast for the winter this year. Sounds like it's going to be rough in some spots, the NE for one.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The United Nations just put a giant target on the backs of homeschoolers worldwide. Under the guise of “human rights,” the U.N.’s controversial “education” bureaucracy is officially demanding that all governments regulate and control home education—if they allow it at all.
The U.N.’s demands include “education standards” for homeschooling, as well as “accountability” to government. The outfit is also demanding mandatory registration, forced “evaluations” of homeschoolers by authorities, compulsory “home visits,” and much more. In fact, the agency is even calling for U.N.-approved values and attitudes to be imposed on children across a wide array of issues, with U.N. control of “education content.”
The new U.N. Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) report on home education, titled “Homeschooling through a human rights lens,” lays out the most draconian global assault on home education in history. The powerful global agency, long dominated by card-carrying communists, claims governments must bring homeschooling under their thumb—for the benefit of the children, of course.
OBSERVATION - The left’s unending efforts to brainwash our children, in addition to controlling other aspects of their lives and essentially removing them from the control of their parents has been very evident here in the US and exposed in a greater detail during the wuhan plandemic. The UN, among other globalist entities, provides the support and impetus towards this goal.
***
Another domino fell Friday in the collapse of collusion by financial institutions seeking to impose net-zero ideology on the American marketplace, as the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) closed its doors.
“Net-zero,” which envisions achieving zero-sum emissions of so-called “greenhouse” gases, particularly carbon dioxide, is one element of the radical-left’s ESG (Environment, Social, Governance) ideology. Financial institutions belonging to groups such as NZBA agree to discriminate against, or in favor of, companies based on whether or not they adhere to net-zero mandates.
“On paper, the NZBA, which was convened by the UN Environment Programme finance initiative but led by banks, encouraged members to slash the carbon footprint of their investments and help drive the transition to net zero emissions by 2050,” The Guardian noted Friday.
Over the past two years, such collusive efforts have come under scrutiny for being potential anti-trust violations.
OBSERVATION - The influence of net zero globalists have been taking serious hits over the past year as the waste and excessive costs of these green energy schemes have come to fruition. The inertia of the drive will continue for a while, but hopefully smart govts can breach the losses and get back to sound science and energy production.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025
***
CHICAGO -
Chicago Mayor Johnson just declared that war with Trump is “on the table” during a press conference after signing an EO establishing “no ICE zones” across the city.
When asked what’s on the table if the Trump administration continues deporting noncitizens, he replied, “Everything.”
He escalated further, reminding the press that he thinks the “right-wing” in America wants a “Civil War rematch,” adding that the “President of the United States has declared war.”
https://x.com/MediasLies/status/1975220254356730094
Chicago’s Democrat Mayor Brandon Johnson suggested on Tuesday that the Chicago Police should arrest ICE agents and other federal officers who he claims are breaking his new executive order aimed at hampering immigration enforcement.
OBSERVATION - Johnson is treading on very thin ice. His approval rating by one poll is down to 4% and such inflammatory statements are crossing over into insurrection. 96% probably would approve of his arrest for such.
Still stinging from the national rebuke for failing to come to the aid of federal law enforcement, Chicago police will not be stupid enough to try to arrest feds on city property.
***
FBI Director Kash Patel just revealed that he’s surging FBI resources to Chicago to take on violent crime and make the streets safe and help DHS.
***
Federalized Soldiers with the Texas Army National Guard have arrived at the Elwood Army Reserve Center in the far southwestern suburbs of Chicago, after several hundred were ordered there earlier this week by U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth against the wishes of Illinois Governor JB Pritzker.
OBSERVATION - Likely waiting for final deployment to the ICE facility once some to the legal wrangling are over.
PORTLAND -
Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said on Fox News Tuesday that she issued an ultimatum to Portland’s top officials to contain Antifa demonstrations.
Noem said she told Portland’s mayor point-blank that federal authorities would “cover him up” with a surge of manpower if city leadership failed to enforce basic security measures.
Noem said she delivered the warning during face-to-face meetings with both the mayor and the city’s police chief. She also met with the state police superintendent.
“I met with [the police chief] and also the superintendent of the state police. I told them what we wanted. We wanted more security here at the building, a bigger buffer zone to keep our officers safe. We wanted to have their streets opened up again and not let the anarchists run this city anymore,” Noem said.
OBSERVATION - Key to this is a face to face dressing down of Portland officials. Videos showing the participants leaving the meeting showed the police chief with a very red face looking like he got a serious a$$ chewing. Noem knows she has the full backing of Trump in this matter and made it painfully clear they better shape up.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
A Dallas-based auto lender built on giving car loans to illegals has just gone belly up, and it’s dragging Wall Street down with it.
Tricolor Holdings was once hailed by the US Treasury as a “community development” success story. Now, they’ve just filed for bankruptcy as fraud allegations and a full-blown federal investigation overtake them. The company, which sold overpriced used cars to illegals and wrapped the scheme in a feel-good “social lending” label, is leaving major US banks like JPMorgan, Barclays, and Fifth Third staring at massive losses.
***
Gold has broken past $4000/oz mark, due to a dollar weakened over concerns on the duration and depth of the ongoing govt shutdown.
Silver poised to break $40/oz.
***
(FO) The Trump administration could announce a bailout plan for U.S. farmers hit by the U.S.-China trade war as soon as today. According to sources familiar with the plan, initially the bailout plan will give $15 billion in aid to farmers, but the government shutdown could hinder implementation.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., told Newsmax on Tuesday that former members of the Biden administration should face criminal consequences following reports that Republican senators were surveilled by U.S. intelligence agencies.
Tuberville’s comments came after Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, asserted Monday that the Biden administration’s FBI targeted eight Republican senators as part of an election-related investigation, calling it “worse than Watergate.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/tommy-tuberville-biden-administration-fbi/2025/10/07/id/1229422/
OBSERVATION - Absent motivation from Bondi to get the job done, those involved, including Smith, are likely to skate.
***
New Harvard CAPS/Harris poll:
71% of Americans support using the U.S. military to kill drug traffickers in Latin America, including:
- 89% of Republicans
- 67% of Independents
- 56% of Democrats
OBSERVATION - Democrats are once again finding themselves on the losing side of the argument.
***
The Schumer Shutdown is the gift that keeps on giving. Not only did the Democrats leave open the door to massive federal workforce layoffs, as we’ve reported here at PJ Media, but now they’ve created a situation where the Trump administration finally broke the Democrat gridlock in getting its nominees confirmed.
Tuesday night, the Republican majority in the Senate was able to confirm a batch of 107 of Donald Trump’s nominees. It did so through a party-line vote and reduced the number of nominees waiting for confirmation to “double digits,” according to Fox News.
OBSERVATION - More evidence that the democrat decision to block the CR was a knee jerk reaction to the rabid leftists in the party and the consequences not well thought out.
China -
(FO) Taiwanese officials are reviewing the national medical logistics to isolate it from exploitation from China. Taiwanese defense officials are reopening negotiations with the United States on acquiring the MH-60R anti-submarine helicopter for the Republic of China Navy.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
The momentum for a Ukrainian settlement that emerged after Putin and Trump’s meeting in Alaska has been exhausted, according to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov.
Logistics –
Russia has lost most of the 12,000-strong tank force it had in 2022. Currently, Russia has fewer than 3,000 tanks and uses them sparingly due to the lethality of Ukrainian drones
Economic Impact –
Belarus quadrupled its gasoline exports to Russia in September as Moscow faced fuel shortages due to Ukrainian strikes on its energy infrastructure, Reuters reports. About 49,000 tons (14,500 barrels/day) were shipped by rail from Belarusian refineries to Russia last month, according to agency sources.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with increasing rain across the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 183 strike drones (Shahed, Gerbera, etc.) on various fronts of which 100 were Shaheds. As of 09:00, Ukrainian air defenses shot down or neutralized 154 of them. 22 hit 11 target locations.
Overnight, Russian drones targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure. A strike on a thermal power plant injured staff and caused serious damage to the station’s equipment, according to DTEK.
Russian losses per 08/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1010 men
+2 tanks
+5 AFVs
+26 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novohryhorivka village of Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine
Russian media confirm a railway line between Stroganovo and Mshinskaya was blown up in the morning, causing a locomotive and several cars of a military cargo train to derail. Traffic on the section has been halted, with passenger and freight trains rerouted and delayed for several hours. Security services are clearing the site.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Moderately high Russian drone count. Action on the ground still moderately intense based on reported Russian losses.
Report on Belarus exports of gasoline to Russia further identifies the fact that Ukraine’s offensive against Russian oil industry is hurting it deeply. I wouldn’t be surprised to see concentrated attacks on Belarus pipelines on the Russian side of the border to impact this source as well.
Europe / NATO General –
Germany will authorize police to shoot down threatening drones, says the interior minister. The country is also exchanging information with Israel and Ukraine to strengthen its own anti-drone defenses. — AFP
***
After his seventh chosen Prime Minister resigned a month after being appointed and just hours after presenting the ‘new cabinet’, French President Emmanuel Macron is in the deepest crisis of his troublesome mandate.
The British Times writes that Macron has become a ‘lame duck running out of options.’
French newspaper Le Monde adds that Macron faces a hard choice of three scenarios: 1) appoint a new prime minister, 2) dissolve the National Assembly again and hold elections, or 3) – in the worst case – resign himself.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/10/lame-duck-macron-clings-power-after-another-french/
OBSERVATION - Once the pretty boy of European politics, Macron has hit the wall. His popularity is low, due in part to the unregulated immigration of moslem third worlders who’ve turned large portions of France into a cesspool, as well as an economy in a world of hurt.
***
Czech election this past week saw a billionaire, ex-premier, and pro-Trump nationalist named Andrej Babiš roared back into the catbird seat, nearly wiping the floor with his campaign opponents.
The 71-year-old Babiš, head of the ANO (YES) Party and no stranger to the national stage, has pledged to work as a pro-Western, pro-European leader. Nonetheless, he has some positions that have Ursula von der Leyen and the Brussels Brahmins very skittish about this latest populist takeover.
For one thing, Andrej Babiš is considered too friendly with the leaders of Hungary and Slovakia, both of which have proven to be obstinately opposed to European plans for Ukraine and Russia.
OBSERVATION - Another populist victory but one that is concerning in another way. Opposition to the EU leadership has allowed some degree of affinity to Russia to creep into national positions.
***
The Latvian Ministry of Defense has announced it is extending the nighttime airspace closure along its eastern border with Russia, stating that the restrictions would remain in effect nightly from October 8, between 8:00pm and 7:00am EEST, adding that they would remain in place “until further decisions are made” regarding coordination with other Baltic States and NATO Operation Eastern Sentry.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Talks continue in Egypt, with representatives from Turkey, Qatar and the US in attendance
- Hamas increases its demands on Israel in exchange for hostage releases.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Interesting metric on how the fight in Gaza has gone -
On October 7, 2023, Hamas fired 4,300 rockets at Israel in a single day.
October 7, 2024: 14.
October 7, 2025: one.
***
The Israeli Navy has intercepted a new flotilla attempting to break the blockade of Gaza, and is escorting the ships and their passengers to an Israeli port.
The nine ships set sail from Italy with about 100 activists on board. The IDF says all passengers are safe and will be deported soon.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Significant difficulties in talks in Sharm el-Sheikh. Hamas refuses the disarmament clause, demands a full withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip, and insists on agreeing on all the outline’s clauses before releasing the hostages. In fact, Hamas has not moved from its positions in previous rounds and does not accept the Trump outline.
There are disagreements within the organization, but currently the side with the tougher stance (the miiltary side) is prevailing. Israel is disappointed with Qatar and Turkey, who promised to bring Hamas’s agreement to the outline, and so far again have failed to deliver.
Hamas: “Lists of prisoners to be released were exchanged today according to the agreed-upon criteria and numbers”
Hamas is now demanding that Israel return the bodies of its slain leaders, Yahya and Mohammed Sinwar, as part of the Gaza negotiations, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Top US envoys and prominent regional figures (Turkey and Qatar) have joined the third day of indirect talks between Israel and Hamas in Egypt on President Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza.Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a close confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is also due to arrive on Wednesday afternoon.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Four Houthi drones fired from Yemen were intercepted over Eilat in southern Israel today, with no immediate reports of casualties.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Turkish official: Director of Turkish Intelligence İbrahim Kalın will attend the ceasefire negotiations on Gaza tomorrow in Sharm El-Sheikh. The priority for Turkey is achieving a ceasefire, conducting a hostage/prisoner exchange & ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas playing the ‘yes, but’ negotiation tactic it has for the past years. The others are in a limited toleration mode. Should Hamas fail to make serious concessions, these talks will break down once again as in the past. The capitol they may have gotten from a recognition of a palestinian ‘state’ is fast running dry.
Meanwhile, Israel forces continue to prosecute the assault on Gaza City. Israel is set to continue the fight until Hamas agrees on the plan and starts the 72 hour clock.
Trump’s support for Israeli action to militarily remove Hamas still stands should Hamas refuse to the plan.
As negotiations have begun to fall apart, I don’t see any break thru coming any time soon.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Iran is reportedly pursuing alternative mechanisms, which may include barter systems, to mitigate the impact of snapback sanctions. Iran’s moves to mitigate sanctions are probably driven by concerns that sanctions on the Iranian economy will trigger an economic downturn.
OBSERVATION - Reflects a degree of desperation on the part of the mullahs. If the economy continues to go down (it is already in a downturn, this would only accelerate it), the motivation for civil unrest will rise proportionately .
Syria -
More clashes erupt between Kurdish forces and Al Qaeda-linked Syrian regime elements in Aleppo.
Turkey –
Erdogan: We will not allow a cycle of instability in Syria; We are closely monitoring all developments related to Syria; The SDF must fulfill its promise and fully integrate with the Syrian state; The territorial integrity of Syria is essential to us; Turkey will continue to stand by the Syrian people
OBSERVATION - That wont carry water as long as Turkish backed militias continue to attack the Kurds.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
DOJ’s office of legal counsel has produced a classified legal opinion that justifies lethal strikes against a secret and expansive list of cartels and suspected drug traffickers—beyond just those designated as militants by Trump admin, sources say
The US reiterates that it has no diplomatic presence in Venezuela and avoids commenting on the alleged attack plot against its embassy.
Ping to the first item of post 944.
A globalist attack on homeschooling worldwide.
“He escalated further, reminding the press that he thinks the “right-wing” in America wants a “Civil War rematch,””
Rematch because the wrong side won?
Clear thinking there, Mayor Johnson...
I wouldn't bet on that.
That mayor of theirs needs to be removed from office. Good thing he's nothing more than a failed mayor of a failed city. If he were in any more prominent position, he could do some real damage.
Thanks Godzilla.
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