Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

Globalism / Great Reset –

Globalists probably taking note of the numerous rallies that have memorialized Charlie Kirks across the globe.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

UPCOMING -
- 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***
Weekend outlook - No significant protest events by the left, only localized marches/protests with low probability of violence. Leftist may attempt to disrupt any Charlie Kirk memorials this weekend, so the possibility of localized violence there could be high.

***
We are finding out that FBI director Patel pushed back against the foot draggers even within his agency. He broke from standard FBI protocol in the best possible way: against all recommendations from his own people, he demanded the immediate public release of surveillance footage showing the suspect.

That cracked the case wide open. Within hours, the bureau had released crystal-clear images of Robinson, surveillance video of his movements, and offered a substantial reward. The media blitz worked exactly as Patel intended—Robinson’s own family recognized him from the footage and contacted authorities.

***
The backlash against the left’s vile comments regarding Kirk’s assassination continues to grow and is gaining results. Many of these repugnant individuals will be standing in the unemployment lines on Monday.

They cheered that words justified the murder of Kirk. Now they are crying because their words have cost them a job. They should be forever grateful that the crusaders on the right did’t shoot them for cause instead.

Developments in the case have apparently opened a whole new can of worms. Yesterday it was revealed that Tyler Robinson was in an active sexual relationship with a transgender partner is being ‘extremely cooperative’ with the FBI, sources tell Fox News Digital. Bureau officials confirmed that Robinson was in a “romantic relationship” who is believed to be Lance Twiggs, 22, a male transitioning to a female and a “furry” (a subculture within the LGBTQetc realm), and that they shared an apartment in Saint George, Utah. Those FBI officials told Fox News Digital that Robinson’s partner is fully cooperating with the FBI’s investigation. The FBI declined to comment on whether Robinson’s partner would be charged with a crime.

Along with this is the discovery of posts on Discord and other social media sites strongly suggesting that the broader crowd of LGBT and Antifa elements may have been involved in planning and support for the attack. Discussions on Discord, has Robinson posting comments to others who recognized his photo put out by the FBI. In them Robinson tacitly admits to being the gunman. Speculation that some of these individuals on these sites may be identified and charged as assessors should documented discussions show foreknowledge and support of Robinson’s plans to kill Kirk.

The meat of these revelations have been enough for the FBI, in coordination with state agencies, to formally open investigations into multiple leftist organizations in Utah (though not necessarily limited there) for possible advanced knowledge of the Charlie Kirk incident.

WRAP UP - This murder and the glee posted by leftists have created a perfect storm for the right and the administration to take offensive action against the growing movement to murder those on the right.

The left should be on their knees thankful that conservatives / right has not applied their logical conclusions to them. You make “hate” speech, you are worthy of death. In some ways some may be realizing that their speech can be equally considered as hate, making them targets. I don’t see the right making the movement to escalate to assassinations and other violence at this stage. I do think elements may be in the planning process should leftists continue down this path.

Breakthroughs in leftist / Antifa based social media chat sites brought out so far have given the FBI some red meat for digging deeper and hopefully prosecution. Trump’s anger may trigger (finally) DoJ action such as RICO to target the finances of these groups.

That said, there are plenty leftists out there feeling emboldened to duplicate the assassination. They have gotten the blood they desired and want more. Doxxing and cancelation efforts by the right may dampen this enthusiasm but may also create more resentment / radicalization. Lawsuits hitting the facilitators of leftist violence and the social sites that openly host them will do a lot in the long run.

We are not out of the woods yet

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to make its first interest rate cut of the year at its policy meeting this week, spurred by a weakening jobs market — but political tension looms over the gathering.

Since the bank’s last reduction in December, it has held interest rates at a range between 4.25 percent and 4.50 percent as policymakers monitor the effects of Trump’s sweeping tariffs on inflation.

Analysts now broadly expect a 25 basis points rate cut at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, as hiring slows.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/rate-cut-fed/2025/09/14/id/1226335/

OBSERVATION - A quarter point reduction will encourage the market, but have little immediate impact to the economy with overall rates still over 4 percent. The big driver is that to sustain the current rates the fed will crash the job market. Inflation has been under control, even with tariffs for the past 4-5 months, so the Fed is running out of excuses to keep rates high.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Senate considering the ‘nuclear option’ to pass budget related bills to avoid govt shutdown.

TRUMP Watch –

During a live studio appearance on Fox & Friends in New York City, Trump announced his plans to pay his respects to Kirk by attending his funeral in AZ.

China -

Trump calls for 50-100% tariffs on China until the Ukraine war ends, says he is ready to impose major sanctions on Russia.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russian drones penetrated Romanian and Polish airspace overnight. The Romanian and Polish armies were been placed on war alert.

Trump readying higher tariffs on Russia oil due to drone penetrations into Poland and now Romania.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-70 range with some scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Ukrainian air defenses intercepted or jammed 52 drones, mostly Shaheds and Gerans, launched from multiple directions including Kursk, Bryansk, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk. One Iskander-M missile and 6 drones struck three locations.

Russian losses per 14/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+880 men
+3 tanks
+42 artillery
+1 MLRS

Ukrainian heavy attack drones penetrated over 1,400 km of Russian airspace to hit the Rosneft Ufa oil refinery. Videos on social media show an Ukrainian AJ-22 slamming into the refinery, setting it ablaze.

Several massive explosions rocked the Kirishi Oil Refinery near St. Petersburg in Northwestern Russia earlier tonight, amidst reports of a large-scale drone attack against the Leningrad Oblast by Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces are advancing west of Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillia axis. With a Russian unit still encircled near Kucheriv Yar, reinforcements trying to reach them risk being cut off too. Gray area near Volodymyrivka-Mayak has increased.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Lowered drone strikes only mean a big surge is in the offing. That has been the pattern for the past few months.

Ukrainian efforts targeting Russia oil production have hurt so much that putin has spoken about the runaway cost of fuel for your average Russian - though silent on the cause. Some estimates indicate now over 20% of Russian supplies and families are smoldering and off line.

Russian efforts on the front are still pretty minimal. Ukraine continues to counter attack and pinch off some penetrations from last month while moving incrementally in some sectors.

Russia dangerously poking the bear with additional penetration of NATO airspace, now including Romania (though this isn’t the first time drones have entered here).

Belarus -

“Zapad 2025” ongoing.

Poland –

Another Russian drone incursion last night.

Europe / NATO General –

Romania will appeal to the UN General Assembly regarding the violation of airspace by a Russian drone, said Oana Toiu, head of the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

***
President Donald Trump said Saturday he believes the Russia-Ukraine war would end if all NATO countries stopped buying oil from Russia and placed tariffs on China of 50% to 100% for its purchases of Russian petroleum.

Trump posted on his social media site that NATO’S commitment to winning the war “has been far less than 100%” and the purchase of Russian oil by some members of the alliance is “shocking.” As if speaking with NATO members, he said: “It greatly weakens your negotiating position, and bargaining power, over Russia.”

Since 2023, NATO member Turkey has been the third largest buyer of Russian oil, after China and India. according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Other members of the 32-state alliance involved in purchasing Russian oil include Hungary and Slovakia.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/trump-nato-russian/2025/09/13/id/1226291/

OBSERVATION - Trump was correct in 2016 in his warning about the reliance on Russian oil and gas supplies to Europe. Painful as it will be in the short term, severing the supply line will hit Russian war coffers in the immediate and longer term. It is ridiculous that on one hand NATO/Europe decries the war in Ukraine, while on the other they are helping Russia to pay for it.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.

Key overnight developments -

- More strikes taking down towers in Gaza City

- SecState Rubio in country for meetings

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

The Israeli army spokesman in Arabic issued a repeated evacuation notice to residents of the Gaza Port area and the Rimal neighborhood.

The Israeli army announced that it had killed militants who raided Israel on October 7 and Hamas field commanders. Among the militants killed was Yousef Mahmoud Muhammad Juma’a, head of a terrorist cell in the terrorist organization that raided Kibbutz Alumim and participated in the massacre. “The terrorist planned terrorist plots against the State of Israel and Israeli army forces during the war and carried them out”

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Axios, citing Israeli officials, reports that Rubio has indicated in private meetings that he does not oppose annexing the West Bank.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza City continues to be progressively turned into rubble. Large scale ground invasion by Israel expected toward the end of next week.

Meetings with Rubio will have some considerable focus on annexation of Judea and Samaria. This is Israel’s greatest leverage against the efforts to force a two-state solution. That solution can only come out of the UN from a Security Council decree - and that will be vetoed by the US. The recent vote is a popularity contest basically, so these nations can continue to get money from rich Arab gulf states. Were that money not flowing, there would not be the initiative to force a two-state solution.

Syria will continue to see IDF incursions in the south targeting Hezbollah affiliated cells as well as hitting ammo dumps

Israel will continue to hit Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, in a back door way to assist the govt in eventually disarming and disbanding Hezbollah.

I really don’t seen any further action against Iran at this time unless something changes significantly.

Houthis continue to FAFO campaign.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

UPCOMING -
- 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***
Relatively quiet weekend. Kirk memorial services were interrupted in some locations by individuals ore small groups. They were quickly taken care of in many instances by Kirk mourners until police arrived to take the instigator(s) away.

***
The FBI and state agencies have launched investigations into multiple LEFTIST groups in Utah for possible advanced knowledge of the Charlie Kirk assassination, per Axios

They’re also probing whether or not these groups provided material support after the kiIIing.

(NOTE - Though not specifically stated, other sources report that at least two of these groups may be “Armed Queers Salt Lake City” and the “Socialist Rifle Association.”)

At least one group deactivated their social media pages soon after the shot was taken.

https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1967075461990642037

NY Post is reporting that a neighbor saw several people driving cars with out of state plates going in & out of the apartment of Tyler Robinson & his transgender partner, Lance Twiggs - two weeks before the Charlie Kirk assassination.

https://x.com/JLRINVESTIGATES/status/1967028886929285523

GPS-based research flagged by analyst Tony Seruga suggests as many as a dozen co-conspirators may have been involved – raising the odds of a coordinated network rather than a lone-wolf incident.

OBSERVATION - This assassination has clearly opened a can of worms for the left and particularly the violent radical left. Some reports that so far at least 6 other individuals may have been aware of the plans to kill Kirk in advance. Clearly, the evidence so far leaked out, indicates a much broader effort and activity towards violence.

***
The Center Square reported Friday that “in the wake of the assassination of Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, thousands of social media posts appear to list politically conservative targets for assassination by the political left.” Some of the principal names that keep recurring on the left’s death wish lists are some of the most prominent critics of the transgender madness: Joe Rogan, JK Rowling, Ben Shapiro, and Matt Walsh, as well as President Donald Trump, Libs of TikTok’s Chaya Raichik, Elon Musk, and Andy Ngo.

https://pjmedia.com/robert-spencer/2025/09/14/okay-now-leftists-are-posting-hit-lists-of-the-people-they-want-to-murder-next-n4943704

OBSERVATIONS -
Kirk’s assassination and now apparent involvement of other groups on many levels may mark the potential beginning of a sequential campaign of targeted political violence. The message is obvious: revolutionary armed Marxist radicals won’t stop at Kirk. As I noted in a previous post, this developing campaign of targeted political violence is a characteristic of the developing Phase Two of gorilla war / CW efforts by the left.

***
The colder aspect of this active front against the left is the growing database of leftists who’ve reveled in the murder of Kirk. The totals are now over 50K and growing. There is no equivalent database marking the successes/responses to contacts with employers on these individuals, but rough estimate is that over 1000 are standing the unemployment line this morning. As noted previously, these are not your snot nosed soy boys in their mother’s basement, but media personalities, sports related, military, teachers (yes and a lot of them), nurses, doctors, etc. The breath and depth of the expressed hatred of Kirk and the right, combined with open desire for more murders (see above) has only abated a little.

The left is aghast at the concerted and dedicated effort not only to identify these vile posters, but in the fact that their employers have been so quick to fire them. They are not used to feeling what they have done to conservatives over the past decade plus. Again, because of the cover of media and political machines at the city thru national level providing them cover and vehicles to spew their bile, they feel invincible. The realization in some of the leftist circles is that the cloak of invisibility has been stripped away and they are vulnerable, causing a lot of backtracking and deletion of posts (however, the internet never forgets). The remainder are doubling and tripling down, calling for more violence (see above).

Democrat politicians like pelosi and schumer who’ve called for violent responses in the past are even scrambling for political cover. They say they never intended their ‘followers’ to actually carry out the acts of violence they have repeatedly called for over the past decade plus.

There may be some slow down in the doxxing and employer contact effort this week, but it has made a significant mark in that conservatives are done taking it on the chin and have been sufficiently motivate to fight back.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

Two suspects, 58-year-old Adeeb Nasir and 31-year-old Adil Nasir (both are Pakistani), were just arrested in Salt Lake City Utah for placing a failed bomb under a news media van covering the assassination of Charlie Kirk.

No details on what the target was, but based on pictures of their house, they really disliked Trump. Including a flag reading ‘Is He Dead Yet’.
Due to use of illegal drugs, Adeeb is a restricted person with a protective order against him that prevents him from possessing firearms. The second suspect, identified as “Adil,” is also a restricted person due to illegal narcotic use.

OBSERVATION - What the heck is it with Utah all of a sudden. My gut feeling is that this was a developing radicalization of a couple criminal moslems seeking to redeem themselves within the broader moslem community.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Small businesses – especially those owned by minorities – are being hurt by today’s level of interest rates, results of a new survey of employers conducted by John McLaughlin and Scott Rasmussen reveal.
The national survey of small businesses, conducted August 1-20 for the Job Creators Network Foundation, asked the following question:

“How difficult is it for your business to access capital in this interest rate environment?”

More than two-thirds (69%) of small businesses report that it’s difficult to access capital in the current interest rate environment, three times more than the 23% who say it isn’t. Another 8% aren’t sure.

Fully 85% of minority-owned businesses are having trouble accessing capital with today’s interest rates, as are 75% of female-owned establishments. Just 18% of minority and 13% of female small business owners say it’s not difficult to access capital.

The smallest small businesses, as measured by revenue, are the most vulnerable to the current level of interest rates. Here, 77% of those with less than $100,000 annual revenue say it’s difficult to access capital with today’s rates, compared to 60% of those taking in at least $1 million yearly.

When small business owners were asked if they “support or oppose the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its next meeting to lower credit costs and increase access to cheaper loans,” three-fourths said they want the Fed to lower rates at its September meeting:

- 74% support an interest rate cut.
- 16% oppose a cut.
- 9% are unsure.

https://newsbusters.org/blogs/cnsnews/craig-bannister/2025/09/10/85-minority-owned-businesses-say-interest-rates-hurting

OBSERVATIONS - In the day, small businesses were the employer of much if not most of the workforce. The wuhan shutdowns targeted small business over corporate giants. These same corporate giants have the wear with all to work through high rates - small business not so much. Here in my corner of the Redoubt, small and especially family owned businesses have been closing because no one is able to fund the purchase of their businesses. This is leaving big gaps in portions of the local economy.

POLITICAL FRONT –

For the past decade, Democrats at the highest levels have screamed that President Trump – and every single person they disagree with – is a “fascist,” “racist,” or “Nazi.”

Now, former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is declaring that, despite years of hateful and dangerous rhetoric from her party, there will be no accountability for the chaos those words have unleashed across the nation like cancer.

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2025/09/13/pelosi-democrats-wont-be-responsible-for-years-of-violent-rhetoric-against-trump/

OBSERVATION - Some like pelosi, are attempting to back pedal out of the cesspool of hatred that they and other democrat leaders openly fostered for the past decade.

***
Turning Point USA has now received over 32,000 inquiries in a 48-hour time frame to open new campus chapters.

Pre assissination numbers:
- College: 900
High school: 1,200

OBSERVATION - I believe the number is actually above 40 K now. The left has unleashed a tsunami.

***
President Donald Trump said early Monday morning he would call a national emergency and federalize Washington, D.C. after Mayor Muriel Bowser said its police would not cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

“The Federal Government, under my auspices as President of the United States of America, has stepped into the complete criminal mess that was Washington, D.C., our Nation’s Capital,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Because of this, D.C. has gone from one of the most dangerous and murder ridden cities in the U.S.A., and even around the World, to one of the safest – In just a few weeks.”

https://www.newsmax.com/us/crime-national-emergency/2025/09/15/id/1226398/

OBSERVATION - Bowser stepping in it big time. Following a protest that astroturfed only a few thousand mostly older whites, she is trying to sway congress to order the administration to cease law enforcement and deportation from the city.

China -

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman warned that China would react decisively if NATO countries, pressured by the US, impose tariffs on Russian oil.

OBSERVATION - As noted a lot, China’s economy is not in the best of shape. Additional tariffs would increase the impact significantly. Absent definitive word on what China would do, most likely be initially some form of trade sanctions.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Kremlin spokesperson Peskov: NATO is de-facto waging war against Russia

OBSERVATION - This has been a bleat they’ve used many times over NATO support to Ukraine.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-70 range with some scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 84 attack drones and 3 S-300 missiles from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or jammed 59 drones, mostly Shaheds and Gerans. Despite successful interceptions, 25 drones and several missiles struck 13 locations.

Russian losses per 15/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+910 men
+2 AFVs
+35 artillery
+1 MLRS

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Olhivske in Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine

Russian attacks have resumed to a degree on the southern and northern most ends of the front, reversing an absence from the past weeks.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Drone attack pattern remains relatively low.
Russian blood has bought a small Ukraine village after nearly a year of attacks.
Not seeing any significant indicators on the reportedly impending Russian Fall Offensive, could be just buried under the fog of war at this time. My OSINT sources are relatively quiet apart from noting troop redeployments

Still waiting to see what unilateral action Trump may take against Russia/putin.

Belarus -

“Zapad 2025” ongoing.

Poland –

Polish FM Radosław Sikorski is calling for serious consideration of a no-fly zone over Ukraine, suggesting NATO and the EU intercept Russian drones and missiles before they reach allied airspace. “Technically, we can do it, but it must be a joint decision with allies,” he told FAZ. He also proposed a maritime control zone in the North Sea to monitor Russia’s shadow fleet entering the Baltic, warning of a potential environmental disaster if one of those tankers sinks.

OBSERVATION - A NATO imposed no fly zone over Ukraine for Russian aircraft and devices was discussed early on, but Russia carefully back then avoided poking the bear because its hands were full with their failed offensive to capture Kyiv. Now with things being protracted, putin’s extended efforts to fragment NATO support as well as bullying former Soviet states is causing pushback to this level. Discussions are for a limited band - IIRC 150 km into Ukraine from the Polish border - for active interception of Russian drones and missiles deemed a threat to Poland. This could see Polish and other NATO jets actively patrolling Ukraine airspace.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.

Key overnight developments -

- Demolition of buildings housing Hamas elements continues at a growing pace

- More warnings to Gazans to leave the city

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu: Our decision to bomb Hamas leaders in Qatar was an independent Israeli decision, and we bear full responsibility for the attack

Netanyahu: Israel’s attack on Qatar sent a message to militants that they cannot hide.

Hamas has no immunity in any country.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

The Israeli army dropped leaflets over Gaza City calling for evacuation: “You are in a dangerous combat zone. For your safety and the safety of your family, evacuate immediately via A-Rashid Street towards the south via Wadi Gaza

Hamas continues to operate checkpoints and to block escape routes to the south in an effort to force residents of Gaza City to remain as their human shields. Latest reports of over 320K out of roughly 800k have managed to leave the city.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Upcoming date - Sep 22 UN conference on a Palestinian state.

***
Arab and Muslim leaders arriving in Qatar to participate in the Emergency Arab-Islamic Summit against Israel scheduled to be held in Doha today

AFP, citing the Spanish Prime Minister: We call for Israel’s exclusion from international competitions as long as the barbarism continues in Gaza.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Threats to try to force a two state solution on Israel are being rebuffed by both Israel and the US. The tempo of the air strikes against Gaza City and surrounding continue at a massive rate.

Earlier talk about a hostage deal is now just dust in the wind. Hamas has lost all initiative in that arena and are now hoping the threats from pro-hamas European nations (like Spain) will be enough to get Israel to stop the onslaught.

Expect the intensity of fighting for Gaza City to continue to increase, especially when the ground campaign starts in earnest.

I really don’t see any major actions against Hezbollah, or Syria except for the almost routine pinpoint strikes. Same for Iran. Houthis are going to get hammered again in the near term for FA.

Very busy components of CW2 today.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 16, 2025

Threat Level upgraded to WARNING due to increased potential for more leftist attacks on conservative mouthpieces and advocates following Charlie Kirk’s assassination.

UPCOMING -
- 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***
The left is waging a counter narrative of ‘relativism’ See the link as Gutfield goes thermonuclear on that myth on “The Five”

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/09/gutfeld-goes-jessica-tarlov/?fbclid=IwY2xjawM2M-hleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHqAMNV54xgn3Jgw2DjiDMHIJst4BpaDZcowh2Z89MHYYAC9PODu9jj8nGnyL_aem_mBPxR0mEb0R1OGlYKLzYZg

***
Leftist sites across social media are doubling down on the calls for more assassinations.
Redditors literally believe it is justified to kill everyone with a right wing opinion because “right wing opinion = white supremacist”

Meanwhile, same are trying to deflect association with Antifa / LGBT with far left subreddits saying the shooter was a right wing groyper. They’re peddling that narrative to absolve the Left of any culpability.

***
Vice President J.D. Vance discussed how desperately wants to come together as a country and reject political violence, filling in as host on the “Charlie Kirk Show” on Monday.

“I have heard many calls in the last few days for unity and for healing in the wake of Charlie’s assassination. You have no idea how desperately I want that,” Vance said.

“But first we must tell the truth,” he said. “It’s the only way to honor Charlie — what was he if not a man who told the truth?”

“The truth is that 26% of young liberals believe political violence is sometimes justified, and only 7% of young conservatives say the same. Again, too high a number,” Vance said. In a country of 330 million people, you can of course find one person of a given political persuasion justifying this or that or almost anything. But the data is clear: people on the left are much likelier to defend and celebrate political violence.”

“This is not a ‘both sides’ problem. If both sides have a problem, one side has a much bigger and malignant problem. And that is the truth we must be told.”

“While our side of the aisle certainly has its crazies, it is a statistical fact that most of the lunatics in American politics today are proud members of the far left,” said the vice president.

“There is no unity with people who scream at children over their parents’ politics. There is no unity with someone who lies about what Charlie Kirk said in order to excuse his murder. There is no unity with someone who harasses an innocent family the day after the father of that family lost a dear friend. There is no unity with the people who celebrate Charlie Kirk’s assassination,” Vance said. “And there is no unity with the people who fund these articles, who pay the salaries of these terrorist sympathizers who argue that Charlie Kirk—a loving husband and father—deserved a shot to the neck because he spoke words with which they disagree.”

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2025/09/15/jd_vance_there_is_no_unity_with_someone_who_celebrates_charlie_kirks_assassination.html

***
The biggest tell that the left are the baddies is that we can’t even hold a vigil for a prominent conservative commentator without people stomping on the flowers or calling in bomb threats

https://x.com/willchamberlain/status/1967414821923815464

OBSERVATIONS - Vandalism and sporadic violence has occurred at vigils and memorials across the country.

***
FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino told Newsmax on Monday that investigators have uncovered “significant developments” suggesting a broader network of people might have been involved in the assassination of conservative icon Charlie Kirk.

Bongino told “Rob Schmitt Tonight” the bureau is working to determine whether online chatter that surfaced around the time of Kirk’s murder indicates foreknowledge of the plot. He cautioned that investigators are still sorting out a timeline.

“The only question is the timeline that other people knew about the incident,” Bongino said. “Did they know before? Did they know afterward? … When you read some of the traffic, it’s unclear if that message was received before or after.”

Bongino stressed the investigation is in its early stages.
“This is not the end of the investigation,” he said. “It’s not even the end of the beginning. … We are investigating a potential broader network of people who may have known.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/dan-bongino-fbi-probe/2025/09/15/id/1226515/

RELATED - As noted yesterday, at least one Utah-based far left group deleted its social media presence after the shooting. It has been identified as Armed Queers Salt Lake City.

MORE RELATED - Kash Patel confirms Charlie Kirk’s assassin had a text exchange with another individual stating he “had the opportunity to take out Charlie Kirk and that he was going to do it,” confirming that outside persons or groups had knowledge of the plan ahead of time. FBI is probing Charlie Kirk assassin Tyler Robinson’s 20+ member Discord chat, with questioning expected soon. “There are scores of individuals that are going to be spoken to,” said Kash Patel.
(Fox News interview)

OBSERVATION - Ongoing. I have no doubt that there was pre knowledge of the assassination on these social media sites.
The push by Patel and Bongino to keep investigation very much open is a credit to them. By doing so, they are preventing the MSM to sweep it under the rug - with all its implications and involvement from the left.

***
Andy Ngo -

There is a death cult spreading across America, and it’s not just the radical fringe anymore.

It’s gone mainstream.

“I hope that it’s been eye-opening for the public to see the blood lust that exists, not just on fringe-left, obviously, but also in the mainstream left in the aftermath of this assassination.”

“It is a cancer that exists on the left and it’s mainstream and there’s some data the back that up.”

“Just overnight a mural for Charlie Kirk in Pensacola, Florida was vandalized with Antifa propaganda on it and some of the messages left on it were the exact messages from what was engraved on the rifle cartridges that were used in the attack.”

“So this is the mindset we’re dealing with.”

“I will call it a death cult. They worship death, they want their targets killed and they’ve been supported by huge a apparatus.”

“I’m not just talking about the Black Bloc militants on the streets acting as thugs, carrying out arson attacks and assaulting people, I’m talking about politicians who spread there propaganda and lies, NGOs, nonprofit groups, elected officials and many in the Democrat Party.”

“And of course, many journalists. We’ve seen many, many disgusting lies spread in the last few days in liberal media suggesting somehow that this accused gunman was a ‘far-right Christian nationalist’ inspired by MAGA.”

https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1967759126638842288?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Ngo has been documenting Antifa and the violent left for a good decade now. If anyone knows their goals and plans - its him. His observations are why I’m seeing less and less of a chance of them ‘moderating’ and an even greater chance of them doubling down and committing more acts of targeted political violence.

***
President Donald Trump on Monday signed an order sending the National Guard into Memphis to combat crime, constituting his latest test of the limits of presidential power by using military force in American cities.

Trump made the announcement with Republican Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee visiting the Oval Office, calling what’s coming a “replica of our extraordinarily successful efforts” in Washington.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/trump-memphis-national-guard-deployment-crime-washington/2025/09/15/id/1226503/

OBSERVATION - This raises two concerns. One clearly is the legal status of such a call out - still being litigated via LA and DC. Second is the potential that the left will seize upon it as a reason to declare that Trump has instated a “martial law” and must be stopped. Memphis Freepers be on alert.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

President Donald Trump said he would consider designating Antifa a terrorist organization after the radicalization of Charlie Kirk’s assassin, who had references to “Bella Ciao,” transgender identity, and “furry” culture written on his ammo. He made the comment in response to a reporter’s question in the Oval Office on Monday evening.

https://pjmedia.com/victoria-taft/2025/09/15/watching-the-acceleration-of-violence-n4943711

OBSERVATION - Ok, now lets get ‘r done.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Nimitz CSG continues to operate in the Persian Gulf region.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Karen Attiah was fired from the WaPo for her posts attacking Kirk following his assassination.

“My only direct reference to Kirk was one post— his own words on record,” Attiah wrote on Substack.

In a post to her Bluesky account, Attiah wrote, “’Black women do not have the brain processing power to be taken seriously. You have to go steal a [W]hite person’s slot’- Charlie Kirk.”

https://www.foxnews.com/media/ex-wapo-columnist-fired-from-outlet-over-social-media-posts-amid-charlie-kirks-assassination

OBSERVATION - It is documented that Attiah fabricated that quote. Making things up for leftist in the MSM is not unheard of, but in this case it was too egregious to be ignored like usually done. FAFO Ms Attiah.

***
House Republicans are expected to introduce a stop-gap funding bill to fund the federal government through 20 November, ahead of the 30 September deadline to avoid a partial shutdown. The House and Senate are scheduled to be in session together for only seven days ahead of the 30 September deadline.

OBSERVATION - They wouldn’t be in this bind had they not taken the month of August off. Of course the democrats are more than willing to try to forced a govt shutdown. That willingness probably increased by a desire to get the violent factions of their party out of the news cycle.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump to meet King Charles

China -

China’s Coast Guard used water cannons on Philippine ships near Scarborough Shoal, accusing Manila of “illegal” entry and ramming a vessel.

Phillipines –

Manila pushed back against China’s plans to create a national nature reserve at a disputed South China Sea maritime feature, a move officials say could increase the People’s Liberation Army’s foothold in the area.

In response, the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs issued a diplomatic protest, arguing Scarborough Shoal “is a longstanding and integral part of the Philippines over which it has sovereignty and jurisdiction.”

https://news.usni.org/2025/09/15/philippines-rejects-chinese-scarborough-shoal-nature-reserve-claim

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
ISW. The Kremlin is escalating its rhetoric, threatening NATO states in parallel with the kinetic escalation of Russia’s recent drone incursion into Poland.
Peskov’s and Medvedev’s references to a possible Russia-NATO war aim to prevent NATO and European states from taking action to defend themselves and Ukraine against aggressive and threatening Russian behavior, such as the September 9 to 10 drone incursion into Poland.

OBSERVATION - This trend will continue to grow unless Europe / NATO finally deal with their dependency issues with Russian oil and get some backbone.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-70 range with some scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight Russia launched 113 drones, including Shaheds and Geran types, from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defense downed or suppressed 89 of them across the country. Strikes hit 6 locations, with debris falling in 2 more. Zaporizhzhia was also hit by 10 Tornado-S rockets, causing casualties.

Russian losses per 16/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+910 men
+5 AFVs
+26 artillery
+2 MLRS

Ukraine claims full control of Pankivka village of Donetsk region
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Novopavlivka and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.

Kyiv region: logistics center of the largest household and building goods retailer Epicenter destroyed. After Russian drone strike, the building was completely destroyed

Ukraine struck the Saratov oil refinery in Russia overnight on September 16. Explosions and fire were reported at the site, with damage assessments ongoing. Saratov Oil Refinery has a designed capacity of 7.0 million tons of oil per year.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Nothing really significant to note. Drone/missile cycle continues, expecting another big attack in the next day or so.

On the ground no significant gains for Russia. The ‘breakout’ from last month north of Pokrovsk is in danger of being cut off as Ukraine pincers the base. Russian troops in the Sumy region are also feeling pressure on their flanks. Ukraine has become more aggressive, and successful since the overall commander of forces was changed several months ago.

Belarus -

“Zapad 2025” ongoing.

Belarusian President Lukashenko: Belarus has no relation to the drones that fly into Poland or Lithuania.

Poland –

Poland says it faces up to 50 Russian sabotage attempts daily, hitting hospitals and city water supplies. One breach nearly compromised a major city’s water network before being stopped.

***
The Polish State Protection Service neutralized a drone over government buildings on Parkowa Street and the Belweder Palace. Two Belarusian citizens were detained, and police are investigating.

According to Colonel Bogusław Piórkowski, SOP spokesman, an officer at Belweder Palace spotted the drone in flight. SOP officers quickly apprehended the operator. He confirms that two Belarusians citizens were detained.

***
Poland will keep its border with Belarus closed beyond the “Zapad-2025” exercises.

The Interior Ministry said: “The closure of the Polish-Belarusian border remains in effect until further notice… This decision is linked to the Russian-Belarusian ‘Zapad-2025’ exercises, but it does not mean the border will reopen only after the drills. Movement will resume once security is fully restored, as confirmed by intelligence services.”

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.

Key overnight developments -

- IDF begins the ground phase to seize Gaza City

- Reports that Hamas has moved hostages above ground as human shields

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Netanyahu has full US support for plans to destroy Hamas.

Israeli sources to CNN: The Israeli ground operation in Gaza City has begun. The IDF estimates that more than 2,000 terrorists are operating in the city.

Around 10 PM yesterday, IDF Divisions 98 and 162 launched Operation Gideon’s Chariots II with heavy airstrikes, beginning the push into Gaza City’s outskirts. The approach is gradual, using massive firepower while prioritizing troop safety over speed. Reports of tanks inside the city were false, though Division 36 will join soon.

The IDF has spent weeks destroying Hamas infrastructure and estimates 2,000 core terrorists remain in the city. 350,000 civilians have evacuated, but over 600,000 stay behind as evacuation efforts continue. The operation aims to dismantle Hamas and set conditions for hostage returns, while the IDF readies for possible escalation beyond Gaza.

Claims are circulating that Hamas is moving all hostages from tunnels up to the ground floor to use them as human shields, just like they do with Gaza’s 2 million civilians.

Key points:
• A father of one of the hostages, Guy Dalal, says that Guy plus eight others have been moved from tunnels to above ground, being used as human shields in Gaza City.
• There’s also reporting of Hamas holding hostages in homes and tents above ground.
• U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a warning to Hamas that “all bets are off” if these reports are confirmed.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The IDF issues an urgent warning for all civilians and ships to evacuate Houthi-controlled Hodeida Port in Yemen, saying strikes are imminent in response to repeated Houthi attacks on Israel.

OBSERVATION - Planes are likely already in the air.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Upcoming date - Sep 22 UN conference on a Palestinian state.

***
Palestinian Foreign Ministry: We demand “exceptional” international intervention to protect civilians in Gaza.

***
‘Emergency’ Arab summit in Doha, Qatar ends with condemnations of Israel but no tangible actin

OBSERVATION - Standing with the rest of them was an Iranian representative - who’s nation hit Qatar with missiles just months ago. . . .

***
Qatar demands that the UN prosecute Israel for the attack in Doha.

***
Rubio in Qatar for talks. Will he call out Qatar for harboring Hamas terrrorists?

***
UN Investigation Committee:
The (American) Gaza Humanitarian foundation (GHF) must stop all its operations in Gaza.

***
UN investigation committee:
“The Israeli authorities have led a campaign of gen*cide in Gaza for nearly two years with a specific goal of eliminating the Palestinians.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

As I have warned, the shrill voices of the anti-Israeli UN has upped the ante with their ‘genocide’ report. Same group also demanded US stop its aid program - wait, what ? I thought there was a devastating famine in the land. Also from the UN the push continues to build for a two state solution.

Meanwhile, Qatar hosted an emergency summit of arab leaders to condemn Israel for striking at Hamas leadership in Doha. Absent from the discussion was Iran’s missile strike of a few months ago as well as the retention of hostages by Hamas.

All these efforts are going to go triple forte as the IDF grinds Hamas into the dust in Gaza City. The die has been cast there and Israel will not be distracted from that goal. The US has Israel’s back on this one. With the start of the ground offensive phase, exodus of gazans from the city is expected to surge and the requirements of having soldiers to fight may cause Hamas to pull from those being used to block civilian evacuation to the south.

Use of hostages above ground as human shields is not a new development. Palestinian tarrorists have been doing it for years. Sinwar was noted to have at least initially, surrounded himself with some of the hostages, though none were present when he was finally taken out.

Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025

Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa: Israel’s aggression on Gaza continues alongside its violations in Syria.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Venezuela’s Vice President Rodriguez called Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) “vassal governments of the U.S. War Department.” The Venezuelan Defense Minister warned that if the U.S. uses their territory to attack Venezuela, then Venezuela would wage war against them.

***
President Donald Trump announced Monday that U.S. military forces carried out a second strike against suspected Venezuelan drug traffickers, escalating tensions between Washington and Caracas amid a broader crackdown on the international drug trade.

In a Truth Social post, Trump wrote: “This morning, on my Orders, U.S. Military Forces conducted a SECOND Kinetic Strike against positively identified, extraordinarily violent drug trafficking cartels and narcoterrorists in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility. The Strike occurred while these confirmed narcoterrorists from Venezuela were in International Waters transporting illegal narcotics … The Strike resulted in 3 male terrorists killed in action. No U.S. Forces were harmed in this Strike.”

https://www.newsmax.com/us/venezuela-trafficking-trump/2025/09/15/id/1226497/

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 16, 2025

Threat Level upgraded to WARNING due to increased potential for more leftist attacks on conservative mouthpieces and advocates following Charlie Kirk’s assassination.

UPCOMING -
- 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***
As the Kirk investigation widens, more focus is bearing down on SLC Armed Queers and more specifically Ermiya Fanaeian, a Pakistani (Iranian?) immigrant. In 2021 she was interviewed by SLUG magazine, and bragged about militarizing local LGBT groups. Coming into focus as well is financial support from Utah Global Diplomacy which specifically awarded her for her work with trans people, of which SLC Armed Queers is key.

Utah Global Diplomacy (EIN 876128308), the nonprofit is a partner with the US State Department to cultivate emerging leaders and diplomacy initiatives.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/09/slc-armed-queers-leader-on-armed-communal-defense/

and

https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/1967758989791465856

OBSERVATION - So federal dollars flooded her way and were used to essentially arm LGBT elements in Utah. Tons of info at the “X” link. What is going to bite them is their apparent belief that as an ‘oppressed’ group, liberal democrats would ignore them or praise their actions. The paper trail should lead to more arrests.

***
A 71-year-old man who was detained moments after the fatal shooting of Turning Point USA co-founder Charlie Kirk has been arrested on charges of attempting to mislead authorities by falsely confessing to the murder. He has also been booked for possessing child sexual abuse material (CSAM).

George Zinn, 71, was taken into custody on Monday and he now faces a second-degree felony charge of obstructing justice in connection with Kirk’s death at Utah Valley University (UVU). Zinn will be held without bail, according to online court records.

State authorities also booked Zinn over material on his cellphone depicting child sexual abuse.

https://www.oann.com/newsroom/71-year-old-man-arrested-for-false-confession-after-charlie-kirk-murder-also-facing-csam-charges/

OBSERVATIONS - This is the old guy initial photos and speculation had as the shooter. I don’t know if he had a tip off to the assassination attempt that day, but his rapid actions to draw attention to himself are in a way suspicious - he understood the repercussions and need for a distraction. Being a pedo and now looking at the rest of his miserable life in jail is just bonus.

***
The Biden administration’s Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) investigated a wide array of conservative groups, including the late Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA, as part of a wide probe called “Arctic Frost.”

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) revealed the broader scope of Arctic Frost in a hearing with FBI Director Kash Patel at the Senate Judiciary Committee on Tuesday, saying that whistleblowers had come forward with new evidence.

Grassley said that the operation, originally set up to investigate the effort to overturn the 2020 election, had expanded to include a wide range of conservative groups, the Republican National Committee, and others.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/09/16/arctic-frost-biden-fbi-investigated-charlie-kirks-turning-point-usa-republican-groups/

OBSERVATION - This would fit the pattern already established as far back as 0bama where the powers of the FBI and other alphabet agencies were hijacked and turned into partisan arms of the democrat party to silence republican/conservative opposition. We already knew about the surveillance of Pro-life Catholics and those moms who challenged school boards on their shoving woke/LGBT agendas down the throats of children - designating them as domestic terrorists.

FUTHER OBSERVATION - Adding to the above what just came to mind should a hot CW2 come online, there are elements buried in agencies like the FBI that would take up arms against citizens, principally those on the right. Never forget the massive purchases of firepower and munitions by obscure govt agencies under 0bama.

This weaponization against the American people is no different from the Stazi, KGB and other totalitarian regimes. All evidence points to their plans to become even worse.

***
A tense exchange unfolded at a recent Dearborn City Council meeting, where one resident’s call for unity clashed head-on with the mayor’s defense of a controversial honor. Edward “Ted” Barham, a local Christian who has called Dearborn home for years, stepped to the microphone to voice his unease over new street signs bearing the name of Osama Siblani, the publisher of the Arab American News. What began as a plea for peace quickly devolved into a public shaming that left many questioning the boundaries of civility in a city known for its diverse population.

Barham, identifying himself simply as “Ted Barham, Dearborn resident,” didn’t mince words about his concerns.

“He’s a promoter of Hezbollah and Hamas,” he stated, pointing to Siblani’s history of inflammatory rhetoric. To drive the point home, Barham recited a striking passage attributed to Siblani himself: “He talks about how the blood of the martyrs irrigates the land of Palestine … whether we are in Michigan and whether we are in Yemen. Believe me, everyone should fight within his means. They will fight with stones, others will fight with guns, others fight with planes, drones, and rockets.”

Enter Mayor Abdullah H. Hammoud, whose response turned the meeting into a spectacle of exclusion. Dismissing Barham’s input outright, the mayor quipped, “The best suggestion I have for you is to not drive on Warren Avenue or to close your eyes while you’re doing it. His name is up there and I spoke at a ceremony celebrating it because he’s done a lot for this community.”

Hammoud’s praise for Siblani glosses over the publisher’s track record, which includes not just pro-Palestinian advocacy but calls for Israel’s destruction and hosting fundraisers tied to Hezbollah.

https://patriot.tv/dearborns-muslim-mayor-tells-christian-hes-not-welcome-in-the-city/

OBSERVATION - We are seeing here in America there same cancer that has metastasized in Europe where ever moslems gain civil power and control, they immediately begin a cleansing or moves to subjugate the non-moslems in the community. Dearborn is a proto-case in point. In an eventual CW2 scenario, these enclaves (which are in the process of being established elsewhere across the US) will likely side with the left - at least initially - as they are already in alliance with marxists. This alliance will last only as long as it is convenient for both groups.

***
President Donald Trump said yesterday that he would consider designating far left Antifa groups as domestic terrorist organizations with the support of cabinet officials.

OBSERVATION - Don’t delay on this matter. You gotta strike while the iron is hot.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Housing markets across the US are showing signs of trouble as homes linger on the market longer in 44 out of 50 major US metros.

The worst hit area is Miami, where houses are now sitting unsold for nearly three months — almost four weeks longer than a year ago.

Across the country, the typical home spent 60 days on the market in August, seven days longer than a year ago and above pre-pandemic norms, according to a new Realtor.com report.

It doesn’t yet amount to a nationwide crash, but the widespread cooling suggests home has raised fears it is on the horizon.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15086063/biggest-metros-flashing-grave-warning-house-price-crash-next.html

OBSERVATION - Housing market continues to show signs of how deeply the economy is stressed - a very key indicator. The expected Fed drop of a quarter percent may provide some stimulation for buyers, but only those with the resources to handle the still very high home costs and interest rates.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
New uniform and grooming standard coming out for the military. No more sloppy GI Joes and Janes.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The National Republican Congressional Committee is funding an ad campaign to target 25 Democrat House members in vulnerable seats blaming Democrats for a possible partial government shutdown. The deadline to fund the federal government and avert a partial shutdown is 30 September.

OBSERVATION - Time for the republicans to act like the party in power.

TRUMP Watch –

Donald Trump with First Lady Melania Trump were greeted at Windsor Castle by the Prince of Princess of Wales, as planned.

China -

Ahead of the Philippine resupply mission to fishermen around the Scarborough Shoal, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) announced live fire drills between the Philippines’ main archipelago and the Shoal. Forty-five minutes later, the Chinese Coast Guard attacked the Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) resupply vessel with water cannons, then made aggressive maneuvers to intercept the resupply mission.

https://x.com/jaytaryela/status/1967896076138209589

OBSERVATION - Zone located directly between the Scarborough Shoal and the main islands of the Philippines.

Real bullets/bombs will be used by China eventually to try to forcibly seize these islands - long before action taken to try to seize Taiwan.

Phillipines –

See China above.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Solovyov and his delusional comrades, Russian state TV propagandists now claim Western leaders are “bringing a nuclear catastrophe closer,” suggesting strikes on Ukraine or Poland. They frame it as a supposed global desire to “destroy civilization” for disobeying Russia.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-70 range with some scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight Russia launched 172 drones, mostly Shaheds, along with an Iskander-M ballistic missile and an S-300 from Kursk and Rostov regions. Ukrainian air defense downed or suppressed 136 drones. Strikes hit 13 locations with missiles and 36 drones.

The Russian drone strike last night targeted substations powering Ukraine’s railway network, Deputy PM Oleksiy Kuleba said. Over 20 passenger trains were on routes during the attack, none hit. Still, 26 trains are delayed over an hour

Russian losses per 17/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1020 men
+5 tanks
+3 AFVs
+36 artillery

Analysis and Future Operations —

Drone attacks up, so a big one should be days away
Also of note, this is the first time reported Russian casualties have exceeded 1000 in a number of months. Nothing really standing out as to cause at this stage and will need to see if numbers continue to be elevated over recent months reporting.

Belarus -

Russia and Belarus’ ZAPAD 2025 drills ended today and included 13,000 troops conducting counter-unmanned aerial systems tactics, counter-unmanned surface vessel tactics, tank operations in the Kaliningrad satellite state, repelling air strikes, and practicing nuclear weapon launches. The stated mission of the drills was defense of the “Union State,” a joint state project between Russia and Belarus.

OBSERVATION - This exercise was more saber rattling directed towards NATO. I suspect that many if not most of the Russian forces that participated will be relocated to the Ukraine front. This exercise would be a good training opportunity for those forces to prepare for the threatened Russian Fall offensive.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.

Key overnight developments -

- Intense fighting continues in Gaza

- Additional evacuation route opened up out of Gaza City

- IAF hit Houthi port facilities

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Today is the informal “Pager Remembrance Day” One year ago today marked the turning point in the fight between Israel and Hezbollah. On this day, Israel shattered Hezbollah’s spirit. Before this moment, Hezbollah was the single greatest threat on Israel’s border. The exploding pagers killed and wounded hundreds and along with the lesser exploding radios of the next day, struck chaos into Hezbollah’s command and control as well as serious losses to leadership.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Communication and Internet services have been cut off across large parts of Gaza City and northern Gaza due to ongoing Israeli airstrikes

The Israeli Air Force hit 50 Gaza targets overnight and 140 in the past day, striking tunnels, terror sites, operatives, and infrastructure, the IDF says.

Against the backdrop of heavy congestion on the coastal road in the Gaza Strip and in an attempt to increase the evacuation rate of Gaza City, the IDF spokesperson in Arabic announced this morning that in addition to the coastal route, the Salah al-Din route (the main route connecting the north of the Strip to the south) will also be open for evacuee movement from Gaza City in the next 48 hours (starting at 12 noon).

According to the security system, more than 400,000 people have already evacuated Gaza City. It is estimated that about 600,000 Gazan’s still remain in Gaza City.

OBSERVATION - Some reports note that the surge in evacuations may be due to the population being initially convinced by Hamas that Israel wouldn’t invade Gaza City. The harsh reality has taken hold.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israel has up security checkpoints at the entrances to all cities and launching a campaign of raids and arrests coinciding with the ground invasion of Gaza City

Israeli forces shut down the main entrance to the town of Turmus Ayya in the central Judea - Samaria region

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Israeli Prime Minister: Minutes ago, the Air Force launched airstrikes on the port of Hodeidah, the main supply port for the Houthis in Yemen.

The IDF has reported that a missile was launched from Yemen towards Israeli territory, was successfully intercepted. The missile carried a cluster warhead. It was intercepted outside Israel’s borders, but the radius of the fragments triggered the alarms in Israel.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Upcoming date - Sep 22 UN conference on a Palestinian state.

***
Netanyahu to The Jerusalem Post: There is an attempt to impose a blockade on Israel by various countries led by Qatar.

***
(FO) Egyptian President al-Sissi described Israel as “the enemy” in a speech in Qatar yesterday. Diaa Rashwan, head of the State Information Service, said that this is the first time an Egyptian head of state used the word “enemy” to describe Israel since 1977.

OBSERVATION - Egypt has been moving to a more radical islam for a number of years now, due to the influence of the Moslem Brotherhood and radical elements. It is following the same track that Turkey has been on for over a decade.

***
Japan decided NOT to recognize a Palestinian state in the coming United Nations General Assembly meeting.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Very little getting past the OPSEC shield on Israeli operations in Gaza. Evidence is that they are achieving their initial objectives.

Intensive air strikes on buildings serve multiple purposes - to deny Hamas’ use as well as neutralize much of the booby traps they’ve installed in their preparations for the Israeli move. Gaza City is fast resembling other towns that have been turned to rubble.

The surge in evacuees from Gaza City, now along a second axis, will put a strain on Hamas manpower if they continue to try to force them to stay in the city. Doing so will keep them from the battle lines.

We should hear of some tactical details in the coming days.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Reports of civil unrest in parts of the country

Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025

Israel has proposed a new security deal to Syria, modeled on its 1979 Egypt peace accord, calling for a demilitarized, no-fly zone southwest of Damascus in exchange for Israel withdrawing from most occupied Syrian areas (except Mt. Hermon). Talks mediated by the US are ongoing, with Syria preparing a counterproposal. Source: Axios

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

There are unconfirmed repots that the US is planning on hitting narco/terrorist sites in Venezuela, while avoiding any military sites. This would be a logical extension of the significant naval taskforce operating off its coast. It is loaded with a lot of cruise missile capability and combined with F35s could strike them hard.

Misc of Note –

Hurricane season has been very suppressed and now that we are past peak season, outlook doesn’t seem to indicate any flare ups.

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