Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

If some one wants to be pinged to this thread, please let me know.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

Still monitoring potential actions on Jan 20th.

***
The People’s March, went off yesterday with greatly suppressed numbers from 2017. Still a lot of goofy costumes and signs. Limited violence, usually directed against any onlooker determined to be a Trump supporter.

***
Persistent threats of riots by the left centered around tomorrow. However, severe cold weather and related storms may well put a damper on these announced protests - see yesterday’s TM. Failure to mount a large protest in DC may demoralize protests in other cities.

Again, pro-hamas elements, probably reinforced by Antifa elements are of most concern, due to the perceived victory of hamas over Israel and the US’s role in forcing the ceasefire agreement. Worst case scenario at the moment.

WARNING - There is a potential for rioting in cities like Chicago next week as mass deportation round up commence. Violence will be directed initially against ICE and other federal agents. Police support is not guaranteed given the declaration that sanctuary cities will not help out the operations in any way - and that could include riot control.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT *FLASHING RED* as of Jan 19, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

Rumors overnight that the swearing in may be moved a second time to the WH due to terror attack concerns from the Capitol Rotunda. Yesterday it was announced the move to the Rotunda due to weather conditions, but tagging along were reports of terror concerns.

So far, I’ve seen no news to confirm the change to the WH.

Yesterday, Trumps motorcade’s vehicles all had new antennas on the roof that may be jamming systems against drones. Fact is that the drone threat is also running very high.

Also in the MSM feed, there are concerns over continuity of govt should a massive terror strike hit the ceremony or later events, that kill Trump, Vance and others.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Clinton, Bush and 0bama are not expected to be at tomorrows inauguration. A number of other senior democrat congressional leaders are also expected not to attend.

Biden / Harris Watch –

This category cannot be retired soon enough

Watching to see just what last minute hijinks biden will pull off in his final 24 hours in office. Will he throw more blanket pardons to stifle Trump investigations of the lawfare waged against him the last 8 years?

Illegal Immigration –

More reports that some illegals are beginning to self deport.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30s with rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reports on a drone attack overnight. Out of 61 Shahed drones launched, 43 were shot down and 15 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 19/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1580 men
+8 tanks
+18 AFVs
+15 artillery systems
+76 support vehicles

Summary —

Another day of moderately heavy fighting and losses by Russia. Territorial gains by Russia have been considerably smaller than last month, strongly suggesting that much of Russia’s reserve offensive power has been degraded.

With the increase in successful Ukraine deep stakes, I expect Russia to respond with a large combined strike as early as this next week.

Belarus -

At least 12 Russian Shahed drones flew into Belarus from Ukraine during the night and the first half of January 19.

The drones were flying towards Kamaryn, Loyeu, Byvalki, Asarevichy, Chyrvonaya Buda and passed through the “Belarusian corridor.”

The first Shahed drone flew to Kamaryn at 00:50 and then flew towards Chornobyl at 00:54. Further flights were at: 01:50, 05:23, 05:50, 06:01, 06:12, 06:13, 06:29 (3 drones), 07:25 and 13:03.

Aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force didn’t take off.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel announces ceasefire in Gaza Strip after a three hour delay by hamas.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Hamas delayed the delivery of the list of the first hostages to be released. “Israeli bombardment and complexities of the field situation delay delivery of list of detainees”

This delayed the actual start of the ceasefire, and came close to scuttling it. The delay was three hours

The first three Israeli female hostages are expected to be freed - Hamas has named them as 31-year-old Doron Steinbrecher, dual British-Israeli Emily Damari, 28, and 24-year-old Romi Gonen

***
Growing rumors that Israel will execute its long awaited strike on Iranian nuclear facilities soon after Trump takes office. Just how soon will depend IMHO how quickly key cabinet positions are approved like Sec Def and Sec State.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Palestinian security forces deployed in Khan Yunis, southern Gaza Strip

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Yesterday, Houthi forces fired two ballistic missiles at Israel, both were successfully intercepted.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The ceasefire is now moving forward, with Israel holding Hamas to every jot and tittle of the agreement. I still do not hold out hopes for long term compliance by Hamas, as they are too eager to strike at Israel, especially now since they think they won a great war and are the stronger.

This would be a deadly miscalculation on their part, as they can no longer count on biden’s pressures on Israel and Trump being very open - should Hamas break the ceasefire, they will be broken in turn.

Though lower on the radar, actions in Lebanon are not encouraging. The Lebanese are seemingly half stepping their part of the agreement, leaving a lot of Hezbollah in place and armed. The new PM has openly stated that Hezbollah will be disarmed, but hasn’t established enough of a power base to make any movement in that direction. Politically, Hezbollah is still potent in the national leadership.

Finally, as noted above, a potential window is opening for an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. I see this sooner rather than later as Iran has been working hard to wicker air defenses over these sites from elements destroyed in the last Israeli air strike. To delay too long could expose the IAF to potential losses. Key indicator to watch is the targeting of Iran’s new owner the horizon radar system. Israel will strike shortly after taking that installation out.

Syria -

Blinken informed Congress yesterday that the US has issued a limited sanctions waiver related to Syria’s State Sponsor of Terrorism designation. The FAA 620(g) waiver allows continued US assistance to foreign governments supporting the transitional gov in Syria, while the country remains labeled an SST.

Argentina -

For the first time in 14 years, Argentina has a budget surplus.

Misc of Note –

A powerful sequence of winter storms is set to impact large portions of the U.S. over the next 7 days. It will bring heavy snow to the Northeast, disruptive ice accumulation across the South, and life-threatening cold temperatures extending from the Northern Plains to the Gulf Coast.

OBSERVATION - Winter cold is here with vengeance. Here in my corner of the Redoubt, we are looking at -20 tomorrow morning before factoring in wind chill, which in some parts of the state are forecast to be potentially as low as -60 to -70. Folks, that can freeze exposed skin in a matter of minutes if not seconds.

Cold like this can and will stress the power grid and some parts of the country may experience blackouts and associated losses of natural gas (need electricity to run heater fans, etc). BE READY with alternative warming systems and for goodness sake - BE FIRE AWARE - as many homes burn down due to carelessness.

Pay attention to your elderly or disabled/handicapped neighbors if there are power problems. In fact, take a minute today to touch base with them and assure them you are there if things get rough.

Avoid travel if possible but if on the roads, make sure you carry extra blankets and ways to build a fire if necessary.

Pay attention to local news and weather for updates.

Black Swans -

GOOD morning, a brisk -19 here at my home in the Redoubt. Probably drop a degree or two more before sunrise.

There won’t be a TM tomorrow, Tuesday. I’ll be on the road early and gone most of the day.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The U.S. Federal Reserve is exiting a global climate change coalition days before the new Trump administration is set to take power on Jan. 20.

The Federal Reserve had joined the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) in December 2020. NGFS, composed of global central banks and supervisors, aims to integrate climate and environmental risk management into the financial sector and mobilize “finance to support the transition toward a sustainable economy,” according to the group’s website. On Friday, the Federal Reserve announced its withdrawal from the 143-member coalition.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/federal-reserve-withdraws-from-global-climate-group-as-trump-set-to-assume-power-5794554?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge

OBSERVATION - A tactical pull back by the Fed, who is already under great scrutiny by the incoming Trump administration.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

Still monitoring potential actions on Jan 20th.

***
Calls for massive protests by the left (beyond the gaggle of women over the weekend) appear to be fizzling out.

***
The leakage of initial mass deportation plans (See Illegal Immigration below) has given the left an opportunity to get their ‘defenses’ in place. It is yet to be seen just how violent the Antifa and affiliated elements will be towards these round ups.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT *FLASHING RED* as of Jan 19, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

Inauguration set for the Capitol Rotunda, with the area under the highest level of security seen. Weather in DC very likely to discourage any mass groupings of violent protestors.

POLITICAL FRONT –

biden issued his ‘blanket’ pardons on the dirty list of criminals. I would hope that the constitutionality of such ‘blanket’ pardons are challenged in the Fed courts.

OTOH - They can now be FORCED to testify under oath on their actions. If they lie - those are not covered by these ‘pardons’.

***
Trump is set to totally upset the tea cart in DC in the minutes following his swearing in. He has reportedly got over 200 EOs ready for signature covering a broad range of issues. One summary of key items that I found -

1. Border Security and Immigration:
- Closing the border to illegal immigrants via a proclamation.
- Declaring a national emergency at the southern border.
- Designating drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations.
- Reinstating the “Remain in Mexico” policy.
- Ending the “Catch and Release” policy.
- Directing the military to construct a new phase of the border wall.

2. Energy and Environment:
- Lifting restrictions on Alaskan energy production.
- Declaring a national energy emergency and pausing all offshore wind leases.
- Withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord.
- Removing federal regulations that increase costs for families and consumers.

3. Government Efficiency and Accountability:
- Establishing a new Department of Government Efficiency with a hiring freeze.
- Ending Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) programs across the federal government.
- Suspending security clearances for 51 national security officials accused of misleading the public about Hunter Biden’s laptop during the 2020 election.

4. Additional Measures:
- Returning federal workers to in-person work.
- Repealing electric vehicle regulations.
- Strengthening hiring and control measures over senior government officials.

High on supporters expectations are blanket pardons for those persecuted under J6 trials and jailing.

Massive resignations across the board in DC, some directed by Trump, others are rats jumping ship.

TRUMP Watch –

Massive, pre-inauguration rally last night.

Trump has influenced more domestic and foreign policy in the short weeks before today than many presidents have done in their full terms.

Illegal Immigration –

Insider sabotage already evident. Incoming border czar Tom Homan said plans for immigration raids beginning in Chicago on Tuesday are now being reviewed in the wake of a leak about the operations.

Homan made the remarks in two different interviews on Saturday.
“We’re reviewing any plans in Chicago because of the leak,” Homan told ABC News, also telling The Washington Post that the incoming Trump administration “hasn’t made a decision yet.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/homan-chicago-raids/2025/01/19/id/1195658/

OBSERVATION - This endangers law enforcement personnel. Hopefully the leaker will be exposed and publicly flogged (rhetorically) before being shipped off to jail.

China –

Trump making plans to visit China some time in his first 100 days in office.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30s with rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reported on a massive Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 141 launched, 93 were shot down and another 37 were supressed by electronic warfare. Two flew back to Russia. Also one Iskander-M missile was launched. What damage the missile inflicted is unknown.

Russian losses per 20/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1690 men
+10 tanks
+42 AFVs
+19 artillery systems
+3 AD systems
+87 utility vehicles

Russian ministry of defense reports 31 Ukraine UAVs were shot down over different regions of Russia overnight.

Overnight, Ukrainian drones hit a military airfield and aircraft plant in Kazan, where Tu-160 and Tu-22M3/M3M are produced and repaired. Drones also struck a fuel tank and an aviation college. Explosions were reported in 4 districts of the city.

Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Schevchenko in Donetsk region of Ukraine and Novoyehorivka in Luhansk region of Ukraine

Summary —

Another day of moderately heavy fighting along the front. Drone wars continue as well.

To put Russian casualties in a different perspective, a full strength regiment typically consisting of 3,000 to 5,000 soldiers. Given the losses and only partial strength units, Russia is losing over half a regiment every day.

With the 3d anniversary of the start of the war, Russia is closing in fast on having lost 1 million soldiers in the fight. It has essentially lost all its modern tanks and APCs as well as other equipment. It is relying on increasingly old mothballed equipment in replacement. Recruits are reportedly much older as the younger men do not want the enlistment bonus - not worth their lives

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- First three hostages released

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Hamas spokesman claims that 35 of the 94 hostages remaining in the Gaza Strip are no longer alive.

***
The Trump transition team is reportedly exploring relocating some of Gaza’s 2 million displaced residents during post-war reconstruction, with Indonesia considered as a temporary host. - NBC

OBSERVATION - I thought this was satire at first, but this is real. I really don’t think Indonesia knows what its in for, but then they have hundreds of islands they can dump them on . . . .

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

The IDF withdrew from areas in the northern and southern Gaza Strip on January 19.

Gazans began to return to the northern Gaza Strip from IDF-designated humanitarian zones in the southern and central Gaza Strip amid IDF withdrawal from these areas on January 19.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli artillery shelling targets Mount Sadana on the outskirts of Kafr Shouba, southern Lebanon

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

(ISW). The IDF Central Command said it will deploy new forces to the West Bank to dissuade and prevent Palestinian militia attacks. Israel will release 1,000 Palestinian prisoners into the West Bank as part of the ceasefire-hostage deal, which informed the IDF decision to deploy new forces.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Yemen’s Houthis have said in a statement that they will limit attacks on ships linked to Israel

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

First group of hostages released. Prisoners released into Judea and Samaria. They are not immune to rearrest or termination should they resume their terrorist ways and most certainly they will.

Watching how the ‘civilians’ bullied and intimidated the Israeli hostages only points to what savages they are. Hamas is Gaza and Gaza is Hamas.

The past few days have presented a great day for intelligence gathering as Hamas elements came out of their holes in ‘protected’ areas to show their faces again. These are areas that the Biden admin didn’t allow Israel to go into and the world condemned. If Israel returns to Gaza, they’ll be able to target these areas and finish taking them out.

Trump’s proposal to ship 2 million to Indonesia is intriguing. Is the govt there that blind as to why EVERY other arab/moslem nation refuses to take them in.

Iran –

Reports that Khamenei looked a bit chunkier than usual yesterday when he was praying over the bodies of the two judges in Iran who were killed yesterday. Likely wearing a bulletproof vest. Iranian leadership maybe a bit paranoid as this was a ceremony held with judiciary officials present.

***
Iran release of videos of a large underground facility storing fast attack boats and the sort is part of their propaganda play to restore their status of strength towards the rest of the arab world. If the US gets involved, these bunkers are pretty vulnerable to our massive penetrators and one only has to essentially seal the entrances/exits off to make them unusable.

Syria -

A fleet of Russian Naval vessels, including several cargo vessels and amphibious warships, are still waiting off the coast of Syria for permission to enter the Port of Tartus.

OBSERVATION - These vessels are there to complete the withdrawal of equipment staged at the port.

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