Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

Globalism / Great Reset –

See Europe/NATO below on the EU’s aggressive interference with national elections.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 1, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

Still monitoring potential actions on Jan 20th.

***

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 2, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

The inauguration poses a significant target due to the numbers of people expected to be present for the event.

***
There is some inklings that the fires set in the LA area may have some linkage to terror. Evidence now points to arson being the cause of the Palisades fire in the LA area. Web camera footage shows an individual walking around a camp fire sized fire at the point of origin. Facts showing that most of the fires are being linked to arson. The biggest question being are these directed by outside groups, or random actions by homeless and illegals/criminals. Recent fire starts have been linked to criminal gangs who move in quickly to evacuated areas to loot before police can cordon off the areas.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

U.S. inflation data in the coming week could test the nerves of stock investors and further inflame worries about rising Treasury yields and uncertainty over Donald Trump’s policy plans.

After back-to-back standout years, the stock market has wobbled out of the gate in 2025, with the benchmark S&P 500 down about 1% so far this year. A revival of inflation is seen as one of the key risks facing equities, with the Federal Reserve already pulling back on its projected interest rate cuts because it expects inflation to rise at a faster pace than it had previously anticipated.

Markets pushed out expectations for a next rate cut until June after a blowout U.S. jobs report on Friday, with stocks falling sharply and Treasury yields hitting fresh milestones following the December employment data. The monthly consumer price index, due on Jan 15, is among the most closely watched inflation measures and could spark further market volatility if it comes in higher than expectations, investors said.

The December CPI is expected to show a 0.3% increase on a monthly basis, according to a Reuters poll.

While the Fed was confident enough that inflation had moderated to start cutting interest rates in September, the pace of annual inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% target. The Fed now projects inflation will rise 2.5% in 2025.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/markets-bond-yields/2025/01/12/id/1194746/

OBSERVATION - The biden/democrat victory lap of the past week regarding the economy was nothing but smoke and mirrors. We are still deep in the woods, with the potential for inflation to take off again only to be followed by further economy damaging higher Fed rates.

***
Oil prices hit their highest level in more than three months on Monday’s open, extending their rally on expectations that wider U.S. sanctions will affect Russian crude supplies to the world’s top and third largest importers China and India.

Brent crude futures climbed $1.35, or 1.69%, to $81.11 a barrel by 2339 GMT after hitting an intraday high of $81.44, the highest since Aug. 27.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.40, or 1.83% to $77.97 a barrel after touching a high of $78.32, the loftiest price since Oct. 8.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/oil-sanctions-russia/2025/01/12/id/1194780/

OBSERVATION - This sanction has closed off much of the black market oil trade for Russia. China in particular has stopped Russian oil tankers from docking and unloading as main land companies fear sanctions from the US for doing so. This is driving China to get oil at market prices (versus the discounted Russian oil) from the open market. Here in the Redoubt, prices has jumped up by 10 cents a gallon over the past couple weeks. The speed at which the market has adjusted to these new sanctions is interesting.

POLITICAL FRONT –

As the country moves towards the Trump inauguration in a week, blue state / city leaders continue to try to develop countermeasures to Trump’s agenda. Most significantly, to interfere with deportations.
This is most likely the hot button issue for 2025.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Moving vans showing up at the WH.

Illegal Immigration –

The identified arsons in the LA area have so far turned out to be illegals, along with many of the looters.

North/South Korea –

NK has lost approximately 30% of its forces sent to Ukraine over the past few weeks. Two wounded NK soldiers have been captured and Ukraine has offered their return as part of a broader prisoner swap.

Russia -

Economic Impact –

New rounds of sanctions against Russian’s “ghost fleet” of oil tankers used to try to get around sanctions imposed by the west because of its war in Ukraine.

Today (Wednesday), the U.S. Department of the Treasury took sweeping action to fulfill the G7 commitment to reduce Russian revenues from energy, including blocking two major Russian oil producers. Today’s actions also impose sanctions on an unprecedented number of oil-carrying vessels, many of which are part of the “shadow fleet,” opaque traders of Russian oil, Russia-based oilfield service providers, and Russian energy officials. Today’s actions are underpinned by the issuance of a new determination that authorizes sanctions pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 14024 against persons operating or having operated in the energy sector of the Russian Federation economy. These actions substantially increase the sanctions risks associated with the Russian oil trade.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2777

OBSERVATION - Russia has depended heavily upon oil / gas revenues to sustain its war against Ukraine. News showing a dozen or so of these ‘ghost’ tankers stalled off shore of China unable to unload for fear by Chinese companies of US and European sanctions are going to bite hard.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling into the 20-30 with rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia once again attacked Ukraine with Shahed drones. Out of 110 launched, 78 were shot down by regular air defense and another 31 were suppressed by electronic warfare

Russian losses per 13/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1510 men
+8 tanks
+26 AFVs
+37 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+2 AD systems

Russian Ministry of Defense claims drones have attempted to attack “Russkaya pumping station” near Anapa of Krasnodar Krai, used to pump natural gas into “Turkish stream” pipeline

Western intelligence sources indicate that NK forces have suffered 30% losses.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces make headway southwest of the town.

Summary —

Moderately heavy fighting continues. Driving NK losses are the massed meat attacks Russia has sent these forces into. So far no reports of additional NK forces being sent to the Ukraine front.

Other analysts are indicating that for the first time since the start of the war in 2022, Ukraine has the advantage in tanks. Russians reportedly are more and more reluctant to send tanks forward with attacking infantry, preferring to dig them in and have them serve as a gun emplacement. If true, this will greatly reduce the tanks available to exploit any break thru of Ukraine defenses.

Europe / NATO General –

GERMANY - On Saturday, while its conference was under way in the eastern city of Riesa, in Saxony, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) laid out ambitions to close Germany’s borders, resume buying Russian gas and, in effect, dismantle the EU.

German media reported that party’s agreed manifesto includes plans to quit the Paris climate deal, exit the Euro currency and create a new confederation of states.

The AfD’s leader, Alice Weidel, even publicly embraced the term “remigration” - a word that’s widely understood to mean the mass “return” or deportation of people with a migrant background.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62q937y029o

OBSERVATION - The right has been gaining traction over the past few years, due in measure to the economic disaster resulting from Germany’s Net Zero goals and the overwhelming of the society by largely moslem immigrants who’ve essentially taken over parts of the country and have essentially been protected by leftist politicians. AfD gained a huge boost when Musk interviewed AfD’s frontwoman, Alice Weidel. This threw the German left into convulsions in that the AfD’s message was able to get out in spite of attempts at censorship. With the movement continue to gain traction as the country moves towards elections on 23 February?

***
ROMANIA -
Hundreds of thousands of Romanians furious with the current government for the cancellation of the presidential election marched today (12) through the capital Bucharest to demand that the vote should proceed and that outgoing – and by now illegitimate – President Klaus Iohannis should resign. Reuters reported:

“In a move that polarized voters, Romania’s top court voided the presidential election on Dec. 6, two days before the second round.

The nullification of the first round of the elections was driven in part by the EU because of the significant number of votes that ultra-nationalist Călin Georgescu gained.

The EU over the course of the past month, has gotten more aggressive in interfering with voting in these countries as more conservative candidates take leads that would challenge its ruling authority. EU is also wielding claims of ‘misinformation’ and Russia interference (partially correct) as reasons to interject Brussels into national elections.

A component of this is EU’s aggressive roll out of the the Digital Services Act (DSA) this year, further designed to censor free speech and criminalize that which is deemed to be against the ‘narrative’.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- New peace agreement in play?

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Mediator Qatar handed Israel and Hamas a “final” draft of a ceasefire and hostage release agreement to end the Gaza war, an official briefed on the negotiations told Reuters on Monday. Breakthrough reached in Doha after midnight following talks between Israel’s spy chiefs, President-elect Trump’s Middle East envoy and Qatar’s prime minister, the official said. Already denounced by Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Smotrich as “catastrophic for Israel’s national security”

***
Netanyahu and biden spoke yesterday about the cease fire talks with Hamas. Unconfirmed reports state that biden continued to threaten Israel with sanctions and arms cutoffs unless Israel fully concedes to Hamas demands. Also hanging over Israel’s head is the threat of a non-veto of any UN Security council actions against Israel - which will unlikely be able to be reversed by any Trump administration actions.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Hamas has launched an aggressive recruitment drive to recover from heavy losses in the war. The effort, led by Muhammad Sinwar, brother of slain leader Yahya Sinwar, has drawn sharp attention. “We are actively working to locate him,” a senior IDF official revealed.

***
The sudden Hamas willingness to compromise on the hostage issue has come as a shock to Israel, according to news reports. This follows a series of hardline statement of no compromise in recent weeks.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IDF: We attacked border crossings between Lebanon and Syria, and two more Hezbollah military sites that have terrorist organizations, which we requested the Lebanese army to handle - and they did not.

The Israeli attacks targeted in four waves, the valleys located between the towns of:

- Arabsalim
- Houmin al-Fawqa
- Deir al-Zahrani
- Rumin

Deir az-Zahrani, hit an ammo bunker with rockets seen in videos exploding in spectacular manner.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi have launched several drones in the past few days as ballistic missile strikes have dropped to zero.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Color me skeptical regarding the sudden awakening of Hamas towards the hostages and compromise to achieve a peace deal. I’ve not seen details, but reports suggest that it is similar to one earlier this year that Hamas then turned around and rejected. Hamas knows the hostages are an emotional issue with Israel and it wouldn’t surprise me if they are playing the game to get hopes up before smashing them again. Hard to connect last weeks restatement of Hamas hard line arguments to the sudden softness and willingness to concede anything to Israel.

Israel made a statement to Lebanon overnight - uphold your obligations to prevent Hezbollah from reorganizing and rearming or we will do it for you. Historically, the Lebanese and even UN military forces have turned a blind eye to Hezbollah action and Israel basically stated with the strikes they will hold Lebanon accountable for its failure to uphold their agreements.

Iran’s air defense exercises are an attempt to pull together a deterrent to Israel striking nuclear families. Combined with the start up of a new over the horizon radar system, they are trying to reestablish a credible defense ahead of expected new strikes. This could complicate Israel’s next round of airstrikes, but the inability of Iranian air defenses in the past suggest that Israel could take out what they need and proceed with their mission.

Iran has also been in nearly constant talks with Russia to get additional ADA assets to Iran as well as secure more technical support to develop a nuclear weapon.

Iran –

Iran conducted an air defense exercise for the second time in recent days.

OBSERVATION - Some analysts suggest that this activity reflects Iranian concerns about possible airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, as Tehran has continued to expand its nuclear program. They are trying to integrate remnants of its ADA capabilities to guard those facilities.

Armenia/Azerbaijan –

Azerbaijan demands that Armenia demilitarize, denazify, no longer contain it on behalf of foreign (Western) powers, stop obstructing regional trade routes, and allow ethnically cleansed Azeris to return.

Azerbaijani President Ilhan Aliyev gave a nearly three-hour-long interview to several local TV channels last week, during which time he signaled that his country might be preparing its own special operation against Armenia along the lines of Russia’s ongoing one in Ukraine. He of course didn’t use that term, but describing Armenia as a fascist state whose foreign-backed military buildup poses a threat to regional security very closely resembles Putin’s words about Ukraine ahead of large-scale hostilities.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/azerbaijan-signaled-that-it-might

OBSERVATION - Armenia is a low hanging fruit for the Azeri’s due to the inability of Russia to provide protection as well as a weakened trade ally in Iran. Azeri’s are also emboldened by the success of AQ/ISIS radical moslems take over of Syria. Armenia has been moving forward with a large militarization program, but it may not be enough to hold back the Turkish supported Azeris.

Misc of Note –

Using this to hang the ongoing LA firestorm. A lot of bullet items.

***

Death toll now up to 24

High winds that resumed on Sunday morning are expected to continue thru Wednesday.

See Terrorism above.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The darkest—and perhaps most interesting—theory centers around transforming Los Angeles into the smart city of the future. By clearing away older infrastructure and “starting fresh,” planners could have a blank canvas to implement their vision of SmartLA 2028.

Rebuilding after such devastation allows governments and developers to sidestep the usual red tape. Instead of going through years or decades of zoning battles and negotiations, the fires may provide an excuse to rebuild entire areas to fit futuristic goals. Los Angeles has already been a testing ground for innovation. Could the push for a connected, high-tech city tied to the Olympics explain why these fires seem oddly… convenient?

https://discern.tv/is-los-angeles-burning-to-set-up-smartla-2028/

OBSERVATION - WEF and affiliated globalist govts have been pushing the concept of the “15 Minute City” both as a means of social engineering and population control. SmartLA 2028 is a similar concept that was rolling even before the fires. With the fires, these planners may well be rubbing their hands at taking advantage of the disaster to fast forward their plans as the link indicates.

Unconfirmed, or at least suppressed, reports indicate that the state is moving to damaged areas rezoned from R1 (residential) to R3 (apartments). Given Kalifornian bureaucracy, few of the homes will likely be rebuilt within the 2 year grace period necessary to avoid imposition of new property values. This means that if you bought the house in the past for say $250K, today the same property is worth 2 million, you have two years to rebuild to keep the 250 property tax evaluation. KA permitting is almost guaranteed to take longer than 2 years - hence a lot of properties will be sold off (at bargain basement prices), making the way clear for these apartment complexes (and population concentration / controls) to be put into play.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 1, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

Still monitoring potential actions on Jan 20th.

***
A surprising number of federal government employees admit they are gearing up to act like a deep state, opposing the incoming second administration of Donald Trump.

On Election Day, 64% of the Elite 1% voted for Harris while only 34% voted for Trump. Yet among the Elite 1% who voted for Harris, a quarter (26%) said they are working to support the new administration.

Federal Government Managers, however, proved evenly split, with only 44% saying they would support the administration and 42% saying they would resist it.

The survey also asked Federal Government Managers what they would do if Trump gave them a lawful order that they considered to be bad policy. Only 17% of Democratic managers who voted for Harris would follow Trump’s order. Three times as many (64%) said they would ignore the order and do what they thought was best. This amounts to a declaration that they plan to act like a deep state, opposing the people’s elected president.

https://www.dailysignal.com/2025/01/13/deep-state-gearing-nearly-half-federal-employees-swamp-plan-resist-trump-poll-finds/

OBSERVATION - Hideous culture of the govt critter. Transparency - I’m a retired govt critter and cannot see such a level of resistance to my old employer - (USA Corps of Engineers). But I can clearly see this in more politicked departments like DoJ, IRS, DHS, etc. I’ll bet these nay sayers are also among the dead wood that could use some trimming away. Either case, sets up internal cold CW2 scenarios.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 2, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

The inauguration poses a significant target due to the numbers of people expected to be present for the event.

***
The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security are reportedly concerned about “possible copycat” vehicle-ramming attacks stemming from the New Orleans terror attack that occurred on New Year’s Day.
“The FBI and DHS are concerned about possible copycat or retaliatory attacks due to the persistent appeal of vehicle ramming as a tactic for aspiring violent extremist attackers. Previous attackers inspired by foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) who have conducted vehicle attacks in the United States and abroad have used rented, stolen, and personally owned vehicles, which are easy to acquire,” the joint statement read.

https://www.oann.com/newsroom/dhs-and-fbi-issue-warning-of-potential-copycat-threats-following-deadly-isis-inspired-new-orleans-attack/

***
Earlier in the day, Washington, D.C., police officials said they are “fully prepared” to maintain safety during President Donald Trump’s inauguration next Monday, while the FBI added it’s not tracking any “credible threats” in connection with the event.

Mayor Muriel Bowser held a press conference Monday to discuss security measures for the inauguration. She was joined by district and federal authorities.

“We are not currently tracking any specific or credible threats to the inaugural ceremony or to the Capitol complex,” FBI special agent David Sundberg said.

“We will continue to work closely with our partners to share information and identify and disrupt any threat that may emerge.”

U.S. Capitol Police Chief Thomas Manger said that besides the expected 250,000 ticketed inauguration guests, “folks showing up to participate in a number of demonstrations will be in the downtown area.”

“The biggest threat, I think for all of us, remains the lone actor,” Manger said. “Just in the past week, while President [Jimmy] Carter was lying in state, we had two lone actors show up at the Capitol, one trying to bring in knives and a machete, and another one who I believe was trying to disrupt the proceedings by setting their car on fire.”

https://www.newsmax.com/us/trump-inauguration-security/2025/01/13/id/1194874/

OBSERVATION - I have very little confidence in any of the law enforcement - especially their leadership - for Jan 20. This relates back to the gross negligence we say in Pennsylvania where Trump was wounded by a sniper who should have never gotten anywhere close as he did to him.

The potential used of vehicles is of particular concern. Extremists / Terrorists are well aware of the effect a large truck can have on unaware bystanders.

Word to the wise, freepers headed to DC for this event need to keep their heads on a swivel and even position themselves with vehicle and other attacks in mind, seeking places that provide cover and protection from both vehicles, guns and even explosives.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The evidence against Trump was “sufficient to obtain and sustain a conviction at trial,” Special Counsel Jack Smith wrote in a partially released report.
Trump hit back, saying Smith was “deranged” and his findings were “fake”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpqld79pxeqo

OBSERVATION - Smith is a deplorable piece of rubbish. His ‘evidence’ may fit a EU court level, but the fullness of the evidence would have won out in the end. He was brought in for only one purpose - to persecute (not prosecute) Trump. Is actions in many instances were clearly over the line and illegal, others danced around the periphery of lawlessness. But is shouldn’t surprise anyone - for starters he was illegally appointed and the DoJ had his back, so he could do what he wanted.

Illegal Immigration –

(FO) Panama reports that Darien Gap crossings cut by more than half from November to December 2024. The December numbers were also an 80% decrease year on year. Trump’s border czar Tom Homan said in an interview on Friday that working with the Panamanian government to shut down the Darien Gap was a matter of national security.

China –

China is building at least five new special purpose barges which appear tailor made for amphibious assault. The barges may provide the PRC (People’s Republic of China) with a unique way to offload large numbers of tanks directly onto Taiwanese roads.

A number of special and unusual barges, at least 3 but likely 5 or more, have been observed in Guangzhou Shipyard in southern China. These have unusually long road bridges extending from their bows. This configuration makes them particularly relevant to any future landing of PRC (People’s Republic of China) forces on Taiwanese islands.

Naval News has seen multiple sources confirming their construction, and has shared information with naval experts to validate our preliminary analysis. The consensus is that these are most likely for amphibious landings.

The barges are reminiscent of the Mulberry Harbours built for the allied invasion of Normandy during World War Two.

Damien Symon, a respected defence analyst who reviewed material shared, noted their suitability for docking with China’s large fleet of civilian ferries. China’s roll-on/roll-off (RORO) ferries are built to carry military vehicles including heavy main battle tanks. They are exercised in this role regularly.

Dr Salisbury agreed: “China is constructing a huge fleet of dual-use ships – commercial vessels that could be easily requisitioned for military use when needed. These include in particular roll-on/roll-off ships that would be perfect for transporting military vehicles – and have indeed been built with military specs in mind.”

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-building-fleet-of-special-barges-suitable-for-taiwan-landings/

OBSERVATION - China’s naval build up is massive, now surpassing the US in tonnage. Much of it is tailored to support of regional conflicts - within the far western pacific - and not global power projection like US carrier task forces.

Dual purpose vessels do fit much of China’s need to get material across the Straits to Taiwan. China still has a massive challenge in that in modern times, such an amphibious assault would have to be massive - leaving it prone to similarly massive losses. Secondly, the Chinese military has no experience in such a scale of operations.

So where do these new ships fit in? Intelligence assessments still lean towards a blockade strategy against Taiwan, forcing it into submission. These vessels could be used to rapidly get equipment onto the Island once it submits to China’s demands. In the event of a failure of the blockade, then the invasion option becomes the mechanism, and again, China would need the sea lift capacity to breach Taiwan ground defenses. Needless to say, China would incur heavy casualties and possibly start a war with the US over either option.

North/South Korea –

NK fired off a short range ballistic missile overnight.

Russia -

“The Baltics should belong to Russia”, according to Russian MP and deputy head of the Defense Committee of the Duma, Aleksei Zhuravlev.

In particular, he claimed that Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania was rightfully Russian, as it was part of the Russian Empire.

The deputy also noted that the Suwałki gap could be useful for Russia, as it would provide convenient supply routes to the Kaliningrad region. He urged the Lithuanian authorities to “hold their tongues,” adding that the Lithuanian army would not withstand a confrontation with Russia for even a single day.

These statements are no longer just coming from propagandists on television; they are being voiced by Russian officials. Russia has discarded its last inhibitions and no longer pretends to care about international law.

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1878382216046170429

***
Russian President Vladimir Putin will host Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian for talks on 17 January and afterwards sign a comprehensive strategy partnership pact. The pact strengthens ties between the two countries, with provisions related to trade, investment, transport and logistics, and defense, and employs the same terminology used in a similar agreement with North Korea from last year.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling into the 20-30 with rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 80 shahed drones into Ukraine. A total of 58 were shot down, and 21 more were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 14/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+1330 men
+3 tanks
+11 AFVs
+47 artillery systems
+1 MLRS

Overnight, more than 100 Ukrainian drones attacked Russia, with explosions reported in 12 regions. Fires broke out at the Orgsintez plant in Kazan and an oil depot in Engels, while explosions were heard in Tambov, Voronezh, Tula, Orel, and Rostov regions. Airports in four cities were closed under the “Carpet” plan. Russian sources claim up to 200 drones and ATACMS missiles were involved in the attack.

The “Orgsintez” plant in the Russian city of Kazan specializes in the production of chemicals, including polymers, copolymers of ethylene, polyethylene, polycarbonates, bisphenol, ethanolamines, acetone, and phenol.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces make headway southwest of the town. Efforts now seem to be to interdict Ukrainian supply lines to the town from the east and the west.

Summary —

Heavy Ukraine drone attacks overnight that appear to have been largely successful. In many instances in the past, even those shot down cause a lot of damage, especially if the debris falls onto the desired target. Ukraine is also mixing up the target set to include other industrial facilities besides oil/gas related. Recent use of ATACMS have resulted in several Russian Brigade headquarters being taken out. I would expect to see a large Russia response using cruse and ballistic missiles in addition to Shahed drones.

Russian attack on Pokrovsk continues to gain ground at a snail’s pace. Russia continues to try to bypass the city’s defenses and force out the defenders through threat of encirclement.

Europe / NATO General –

Sweden reports signs of anchor damage to the Nordbalt energy cable, linking Sweden and Lithuania. The damage is believed to have been caused by the Chinese vessel Yi Peng 3 in November, which severed cables between Sweden, Lithuania, Germany, and Finland. Investigators suspect sabotage.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- A great deal of talk of a hostage / ceasefire breakthrough.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Trump’s envoy informed Israel PM Netanyahu during their meeting that the consequences of not concluding hostages deal will be imposed on Israel as well, according to the Qatarian outlet Al-Araby.

Unconfirmed reports that Hamas has accepted the terms, however that is based on the political arm of Hamas negotiating the terms in Qatar, word is still pending from the military wing in Gaza, where they have been demanding a harder line.

This agreement of the hostage deal between Israel and Hamas reportedly consists of the following points -

- 33 hostages to be released in the first phase of the agreement.
(However, there is some confusion in the press on timings and numbers to be released. One report that 3 hostages would be released week 1, 4 more on week two)

- No deportations: Terrorists with blood on their hands won’t be sent to the West Bank.

- A buffer zone will be established in Gaza for security.

- Israel will remain in Gaza until all hostages are freed.

- During the truce, Israel will hold the Philadelphi Corridor.

- Security arrangements will allow Palestinians to return to northern Gaza via the Netzarim Corridor

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Selective air strikes on Hamas concentrations.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

More liquidation of Hezbollah infrastructure in S Lebanon.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi’s fired off two ballistic missiles overnight, both were intercepted.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

This hostage / ceasefire ‘deal’ is very bad for Israel and is overwhelmingly weighted towards Hamas. Similar has been proposed over the course of the last year, and Hamas rejected them all. Currently, the political arm of Hamas is negotiating in Qatar while the real decision maker is Sinwar’s brother in Gaza. The military arm has been very tight on the demand that Israel essentially completely surrenders.

What is further bad is that Trump allowed his negotiator to essentially sell out his promise to support Israel’s fight by siding with the current regimes demands of essential surrender by Israel. Completely under cutting Trump’s threat to unleash ‘hell’ if Hamas refuses to release hostages. Trump’s misguided desire to end the situation before he enters office with this kind of action is setting up for a foreign policy debacle right out of the gate.

It is questionable if Hamas (military) will accept the conditions - especially given their stance on complete withdrawal of IDF before any hostage is released. Israel will he hard pressed to accept as written as well, recognizing it would be read as weakness to the region and not really achieving any of the stated goals. I think Israel will play this out until after the inauguration hoping to get a better deal and support from Trump. That hope was voiced by JD Vance saying Trump would support Israel if Hamas violates this agreement to run the terrorists to ground and completely annihilate them.

Again, very sad and disturbing wavering of US support to Israel by Trump.

How this pans out is yet to be seen.

Iran –

New accord with Russia - See Russia above

Misc of Note –

Using this to hang the ongoing LA firestorm. A lot of bullet items.

***
biden’s Regime is to provide $750 to the victims of the fires. Well at least he is consistent.

Red flag warnings of winds upwards of 70 mph that could rekindle fires or drive new ones.

See Globalism / Great Reset regarding the SmartLA 2028 effects that are building on the horizon.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The CEO of the World Economic Forum has expressed satisfaction with Trump’s decision to attend Davos 2025.

OBSERVATION - This could be tense and we’ll see just what Trump is made of for this term. He can either tell them to stuff it or talk another deal of the century.

Yes, I’m suddenly skeptical given how his negotiator stabbed Israel in the back over the Hamas/gaza issue this weekend.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 1, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

Still monitoring potential actions on Jan 20th.

***
A level of state civil war has broken out in Minnesota, as democrats had a secret swearing-in ceremony out of session in an unprecedented move, IIRC including a candidate who was tossed out for illegally residing outside the district he ran in. This case of fraud gave the republicans in the state legislature a one vote margin of victory. Now democrats are refusing to attend sessions and failed VP candidate Walz was trying to dictate to the republicans when the legislature is ‘in session’. Walz has no constitutional authority to determine when or if the House is in session.

***
An undercover journalist for James O’Keefe has caught a former Hillary staffer, now-senior advisor to the the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the Department of Defense, talking about how he’s trying to sabotage President Trump.

This FBI ‘spy hunter’ didn’t reveal much detail, only to say “I’m in conversation with a couple of retired generals to try to explore what we can do.”

https://therightscoop.com/breaking-video-james-okeefe-catches-former-hillary-staffer-at-pentagon-trying-to-sabotage-trump-update-fired/

OBSERVATION - This is a dangerous development - fomenting insurrection and treason. It is a very good reason that the perfumed princes in the pentagon are facing termination and those who’ve retired deserve to be called back to duty and court marshaled for action like this.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 2, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

Explosives reportedly were found in Chicago South Side high-rise apartments by a HVAC worker -
“I came across some C4, some explosives, a rifle, A LOT OF FAKE IDs, a lot of fireman stuff, a lot of police force stuff, it was fake”

Upon investigation by police, it was found that the explosives and firearms were all fake. The individual who’s apartment ductwork these items were found in has a very questionable history and needs further investigation. Fake explosives can provide a terror effect and force police responses - for a variety of purposes. Uniforms and fake ID’s are troubling as it would grant access to areas normally unavailable to civilian dressed individuals. We saw this with the looters who were dressed in fire fighter apparel in LA.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

A deadly bird flu outbreak has wreaked havoc on U.S. chicken farms, claiming the lives of over 20 million egg-laying chickens last quarter, marking the worst impact on America’s egg supply since the outbreak began in 2022..

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data shows the staggering toll included chickens culled to contain the virus, too. This, in turn, has contributed to record-high egg prices across all production types, including conventional, cage-free, and certified organic systems, a USDA report published on Jan. 10 shows.

https://www.newsmax.com/health/health-news/bird-flu-chickens-deaths/2025/01/14/id/1194987/

OBSERVATION - This will also affect those foods that use eggs as ingredients, such as bread and other items.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Pete Hegseth embarrassed Dem leaders in yesterday’s Senate showdown. Numerous ‘gotcha’ questions were thrown his way and deftly swatted aside. I couldn’t believe that the ‘rats would even bring up his Jerusalem Cross tats - given it was published on the cover of Carter’s memorial handout as well as on the floor of the church his coffin was set on.

***
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem’s confirmation hearing was pushed pack on Tuesday, making her the third of President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet nominees to have their confirmation hearings moved while allegedly waiting for the FBI to complete its paperwork.

The change comes after Senate panels delayed the confirmation hearings of Trump’s nominees for Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, and Veteran Affairs Secretary Mike Collins on Monday. Burgum is still expected to testify this week, on Thursday, but Collins will not appear before his panel until next week.

Trump’s Attorney General nominee Pam Bondi, CIA Director nominee John Ratcliffe, Secretary of State nominee Sen. Marco Rubio, and Transportation Secretary nominee Sean Duffy are all still slated to appear in front of their respective committees on Wednesday.

Energy Secretary nominee Chris Wright and Trump’s Office of Management and Budget director nominee Russ Vought will also testify in front of their committees on Wednesday.

https://justthenews.com/government/congress/noem-becomes-third-trump-nominee-have-hearing-delayed-over-fbi-background-check?utm_source=mux&utm_medium=social-media&utm_campaign=social-media-autopost

OBSERVATION - We knew that the FBI would work to delay these nominations, so it shouldn’t be a shocker.

Biden / Harris Watch –

As one of his Last Acts in Office, U.S. President Joe Biden will lift the “State Sponsor of Terrorism” Designation from the Island of Cuba as early as Wednesday; with Congress expected to be notified of the Action by Tuesday Afternoon. This Act by President Biden comes nearly Four Years to the Day since President Donald J. Trump placed Cuba back on that List, as one of his Last Acts as President in 2021.

***
In a repugnant act, harris has refused Vance early access to the VP residence - commonly done in the past.

North/South Korea –

After a tense standoff last night, Public Prosecution Service arrested President Yoon Suk-yeol on charges of leading a rebellion and other offenses.

It is the first time in constitutional history of South Korea that a sitting president has been arrested by a law enforcement agency.

Russia -

Russia had a massive internet outage, reportedly caused by a major cyberattack, disrupting services for Beeline, Megafon, and Tele2 users. To make matters worse, the website used to monitor internet disruptions was also offline.

https://x.com/osint613/status/1879187866762518867?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling into the 20-30 with rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched retaliatory drone/missile strikes as I expected yesterday, aiming for gas storage facilities and critical infrastructure in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions.

Ukrainian air defense shot down 23 of 27 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 3 of 4 Kaliber cruise missiles, and 4 of 4 Kh-59/69 aviation guided cruise missile, fired from Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS strategic bombers. 74/74 Shahed drones (47 shot down, 27 suppressed by electronic warfare).

Russia also launched S-300/S-400 in ballistic missile mode from the Belgorod region towards Kharkiv region

Russian losses per 15/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1580 men
+13 tanks
+22 AFVs
+52 artillery systems
+2 AD systems

Kursk Front -
Videos reportedly showing N Korean soldiers advancing by foot across large open fields in a ‘meat assault’ maneuver - and being picked apart by drones and artillery.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Ukrainka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Summary —

Russia has typically launched large drone/missile strikes following large Ukrainian strikes. This one displayed a growing weakness in Russia’s capabilities. Ukraine has gotten very good at taking out the Shaheds, with EW and good old fashioned .50 cal style shooting. The cruise missiles launched overnight are not much more than fast drones. Shifting the defenses for the drones away from missiles has permitted cruise missile defenses to be more aggressive with ADA missiles. This was a moderately large attack by Russia and was pretty much negated by Ukrainian defenses.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Turbulence surrounds reported hostage deal

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Hamas have reportedly requested an extension to the deadline regarding the ongoing ceasefire talks.

The request for an extension is allegedly due to the Hamas leadership needing more time to examine the ceasefire proposals, prior to any potential agreements.

NOTE - There is not agreement between the military and diplomatic wings of Hamas. This delay is likely on the part of Sinwar’s brother, who’s taken over command of Hamas forces in Gaza. He has been very hardline.

Still more confusion regarding the details of the proposed agreement.
- Israeli Force agree to withdraw from populated areas across the Gaza Strip. - During the first phase of the ceasefire, lasting roughly six weeks, a total of 33 hostages (Alive and Deceased) will be released, with 30 Palestinian minors and women being released from Israeli prisons for each hostage, and 50 prisoners for each female Israeli soldier.
- By Week Six, Israel will release 47 Palestinians arrested after the 2011 prisoner exchange, as well as any women and children arrested since October 7th, 2023.
- During the third phase at week twelve, any additional bodies of hostages will be returned to Israel and a reconstruction plan will be implemented for the Gaza Strip over the next 3-5 Years, led by Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations.

The deal appears to make it clear that it is not believed there are more than 30 of the 94 hostages remaining in Gaza, are still alive.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1879370061569274113?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

Hamas has no requirement to provide a list of names of those still being held. The overall deal would see the release of 1000s of Hamas terrorists back into the system.

Hamas is now seeking US promises to make sure Israel upholds its end of any agreement - notably, no accountability towards Hamas is they violate their end.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Israeli army issues new evacuation orders for areas in Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

The Israeli army says troops operating in southern Syria since the fall of the Assad regime have captured over 3,300 weapons and other spoils. Among the weapons captured include two tanks, 70 grenades, 165 shells and rockets, 20 anti-aircraft missiles, and some 1,500 RPGs, the military says

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

IAF targeted at least 4 members of the PIJ, including a senior Jenin commander with a drone strike. All were reported dead.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Some confusion as to the status of the proposal. Hamas seems to be delaying its final approval. It is not a good deal for Israel, but is one being forced by both biden and trump agents. One key item that isn’t on the agenda is the linkage to a two state solution. Guess we can be thankful for little blessings. This so called agreement will only cause the cycle to begin again, and encourage Hamas to try to capture more hostages in the future and getting thousands of its fellow terrorists released in exchange.

With all that, I remain doubtful that the military leadership will accept the proposal as it doesn’t go far enough to meet its level of demands and has vetoed similar proposals in the past.

Israel on its part is being forced to suck up this as essentially a defeat, not attaining its stated goal and right when they have their foot on Hamas’ throat.

Iraq -

This morning, an Iraqi army force penetrated 150 meters into the Al-Yarubiyah area on the Syrian side to take control of a SDF point in the village of Al-Mashhaniya, northeastern Syria, after border tensions with the Syrian Democratic Forces.

Turkey –

President Erdoğan: Israel, especially the forces attacking Syrian territory, must immediately put an end to their aggressive actions. Otherwise, the consequences will have a negative impact on everyone.

OBSERVATION - But it is ok for Turkey to do the same.

***
Jordanian warplanes carried out an aerial bombardment in the southern Syrian province of Suweida. The bombardment targeted homes belonging to drug traffickers in the region

Misc of Note –

Using this to hang the ongoing LA firestorm. A lot of bullet items.

***
Incompetence reigns - Los Angeles Fire Department Chief Kristin Crowley confirmed that more than 100 fire trucks — over half the fleet — were in need of repairs and out of commission due to budget cuts when wildfires ravaged the area this week. The LAFD fleet has 183 fire trucks, the Daily Mail reported.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 1, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

Still monitoring potential actions on Jan 20th.

***
A dozen or so pro-hamas rallies across the US on tap for this weekend. Attendance may be higher due to the tentative cease fire agreement.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 2, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

China’s DJI, the world’s largest drone manufacturer, has disabled U.S. geofencing on its drones, enabling flights over airports, military bases, and no-fly zones. DJI says it is putting “control back in the hands of the drone operators”

OBSERVATION - The change in software is critical here. Previous software prevented these drones from entering prohibited space. This update removes that level of prevention. Now it deals with this brand of drones. The suspect drones that have been plaguing the world of late probably didn’t include such controlling software, so not a big change, but still very significant that off there shelf droned and penetrate into controlled airspace now.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

Stocks surged on Wednesday after the latest consumer price index report showed core inflation unexpectedly slowed in December, and major U.S. banks kicked off quarterly earnings reporting season with blowout results.

December’s consumer price index showed that core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. This was a notch down from the previous month and lower than the 3.3% estimated by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Headline inflation increased 2.9% on a 12-month basis, in line with forecasts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/14/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

OBSERVATION - Numbers game as usual.

***
(FO) According to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short Term Energy Outlook report, global oil production growth will outpace demand and put downward pressure on oil prices in 2025 and 2026. The EIA report said oil demand growth slowed sharply in 2024 in the U.S. and China, the largest global oil consumers.

OBSERVATION - Many have noted the demand drop reflects the serious drop in economies of both the US and China. When things are humming, activity uses more petroleum, increasing demand and prices.

Biden / Harris Watch –

biden gave his farewell speech last night and it went about as expected.

“Sitting behind the Resolute Desk, the president ranted and raved about random topics, including “fact-checking” on social media sites. Given how silly and granular of a thing that is to bring up at a farewell address, I can only assume his handlers have just completely given up at this point. Can you blame them?”

“Past presidents have used their addresses to speak to the American people about high-level ideals. Joe Biden angrily complained about the moderation policies on a social media platform. You can’t make this stuff up.”

“Then there was the senility. Aside from Biden’s clear lack of energy and constant slurring of his words, the president had yet another Ron Burgundy moment, reading “end of quote” off the teleprompter as he wrapped up his speech.”

https://redstate.com/bonchie/2025/01/15/biden-gives-train-wreck-of-a-farewell-speech-goes-ron-burgundy-again-oddly-rants-about-social-media-n2184404#google_vignette

Japan –

(FO) The Foreign Ministers of Japan and the Philippines held a joint press conference after their latest meeting and announced that the two nations would “further strengthen our bilateral and multilateral cooperation.” Japan’s FM further promised additional defense equipment to the Philippines.
The Philippine FM floated the option of multilateral expansion by adding, “Any collaborative endeavor within our region is really meant to be inclusive” and “open to any like-minded countries.”

OBSERVATION - Growing cooperation of nations in the face of Chinese aggressiveness in the region.

Phillipines –

(FO) The Armed Forces of the Philippines announced they have adopted contingency plans to respond to Chinese attempts to seize Philippines shoals and islands. These “red lines” for the Philippines government include an attempted seizure of the Scarborough Shoal. Officials say Chinese Coast Guard patrols are getting nearer to the shores.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling into the 20-30 with rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Ukrainian air defense repelled a Russian shahed drone attack. In total, 55 were launched towards Ukraine, 34 were shot down and another 18 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 16/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1480 men
+11 tanks
+20 AFVs
+40 artillery systems
+137 logistics vehicles

Ukraine drones have attacked oil depot in Voronezh region and according to Russian channels, Ukrainian drones launched a massive attack on Russia’s Tambov region, reportedly targeting a gunpowder plant near Kuzmino-Gat. Locals reported spotting multiple aircraft-type UAVs, hearing air defense systems in action, and seeing flashes in the sky.

Summary —

Political maneuvering on attempts to gain a ceasefire continue on a strategic level.
Otherwise, pretty standard days worth of fighting.

Europe / NATO General –

(FO) NATO is launching a new mission to protect undersea infrastructure called Baltic Sentry. All eight Baltic nations that are NATO members are participating using naval surface combatants, maritime patrol aircraft, naval drones, and “national surveillance assets” to deter and respond to attacks in the infrastructure.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas creating new demands may derail agreement.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel PM Netanyahu says Hamas is creating a last moment crisis, the cabinet will not be convened until it approves all agreement’s details

Israel PM Netanyahu promised his ministers that the war in Gaza would be renewed after the first phase of the agreement, according to Israeli media reports, despite US statements that the the deal would lead to a permanent truce

U.S. State Department Spokesman, Matthew Miller states that of the 7 American Hostages remaining in the Gaza Strip, only 3 are thought to be Alive, with the other 4 known to be Dead.

After the ceasefire announcement, Hamas leader Khalil al-Haya’s speech live from Qatar. He expressed pride in the Oct. 7th massacre and has promised to do it AGAIN.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi spokesperson Muhammed Abdul Salam announced the end of ‘military operations’ against Israel following the announcement of the ceasefire in Gaza.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

German Chancellor: Gaza ceasefire agreement must be fully implemented

Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman: The two parties agreed to start the ceasefire at 12:15 pm on Sunday

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas backtracking on agreed points is pretty much their MO, in an effort to leverage more concessions from Israel. Israel bent far for this agreement and very unlikely to go any further. biden’s threats of allowing UN action remain, so Israel may be forced to play this game for another four days.

Hamas is also playing a dangerous game, especially if they cause the deal to crash. Trump’s Sec Def and Sec State nominees have been clear, Hamas should be ground to dust and would fully support Israel doing so.

Syria -

Deir Ezzor: Two air raids by the international coalition aircraft on Mount Tharda near Deir Ezzor military airport. This follows missiles of unknown origin striking near the Conoco gas field, one of the international coalition forces’ bases. Warplanes are still flying over the skies of Deir Ezzor city.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Bill Gates and his allies are pushing insect protein as an alternative food source, raising concerns over traditional food systems.

The Gates Foundation’s All Things Bugs initiative, supported by DARPA, is now using CRISPR/Cas9 to create genetically modified insects, with potential long-term safety and ethical questions.

The U.S. military is being used as a testing ground for these experimental foods, with the ultimate goal of normalizing insect consumption among the broader population.

Critics argue that labeling and transparency are lacking, and insect-based foods are being allowed into the market without rigorous safety testing.

The global push for alternative proteins like insect and lab-grown meat may be more about control over the food supply than sustainability or environmental benefits.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2025-01-16-us-military-testing-ground-gates-insect-protein.html

OBSERVATION - Gates has his fingers in so many efforts to depopulate the world and feed the survivors bugs it is unbelievable. He really needs to be jailed for some of his actions in this regard.

***
And more Gates -

Scientists around the world are advancing efforts to fulfill Bill Gates’ plan to supposedly stop “global warming” by blocking out light and heat from the Sun.
Silicon Valley elites are throwing their financial weight behind a controversial scheme to fight “climate change” — worldwide weather modification.
One of the new VC-funded start-ups, Make Sunsets, has already launched balloons over Baja, Mexico.
The balloons are releasing sunlight-reflecting aerosols into Earth’s stratosphere.
The firm’s concept is to cool Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space via sulfate aerosols.

In fact, it’s one of many exotic ideas now actively funded by Microsoft co-founder Gates, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, and others in Big Tech.

https://slaynews.com/news/scientists-advance-bill-gates-plan-stop-global-warming-blocking-sun/

OBSERVATION - And another evil scheme by Gates. Very fundamental element of the whole plan. By blocking sunlight, you inhibit plant growth - ie you lose harvests and people starve. Massive volcanic eruptions in the past history have demonstrated this by doing essentially what Gates wants- blocking the sunlight. This resulted in the infamous years without summers and other catastrophes from crop losses and sudden frigid temperatures.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 1, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

Still monitoring potential actions on Jan 20th.

***
Some areas in LA have gone “rooftop korean” with residents staying in their neighborhoods, armed, guarding theirs and neighbors property from looters and fire flair ups. LAPD and NG resources are not sufficient to stop the massive waves of looters who find their way into evacuated areas and pick them clean. Police reportedly have not moved to drive them out, but if they leave, they will not be let back in. Supplies are being allowed to be dropped off at checkpoints to be picked up by “the stayers” to be resupplied.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 2, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

Former New York City Police Commissioner Bernie Kerik told Newsmax Thursday that although there is no “specific threat” against President-elect Donald Trump, “the threat is real” going into Inauguration Day.

The Telegraph reported that Trump will be protected by 7,800 soldiers and nearly 25,000 police officers as well as two FBI field offices, a fleet of drones, and over 30 miles of fencing as he takes the oath of office.

Kerik said it’s important to keep in mind there were no active threats on the day Trump was shot in Butler, Pennsylvania.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/bernie-kerik-donald-trump-secret-service/2025/01/16/id/1195382/

OBSERVATION - J20 is a critical day, and with so many global/deep state threats, an assassination or even the attempt of one could throw the country and the political fight in DC wide open. Elements of the left have been openly calling for attacks like this, and islamists may feel emboldened by the apparent weakness displayed by Trump and the US in regards to the hostage / ceasefire efforts in Gaza, to strike out in some manner.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

The question has to be asked again. If the economy is so great, why are Americans struggling so much to make ends meet?

POLITICAL FRONT –

Confirmation hearings this week were full of sparks and fireworks. Democrats made fools of themselves and once again displayed why America voted for Trump in the numbers that they did.

Illegal Immigration –

A network of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and United Nations-affiliated groups plan on continuing to use American taxpayer dollars to aid illegal immigrants attempting to unlawfully cross the U.S. southern border despite President-elect Donald J. Trump’s pledge to tighten border controls. According to a document produced by the Regional Interagency Coordination Platform for Refugees and Migrants of Venezuela—a joint project of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the International Organization For Migration (IOM-UN Migration)—230 NGOs and 14 UN-affiliated agencies will use their 2025 funding to support continued mass migration into the United States.

The planning document calls for $1.4 billion to be budgeted for assisting an estimated 2.3 million illegal immigrants expected to surge toward the U.S. border with Mexico. Additionally, the 2025-2026 “Regional Refugee and Migrant Response Plan” (RMRP) details funding allocations for various services like cash assistance, food provision, and health services to support migrants on their trek through 17 Latin American nations.

https://thenationalpulse.com/2025/01/15/un-ngos-plan-to-fuel-mass-migration-despite-trumps-planned-border-crackdown/

OBSERVATION - Excellent candidate for zero budgeting by the US and further reason to cut aid to the UN in general.

North/South Korea –

See Russia below on NK troops in Moscow parade.

Russia -

Russian sources report that North Korea will participate in Moscow’s Victory Day parade on May 9, marking the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. North Korean military personnel are expected to take part. This will be the first time North Korean forces have participated in such events. Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov confirmed that military units from 19 allied countries have been invited, with 10 already confirming their participation.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30s with rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reports a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 50 launched, 33 were shot down and another 9 were supressed by electronic warfare, one more left Ukrainian airspace in the direction of Romania.

Russian losses per 17/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1670 men
+12 tanks
+13 AFVs
+4 artillery systems
+124 utility vehicles

Russian ballistic missiles struck Kryvyi Rih overnight, killing 3.

Kursk Front -

Russian attacks have dwindled to about 4 from a recent high of 50 per day.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Focus of Russian’s main effort, though gaining very little ground at a high price.

Summary —

Moderately high losses reflecting similar level of Russian attacks. Russia has been fortunate in that levels of rain/snow have been relatively low in comparison to previous years. This allows the soils to be a little firmer in supporting vehicles involved in attacks.

Russian armored attack tactics show little change from previous years. Column of a company sized or smaller element rushes down a road, detected by Ukraine surveillance and is pounced upon by FPV drones and precision artillery strikes, resulting in the loss of vehicles and heavy casualties as Russian troops flee on foot. No evidence of any fire support or even smoke to provide some protection - just running in the open.

No apparent threats of any breakouts, and if the defenses did get breached, Russia is in a poor position to exploit.

Belarus -

Observers note that Belarus is constructing defensive lines along its border with Ukraine.

Europe / NATO General –

The Romanian Ministry of Defense is reporting that its national airspace was breached last night, during a Russian drone attack against the Odesa region of Southern Ukraine. The drone was discovered near the City of Tulcea in Northeast Romanian, near the border with Ukraine.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hostage / cease fire agreement moves forward

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu’s office announces security cabinet’s approval of Gaza deal

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Israeli army: We bombed about 50 targets in Gaza in the last 24 hours

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IDF continued to rubble Hezbollah infrastructure

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli security forces continue to be active within the area

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Unconfirmed reports from Yemen that the USAF carried out 5 airstrikes in the Harf Sufyan District.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas’ attempt to leverage more concessions from Israel failed and they withdrew their demands. Approval is working its way up through Israeli govt channels. Barring any further incident(s), Israel will likely have the final approvals set by Saturday and ready to receive the first hostages by Sunday or Monday.

The next big hurdle will be the actual release of the hostages. Some Hamas elements, as well as affiliated terror groups like PIJ and ‘civilians’ may be more resistant to the handover. Chances are that should Israel give final approval, the initial 4 hostages will be released. This becomes increasingly problematical over the course of the following weeks as Hamas has historically failed to withhold its end of bargains and fighting resumes. Hamas may not realize it, but should fighting resume, Trump has green lighted full and complete operational control to Israel to rub them out once and for all. Suspended equipment and munitions under biden will begin to flow into the country and Israel will no longer face the threat of an UN security council action.

Right now, Hamas is believing its own propaganda in that they some how have ‘won’ the fight. They have dangerously miscalculated.

Trump may sadly be forced to realize the moral of the Frog and the Scorpion fable. Hamas (the scorpion) will attack again in spite of all its placating words because that is their character and who they are.

Syria -

Fighting between US supported Kurds and Turkish supported militias continue in N Syria. The new syrian govt reluctant to interject itself into the fighting.

We are entering the danger zone for False Flags and serious violent attempts directed at Trump to prevent his swearing in. Keep you heads on a swivel

Globalism / Great Reset –

It’s that time of the year again. The quaint snow-covered Swiss town of Davos is welcoming global leaders for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum.
Nearly 3,000 leaders, including 60 heads of state and governments, from more than 130 countries are expected in the Swiss Alpine town. Among global leaders due to attend the meeting are German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, China’s Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, Argentina’s Javier Milei, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Bangladesh’s Muhammad Yunus.

Donald Trump will address the gathering virtually just days after his inauguration as US president on January 20.

Trump’s return to the White House is expected to dominate discussions in Davos. From threatening to impose tariffs on friends and foes alike to displaying expansionist ambitions toward Canada and Greenland, Trump has left investors, companies and governments guessing.

The 55th WEF annual meeting is convening under the theme “Collaboration for the Intelligent Age” — an age that’s witnessing rapid advancements in technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing.

https://www.dw.com/en/davos-2025-donald-trump-the-us-sized-elephant-at-wef/a-71301027?maca=en-rss-en-top-1022-rdf

OBSERVATION - Rise of popularism and Trump are key, but don’t miss the undercard - adapting AI and quantum computing to their advantage. Possibly the greatest threat to world freedom in that it has the capability to be wielded to force compliance via many avenues such as CBDC, ‘misinformation’ control, penetration of personal autonomy etc.

RELATED - WEF released the 2025 World’s top 10 greatest threats paper. In it they list in order of seriousness (highest to lowest)
- State based wars
- Extreme weather events
- Geoeconomic confrontation
- Misinformation and disinformation
- Societal polarization
- Economic downturn
- Critical change to Earth systems (climate change)
- Lack of economic opportunity or unemployment
- Erosion of human rights and/or civic freedoms
- Inequality

These ‘risks’ are further broken down in the report
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/01/global-risks-report-2025-bleak-predictions/

OBSERVATION - These areas are high probability discussion points for the upcoming Davos confab. Roughly, mis/disinformation and climate change related issues will be very much in the forefront again IMHO, as they can be seen driving other topics. However, the impacts of Trump and how to mitigate them will be up top as well.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 1, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

Still monitoring potential actions on Jan 20th.

***
The People’s March, which is organized by a coalition of groups including the Women’s March, will kick off at various locations in the city, including McPherson Square and ultimately converge on the Lincoln Memorial.
Organizers expect approximately 50,000 people to gather in Washington, D.C., on Saturday to protest President-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration.
The number is drastically smaller than the 500,000 people that protested Trump’s first inauguration in 2017

https://justthenews.com/government/local/50k-people-expected-protest-trump-inauguration-washington-weekend?utm_source=mux&utm_medium=social-media&utm_campaign=social-media-autopost

OBSERVATION - Loud, but otherwise tame, probably with an abundance of outrageous outfits.

***
Terror / hamas supporters have announced that on January, 20, they will riot in 70+ cities around the country. January 20th is also the second day of the ceasefire agreement.

OBSERVATION - Their numbers may likely be buoyed by their drinking of the propaganda that Hamas has won a great victory over Israel. Moderately high probability of some sort of violence, likely vandalism.

***
Deportations begin next week - see “Illegal Immigration” below on trigger spots for potential violence

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 2, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

President-elect Donald Trump may have survived two assassination attempts while on the campaign trail last year, but a majority of voters in a new Rasmussen Reports poll say they’re concerned he won’t be safe at his inauguration on Monday.

According to the survey, 55% of likely U.S. voters say they are worried about Trump’s safety at his swearing-in ceremony, including 31% who say they are very concerned.

Conversely, 41% say they are not concerned, including 26% who say they are not at all concerned about the incoming president’s safety.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/inauguration-poll-safety/2025/01/17/id/1195524/

OBSERVATION - Some consider the move of the swearing in to the rotunda of the Capitol and restricted actives in the Capitol Center sports complex a reflection of security issues as much as weather concerns.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Canadian naval vessel HMCS Ottawa successfully completed a joint exercise with U.S. Navy destroyer USS Higgins amid tension in the South China Sea, the Canadian Joint Operations Command said.

During the Jan. 8-11 drills, codenamed Noble Wolverine, both ships “navigated through the South China Sea’s international waters while conducting communications exercises, flight operations and anti-submarine warfare training,” the command announced on its feed on the X social media site on Sunday.

The Halifax-class frigate HMCS Ottawa also sailed near Scarborough Shoal, where the Chinese and Philippine coast guards have been engaged in a cat-and-mouse game for weeks.

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2025/01/us-canadian-warships-conduct-joint-drills-in-south-china-sea/#google_vignette

POLITICAL FRONT –

Trump -

“Therefore, I have ordered the Inauguration Address, in addition to prayers and other speeches, to be delivered in the United States Capitol Rotunda, as was used by Ronald Reagan in 1985, also because of very cold weather. The various Dignitaries and Guests will be brought into the Capitol. This will be a very beautiful experience for all, and especially for the large TV audience!”

“We will open Capital One Arena on Monday for LIVE viewing of this Historic event, and to host the Presidential Parade. I will join the crowd at Capital One, after my Swearing In.”

“All other events will remain the same, including the Victory Rally at Capital One Arena, on Sunday at 3 P.M. (Doors open at 1 P.M.—Please arrive early!), and all three Inaugural Balls on Monday evening.”

Biden / Harris Watch –

This category cannot be retired soon enough

Yesterday, Biden decreed, apparently by tweeting about it, that the Equal Rights Amendment has now passed -

“Today I’m affirming what I have long believed and what three-fourths of the states have ratified:

The 28th Amendment is the law of the land, guaranteeing all Americans equal rights and protections under the law regardless of their sex.”

Illegal Immigration –

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Trump administration is planning a large-scale immigration raid next week in Chicago, as part of his campaign promise of carrying out the mass deportation of criminal illegal immigrants across the country. Upwards of 200 agents with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement or ICE are expected to take part in the raid; which will likely involve other xities across the United States with a large population of illegals, including New York, Los Angeles, Denver, and Miami.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1880426846501609564?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Will this trigger violence by both the illegals and their leftist supporters?

***
Federal court rules DACA is illegal on eve of Trump administration - ABC

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30s with rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a missile and drone attack overnight/yesterday.

Shot down:
2/4 Iskander-M / KN-23 ballistic missiles
38/39 Shahed drones (24 shot down, 14 supressed by electronic warfare)

Two Iskander-M missiles were launched at Kyiv and another two at Zaporizhzhia, marking the third ballistic missile strike targeting civilians in the past 24 hours.

Consequences of the attack: In Kyiv: 4 dead, 3 injured. A water main burst at the strike site, windows shattered, cars ablaze, and damage reported at Lukyanivska metro station. In Zaporizhzhia: a missile hit the city center, partially destroying an administrative building, an industrial site, and a cathedral. 6 injured reported.

Russian losses per 18/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1340 men
+13 AFVs
+21 artillery systems
+69 utility vehicles

On the night of January 18, Ukrainian drones, hit the “8 Marta” depot in Tula Oblast, sparking a fire. This facility supplied Russian forces.
Additionally Ukrainian drones hit a “Nebo-SVU” radar in occupied Kherson region and targeted and hit Buk-M3 and S-300 systems in occupied Donetsk region.

The General Staff also announced that Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck a Rosneft fuel depot in Kaluga Oblast. On the night of January 18, SOF units, in coordination with other units, successfully hit the depot in Lyudinovo. The facility, part of “Kaluganefetprodukt,” serves as a logistics hub for Russian forces.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Vremivka and Petropavlivka villages of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Summary —

Standard ebb and flow on the ground.

Ukraine has stepped up its assaults on Russian petroleum storage and refining facilities. Its earlier campaign last year put a big dent in Russian supplies. The success so far has got to be hurting them, with many of these tank farms burning for days.

Belarus -

Military trenches spotted near the Belarus-Lithuania border, Svoboda reports. In the Grodno region of Belarus, infantry and vehicle trenches have appeared at the edge of the Hozha training ground, just 6 km from the border.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israeli government approved the deal to release the hostages.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The full Israeli cabinet approved the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal. 24 ministers voted in favor and 8 ministers voted against, an Israeli cabinet member told

***
The government’s hostages and missing persons coordination unit on Friday notified the families of the 33 Israeli hostages expected to be set free in the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal.

Those on the list, to be returned over a period of 42 days, are so-called “humanitarian” cases: women, children, elderly individuals and the infirm.

Notably, Israel has not been told how many of the 33 are alive, though it expects the majority are. Israel will receive a full status report on all those on the list seven days into the ceasefire. Some unconfirmed media reports have said Israel has insisted on first receiving the living among the 33, with bodies returned at the end.

The order of release is not yet known. The identities of those set to return are expected to be provided 24 hours before each release.

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-64/

Ceasefire is suppose to start tomorrow.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Hamas statement: We forced Israel to stop its aggression and withdraw despite Netanyahu’s attempts to prolong the war

Israeli army announces readiness to receive detainees in Gaza after their release

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

An Israeli force penetrates between the towns of Yaroun and Al-Dabash in the Bint Jbeil district in southern Lebanon

Lebanese President: Israel must withdraw from the south by January 26

Guterres: We will do our utmost to ensure the safe withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon on the date specified in the agreement

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The Israeli army says one ballistic missile launched at Israel from Yemen was successfully intercepted by air defenses. Sirens had sounded across central Israel and Jerusalem over fears of falling fragments following the interception.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Well, time will tell if Hamas is honest this time with its ceasefire / hostage exchange. Track record is that they will find a way to violate it within days. Typically, Hamas has used ceasefire to re-arm and reposition its forces. This time around is significantly different due to massive losses in both men and arms. Hamas claims it has recruited enough to maintain its previous strength levels, however, the quality of these hires and their willingness to go forward with glorious jihad is questionable.

The weakness shown by Israel in the Hamas deal is not lost on Lebanon who recently has been talking tough towards Israel in regards to pulling out of the country. They forget that they have the obligation to clean out Hezbollah at the same time - actions that are not happening on a significant level.

Houthi’s being houthis shooting another ballistic missile towards Israel. They forget they are not included in any peace deal and may likely be hit again pretty soon by Israel.

Misc of Note –

The Safeway Food Store in the Filmore District of San Francisco has been beset with shoplifters and other criminal activity for years. The company finally decided in December that it had enough and was closing the doors of the store for good.

George Gibbs, a long-time shopper at the store, acknowledges the problems. “I’ve seen people running out the door with stuff and running across the parking lot,” he said. “I’ve seen folks walk out in handcuffs for stealing something.”
Black Lives Matter activists are now demanding that the store stay open or that another low-cost food store take its place.

A member of BLM and the Fillmore United Alliance, Daniel Landry, said in a statement at a recent rally, “We’re not playing. We are demanding.”

https://pjmedia.com/rick-moran/2025/01/17/black-lives-matter-demands-grocery-store-remain-open-despite-losing-7000-a-day-to-theft-n4936075

OBSERVATION - IMHO this will be an even larger trend of closures going into 2025. Article indicates the store has been losing at least $7000 in merchandise per day!

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