Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Heads up again. Summer travels will have me not posting from 10-14 July
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
- New “no king” style protest for July 17th
Portland (July 5) — Federal authorities finally rushed inside the Antifa safehouse (Matisse building on S Lowell St.) after a violent suspect had fled into there during a pursuit. Chandler Jonathan Patey rents that apartment unit.
OBSERVATION - Location identified by Ngo weeks ago. Patey is a mainstay of the Portland Antifa group.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-90 range, mostly sunny.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
During the night of July 6–7, Russia launched 101 Shahed-type and other strike drones, along with 4 S-300/400 missiles from Kursk region. Ukrainian air defense neutralized 75 drones—58 shot down and 17 jammed.
Russian losses per 07/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1100 men
+3 tanks
+7 AFVs
+33 artillery
+2 MLRS
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Dachne village of Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine. Ukraine says they still hold most of the village.
North-Slobozhansky (Sumy) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Bezsalivka village of Sumy region of Ukraine
Summary —
A rather standard day in the war.
Russia made minor gains over the past few days, but nothing significant. Drones continue to vex Ukraine.
Startus of US supplied munitions is in flux and Ukraine may be forced to husband what they have until European support can increase.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu in DC to meet with Trump
- Negotiation between Israel and Hamas begin in Qatar
- Houthis sink a cargo vessel, fire missiles at Israel and Israel retaliates.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Hamxs welcomed the BRICS summit statement calling for a Gaza ceasefire, IDF withdrawal, and condemnation of humanitarian law violations.
The group urges BRICS and the world to pressure Israel to end the war and lift the Gaza blockade.
***
A senior officer in Hamas’s security forces has told the BBC the Palestinian armed group has lost about 80% of its control over the Gaza Strip and that armed clans are filling the void.
The lieutenant colonel said Hamas’s command and control system had collapsed due to months of Israeli strikes that have devastated the group’s political, military and security leadership.
The officer was wounded in the first week of the war, which began after the Hamas-led attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, and has since stepped away from his duties for health reasons.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gk79xlzwjo
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A merchant vessel came under attack in the Red Sea overnight , roughly 51 nautical miles west of Hodeidah, Yemen. Assailants used small arms and an RPG, striking the ship with unidentified projectiles and setting it ablaze.
The vessel is reportedly the “Magic Seas”, a Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier.
After the Iran backed Houthi attack, the bulk carrier “MAGIC SEAS”
began sinking, UKMTO confirms. Crew abandoned the ship and were successfully rescued by a passing cargo vessel.
***
The Israel Defense Force has now confirmed that two ballistic missiles were launched earlier tonight at Central Israel, in a rare multi-missile launch by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. Several attempts were made to intercept the missiles, with the results currently under review, though footage appears to show at least one impact somewhere in the vicinity of the West Bank.
***
IDF spokesperson in Arabic issued an evacuation warning for the Houthi ports of Ras Isa, Hudaydah, and Al-Salif, as well as the Hudaydah and Ras Al-Khatib power stations.
As part of Operation “Black Flag”, the IDF struck with force terror targets of the Houthi terror regime in the ports of Hodeidah, Al-Salif, and Ras Issa, the Ras Katib power station, and the ship “Galaxy Leader,” which was hijacked by the Houthis about two years ago and is currently used for terrorist activities in the Red Sea.
Israeli Air Force fighter jets dropped about 60 munitions on Houthi targets.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
BRICS leaders condemned the US-Israel strikes on Iran as violations of international law and called for Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza, along with immediate humanitarian access. They also criticized rising global arms spending and trade protectionism, urging UN reforms to strengthen the Global South and reduce Western influence.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel / Hamas talks face uncertain future. Much will depend on Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump as to how much Israel will be pushed to give up from the negotiations.
Serious escalation in the Red Sea as Houthis have apparently resumed attacking cargo vessels. The hard answer will be to completely rubble its sea side facilities capable of supporting these small vessel pirate style attacks. The US still has two carrier CSGs in the region that can respond. The overnight attacks will continue to force shipping to take the much longer and expensive route around the tip of Africa rather risk attack in the Red Sea.
Iran –
Threat Level - WATCH Jun 30, 2025
Any attempt to assassinate Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would trigger retaliatory attacks inside the United States..
Signed by:
Hassan Rahimpour Azghadi, a member of Iran’s Supreme Council
***
Iran is targeting minorities for perceived disloyalty, which will almost certainly reinforce pre-existing anti-regime sentiment and could spark more unrest over time.
Armed Iranian “intelligence agents” have conducted dozens of coordinated raids across Iran targeting Bahai religious minority members.
Bahai members have frequently been accused of espionage and anti-regime activities.
https://x.com/criticalthreats/status/1941948316784414726?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg
OVERALL OBSERVATION - Impending talks with the US remain on shaky grounds as it appears that Iran is betting that the US will not strike again in the short term, permitting it to rush thru efforts to put as many pieces together of its nuclear program as possible. This would transition to stalling any talks to permit further repairs to its capabilities. And the dance begins all over again.
Lebanon -
The US Embassy in Beirut has lifted the mandatory departure order for family members of employees and returned travel recommendations to what they were before the recent Iranian-Israeli escalation.
***
The Israeli Air Force, guided by Northern Command and Military Intelligence, has conducted strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in the Bekaa region and southern Lebanon.
***
The Lebanese President is currently meeting with the U.S. envoy, Tom Barrack, and the U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, Lisa Johnson
Syria -
For the second time in the past week, the IDF says it captured a cell of operatives operating on behalf of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, during an overnight raid in southern Syria. Reservists of the Alexandroni Brigade and field interrogators of the Military Intelligence Directorate’s Unit 504 operated overnight in the Kwdana area — close to the border and near an IDF post in southern Syria — to detain the cell, the military says.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Ukrainian Military Intelligence HUR has released a leaked Russian military order instructing urgent reinforcement of the Russian base in Gyumri, Armenia. Troops from the 8th, 18th, 49th, and 58th armies of the Southern Military District are to be reassigned, likely due to mounting regional threats and manpower shortages
OBSERVATION - Speculative on the accuracy, but very possible given Russian decrease in support to Armenia since the war with Ukraine started.
Thanks Godzilla.
Which is an excuse to attack the US, because there's no knowing who might be behind the assassination attempt. He has lots of enemies.
Heads up again. Summer travels will have me not posting from 10-14 July
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
- New “no king” style protest for July 17th
The “Summer of Love – the Sequel” is ratcheting up by the hour as leftists now appear to be encouraging Democrats to “get shot” for the resistance as they warn of “blood” and “violence” in the streets over their frustration with not being able to stop President Trump.
The claim doesn’t just come from rumors on social media. This report is from left-leaning Axios which evidently spoke to over 24 House Democrats to find out how upset their base is. According to the report, they are so angry they are ready to get their violence on.
From Axios:
“At town halls in their districts and in one-on-one meetings with constituents and activists, Democratic members of Congress are facing a growing thrum of demands to break the rules, fight dirty — and not be afraid to get hurt.”
“Why it matters: House Democrats told Axios they see a growing anger among their base that has, in some cases, morphed into a disregard for American institutions, political traditions, and even the rule of law.”
https://rairfoundation.com/dems-warn-blood-violence-trump-agenda-told-get/
***
(FO) A so-called antifascist blog published a map and photographs of Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Immigration & Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities in Chicago, Illinois.
The post includes photographs of the front of federal buildings, including:
Chicago Immigration Court
ICE Chicago Field Office
Immigration Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) Office
Metropolitan Correctional Center
Broadview Processing Center
Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) Field Office
The post encourages violent actions against these facilities and locations.
***’
The shooter who opened fire at a Border Patrol facility in McAllen, Texas has been identified as 27-year-old Ryan Louis Mosqueda.
Mosqueda was armed with an assault rifle and wearing a utility vest. Two officers and a Border Patrol employee were injured, including one who was shot in the knee.
The shooter was neutralized at the scene.
***
10 alleged members of a north Texas Antifa terror cell are accused of carrying out the attempted murder of federal officers at a shooting terrorist attack on an ICE facility on the Fourth of July in Alvarado, Texas.
One local police officer was shot in the neck, and survived. The group was armed with multiple rifles, pistols, body armor, escape vehicles, radios, and other devices indicating a planned conspiracy.
Multiple members of the cell are confirmed trans.
They’ve been charged federally with attempted murder and also face local charges of terrorism in Johnson County, Texas.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1942433612130865427?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - I’ve noted here on numerous occasions the increasing call by democrats - even those in senior leadership - for acts of violence against anything considered to be supported by Trump. These items today are but a growing number of overt actions being taken by leftists in response to these calls. Of very dangerous note - the responses are becoming increasingly lethal. The main focus currently is ICE and deportation operations. A main factor that is different from the Floyd riot period is that these are FEDERAL arrests, not revolving door local ones.
Of further note, it appears that these attempts at lethal assault are more adhoc than what has been reportedly planned by Antifa et al over the past years. Clearly the 11 arrested have virtually no planning other than to show up armed. Deeper Antifa/leftist organization has far better trained elements for lethal attacks. It is likely they are keeping their powder dry for really big incidents. For now, these attacks can serve as a rally point for leftist, especially if there are any successes or martyrs
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
At least 14 countries’ imports are set to face steep blanket tariffs starting Aug. 1, President Donald Trump revealed Monday.
Goods imported to the U.S. from Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan and Tunisia are now set to face 25% tariffs, according to the letters Trump posted.
South African and Bosnian goods will be subject to a 30% U.S. tariff, and imports from Indonesia will be hit with a 32% excise duty.
Bangladesh and Serbia are both at 35%, while Cambodia and Thailand are set for 36% tariff rates, the president’s letters said.
Imports from Laos and Myanmar will face a 40% duty, according to the letters Trump posted on Truth Social showed.
The letters Trump signed add that the U.S. will “perhaps” consider adjusting the new tariff levels, “depending on our relationship with your Country.”
The letters are the first to be sent before Wednesday, the day his so-called reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries were scheduled to snap back to the higher levels he had announced in early April.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/07/trump-tariffs-trade-letters-japan.html
OBSERVATION - The 90 day window is up and these countries haven’t gotten on board with trade agreements. This has caused trembling on the Dow. Some of these countries are reportedly close to an agreement and reinstatement of tariffs. This may put a little more urgency in their movement towards an agreement.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump’s meeting with Netanyahu went without problems apparently as all participants were apparently in good humor during an interview at a state dinner last night.
No earthshaking outcomes.
Illegal Immigration –
From The Hill newspaper, The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced Monday that it would rescind protections from deportation for Nicaragua and Honduras. The move ends temporary protected status (TPS) for citizens of those countries living in the U.S., which were both established after the same deadly hurricane and in place for more than 25 years. 25 years? You read that correctly.
***
U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) announced it will send 200 Marines to provide administrative support for ICE operations in Florida. NORTHCOM said 500 additional troops will be deployed in Louisiana and Texas to focus on administrative, clerical, and logistical tasks at ICE detention facilities.
***
Huge operation yesterday with hundreds of federal agents and military as a massive federal immigration enforcement operation in the MacArthur Park area of the sanctuary city of Los Angeles, an area with heavy MS-13 influence. Mayor Bass has demanded raids stop, Feds respond with one of the largest yet, including Border Patrol agents on horseback.
Mayor Bass even showed up in an attempt to stop the operation.
Marines provided protection of vehicles carrying detainees out of the area to holding areas.
OBSERVATION - The scale of this operation apparently caught LA sanctuary city authorities by surprise as well as Antifa related elements who were only able to show up essentially after the majority of the work was already done. Actions may stimulate more violent protests against the ICE facility, though they face NG and Marines with no sense of humor as well as federal charges putting them behind bars and not a revolving door.
China -
(FO) China opened up three additional flight paths heading out of mainland China and toward Taiwan to the flight path over the Strait. This will mask Chinese air force flights out of similar spots, making them considerably harder to identify without electronic intelligence.
OBSERVATON - Continued progression towards an eventual operation against Taiwan
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-90 range, mostly sunny.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Pentagon Statement: “At President Trump’s direction, the Department of Defense is sending additional defensive weapons to Ukraine to ensure the Ukrainians can defend themselves while we work to secure a lasting peace and ensure the killing stops. Our framework for POTUS to evaluate military shipments across the globe remains in effect and is integral to our America First defense priorities.”
***
ISW. Russian forces appear to be reprioritizing offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction over the Kostyantynivka direction after several weeks of unsuccessful activity aimed at advancing toward Kostyantynivka.
Last night, Russia launched 54 Shahed drones and decoy UAVs, along with 4 S-300/400 missiles from Kursk, Orel, and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian air defense shot down 34 drones, 26 with firepower, 8 suppressed by electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 08/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1070 men
+4 AFVs
+41 artillery
+2 MLRS
Summary —
No significant changes in status. Low numbers of drones overnight.
Analysis of a change in the focus of the ‘summer offensive’ indicates things are not going as planned for Russia.
Europe / NATO General –
Speaking recently to the New York Times at NATO Headquarters in Brussels, Secretary-General Mark Rutte gave an ominous warning about the potential of a future conflict with China and Russia: “There’s an increasing realization, and let’s not be naïve about this: If Xi Jinping would attack Taiwan, he would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, residing in Moscow, and telling him, “Hey, I’m going to do this, and I need you to to keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory.” That is most likely the way this will progress. And to deter them, we need to do two things. One is that NATO, collectively, being so strong that the Russians will never do this. And second, working together with the Indo-Pacific — something President Trump is very much promoting. Because we have this close interconnectedness, working together on defense industry, innovation between NATO and the Indo-Pacific.”
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1942434104428945521?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Talks ended between Netanyahu and Trump.
- Gaza talks failing.
- Houthis step up their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea region.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday he wanted peace with Palestinians but described any future independent state as a platform to destroy Israel. For that reason, he said, sovereign power of security must remain with Israel.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Yasser Abu Shabab, leader of the allegedly Israel-backed, anti-Hamas Popular Forces group, told Israeli media that “There is no stopping a civil war against Hamas.” The Popular Forces denies that it has Israeli backing but would work with the Israel Defense Forces to distribute aid in the future.
***
Gaza ceasefire talks end with “no breakthrough,” says source close to the negotiations — AFP
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
British maritime security firm Ambrey reports receiving information about an incident 49 nautical miles southwest of Hodeidah port in the Red Sea.
Two crew members are reportedly injured and two others are missing aboard a Liberia-flagged vessel located 49 nautical miles southwest of Hodeidah, Yemen, according to Ambrey.
In another attack, the UK Maritime Group reports a vessel was struck by five rockets, sustaining severe damage and losing power about 51 nautical miles west of Yemen’s Hodeidah.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Qatari Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: We are holding separate talks with Hamas and Israeli delegations to bridge the gap regarding the negotiating framework.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
No movement on a Gazan ceasefire and no apparent pressuring from Trump for Israel to accept one unilaterally. General reports of intense airstrikes across Gaza.
Houthi becoming a major shipping menace once again, after expending a lot of its efforts launching drones and missiles at Israel. Three ships in as many days have been hit, and there currently has been no response except for Israeli strikes in retaliation for the last missile attack. With two US CSG in the region, this would be an opportunity to inflict more pain on the Houthis.
Other action with Syria, Lebanon and Iran are at their current stable levels - with large scale action by Israel against perceived threats possible at any time.
Iran –
Threat Level - WATCH Jun 30, 2025
Iran’s Mehr: The US has requested, through mediators, to continue the nuclear negotiations after failing to halt Tehran’s nuclear capabilities. The Iranian Foreign Ministry is considering holding a new round of negotiations to lift sanctions and determine the level of enrichment
***
Rumint. Israel is bracing for potential military action if Iran attempts to restart its nuclear program, with Israeli officials believing President Trump may approve renewed Israeli strikes, according to Axios.
OBSERVATIONS - Iran continues to try to put forth a strong front in the face of its devastating loss from the 12 day war. Back to a posture of delaying any negotiation on its nuclear program.
Lebanon -
Israeli army: Hezbollah Radwan Force commander killed in airstrike on Deir Kifa, southern Lebanon
Syria -
The Trump administration revoked the terrorist designation for Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the militant group who overthrew President Bashar al’Assad and assumed control of the Syrian government.
The group was formed as Syria’s al-Qaeda branch. In an astounding turnaround, the group’s interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa went from a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head to the de facto leader of Syria who scored a meeting with President Donald Trump in June.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-ends-terrorist-designation-syrian-militant-leaders
OBSERVATION - IMHO this revocation is way too early. These and affiliated groups just this past spring wreaked havoc against minority elements in Syria. They should have had a longer prove-out period.
The whole 'king' thing didn't work... it was silly after the 'Hitler/Cult leader/Dictator pure evil crap. It's hard for democrats to get the riff raff riled up about a King and Queen concept. LOL
Commies and white liberal elites are running out of 'hate images'... white 'elites' are one trick ponies and don't know why their BS isn't working anymore... (we know why... and we're not telling)
Thanks Godzilla
Heads up again. Summer travels will have me not posting from 10-14 July
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
- New “no king” style protest for July 17th
DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin posted on social media that San Antonio City Council Candidate Matthew Gauna called for the killing of ICE agents in Los Angeles. “I wanna see a few dead ICE agents Los Angeles! Don’t let me down.” The post by Gauna was subsequently removed, but not before others on X grabbed screenshots of the threat calling for the assassination of ICE agents.
OBSERVATION - Calls for political violence often precede political violence.
***
(FO) Former U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and State Department employees are hosting recruitment and training sessions for current federal employees to resist the Trump administration from the inside.
DemocracyAID, a group founded by former USAID official Danielle Reiff, is hosting invite-only workshops with federal employees to train and coordinate resistance networks in federal agencies to engage in “noncooperation” tactics.
Some members of the informal network of former USAID and State Department employees are also distributing the CIA’s Simple Sabotage manual to political allies currently working in the federal government.
OBSERVATION - I am not surprised by this action - it was a given ever since the election of Trump. Crossing into dangerous ground, deliberately sabotaging govt actions.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
Pfizer and Moderna’s mRNA COVID shots must now include warnings that they cause ‘extremely high risk’ of heart inflammation and irreversible damage in males up to age 24.
The required safety updates apply to Comirnaty, the mRNA COVID shot manufactured by Pfizer Inc., and Spikevax, the mRNA COVID shot manufactured ModernaTX, Inc.
According to a press release, the FDA now requires each of those manufacturers to update the warning about the risks of myocarditis and pericarditis to include information about:
1 the estimated unadjusted incidence of myocarditis and/or pericarditis following administration of the 2023-2024 Formula of mRNA COVID-19 shots and
2 the results of a study that collected information on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (cardiac MRI) in people who developed myocarditis after receiving an mRNA COVID-19 injection.
OBSERVATION - The real issue is why this kill drug is still on the market to begin with.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The FBI has launched criminal probes into former CIA Director John Brennan and former FBI director James Comey, according to media reports citing unnamed sources.
The probes are looking into alleged wrongdoing related to past government investigations about claims of Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. elections in which President Donald Trump defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, according to information first reported Tuesday by Fox News Digital.
OBSERVATION - I certainly hope this doesn’t turn into another goat rope like the Epstein fiasco.
***
U.S. Supreme Court lifts order blocking Trump’s mass federal layoffs, allowing sweeping workforce cuts — Reuters
The Supreme Court says Trump is likely going to win his claim that he can fire his own employees as commander-in-chief, so they have stayed this activist judge’s order while the case goes to an appellate court.
https://notthebee.com/article/scotus-rules-that-trump-can-continue-mass-firings-of-bureaucrats
OBSERVATION - After the initial flood of national injections by DISTRICT judges, appeals hitting the USSC are consistently turning in favor of Trump. This is loosening the judicial collar these activist judges have attempted to place on Trump’s policies.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump will visit Texas on Friday to survey flood disaster sites in Kerr County, TX.
Illegal Immigration –
Leftists / democrats continue calls for increased violence against ICE (see CW2 above).
ICE sweep in LA has not generated riots like initial actions in the city. Expect increased attacks on ICE facilities though.
China -
The German Foreign Ministry has summoned the Chinese Ambassador and submitted a formal diplomatic protest following an “incident” recently in the Red Sea, in which the Chinese military fired a high-powered laser at an aircraft with the German Navy that was participating in E.U. Operation Aspides against the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen.
OBSERVATION - There is no justification for this action by China. Such action could easily have blinded the crew of the German aircraft.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-90 range, mostly sunny.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight Russia launched 728 Shahed-type drones, 7 Kh-101 cruise missiles and 6 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, - Ukrainian Air Forces.
Ukrainian interceptor drones and mobile fire teams took down dozens, with interception tech now being scaled up. Main target was the city of Lutsk in western Ukraine, though other areas were also targeted.
Shot down:
711/728 Shahed and other type drones
7/7 Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missiles
0/6 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
Russian losses per 09/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1050 men
+5 tanks
+2 AFVs
+68 artillery
+1 AD system
North-Slobozhansky (Sumy) -
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast amidst a series of ongoing counterattacks. Geolocated footage published on July 8 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern and northeastern Kindrativka (north of Sumy City).
After recapturing Andriivka, Russians are now pushed out of Novokostiantynivka (gray zone still), and Ukrainian forces have now moved into Kindrativka trying to secure this border town.
Summary —
Largest drone attack of the war. Ukraine did well against this attack, possibly due to the fact that most were sent into western Ukraine, providing more time to target and take them down. Some analysts suggest that Russia is building toward slavos of over 1000 drones in the near future. Last night’s attack follows the same pattern of several days of low numbers followed by a large attack.
On the ground, Russian efforts against Sumy are not going well as Ukraine counter attacks of late have shown success in recapturing territory. The Sumy front was believed to be a major supporting attack for the main Russian offensive regions further south. Not working out the way they wanted it.
There have also been rumors of very poor Russian morale in the Sumy sector and we may be seeing some of the results of that.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu meets with Trump and Vance, presumably on the Gaza war.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met for a second time with US President Donald Trump during a trip to Washington, DC, focusing on the issue of a ceasefire and hostage release deal. So far no release on any details from the meeting.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
IAF continues to pound Hamas positions across Gaza.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
The Israel Defense Forces and Shin Bet security agency launched a joint operation in the West Bank to thwart a impending terrorist attack, arresting five suspects, according to a statement.
One terrorist suspect from the village of Eliamon was apprehended for planning the attack, with four others in the village of Bir al-Basha taken in and six weapons in their possession were seized.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
So far no surprises from the Trump / Netanyahu meetings. Pressure is on Hamas to capitulate to current demands. Rumors from Witkoff suggest that differences have been reduced down to one point, no details. Witkoff has been a lousy negotiator in the ME so far and I don’t trust his judgement.
Hezbollah continues to get picked off as Lebanon fails to disarm and remove Hezbollah from the southern region.
Tensions remain high towards Iran, but there is nothing on the horizon to indicate any major actions. I expect Israel to continue sticking key military and nuclear leadership via drones. On the longer term, action depends on what Iran does to try to get a nuclear program back up and running.
Iran –
Threat Level - WATCH Jun 30, 2025
Carleson’s interview with the Iranian president was a fluff piece of propaganda for Iran.
Lebanon -
The IDF conducted multiple raids in southern Lebanon, destroying Hezbollah weapon depots and infrastructure. In Jabal Blat, the Baram Brigade uncovered and demolished a Hezbollah compound with weapons and firing positions. Near Labbouneh, Oded Brigade reservists found a rocket launcher, machine gun, explosives, and an underground arms site, all of which were destroyed.
JORDAN -
The Jordanian military shot down a suspected Houthi drone en route to Israel, saying it was intercepted within Jordanian airspace.
Misc of Note –
Another deadly flash flood has hit New Mexico. A couple of my observations
- In both TX and NM, weather service / NOAA recognized the severity of the rains and issued flash flood watches.
- Main point of failure appears to be inability to communicate those warnings and the severity of the event to citizens and local govts. Or perhaps better, for those to recognize the severity and begin to order evacuations and intensify warnings to get to high ground.
A lot of comments out of TX was that normalcy bias hit hard. Area commonly had flash flood watches / warnings and few though any thing of them, not recognizing the orders of magnitude size of this event. Thus, the system broke down at several key nodes.
In NM, NOAA / Nat’l weather service termed it “lethal flash flooding” in an effort to break the normalcy bias barrier and get people out of danger. Watching to see if it helped as news reports come in.
Thanks Godzilla
The feds need to clamp down on this good and hard.
And NO lenient sentences. That would just encourage more of the same kind of behavior.
He’s now under investigation.
He?
Or she?
Either way, it needs to be far more than that. Nevertheless I’m glad it
s being looked into. I’m sick of death threats against non-democrats being blown off and given a pass.
*I “misspoke” or *I was just joking* does NOT cut it.
Death threats are nothing but serious and there’s no excuse for them.
Jeffries had a photo taken of himself holding a baseball bat......and Maxine Waters is always shouting about getting violent.
When I saw videos of some of the flooding and how fast it happened, the first thing I thought of was how it reminded me of the tsunamis.
Missing you!
Back again. Much of todays post contains some general observations as too much time has elapsed for greater details. Another hinderance is that I’m operating at about 50% due to losing my dog to a multiyear fight with diabetes yesterday. Very rough day.
So with that, lets get the ball rolling
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
- New “no king” style protest for July 17th
The CEO of “Crowds on Demand” reportedly claims he was offered $20,000,000 to recruit demonstrators for the anti-Trump protests on Thursday.
OBSERVATION - Very little on the radar for tomorrow’s reported nationwide rallies against Trump scheduled for tomorrow. Scheduling on a work week day for starters causes a loss of turnout - except for the jobless left, many of whom would be there for money handouts, as previous protests. The fact that the left has to toss out such large sums of money for turnout is an indicator that there is little support.
***
WASHINGTON – On Thursday, July 10, U.S. Representative Salud Carbajal (D-Calif.) was among the mob of rioters who attacked federal immigration authorities as they executed a criminal search warrant at a marijuana facility. Rep. Carbajal doxed an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) employee, who was subsequently attacked by rioters and sent to the emergency room.
During the enforcement operation in Carpinteria, California, Rep. Carbajal spoke to an ICE Public Affairs Specialist, who gave the congressman his business card. The congressman then showed the ICE employee’s business card to the mob, making a target out of him. The employee was subsequently attacked, with lacerations to his left hand due to a rock being thrown at him. The employee had to go to the emergency room and get stitches for his injury.
“The actions by Representative Carbajal are downright un-American. He dares to claim that his actions were simply congressional oversight, but doxing ICE personnel and inciting a mob of rioters to attack law enforcement is NOT oversight—it’s abominable.” said Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin. “His actions sent an ICE employee to the emergency room. It’s no wonder that ICE agents are facing a 700% increase in assaults when radical members of Congress like Salud Carbajal and LaMonica McIver are openly encouraging and leading their supporters in assaulting law enforcement.”
RELATED -
Pro-illegal migrant activist groups are expanding their campaign against President Donald Trump’s deportation policies, and their efforts are helping to generate more violence and criminal actions.
One example of the activities by these networks of informants is centered on the parking lots of Home Depot and other big box hardware chains where day laborers often gather to wait for employers to troll by to hire them illegally.
In L.A., groups including Union del Barrio and Los Angeles Tenants Union are using volunteers to stake out these parking lots and when they see, or think they see, ICE officers drive in, they call their HQs and then yell over loudspeakers that ICE is coming, the Mercury News reported.
MORE -
(FO) Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem said the agency will prosecute individuals who publish the personal identifying information of ICE agents to the fullest extent of the law. DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said ICE agents are now facing a 700% increase in assaults.
DHS is investigating two Portland Antifa affiliated groups publishing the names, photos and home addresses of alleged ICE agents. Simultaneously, Antifa are calling for comrades to kill those federal agents, as they tried to do in the Texas ambush.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1943849713070965028?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATIONS - The incitement towards violence by democrat leaders and affiliated groups like Antifa towards ICE agents and families is only going to increase until these doxxers and political leaders see the inside of jail for incitement. There have already been serious incidents where firearms have been used against ICE / DHS agents. No one has been seriously hurt so far but the trend of violence suggests that we won’t be so lucky in the future.
The left calls for direct violence is also an indicator that they are losing the political battle and must now escalate their efforts towards lethal violence given they are losing in the political and public opinion arena.
***
The FBI is offering a $50,000 reward for any information leading to the arrest of the rioter who fired on ICE agents during the cannabis farm raid last Friday. The raid resulted in hundreds of illegal aliens arrested and four U.S. citizens arrested for assaulting or resisting officers. The Department of Homeland Security said 14 illegal alien minors were found during the raid.
OBSERVATION - Video from protestors posted on social media show a male firing a hand gun towards agents.
***
Texas Antifa gunman fugitive Benjamin Song has just been apprehended by the FBI in Dallas. He is accused of being part of the shooting ambush on the ICE facility in Alvarado, Texas by a North Texas Antifa cell
He likely had assistance from others, just like those who are alleged to have helped him escape from the shooting scene.
OBSERVATION - This is the first, large scale Antifa attempted ambush of govt agents to date. Recent details now revealed indicate the this Antifa team launched fireworks at the ICE facility to draw agents out. These agents were then fired upon by as many as three individuals using AR-15 style rifles. Two shooters were immediately apprehended while Song laid low and eventually escaped the initial search efforts. Speculation that the shooters skills were poor and that the weapons weren’t even sighted in as reasons for not injuries.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
Free Palestine Muslim took the lives of two churchgoers in Kentucky on Sunday.
The names of the victims are Beverly Gum, 72, and Christina Combs, 32. Kentucky church shooter is identified as Guy E. House, a “Free Palestine” radical leftist.
OBSERVATION - This has the appearance of another lone wolf attack. Of further note, this is also another attack on a church. Pastors must start taking church security seriously.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Inflation ticked slightly higher, but still at a very low level as some analysts are trying to connect the increase to tariffs. The low rate has increased pressure on the Fed to lower rates sooner, not later.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Pentagon to pull half of the 4,700 National Guard deployed to support ICE in Los Angeles, CA.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The democrats continue their internal war while at the same time putting forth no serious policy efforts. The visible democrat policy is to just oppose trump.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Kremlin officials dismissed US President Donald Trump’s demand that Russia agree to a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine within 50 days while promoting claims that Russia can withstand economic pressure and remains committed to achieving its war aims.
Personnel Issues –
ISW - Russia’s military grouping against Ukraine has grown to over 700,000 troops, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service. This marks an increase from May, when the figure stood at around 640,000.
Economic Impact –
President Trump announced that if Russian President Putin does not end the war in Ukraine in 50 days, 02 September, then the U.S. will issue “secondary tariffs” at 100%.
OBSERVATION - Russia at the present is very susceptible to further tariffs and other economic sanctions. Some of these secondary tariffs will hit Iran, China and N Korea.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-90 range, mostly sunny but with scattered thunderstorms..
Trump reportedly has encouraged Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia and the US is providing weapons with that capability.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Another large attack overnight.
Shot down:
343/400 Shahed (255) and other type drones
0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missile
1 missile and 57 UAVs were recorded hitting 12 locations. The Vinnytsia, Dnipro, Kharkiv and Odesa regions were under the main strikes. One of the targets was, in particular, the power infrastructure. The power supply should be restored in Kryvyi Rih during the day.
Russian losses per 16/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1170 men
+3 tanks
+2 AFVs
+49 artillery
+2 AD systems
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novokhatske village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Summary —
Pretty typical day on the ground and in the air.
What I found interesting is the Ukraine estimate that Russia has grown its troop levels by 60K since May. This indicates that Russia may be more successful in recruiting for its war efforts. This is on top of approximately 30K in losses each month. Other sources may include skimming forces from other military districts, bringing them to bare bones levels. Also noting increases in Chechen and N Korean force contributions.
These numbers also indicate why Russia has been able to sustain pressure across the front lines. But even with these additional forces, Russia struggles to execute any significant breakouts. Analysts note that where there have been some gains by Russia over the past year, creating salients into Ukraine, they have been unable to successfully coordinate efforts to exploit successes at a higher level.
On a higher, geopolitical level, Trump has issued a new ultimatum of 50 days, already being scoffed by Russian leaders. I don’t think they are reading trump correctly at this moment. Russia over the past month has launched the largest drone/missile attacks of the entire war, based in part to US reluctance to maintain munitions support. That has now changed with the move not only to surge defensive weapons (air defense) but deep strike weapons. When Trump gave Iran a 60 day window, on day 61 all heck broke loose. Trumps stick is the piling on of more significant sanctions that could serious impact Russia’s ability to supply the war effort (which is already struggling in may sectors). We’ll have to see.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO nations are reluctant to support a plan by the US to sell weapons/munitions to it and have them transfer them to Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Growing Israeli involvement in defense of Druze n S Syria.
- Hamas ceasefire talks essentially dead
- IAF strikes Hezbollah targets in S Lebanon
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Hamas: No progress in Doha talks
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
After a flurry of action, Houthis have become silent for the moment. Rumors over the weekend that their leadership ran for cover in anticipation US strikes.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
While out, Israel has continued to pound Gaza, eliminating more an more Hamas personnel and bases. No end to the fighting in the short term, and Hamas will find itself in a deeper and deeper hole.
Israel expected to continue striking Hezbollah targets throughout Lebanon since the govt and military are not dismantling them as per current ceasefire agreement.
Israel to maintain strike capabilities against Iran and Mossad/drone strikes against key regime personnel expected to continue.
Action in Syria (see below) expected to continue to heat up as islamic extremists have declared jihad against Druze in S Syria. Israel has pledged to protect the Druze from these Syrian radicals. IAF currently conducting selective targeting of these forces. Israel has the capability to employ ground forces to assist Druze.
Iran –
Threat Level - WATCH Jun 30, 2025
Iranian Parliament: Negotiations with the US should not resume before setting preconditions.
***
Reuters report - the US and Europe have agreed on particularly harsh sanctions on Iran if a nuclear agreement is not signed by the end of August
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz:
Germany, together with two other European countries (England and France), will submit a request to the UN Security Council next Tuesday, July 15, to activate the sanctions mechanism - Snapback against Iran, as a result of the 2015 nuclear agreement and against the background of Iran’s violations of the Council’s decisions.
After the request, Iran is expected to enter a 30-day warning period, at the end of which crippling sanctions will be imposed on Iran, which even its friends China and Russia will not be able to prevent with a veto (because the decision has already been made in the past and is now simply being implemented according to the agreement).
The sanctions will prevent Iran from selling oil almost completely because they include draconian sanctions on anyone who trades with Iran. Iran will find it difficult to transport oil and will find it difficult to trade with foreign countries.
These are sanctions that Iran is trying to avoid because they will lead to a rapid economic collapse.
OBSERVATIONS - One of the major elements that Iran has reportedly feared the most are the ‘snap back’ sanctions. As noted above, they have the potential to suck a huge amount of money out for the Iranian coffers, money necessary for them to attempt to rebuild their military capabilities following the 12 day war. As noted above, they could cause an economic collapse.
Refusal by Iran to enter negotiations without a pre negotiation “deal” is not helping them avoid snap back either.
Lebanon -
The IDF says its Air Force has launched strikes on Hezbollah’s Radwan Force targets in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. The strikes hit training camps and weapons warehouses used for preparing attacks on Israeli forces. The sites housed terrorists undergoing weapons training and operational drills.
Syria -
The Syrian Presidency: We will hold accountable any party responsible for violations in Sweida, and they will not go unpunished.
The state places top priority on protecting security and stability throughout the country.
We assure our people in Sweida that their rights will always be protected.
The Israeli Air Force confirmed:
“The air force recently attacked the entrance to the Syrian regime’s general staff headquarters near Damascus.”
Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah issued a direct threat against the Druze community in Suwayda, vowing to carry out killings and acts of torture similar to those previously committed against the Alawites
Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz announces that the IDF will continue to attack al-Shara’s forces in Syria:
“The Syrian regime must leave the Druze in Sweida alone and withdraw its forces.
As we have made clear and warned—Israel will not abandon the Druze in Syria and will enforce the disarmament policy we have decided upon.
The IDF will continue to attack regime forces until their withdrawal from the area—and will soon raise the level of responses against the regime if the message is not understood.”
As-Suwayda: Israeli drones carry out raids inside As-Suwayda city, and reports indicate that vehicles and members of the Ministry of Defense forces deployed in the city were hit.
Israel threatens to escalate its raids in the coming period if its message does not reach Damascus, and the Israeli Minister of Security demands that the Syrian government forces withdraw its forces from Sweida
OVER PAST FEW DAYS -
Islamic extremists coordinated a multi-front offensive by HTS, Lajat tribal proxies, and Damascus-aligned security forces against the Druze
Framed as “tribal,” but the structure, scale, and direction tell another story.
Syria: The Israeli Air Force is currently attacking gathering of Jihadists on their way to massacre the Druze as well as mobile rocket launchers they brought with them.
Israeli Air Force strikes targeted Syrian Army 54th Division convoys on the Damascus–Daraa highway, causing heavy casualties.
The units were heading to confront Druze forces in southern Syria.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Radical jihadist elements have been desirous to subjugate the Druze community in S Syria ever since the over throw of the Assad govt last year. The syrian govt has been talking out of both sides of their mouth on this. On the one hand, they are projecting an effort to facilitate a multicultural, religious nation. On the other, they are permitting radical jihadist elements to commit essentially genocide against their opponents.
This attack may well escalate in the near term. Will the Syria govt honestly step in and force the jihadists to stand down. I’ll be you this, what ever the govt works out will cause the Druze to be more under the central govt and less independent. Second, these jihadist elements will come back once again for more attacks, allowing the friendly Syrian govt to further its control of S Syria.
Before I read the rest of the report, condolences on the loss of your pup. I had one that also had diabetes. Never easy.
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