Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Enjoy your weekend off.
We appreciate the summary of updates, but please, enjoy the break. We’ll survive.
Enjoy your weekend off.
We appreciate the summary of updates, but please, enjoy the break. We’ll survive.
Just like Obama's Red lines.
Hump day - what’s going down
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Crude oil prices rose Tuesday night, following a report that Israel is gearing up for a possible strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
CNN, citing multiple U.S. officials, reported that the U.S. has obtained intelligence suggesting Israel is making preparations, including munitions movements and air exercises, for a potential airstrike on Iranian nuclear sites.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures for July
CLN25
+0.89%
briefly spiked 3.5% on Tuesday night, above $64 a barrel, before settling back to around $63 a barrel, up 1.6%. Brent crude for July
BRNN25
+0.83%
last topped $66 a barrel, up 1.5%.
***
GasBuddy, a fuel savings platform, said Tuesday that it forecasts the national average price of gasoline to be $3.08 per gallon on Memorial Day. That would make it the cheapest since 2021 in nominal terms. After adjusting for inflation, it would be the lowest since 2003.
This is not expected to be short-lived. Prices of gasoline are expected to average around $3.02 per gallon between Memorial Day and Labor Day, with prices falling below three dollars on some days.
That’s likely to bring cheer to the 69 percent of Americans who plan on taking a road trip this summer.
OBSERVATION - Seemingly contradictory news, remember it takes time for immediate crude prices to be reflected at the local gas pump. And a one day jump may not be seen at all.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Department of Defense has selected a design for President Donald Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense initiative, Trump announced on May 20.
“I’m pleased to announce that we have officially selected an architecture for this state-of-the-art system that will deploy next-generation technologies across the land, sea, and space, including space-based sensors and interceptors,” Trump told reporters at the White House.
“It should be fully operational before the end of my term. So we’ll have it done in about three years,” the president said.
Trump said the plan that the Department of Defense has selected should cost about $175 billion to complete.
The plan will meld new technologies with existing U.S. missile defense systems.
OBSERVATION - I remember how the world laughed at Reagan with his vision of a “Star Wars” missile defense system. That vision has carried forward to levels of success. Probably with the advance of AI for software targeting / tracking, systems designated under the Golden Dome could achieve some degree of operational readiness in the next three to four years.
***
Now confirmed that 6 F-15E “Strike Eagles” have been forward-deployed to Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean over the last week, in order to serve as a layer of defense for the 4 B-52H
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
The FDA announces it no longer recommends Covid shots for most Americans.
OBSERVATION - What took them so long?
POLITICAL FRONT –
A great deal of political fighting over Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” as it approaches final votes.
Illegal Immigration –
In spite of the judicial insurrection, deportations continue to press forward.
China -
China‘s advanced “drone carrier,” Jiu Tian, is set to launch its first mission by the end of June 2025, marking a bold step in extending the Chinese air force’s unmanned aerial combat capabilities. This high-altitude, jet-powered unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) will undergo a series of tests before deployment with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), fueling both excitement and skepticism within the global drone community, according to the SCMP.
the Jiu Tian—meaning “high sky”—features a 4,350-mile (7,000 km) range and can operate at 50,000 feet (15,000 meters). With a maximum takeoff weight of 16 tons and an 82-foot (25-meter) wingspan, it can carry up to 6 tons of payload, including loitering munitions and small drones like kamikaze UAVs. “The aircraft can release up to 100 units of loitering ammunition or small drones from both sides of its belly,” CCTV reported, emphasizing its swarm deployment potential.
The UAV also boasts a 36-hour endurance, enabling extended missions far from its base. Developed in just 18 months, with the fourth prototype completed by April 2025, the Jiu Tian reflects China’s rapid advancements in UAV technology. Its design allows it to fly above many medium-range defense systems, a strategic advantage in contested airspace.
Despite its capabilities, the Jiu Tian has drawn skepticism. Online critics, as noted in posts on X, have called it “big, slow, and not stealthy,” arguing it’s a “gigantic missile magnet” against advanced air defenses like the U.S. THAAD or Patriot PAC-3 systems, which can engage targets at or above 50,000 feet. One retired U.S. Air Force pilot remarked, “This is like trying to sneak into near-peer enemy airspace with a formation of KC-10s,” suggesting its survivability in contested regions like the Taiwan Strait is questionable without significant support from other PLA assets.
OBSERVATION - Big powers like China are working to adapt drone technology and tactics so adeptly demonstrated in Ukraine. Some developments may seem impressive, but until tested in combat, may be rather dubious instead.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 80s with scattered showers and thundershowers.
RUMINT -
Ukrainian forces report a buildup of Russian troops near the state border in the Kharkiv direction — a possible sign of preparations for new assault operations, says the chief of staff of the “Khartiya” unit.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Last night, Russia launched 76 Shahed & other drones from Kursk, Orel, and Bryansk. Ukraine’s air defenses shot down 63 — 22 destroyed by firepower, 41 jammed by EW systems.
Russian losses per 21/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+980 men
+1 tank
+2 AFVs
+23 artillery
Russian Territory –
Ukraine launched a drone strike on Russia last night—damaging a factory in Bolkhov (Oryol Oblast) producing electronics for the Russian army, incl. microchips, semiconductors & batteries. Russia claims 127 drones were downed across 6 regions.
Partisan Resistance ——
Partisan group ATESH—an underground resistance movement operating in occupied territories—has destroyed a Russian EW vehicle in Kherson’s Henichesk district.
Summary —
Another day of exceptionally low combat losses by Russia. With the RUMINT above, my concerns of a tactical pause by Russia to reposition forces for renewed attacks is becoming more likely.
Kharkiv along with Sumy are two likely locations for any concentrated offensive. The region has a much higher troop levels due to the Kursk fight that are becoming available now that virtually all the territory seized by Ukraine has been retaken. Both cities are desirable by Russia for capture, but success now vs 2022 is not good given the overall degradation of the Russian army in equipment and trained manpower and improvements in Ukraine defenses.
Russia may try to exploit their very limited penetration into Kharkiv oblast, but Ukraine defenses and counter attacks have made that salient a challenge for Russia to maintain.
Other potential targets include Zaporizhzhia and Odesa, though this would require significantly more redeployment movement and resupply challenges. And in the case of Odesa - a massive river crossing operation, the likes of which Russia has sucked at on lower levels.
Peace / ceasefire talks continue to be a clown circus.
Europe / NATO General –
Unusual movements by the British Royal Air Force were observed today in the direction of the Eastern Mediterranean, with 3-4 KC2 and KC3 “Voyager” aerial-refueling tankers, likely accompanied by an unknown number of fighter aircraft, arriving earlier today at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus from RAF Brize Norton in England.
OBSERVATION - Speculation ranges from force rotation to preparations for involvement in some level of action in the middle east.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level - ADVISORY, May 19, 2025
A blast hit a student bus near Khuzdar, Balochistan, killing four children and injuring several. The bus was headed to an army-run school with around 40 students, officials said.
Pakistan army blames “India proxies”
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Threats from various countries to cut off Israel due to Gaza operations.
- Propaganda from Hamas filtered thru media of massive split in US / Israeli cooperation on multiple issues.
- Israel increases Gaza presence and operational tempo.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
RUMINT - The U.S. has acquired new intelligence indicating that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. (Reuters)
American officials tell CNN: “ According to intelligence we have, Israel is preparing to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.”
OBSERVATION - I’m calling generally BS on this report. These ‘leaks’ also said Trump was going to declare a Palestinian state during his trip to Gulf nations - never happed did it.
***
And more BS
Speaking on BBC’s program, UN aid chief Tom Fletcher said yesterday, “There are 14,000 babies that will die in the next 48 hours unless we can reach them.” When asked how he arrived at that number, he referred to “strong teams on the ground” but gave no specific data.
The BBC later asked the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs to clarify. They explained that the figure comes from IPC projections, which estimate 14,100 cases of severe acute malnutrition in Gaza over an entire year, NOT within 48 hours.
Pressed again, UN spokesman Jens Laerke said some babies urgently need supplements because “their mothers are unable to feed themselves.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
The Israeli army is expanding the scope of the fighting forces in the Gaza Strip: Additional Israeli army brigades entered the Gaza Strip territory tonight - and joined the ground maneuvers as part of Operation “Gideon’s Chariots.” Among the regular brigades that entered combat tonight in various areas of the Gaza Strip are the Nahal, Golani and Kfir brigades.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army says it killed Hezbollah commander Hussein Nazih in a raid on Tyre
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
UK Foreign Minister David Lammy:
“Israel’s behavior must be stopped, and we tell it that further measures will be taken if it does not stop the Gaza war.”
The U.K. has suspended free trade talks with Israel while announcing new sanctions against settlers in the West Bank, due to Israel’s decision to impose a near three-month blockade on humanitarian aid as well as the recent launch of a military operation to completely occupy the Gaza Strip.
The Spanish Parliament has approved consideration of a proposal to ban arms trade with Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Global anti-Israeli propaganda hit pieces are becoming shrill in the face of Hamas being eliminated from Gaza. As seen since Oct 7, the propaganda machine that encompasses Iran and its proxies, inclusive of Hamas, has reached a fever pitch in an effort to stop Israel in this case from militarily defeating Hamas and wiping it from the Gaza map. A large part of this effort has been to depict a schism between Trump and Netanyahu on aspects of the conflict. A few weeks ago, it was the bogus “sources” claiming Trump was going to declare a Palestine state during his gulf visit (published in the JPost!!!). That turned out to be absolutely false.
Now these same ‘sources’ are claiming a developing rift over Israel and plans for an imminent attack on Iran as well as 14,000 Gazan babies to die in the next 48 hours ( a claim that the UN was forced to walk back). These “sources” claim that Trump is fed up with Israel and it needs to get it ‘wrapped up’. The outright lies from the media are flagrant and open folks. They are desperate for anything to gain traction to force Israel to slow/stop its final phase against Hamas.
The famine bleat is weak given the abundance of food controlled by Hamas, imagery of full food markets and restaurants in Gaza and fat Gazans. The US controlled food distribution in S Gaza is scheduled to begin May 24th. Famine is not real in Gaza folks.
Currently, Hamas has completely rejected the Witkoff outline for hostage releases and a ceasefire, a plan that Israel has agreed to. Israel has retained some elements in Doha in the event Hamas sees the light, but its main negotiation team has returned to Israel.
IDF continues to ramp up its operations. N Gaza has been ordered to evacuate to the south. En route, they will be screened several times by Israeli forces to ensure no arms or material is going with them as well as identify Hamas and affiliated fighters for detention.
Situation with Syria is stable.
IAF continues targeted drone strikes on Hezbollah leaders and personnel south of the Litani River, where Lebanese military forces have been required to act to remove them.
Apart from the rumors of an impending Israeli strike on Iran, a strike by both US and Israel is growing closer each day - see below.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region.
According to Reuters, Iran has rejected the U.S. proposal without offering any counterproposal.
Iran also reluctant to engage in another round of negotiations.
Iran faces a dead end if nuclear talks with the U.S. fail, officials told Reuters, with Supreme Leader Khamenei firmly rejecting demands to stop uranium enrichment. Four rounds of talks have stalled, largely due to Iran’s refusal to curb its missile program or ship out enriched uranium.
One senior official warned that without sanctions relief, Iran’s economy can’t recover, especially with blocked oil revenues and limited financial access. Despite closer ties with China and Russia, Iranian insiders admit their backing won’t be enough to offset the damage.
https://x.com/osint613/status/1925094874262405604?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - The sticking point - enrichment of uranium. Even a very small enrichment program retention by Iran will give it a toe hold to covertly process to the 90%+ level necessary for a weapon - just take longer. Further, Iran has a demonstrated track record of ignoring earlier agreement on the enrichment levels and quantities of uranium.
At this stage, Iran is calling the US hand believing that Trump has no backbone to follow thru on his military options. If Trump backs down, a much more dangerous situation will rise up as Israel will not sit idly by and watch Iran progress towards a bomb. Like Syria and Iraq, Israel is not afraid to single handedly attack threatening nuclear programs.
Given Iran’s domestic economic woes, an Israeli attack may not be limited to nuclear programs, but eliminating Iranian oil industry as well. Kharg Island - 90% of Iranian oil passes thru there - is a sitting duck. Absent US involvement, an Israeli / Iran conflict could see Iran implementing the oil blockade option, forcing US involvement.
What will the final straw be?
Misc of Note –
Ebb and flow of global events necessitates reevaluation of threats here at home. It’s the good ‘ol OODA loop at work again. So lets stop and think.
Currently on the top of my chart is potential war in the Persian Gulf. In addition to the involvement of US military forces, at home we can expect
- Cyber attacks on banking, infrastructure and others by Iranian actors
- Terror attacks by Iranian agents
- Rise in violent anti-Israel protests
- Shockwaves from an oil blockade of the Straits of Hormuz with resulting gasoline shortages
- Melt down of stock markers globally
Each of these will have varying local effects
Preparing for this scenario is multi faceted and one should already be well down the road. Food and other supples stockpiled. On hand cash reserve. Hyper situation awareness at venues that could serve as a terror attack event as well as urban violent protests in the usual Antifa strong areas for starters.
The other area of concern is the growing evidence that the left may finally be getting some events that can generate turnout as these protests. Recent charges on the congress critters who assaulted ICE agents in NJ is one area. Even bolder calls to assassinate Trump continue to resonate in the democrat left. Next mile marker for the evaluation of any growth in support will be the National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June. They have got to get something more than a bunch of gray haired boomers in the streets.
As always, temper you OODA loop evaluations with your local conditions. Effects I may or may not see here in the Redoubt may be different for you where you live.
This has been going on for years. There's been talk of it for a long time.
That said, the person who *leaked* the rumor needs to be held accountable and prosecuted.
Yesterday’s post was OBE, so today’s is a little larger in areas. No post tomorrow or Sunday.
Enjoy your Memorial Day weekend, hundreds of thousands die for your pleasure.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***
Smaller, lethal terrorism taking front stage as below.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
Two Israeli embassy staff are dead following a shooting outside of the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C.
The gunman, a 30 year old identified as Elias Rodriguez of Chicago, was taken into custody. While in custody, he shouted “Free, free Palestine!’
Police identified Elias Rodriguez as the suspect in the murder of 2 Israelis in DC. He screamed “Free Palestine” in custody. The DC shooter seems to be Elias Rodriguez from the Party for Socialism and Liberation.
OBSERVATIONS -
Commentary below pretty much says it all -
“Manhattan Institute associate Will Sussman precisely conveys my thoughts on last night’s anti-Semitic murders at the Jewish Museum in Washington:
This didn’t happen in a vacuum. It’s the inevitable result of more than a year of anti-Israel and antisemitic hatred that has been tolerated and even encouraged in our institutions. From college campuses to the halls of Congress, this hatred has been allowed to fester unchecked.
Tonight’s tragedy will be a wake-up call for many. But for those of us who have been watching closely, the alarm bells have been ringing since October 7. This is what it means to “globalize the intifada.””
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/05/on-last-nights-murders.php
***
A female driver has been SHOT after she attempted to ram the gates of the CIA HQ in McLean, VA, per police
This is the SECOND security incident at CIA HQ in the last couple of months.
FBI currently in the scene. Motive is unclear.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Violent, acts of murder are unfortunately trending upward. Sociopaths on social media like Redditt are cheering the latest assassination and attacks, crying in blood lust fashion for more. Not only has the latest murders been encouraged by anti-Israeli college based groups, but in a broader sense encouragement and incitement has been promptly loudly by democrats, most recently by disgraced former FBI chief Comey - who called for Trump to be 86’d. Other very vocal leftist democrat politicians have been calling for same. Meanwhile, the taliban caucus in congress has avoided commenting on the latest assassinations.
Elias Rodriguez is being shown to be a violent, radicalized leftist who chose to target this couple to “Free Palestine” Now his supporters are saying he is a political prisoner.
The past year has seen a dangerous increase in politically driven assassinations, beginning with two (three?) against Trump, murder of a health insurance CEO, among others to date. The leftists are cheering on for more.
So far these are ‘small’ incidents, involving one person (thought the Butler PA attempt on Trump strongly suggests a much larger conspiracy). Imagine the level of murder/killing that maybe unleashed should Antifa et al get their way and Floyd style riots break out again. Given the cover that a crowd can give, shooters could be far more prevalent than in 2020 where there were some incidents. Targets would be more select and specific.
Violence and murder is boiling in the marxist leftist realm and more attacks like this are VERY likely in the future.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Consideration of plans to redeploy forces from S Korea to other asian / western Pacific bases underway.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
A study of 2.3 million patients found mRNA COVID-19 vaccine recipients had a 30% higher risk of thyroid disorders (e.g., hypothyroidism) compared to unvaccinated individuals, with over 4,000 extra hypothyroidism cases observed. Those who received only one dose faced double the risk.
The study suggests mRNA vaccines may trigger autoimmune reactions, where the immune system attacks thyroid tissue, mirroring concerns seen with other conditions like myocarditis and hepatitis. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine (non-mRNA) showed no elevated thyroid risks, pointing to mRNA-specific effects.
https://thelibertydaily.com/new-study-links-mrna-vaccines-long-term-thyroid/
RELATED -
The Biden regime knew about the risks of myocarditis from the COVID-19 injections early on, but decided not to inform the public about the risks, according to a new Senate report released by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Wednesday.
OBSERVATIONS - More and more studies coming to light that show the mRNA ‘vaccine’ to have been more dangerous than the virus ever was.
RELATED -
Rogan: “I just sent Jamie this study. VAERS adjusted data, and other derived from the MIT, Florida Department of Health study findings that yield a conservative range of 470,000 to 600,000 American deaths from the Covid-19 mRNA shots.”
Rodgers: “That’s it?”
Rogan: “Well, just that alone. That’s a lot of people, man.”
Then came the jaw-dropper:
“More than World War I, World War II and Vietnam combined.”
And it gets worse:
“This is Pfizer alone, so this is not even Moderna.”
“Pfizer alone likely killed over 470,000 Americans.”
“They found a 36% increase in all cause mortality among Pfizer recipients versus Moderna.”
https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1925586840389595188?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
POLITICAL FRONT –
No loss of nasty political fighting to keep criminal illegals in country and activist judges interfering with clearly constitutionally defined functions of the Executive.
Right now democrats have little to gain traction with. Recent polls show substantial support for Trump’s agenda and their polls are in the sewer.
Recent rumblings is a effort to sabotage the budget bill and force a govt shutdown, since they had good press from previous shutdowns. I don’t think they realize that they are not holding a superior propaganda edge in the information warfare necessary to gain a ‘win’. Many Americans feel OK with a shutdown and see Trump’s efforts to improve govt and their lives being endangered by democrats who’s only policy is to be “anti-Trump”. They are bankrupt of counter ideas and proposals.
TRUMP Watch –
The meeting between US President Trump and South African President Ramaphosa turned out to be very interesting and very Trumpish.
As the topic of white genocide cam up, Ramaphosa was quick to dispel the ‘conspiracy’; but Trump very quickly told his aides to ‘roll the tape’ at which videos of black leaders in South Africa calling for the murder of whites (Boers) along with video of burial sites for whites killed in South Africa.
Ramaphosa, thoughtfully and quietly responded claiming that “this is not government policy,” adding that “our democracy allows for free expression” and reaffirmed that “our government is completely against” what President Trump was describing. Trump responded:
“You have hundreds of people, thousands of people trying to come into our country because they feel they’re going to be killed and their land is going to be confiscated, and you do have laws that were passed that give you the right to confiscate land.”
OBSERVATION - If foreign leaders haven’t figured it out, Trump will confront you to your face. The Prez of S Africa probably should have delayed or cancelled his visit since it occurred right when there was a great disturbance in the force as white S Africans were welcomed into the US to escape genocidal policies and actions.
China -
China says trade talks are progressing.
North/South Korea –
North Korea’s latest modern destroyer capsized while the shipyard launched it this morning. Korean leader Kim Jong Un described the failure as “absolute carelessness, irresponsibility and unscientific empiricism” and promised to punish those responsible. Kim gave the shipyard one month to repair and relaunch the vessel.
Phillipines –
China’s Coast Guard attacked a Philippines fisheries research vessel with water cannons and sideswiped the boat. China claims it took “control measures” due to an illegal presence at the Sandy Cay. The Philippines says its vessel was able to finish its mission despite the attack.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia is now fielding nuclear-tipped air-to-air missiles, per U.S. intel. Likely based on the R-37M, this Cold War-style weapon marks a rare and dangerous escalation in Moscow’s nuclear arsenal.
OBSERVATION
Interesting development, routine arming with these missiles. Designed as a weapon against perceived vast numbers of allied bombers in a Cold War scenario they are clearly obsolete in their function in modern warfare. One dangerous option would be that Russia may be considering modification to an air to ground role, like they have modified the use of S300 missiles from an ground to air to a ground to ground role.
As such, the R-37M could be a tactical nuke weapon against Ukraine and others.
Economic Impact –
G7 leaders -in a published statement- pledge to keep Russian assets frozen until the war ends and Moscow pays for the damage.They reaffirm support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and recovery, and warn of further sanctions if Russia rejects a ceasefire.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 80s with scattered showers and thundershowers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Couple days worth of stuff
Thurs - Ukraine’s air defense neutralized 112 Russian UAVs overnight, including 74 shot down and 38 jammed via electronic warfare. Russia launched 128 Shahed drones and decoys from multiple directions, along with one Iskander-M missile from Taganrog.
Russian losses per 22/05/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff
+870 men
+4 tanks
+5 AFVs
+32 artillery
23/5/25 Ukrainian air defense shot down 91 Shahed-type drones, 59 more were intercepted by electronic warfare means or crashed itself
Ukrainian drones struck deep into Russia overnight, with explosions reported in Moscow, the Moscow region, Tula, and Oryol.
Among the targets was the Bazalt defense plant — known for producing aerial bombs — which had already been hit in a previous UAV raid. In Tula, local authorities reported damage to industrial buildings.
Russian Ministry of Defense reported 105 drones were shot down overnight
2 explosions were reported in Odesa. Ballistic missile strikes
Russian losses per 23/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1050 men
+2 tanks
+1 AFV
+43 artillery
+2 MLRS
Summary —
These low casualty numbers continue to amaze me, not seeing such levels in over a year, at least. Same to with losses of tanks and other equipment. Russia just doesn’t appear to be pushing things very hard, and that is a warning that they may be trying to pool resources to resume a more concentrated offensive in other regions. Primary in that are the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. The goal is to capture enough territory to lay ‘claim’ to the whole oblast as Russian in any peace/ceasefire talks.
AFA said peace talks, Russia continues to consider the Ukraine govt as illegitimate.
Other commentary out of Moscow is indicating that Russia considers the breakup of the former Soviet Union to have been illegal / illegitimate, driving territorial claims over Belarus, Ukraine, the Baltic nations, etc.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Security at embassies world wide increased
- Netanyahu rebukes European demands to stop fighting.
- Hezbollah targets hit
- Houthi missile fires most rockets in 24 hour period in days.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Security will be boosted at Israeli embassies worldwide following the fatal shooting of two Israeli embassy staff members outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who instructed the increase of security at Israeli diplomatic missions worldwide, condemned the terrorist attack and stressed that it was a result of antisemitic and anti-Israel incitement.
***
The Israeli army on Wednesday fired shots at a delegation of regional, European and Western diplomats visiting the West Bank city of Jenin, sparking condemnations from the Palestinian Authority and several European capitals. An IDF statement said its troops fired “warning shots” and that the delegation “deviated from the approved route”. No one was injured in the incident.
NOTE - One doesn’t just wander around hazardous areas under military control unless trying to provoke an incident like this.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
The Israeli army issues a wide evacuation warning for the northern Gaza Strip, as part of its new offensive against Hamas. In a post on X, the Israeli army’s Arabic-language spokesman, Colonel Avichay Adraee, calls for Palestinians residing in Sheikh Zayed, Salatin, Beit Lahiya, Jabalia, and nearby towns to evacuate south. The IDF’s 162nd Division is currently operating in some of these areas with three maneuvering brigades - and therefore it is reasonable to assume that the evacuation indicates the expansion of the division’s ground operations in the area
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
After midnight, Israeli aircraft launched successive raids on areas south of Tyre, Wadi al-Aziziya, and Deir Antar in the Bint Jbeil district, one of which was described as the most violent
IDF Spokesperson:
The IDF recently attacked a military site containing rocket launchers and weapons in the Beqaa Valley with fighter jets. Hezbollah terrorist organization activity was detected at the site. In addition, terrorist infrastructure, rocket launchers, and missiles of the Hezbollah terrorist organization were attacked in the southern Lebanon area.
At least 4 additional attacks at this moment in southern Lebanon, intense explosions are heard in the Upper Galilee.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian Presidency: The President pointed out that Israeli interventions are affecting Syria, and the European Union must work to stop them.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
See provocative actions of European and Western diplomats visiting Jenin above.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Saudi Al-Hadath Channel: Massive explosion at Houthi weapons depot northeast of capital Sanaa. According to the report, dozens of people were killed and injured at the scene of the explosion in Yemen.
Yemeni government’s Minister of Information, Ammar al-Iryani, said that the explosion in Sanaa, which occurred earlier this evening near the airport, was caused by a failed missile launch by the Houthis.
In the last 24 hours, the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have launched at least three medium to long-range ballistic missiles at Central Israel, all of which have been intercepted by either the Israel Defense Force or U.S. Army.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Gaza operations continue to ramp up as more evacuation orders even and IDF increases its foot print. As expected, global anti-israel elements and govts are increasingly shrill in their demands Israel stop, while completely giving Hamas a mulligan for continuation of hostage holding.
Lebanon got a kick with Israel hitting ammo dumps and Hezbollah HQs.
The Houthis have apparently been able to reconstitute their ballistic missile forces to increase shots at Israel. It is highly likely that they are also reconstituting their anti-shipping armaments as well. Israel may soon pay another visit to Yemen. Only real way to completely stop this is from the ground. The month plus long US air attacks have severely degraded Houthi capabilities, but ones and twos of ballistic missiles can be hidden across the territory, very difficult to detect and take out. Hopefully the opposition forces are able to move in on them and put the Houthi’s out of power.
A lot of rumblings regarding Iran. IMHO, Israel is giving the US/Trump time to ‘negotiate’ a deal, who’s components match Israel’s strategic goals.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region.
New round of talks are on, but Iran is refusing to eliminated enrichment, and the US is refusing to allow any. This may be the last round of talks unless one side or the other compromises.
Again, US forces in the region are nearing a point of decreased readiness and will soon need forces to relieve them. Can’t keep the hammer cocked for too long.
Turkey –
Israel and Turkey have established a special communication line to prevent friction and military clashes in Syria. The two countries have been holding talks and meetings in Azerbaijan since April.
Democrat hate - a dark and evil form of hatred.
Your assessments, if aren’t, should be read at our nation’s highest levels. Thank You for posting.
My heart and soul stands with Israel. Do what is necessary for Your and world’s security, please Israel. God’s speed.
Memorial Day - Remember those who gave it all for us.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The Justice Department has formally requested the UN remove Francesca Albanese after revelations that she accepted thousands of dollars in gifts from pro-Hamxs organizations.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***
Yesterday was the ‘remembrance’ of Floyd’s death that triggered massive riots across much of urban America. Many of the below actions are related to that ‘remembrance’.
***
Antifa / Transtifa attacked a peaceful Christian rally this week at Cal Anderson Park. The rally, held by a group called Mayday USA, spoke on pro-life issues and against transgender hormones and surgeries for children.
Far left Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell warned against violence but also defended the mob. He called for an investigation into the permit process that allowed the Christian group to meet at Cal Anderson Park, as if Mayday USA was to blame
OBSERVATION - The CHAS park area is sacred to the unhinged left of the Seattle area. The swing to anti christian bias is not only confined to Seattle but has spread to state govt as well.
***
Officers had to form a skirmish line to clear a large mob that vandalized a Metro train, a police car and several businesses in downtown Los Angeles on Saturday night.
A Los Angeles Police Department spokesperson confirmed to KTLA that units were dispatched to the 1700 block of Trinity Avenue near Washington Boulevard for reports of a group that was trespassing in the area around 10 p.m.
“The group vandalized a Metro train on Washington Boulevard. They also vandalized some businesses in the area,” the spokesperson said.
***
“I’m giving you a mission for this Memorial Day holiday weekend. “
“I want you to talk to two people—friends, neighbors, cookout attendees—about why Trump’s proposed budget would be a disaster for American kids. “
“We owe the next generation every chance, and this isn’t it.”
https://x.com/HillaryClinton/status/1925927317425045816
OBSERVATION - Only followers of hitlerly can comment on her post. It continues to reflect an anti-american bend of radical leftist democrats. Disrupt a clear American remembrance of those who’ve fallen in battle so that she and her cronies can remain in power over the rest of us. What a vulgar individual (replaced words that would have gotten me banned).
We owe the next generation a chance to see this witch and her husband behind bars.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
American authorities arrested a man at JFK International Airport after he attempted to bomb the US Embassy office in Tel Aviv, NBC reported on Sunday.
Joseph Neumayer, a dual American-German citizen, was arrested after spitting on a security guard in front of the embassy on May 19. He was initially detained by guards, but managed to break free.
He left behind a backpack with three Molotov cocktails and was arrested in his hotel room in Tel Aviv. Israeli authorities deported him and returned him to the United States on Sunday.
NBC reported that he posted earlier on that day: “Join me as I burn down the embassy in Tel Aviv. Death to America, death to Americans, and f-— the west.” Neumayer could face up to 20 years in prison.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-855404#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - Radicalization of Americans against Israel in addition to America is on track. One only has to look at the tacit approval and encouragement of recent pro-hamas / anti-Israel ‘protests’ to see that the foundation has been laid for further acts of terror and violence. Could easily have targeted US locations. This makes the second anti-Israel / anti-US action of the week, with the assassination of two Israeli embassy workers.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
President Donald Trump announced Sunday that the United States will delay the implementation of a 50 percent tariff on European Union products to July 9 from June 1.
The decision was made after a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen earlier in the day.
“I received a call today from Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, requesting an extension on the June 1st deadline on the 50% Tariff with respect to Trade and the European Union,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
OBSERVATION - Keep these delays in the implementation of tariffs in consideration when the MSM publishes massive price increases, given that most of the tariffs are on a 90 day hold.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The liberal dream of circumventing the Electoral College might be crumbling faster than anyone expected. Maine, one of the 17 states that joined the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, is now poised to become the first state to exit the agreement—and it’s sending shockwaves through the left-wing coalition that thought they’d found a clever workaround to the Constitution.
Just last year, Maine opted to join the compact, which would award all participating states’ electoral votes to whoever wins the national popular vote.
But now the state is having serious second thoughts.
The Maine House passed a bipartisan bill on Tuesday to withdraw from the compact, and it’s headed to the state Senate.
But Trump’s decisive popular vote victory in 2024 changed everything. Had the compact been in effect with current members, Trump would have carried a whopping 520 electoral votes, instead of the 312 he actually won.
OBSERVATION - This was one effort to switch to a totally mob rule (democracy) and not the reasoned path established by the founding fathers and constitution (representative republic).
TRUMP Watch –
President Donald Trump expressed displeasure with Russia’s massive strike on Ukraine, telling reporters on Sunday he was “not happy” with the attack.
“I’m not happy with what Putin is doing,” Trump stated. “He’s killing a lot of people, and I don’t know what the hell happened to Putin.
“I’ve known him a long time, always gotten along with him, but he’s sending rockets into cities and killing people, and I don’t like it at all.”
Trump noted Putin was “shooting rockets into Kyiv and other cities” during negotiations.
“I don’t like what Putin is doing. Not even a little bit,” Trump stressed. “He’s killing people. And something happened to this guy.”
https://thelibertydaily.com/president-trump-rebukes-vladimir-putin-escalating-war-instead/
OBSERVATION - More commentary under Ukraine below.
At this stage, Trumps words about putin/Russia are ringing hollow. They do nothing except to encourage putin to do more.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 80s mostly clear with scattered thunderstorms.
RUMINT –
The Kremlin as well as Russian state media are alleging a huge, potentially conflict-altering incident which will surely escalate the war in Ukraine – an attempted attack on Russian President Vladimir Putin himself. A high-ranking Russian military commander on Sunday described that last week, as Putin traveled to the Kursk region for the first time since is liberation after 6+ months of Ukrainian occupation, Ukraine tried to attack Putin’s helicopter mid-flight, sending a wave of drones to swarm the flight path of the chopper. … given the world is just hearing about what’s tantamount to an ‘assassination attempt’ on one of the world’s most powerful leaders being alleged – and coming belatedly a number of days after the incident in question
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
(ISW). Russian forces conducted the largest combined drone and missile strike of the war against Ukraine on the night of May 24 to 25. More
- Ukrainian sources noted on May 25 that Russian forces are increasingly launching missiles from occupied Crimea after using missiles less frequently over the last five months.
- The May 24 to 25 overnight combined strike indicates that Russia may be stockpiling cruise missiles in order to conduct large-scale combined strikes against multiple areas of Ukraine at will.
- Russia may also be using highly varied strike packages in order to confuse Ukrainian forces and prevent Ukrainian forces from conducting consistently effective air defense.
Russia is overwhelming Ukraine’s air defenses with massive drone & missile attacks. On May 25, nearly 300 drones and 69 missiles targeted Ukrainian cities—a new record.
Russia launched waves of strikes across Ukraine, hitting Kyiv, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Sumy. Multiple civilians injured, homes and infrastructure damaged, and fires reported.
Overnight, Ukrainian air defense shot down 9 of 9 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 253 of 355 Shahed-type drones, 55 other drones were downed by electronic warfare means or crashed itself
Russian losses per 26/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1000 men
+4 tanks
+8 AFVs
+51 artillery
+1 MLRS
+2 AD systems
Overnight, Ukrainian attack drones struck Russia’s Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant, a major production facility in the city of Kineshma.
Sumy -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Bilovody and Volodymyrivka villages of Sumy region
Summary —
Massive Russian drone/missile attacks on Kyiv and many other regions over the weekend. Observers note these have been the largest since the start of the war in 2022. Analysts also note a greater reliance on drones versus cruise missiles, potentially reflecting either a holding back of the resource and abundance of Shaheds that have been modified and tactically deployed with greater effectiveness. Others link the ongoing assault to the alleged attempt on Putin earlier last week.
Clearly, the Russians are dropping a lot of ordinance on predominantly civilian targets, though reports in the central and western portions of Ukraine indicate military targets. The goal is to demoralize the population and to solidify Russian claims on Ukraine.
Ukraine for its part has launched large drone attacks across Russia as well over the weekend. One wave targeted the Moscow area and prompted a lot of Russian military passenger jets to evacuate from one airport.
Action on the ground still indicates fighting at lowered levels continues. However, I grow suspicious of such low numbers with reports of more activity in some regions. Recent gains in the Sumy sector suggests some effort may be increasing there, but too early with the information I have to tell more.
Developing action in the Kostyantynivka area, still monitoring for additional information. Kostyantynivka is located about 15 km west southwest of Chasiv Yar.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level warnings have been removed as conditions appear to have returned to pre-combat and pre terror incident levels. May 25, 2025
It’s nearly three weeks since the May 6-7 air battle between India and Pakistan, involving nearly 120 fighter aircraft battling for air superiority, and we still do not know exactly how many aircraft were shot down on both sides.
However, a slew of recent media reports has made it clear that the losses, on both sides, were much worse than previously reported.
After speaking with multiple highly placed sources and former defense officials, the sense that is emerging is that the combined fighter jet losses on both sides could be as high as 8-10 military aircraft.
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/biggest-air-battle-between-india-pak-was-much-worse/#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - Imminent prospect of war is gone, and conditions returning to ‘normal’ status between the countries. Link above is interesting analysis and speculation on one aspect of the conflict.
Note that the analysis is primarily based on the technology of the various aircraft, and not pilot training or tactics, both critical elements of modern air warfare.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Action in Gaza continues to increase as ground operations pick up tempo.
- Rumored movement on hostage releases, though most appear to be Hamas efforts to pressure Israel to stop the offensive and are not serious about releasing hostages.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The Jerusalem Post on Sunday reported that the U.S. Trump administration has asked the Israeli government to delay a planned major Gaza ground operation against Hamas due to ongoing hostage deal negotiations. Two unnamed sources familiar with the issue reportedly told the news outlet that the U.S. government seeks to exhaust all diplomatic efforts to release more hostages ahead of the major IDF operation.
SPECIAL NOTE - this is the same JPost who’s leftist bias claimed weeks ago that Trump was going to declare a Palestinian state when visiting Gulf region nations. Strongly suspect this is part of an ongoing psycological/propaganda effort of globalists to try to split the US and Israel.
***
Israel celebrated Jerusalem Day, marking 58 years since the June 1967 reunification of the holy city and liberation of Judea and Samaria. Jerusalem Day celebrations are scheduled to continue throughout the day on Monday with a festive morning prayer at the Western Wall and a special broadcast for elementary-school students, followed by the iconic Flag March with tens of thousands of participants expected to join.
***
The Israeli government is expected today to approve the mobilization of up to 450,000 reserve soldiers until August 31, 2025. This is the largest mobilization ever, even larger than the beginning of the war on October 7, 2023.
***
IDF forces from Divisions 98 and 36 have begun maneuvering in the Khan Yunis area, aiming to destroy the terrorist stronghold in Rafah.
The operation is expected to take several weeks.
***
Overnight Sunday, the IDF and ISA hit a command center in a former school in Gaza City, targeting senior Hamxs and Islamic Jihad operatives.
***
The IDF reports that three rockets were launched from southern Gaza.
Two fell inside Gaza, while air defenses intercepted the third before it crossed into Israel.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Israeli army: We will take control of 75% of the Gaza Strip within two months
The Israeli army issues evacuation orders to Palestinians from Khan Yunis to the Al-Mawasi area.
Reports in Gaza of Israeli ground forces advancing east of Deir al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip, coinciding with intense artillery and airstrikes
According to the IDF, Hamxs currently holds only a few hundred (thousand?) short-range rockets and mortars, and several hundred long-range rockets capable of reaching deeper into Israel.
IDF attacked over 200 terrorist targets in Gaza within 48 hours — including terrorists, weapons depots, terrorist infrastructure, and Hamas military structures in the south and north of the Strip.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah party secures victories in nearly all local elections across southern Lebanon. They apparently haven’t learned anything.
***
Jihadists in Lebanon have announced the formation of the “Ahmed Al-Assir Brigade,” issuing threats against the U.S. Embassy, Alawites, Jews, Druze, and Christians.
OBSERVATION - Evidence that much of Hezbollah’s combat ability has been degraded as other, competing jihadi elements setting up shop.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
120 Grad rockets were seized by the new Syrian government in the border area with Lebanon in the Homs province, just before they were smuggled to Hezbollah. The shipment also included heavy machine guns.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
While I was out, Houthis fired a few ballistic missiles at Israel, all were intercepted.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Some European nations continue to demand Israel stop its current operations in Gaza and resume full, uncontrolled delivery of food and other aid. Threats to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state are still at the forefront happening next month, along with other economic sanctions.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
As Israel continues to up the tempo in Gaza, Hamas and its propaganda mouthpieces in Europe and liberal presses are ramping up their misinformation efforts to try to force a pause in fighting because of ‘humanitarian’ aid issues. Never do they address the fact that Hamas seizes most of the food and supplies that enter Gaza, and sells them back in order to keep paying its fighters.
Hamas resistance is reportedly limited, most being associated with IEDs. Direct man on man encounters are generally on a small scale and taken out hard by IDF and airstrike firepower.
The size of the operation is staggering - virtually all of Israel’s standing army is in or moving into Gaza, with nearly a half million more being called up. This is creating a juggernaut to methodically erase Hamas from Gaza.
Lebanon sees more Hezbollah elements being taken out with precision, drone launched missiles.
Syria remains calm
Iran is still front burner material.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region.
President Donald Trump on Sunday indicated there was progress with Iran on its nuclear program and hinted that an announcement could come in the “next two days.”
He was notably more upbeat than the Omani mediator of the talks between the United States and Iran, who said Friday that the two nations made “some but not conclusive” progress in the fifth round of negotiations in Rome.
“We’ve had some very, very good talks with Iran,” Trump told reporters in northern New Jersey after leaving his golf club, where he spent most of the weekend. “And I don’t know if I’ll be telling you anything good or bad over the next two days, but I have a feeling I might be telling you something good.”
OBSERVATION - Trump tends to be overly optimistic in some of his analysis and statements. The talks over the weekend gained no real ground as neither side willing to budge on the issue of uranium enrichment and the extent of the cessation of Iran’s move towards nuclear weapons. Trump is allowing delays to now enter a zone of impacting US readiness to strike and giving Iran to relocate critical equipment and resources to make it harder to take things out without a much longer period of operations.
Israel’s reported preparations and planning for an Iranian strike likely reflect that the end of negotiations is coming fast. Next round of negotiation is still questionable, but possible.
Odd..
Thanks Godzilla
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***
Trantifa is planning another attack on Christians in Seattle TODAY at a
townhall meeting.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1927259028603703620?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Emboldened by the Seattle mayors over support of their attack on a Christian concert / event over the weekend, the Antifa / Transtifa elements are seeing results to terrorize the public thru violent actions and seeing Seattle police being hand tied like in 2020, giving them free reign to do what they want.
KEY NOTE - The town hall even is scheduled for 2PM, the Transtifa protest to start at 4 PM - Appears the main tactic is to harass and assault attendees to the Town hall on their way back to their cars / transportation where it will be difficult for police to protect citizens. This has been a well established tactic by the left since 2016.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
Unity of Fields Declares Itself a Militant U.S. Terror Group for Palestine, Targeting ‘US-NATO-Zionist Axis’
“WE ARE TRANSITIONING PALESTINE ACTION U.S. INTO WHAT IT HAS BECOME THROUGH NECESSITY: A MILITANT FRONT AGAINST THE US-NATO-ZIONIST AXIS OF IMPERIALISM”
https://x.com/osint613/status/1927279527014584700?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Unity of Fields, formerly known as Palestine Action US, is an American Palestinian solidarity organization. It began as the United States branch of Palestine Action, a pro-Palestinian protest network targeting Israeli weapons manufacturers in the United Kingdom. Its earliest known activities began in February 2023, and it began protests in October following the outbreak of the Gaza war. Similar to Palestine Action, the group led a global campaign against Israel-based defense electronics company Elbit Systems.
In 2024, the group changed its name to Unity of Fields and announced that it would change its focus to actively spreading “militant propaganda” against the United States. It was subsequently suspended from social media platforms.
Recently, the group was involved in the violent protest at the University of Washington on May 5 and the Columbia University library. They are now praising alleged DC Jewish Museum shooter Elias Rodriguez’s heinous crime as an act of “love.”
OBSERVATION - This group is rising into a leading element in violence going into this summer. Action wing of radical islam linked eventually to Iran and via its proxy Hamas it is seeking to ‘globalize the intifada’ With Hama currently losing the fight in Gaza, I expect more violent actions by adherents of this group.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S Navy aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN-68) and destroyer USS Curtis Wilbur (DDG-54) wrapped up a port visit to Port Klang, Malaysia and are now headed back into the South China Sea.
In Japan, aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN-73) departed Yokosuka on Sunday for sea trials prior to deployment.
China -
The People’s Liberation Army Navy Liaoning Carrier Strike Group is operating 124 miles north of the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea as of Sunday according to the Japan Joint Staff Office.
Aircraft carrier CNS Liaoning (16), destroyers CNS Qiqihar (121) and CNS Tangshan (122) and frigates CNS Binzhou (515) and CNS Anyang (599) were sighted sailing in an area 124 miles north of the island of Kuba Jima, part of the disputed Senkaku Islands group administered by Japan but claimed by China and Taiwan, Japanese officials said. Liaoning was seen launching fighters.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 80s mostly clear with scattered thunderstorms.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine shot down 43 drones overnight (May 26–27). Russia launched 60 Shahed drones & decoys from Millerovo, Orel, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, and occupied Crimea. In total, 35 drones were destroyed by fire, 8 suppressed by EW.
Russian losses over the past 24 hours per 27/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+990 men
+2 tanks
+1 AFV
+17 artillery
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Stara Mykolaivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
(ISW) Russia is reportedly redeploying forces away from Chasiv Yar, suggesting that the Russian military command may intend to delay its offensive operation against Kostyantynivka and supports ISW’s ongoing assessment that Russia does not currently have sufficient operational reserves to intensify offensive operations in several different directions simultaneously.
Summary —
Drone / missile actions down dramatically overnight from what pummeled Ukraine over the weekend. Reported Russian losses continue to be down, however, Russia appears to be taking ground (albeit in small chunks). There may be some ‘adjusting’ of these estimates by Ukraine and likely were over stating Russia losses. However, other analysts suggest that these and past numbers are pretty close.
If the numbers now and in the past have been close, the significant decrease in activity may well represent, as I’ve said before, a tactical “pause” in fighting to permit redistributing of forces and reoriented towards new objectives.
Going back to the drone wars, Europe (and the US!) have lifted restrictions on using their weapon systems for deep strikes against Russia. The change in policy may well have been accelerated by the weekend’s drone/missile blitz of Ukraine. As this gets implemented by Ukraine, it will force logistics and higher HQs to deploy farther back from the front, making it harder to supply and control operations. It also opens up more strategic targets to Ukraine with weapons systems far harder to hit than the drones presently being used.
Add into the mix the delivery of German Tarus cruise missiles. The Taurus is optimized to neutralize heavily fortified and high-value targets , evading sophisticated air defenses, while ensuring high survivability for the aircraft and crew deploying it.
For the US, this means ATACMS can go far deeper.
Unleashing the range restrictions is one of Russia’s red line issues and putin has warned about responding to NATO countries if used.
We could see continued escalation of the drone/missile wars in the coming months.
Europe / NATO General –
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced today that Germany, France, the U.K, and the U.S have all lifted range-restrictions initially imposed on Ukraine for strikes against targets in Russia, backing long-range missile and drone strikes against military sites and positions in Western Russia.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas claims to have accepted the Witkoff proposal, Israel and Witkoff both disagree.
- Israeli operations in Gaza continue at an intense pace
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Reuters: Hamas agrees with Witkoff’s proposal “which emphasizes the permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip,” meaning the end of the war.
The problem: There is no proposal from Witkoff that talks about ending the war. Bottom line: Another spin.
Contrary to the outline, Hamas announces that it will release 10 hostages in 2 phases (5 in each phase), and will not disarm.
Israeli official:
This is the offer from this morning that Israel has already rejected.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff rejects Hamas’ claim that the group has agreed to his proposal for a hostage and ceasefire deal and tells: “What I have seen from Hamas is disappointing and completely unacceptable”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) said it has begun distributing food aid in the Gaza Strip, with additional aid trucks scheduled to arrive on Tuesday.
In a statement, the foundation also condemned threats from Hamas targeting humanitarian organizations supporting aid distribution at GHF’s Safe Distribution Sites. It further accused the terror group of trying to prevent Palestinians from accessing humanitarian supplies at the designated locations.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/2025-05-27/live-updates-855563
Hamas is calling on Gaza residents not to accept food from the new Israeli aid mechanism that began operating today.
Hamas’s Interior Ministry warns Gaza residents against cooperating with the new Israeli food distribution mechanism, claiming its purpose is “the occupation’s takeover of aid distribution in the Strip.”
***
Palestinian sources are reporting that a new force of militants has taken over food trucks in the Rafah area in recent days. The militia is led by a Palestinian named Yasser Abu Shabab, who was previously in Hamas prisons. The terrorist organization accuses him of collaborating with Israel and the US within the framework of the humanitarian aid program.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Palestinian channels are reporting that large numbers of IDF forces are currently raiding a multiple money exchange points in the following cities:
Nablus
Jenin
Qalqilya
Al Bireh
Tulkarm
Hebron
Tubas
Looks like a large-scale, organized operation to thwart the use of terrorist funds.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
During the night two launches from Yemen towards Israel were detected. The ballistic missiles were successfully intercepted by the IDF air defense systems in both times. One of the missiles was heading to the Palestinian held territories in Israel. No missile alerts were sounded for that missile.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas, in a desperate PR move, claims to now accept the Witkoff proposal. Only problem they redefined the terms of the proposal to meet their demands and are using the term “Witkoff” as a cover for its propaganda play. In rejecting the Hamas acceptance of their version of Witkoff, their allies in the global press can now make Israel into the bad guys once again. Witkoff and Israel’s forceful denial of Hamas claims and their offer indicate nothing is going to change in the near future.
Also, on PR realms, Hamas is not forbidding Gazans from receiving food and aid coming into the strip. Now Hamas is the one promoting the infamous Gaza famine and crisis.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region.
Lull in nuclear treaty activity, pending final acknowledgment of another round of talks this weekend. No new ground has been turned and Iran and US are still far apart on critical issues to both sides.
Notable development - The USS Geo Washington has departed port in Japan for sea trials pending deployment. The Washington could easily replace the Nimitz in the S China sea region, permitting it to deploy to CENTCOM. Should it do so, such deployment could indicate the final decision to strike Iran has been made. Conditions are ripe for a swap out.
Prayer needed for the following........
********************************************************************
Trantifa is planning another attack on Christians in Seattle TODAY at a
townhall meeting.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1927259028603703620?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Emboldened by the Seattle mayors over support of their attack on a Christian concert / event over the weekend, the Antifa / Transtifa elements are seeing results to terrorize the public thru violent actions and seeing Seattle police being hand tied like in 2020, giving them free reign to do what they want.
KEY NOTE - The town hall even is scheduled for 2PM, the Transtifa protest to start at 4 PM - Appears the main tactic is to harass and assault attendees to the Town hall on their way back to their cars / transportation where it will be difficult for police to protect citizens. This has been a well established tactic by the left since 2016.
I'm amazed Hamas is relevant to anyone.. what a stupid vile organization.
Thanks Godzilla
The response normally should be that of believes pro-actively evangelizing the protesters, without letting oneself be provoked by them, but allow their nature be exposed by their response, which may convict some of them that they are the hypocrites. Meaning, pray for fearless outreach.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***
FOLLOW UP -
Dan Bongino of the FBI announced on Tuesday that the agency has opened an investigation into “allegations of targetd violence against religious groups at the Seattle concert.” This follows an incident on Sunday in which Mayday USA, a Christian group, held a permitted concert in Cal Anderson Park which drew Antifa counter-protesters who then attacked the Christians.
Following the attack, Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell condemned the Christian group who was attacked, claiming that they were “far-right” and had no business holding an event in the park due to its proximity to the locus of the LGBTQ+ community. 23 arrests were made among the militants who showed up to harass the Christian event.
RELATED
Seattle City Hall was flooded with Christians for yesterday’s rally. Despite the political violence from Antifa and trans activists, as well as a condemnation from Mayor Harrell — the group of Christians say they will not be stopped from worshipping in the city.
SeattlePD made a secure exit for attendees to safety leave, preventing any further potential attacks.
The protesters ran around the building and hurled abuse at the group of Christians as they left. Many antifa were arrested.
OBSERVATION - I noted yesterday that I expected Antifa / Transtifa to try to target participants after the rally was over and was not disappointed in my analysis. There were reports that a few attendees were separated out and harassed, but the police effort to prevent this mostly worked.
Now, with some deeper looks by the FBI, pressure on the city may increase enough to shift some support away from Antifa for the short term. Seattle police union issued a statement a couple days ago that it will not tolerate the excesses granted. This is a reflection of a growing number of residents getting tired of Antifa running the show and the wide spread crime associated with them.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Sunday issued a warning to Jews and Israelis in Canada, urging them to exercise caution in response to “calls for violence” emanating from anti-Israel rallies.
The NSC increased its travel alert to a level 2 (potential threat level), citing an “increased threat by terrorists against Israelis and Jews in Canada.”
“In the past 18 months, there have been several attacks against Jewish institutions and centers, including shooting incidents, Molotov cocktails, and threats against Israelis/Jews in the country,” they detailed, according to the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office (PMO).
OBSERVATION - Canada is just across the border to our north and one can be certain the same planning is ongoing here. Two recent acts of terror already. These pro-Hamas rallies here are centered on university and college campuses. They will continue to set conditions encouraging more acts of violence and terror against Jews in America.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Consumer confidence increased in May, results of the Conference Board’s much-watched Consumer Confidence Index released Tuesday reveal.
At 98.0, the May index is up 12.3 points from the previous month’s level and just two points shy of the benchmark of 100.0. The improvement in consumer confidence was broad-based, spanning all age, income, and political affiliation groups.
An index of consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions also improved, increasing 4.8 points to 135.9.
The most significant improvement was in the index for consumer expectations, which the Conference Board says “surged 17.4 points to 72.8.” While the Expectations Index remained below the benchmark threshold of 80.0, all three components – expectations for income, business and the labor market – improved from the previous month.
The improvement in consumer confidence began before the U.S.-China trade deal, which averted the “reciprocal tariffs” President Donald Trump had threatened to impose on Chinese goods, and intensified after the deal’s announcement on May 12.
https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/consumer-confidence-enjoys-broad-based-improvement-may
OBSERVATION - Though subjective in many ways, the report identifies that consumers are seeing things improving and are expecting more of the same. This runs greatly contrary to the leftist democrat narrative that the economy is being trashed by Trump policies.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Using commercial satellite imagery, observers have noted the U.S. Air Force has recently augmented its aerial refueling capabilities at Diego Garcia, deploying additional KC-135 Stratotankers to the strategic Indian Ocean base.
OBSERVATION - This is an indicator that action may soon be on the way. Could also indicate that the previous refuelers may soon leave as part of a force rotation.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
Danger Will Robinson - new contagious version of wuhan present in China and going global. (/sarc)
POLITICAL FRONT –
During a press conference today, Governor DeSantis addressed the failure of Congress to enact one DOGE suggested cut. Elon Musk and his DOGE team found over 900 billion dollars in cuts. Congress has not followed up on even one.
This is the key section of Governor De Santis’s comments which also spoke to successes in Florida:
“Trillion dollar deficit is a tax on you. It works its way through the economy. There’s no free lunch, and that’s what ends up happening. And it’s a little frustrating.
“You know, Elon Musk went into this DOGE effort. He was getting lampooned, I mean, like they’re fire bombing his Tesla dealerships, media smearing him relentlessly. His businesses suffered. All this stuff because he basically said, Look, we can’t keep doing this, and we need to moderate and reduce the amount of money that the federal government is spending.
“And yet we have a Republican Congress, and to this day, we’re in the the end of May, past Memorial Day, and not one cent in DOGE cuts have been implemented by the Congress. That’s one of the reasons why we need a Balanced Budget Amendment to the US Constitution. It’s another reason why we need term limits for members of Congress.”
https://www.independentsentinel.com/congress-failed-to-enact-any-of-the-nearly-1t-doge-cuts/
OBSERVATION - Musk has also remarked negatively on the bill for the same reason. This congress has been excessively do nothing while taking more time off than ever to avoid doing the people’s work and supporting Trump. They are snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory again.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump on Truth Social: What Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD. He’s playing with fire!
Illegal Immigration –
San Diego Soft Sided Facility, which houses 1,000 illegals, has announced it’s closing. With a daily average arrest of just 38 illegals a day, they’ve decided they no longer need the facility. This was a 186% drop compared to March of 2024.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Russia’s Baltic Fleet has launched a large-scale naval exercise in the Baltic Sea, the military confirmed Tuesday. The drills will include over 20 vessels, such as a frigate, corvettes, minesweepers, and small missile and anti-submarine ships.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Following Trump’s “REALLY BAD” statement, Russia warned the US about its ‘really bad’ scenario, threatening WW3.
RUMINT-
Putin’s betting on a big summer offensive — still convinced he can win. The main push is expected in Donetsk, toward Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, while 125,000 troops mass near Sumy and Kharkiv. Ukraine’s bracing for defense. This might be Russia’s last real shot.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 80s mostly clear with scattered thunderstorms.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
On the night of May 28, Ukrainian air defense neutralized 71 out of 88 Russian Shahed drones. Russia also launched Iskander-M & Kh-59/69 missiles from Kursk, Voronezh, and occupied Crimea. Strikes were recorded in 8 locations. Sloviansk was attacked with Shahed-type drones
Russian losses per 28/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1050 men
+4 tanks
+2 AFVs
+18 artillery
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Kostiantynivka of Sumy region and Zelene Pole of Donetsk region of Ukraine
115 Ukrainian drones reportedly struck targets deep in Russia overnight. Kronshtadt UAV factory near Moscow and the Elma technopark—key centers for Russian drone and microelectronics production—were hit, according to Russian media.
A major fire can be seen burning at the Kronshtadt Production and Dubna Machine-Building Plant in the town of Dubna to the north of Moscow, which produces both drones and cruise missiles for the Russian Armed Force, following this morning’s large-scale drone attack by Ukraine.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down 296 drones overnight
Kursk -
In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 32 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports
Summary —
The continued lowered Russian losses would feed into a form of a tactical pause that would permit Russia to reassemble a strike force to engage in a more aggressive summer offensive (see Russia above) However, scraping 125K in one sector seems rather high, though the idea of pressing towards Sumy and Kharkiv is strategically sound according to Russian goals. Many of these troops likely syphoned off from operations to regain Kursk. Lowered attack tempo across the rest of the front would also permit replacements to be concentrated there versus other sectors.
Interesting wild card is the range limits for NATO deep strike systems could come into play as the assembly areas for these Russia forces would be well within range. Cluster bomb ATACMS hitting deep troop assemblies could wreak havoc.
Ukraine has gotten in some good, solid strikes on Russian targets overnight, including setting fire to a major Russian drone / missile plant in Kronshtadt. Ukraine drones also hit other key sites. On the Russia side, Shahed style attacks were down, allowing Ukraine ADA assets to be more effective and not overwhelmed as of late.
Ceasefire talks are still in the mud, don’t wait for anything to happen short term.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- IAF hit Sana International Airport, destroying the remaining airliner/cargo jet the Houthi had available to them.
- US organized relief distribution began yesterday. Hamas attempted to block and small riot broke out.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Deployment:
- Division 162 to dominate northern Gaza.
- Divisions 36 & 98 to operate in Khan Yunis.
- Division 252 to control the central Strip.
- Division 143 to maintain operations in Rafah, the buffer zone, and the Gaza envelope.
The IDF currently holds over 40% of Gaza, with plans to secure 75% within two months, per the IDF Spokesperson.
***
A group called the “Counter-Terrorism Apparatus,” led by Yasser Abu Shabab and operating under IDF protection in Rafah’s Jargun Palace, released photos from the local aid center claiming Gazans are receiving assistance.
Abu Shabab commands an armed militia backed by both the Palestinian Authority and Israel, made up of around 150 fighters, mostly former PA members, and based in Rafah’s Netzer neighborhood. They secure convoys along the Morag axis and conduct advance patrols ahead of IDF movements to expose “resistance” operatives, effectively aiding Israel in its war against Hamxs.
The group coordinates with Israeli and American officials, and critics claim their role in aid distribution is part of a broader plan to pave the way for mass displacement.
***
A UN operated relief convoy was ambushed by Hamas and a number of trucks were captured and looted.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli army announced the assassination of a member of Hezbollah’s “Radwan” unit in yesterday’s raid in Majdal Zun, southern Lebanon.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The IDF says a medical facility it set up in southern Syria, next to the Druze village of Hader, has so far treated over 500 Syrians. The “forward mobile triage” was established several weeks ago, amid the IDF’s ongoing operations in southern Syria, and is intended to treat Syrian Druze in the area, the military says.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Israeli Air Force carried out several precision-strikes this morning against what remained of Sana’a International Airport in the Houthi-controlled capital of Western Yemen. With the Israel Defense Force (IDF) confirming that strikes targeted infrastructure at the airport as well as an aircraft used by the Houthis “to transport terrorists who advanced terror attacks on Israel.”
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1927643600268992955?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Houthi media: 4 airstrikes targeted Sana’a airport runway and a Yemenia Airlines plane.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
EU Foreign Affairs Spokesperson: We renew our call for immediate and unhindered aid delivery to Gaza.
British Foreign Office: Depriving Gazans of essential aid is unacceptable and constitutes a violation of international humanitarian law.
Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani: “The IDF’s attacks on Gaza must be stopped immediately. We are ready to help maintain peace under Arab leadership.”
Germany’s foreign minister threatened unspecified measures against Israel on Tuesday and said Berlin would not export weapons used to break humanitarian law, as he and Chancellor Friedrich Merz delivered their most severe rebuke yet over Gaza.
OVERALL OBSERVATION - Yesterday Hamas attempted to prevent Gazans from receiving food from the US/Israel distribution sites. No word about Hamas blocking (or stealing) aid.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Gaza operations continue relatively unhindered by Hamas.
Biggest item is the new set up for distribution of food and other aid. As noted, Hamas is trying to prevent aid from getting to Gazans, bypassing their schemes. The small riot that occurred as several hundred pressed across lines was quickly and relatively easily handled. This operation is expected to grow. Key item here is removing Hamas from the mix as they’ve stolen the vast amount of aid that has been allowed into the country and selling it back to the Gazans at exorbitant prices. Hamas-free distribution strips power from them and encourages Gazans to move into the designated safe areas so that the IDF can more quickly move into current Hamas controlled sectors of Gaza.
The use of the Abu Shabab militia for distribution defense is also a good call, puts a ‘palestinian’ face on the distribution of good, and not necessarily a US or Israeli.
Hezbollah leaders continued to be exterminated in S Lebanon.
Tension builds to a potential strike against Iran should the nuclear talks stay stuck in the mud.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region.
Increase in air refueling tankers at Diego Garcia is worth watching. They can not only handle US aircraft, but Israeli as well. There are other bombers in the Western Pacific region that could call on their services as well.
Trump remains optimistic, but he better remember how they danced around during his first term.
Syria -
(ISW). Salafi-jihadi groups, such as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), have increased their activity in Syria in May 2025. A Syrian Interior Ministry spokesperson noted the increase in activity after three recent raids targeting ISIS cells in May.
“Dan Bongino of the FBI announced on Tuesday that the agency has opened an investigation into “allegations of targetd violence against religious groups at the Seattle concert.” This follows an incident on Sunday in which Mayday USA, a Christian group, held a permitted concert in Cal Anderson Park which drew Antifa counter-protesters who then attacked the Christians.
Following the attack, Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell condemned the Christian group who was attacked, claiming that they were “far-right” and had no business holding an event in the park due to its proximity to the locus of the LGBTQ+ community. 23 arrests were made among the militants who showed up to harass the Christian event.”
Dan Bongino’s a good man - he’s not going to fall for this crap...
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***
The Democratic Socialists of America call to free “political prisoner” Elias Rodriguez, the Jewish museum shooter who kiIIed two Americans in DC last week.
OBSERVATION - IIRC, AOC is a member of this democrat offshoot. This declaration is also a declaration against America as Rodriguez also posted a lot about destroying America.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
(FO) According to the Defense Intelligence Agency’s (DIA) recently released 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment, the DIA assesses that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) will probably attempt high profile attacks in the west over the next year.
OBSERVATIONS (FO) Former CIA analyst and targeter Sarah Adams has been predicting a “9/11 2.0” featuring Mumbai-style swarm attack against a highly populated area like a stadium or event venue. It’s at least feasible that dozens or hundreds of foreign terrorists have slipped in through the previously-porous southern border.
POLITICAL FRONT –
There is no evidence that former President Joe Biden knew of at least eight climate-related executive actions he supposedly signed during office, according to a pro-American energy watchdog group.
Power the Future, a nonprofit organization founded by energy expert Daniel Turner, released a report this week revealing “troubling” implications about several significant actions from the previous administration, especially given the recent reports that most of the official documents Biden signed during his time were via autopen signature.
OBSERVATION - The AutoPen scandal continues to grow and casts growing darkness of the legality and constitutionality of EOs and other official documents put forth by the administration.
***
In the coming days, legacy media will try to convince you that President Trump and Elon Musk are no longer friends and that’s why Musk left.
What they won’t tell you is that Elon was a Special Government Employee, limited to 130 days of service and that term ends tomorrow.
***
Congress is putting in fewer hours per week than Trump does in a single day.
TRUMP Watch –
Putting my combined comments here. Trump is failing on three major foreign policy matters - Russia, Gaza and Iran. What concerns me further is the silence from his foreign policy team (excluding Witkoff) on his recent statements.
He has talked bigly, yet is failing epically to keep his word, encouraging our opponents to increase their belligerence and making the world less safe. His track is very similar to many efforts done during his first term. I hope he is going to turn the corner here very soon.
China -
US Sec State Rubio announces visas for Chinese foreign students in the US are to be revoked.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Trump tells reporters that U.S. will find out “within two weeks” whether or not Putin is “tapping us along”
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 80s mostly clear with scattered thunderstorms.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 Shahed-type drones, 46 more were intercepted by electronic warfare means. In total Russia launched 90 drones. Strikes targeted frontline areas in Sumy, Kharkiv & Donetsk regions.
Russian losses per 29/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1050 men
+1 AFV
+31 artillery
Summary —
Drone strikes continue at a lowered pace as too Russian casualties. This is interesting given that Russia as taken ground the past couple weeks and did so with much lower losses. Also note way, way lower Russian armor and other vehicle losses.
I can’t account for current Russia successes at lowered losses, unless Ukraine is conducting and economy of force operations to build reserves to counter what they expect to be a major offensive towards Sumy and Kharkiv in the coming month.
Analysts considering this offensive suggest this could be Russia’s last big play on the ground that would consume most of its remaining reserves of people, armor and other equipment. Russian storage facilities are just about out of armor they can supply to the front and factories unable to make up the difference. Even at lowered combat rates, 1000 losses / day still equates to 30,000 per month - a figure only slightly lower than Russia resupply rates. putin did increase the number of conscripts for this year, but only by about 20K, hardly enough to mount a big invasion.
Some of the personnel needed are still being supplied by N Korea, though numbers are not very significant. With it, NK is supplying armor, artillery and munitions. Still hard to see Russia scraping up 150K men and equipment in a short term.
Does Russia have a trick up its sleeve? Time will tell.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level warnings have been removed as conditions appear to have returned to pre-combat and pre terror incident levels. May 25, 2025
(FO) India and Pakistan are both increasing their purchases of military air platform purchases in response to their recent border conflict. Pakistan is consulting Turkey and China to increase its native unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) production. India is investing $4.6 billion in its own manned fighter aircraft and UAV production.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- New hostage deal?
- Potential US/Iran nuclear deal
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Reports of a new Witkoff proposal Hamas is claiming to agreeing to -
- On the first day, 5 live hostages and 9 dead hostages will be released.
- On the seventh day, 5 live and 9 dead hostages will also be released.
- President Trump will declare a ceasefire and guarantee that the parties respect the deal.
- Israel will immediately stop all offensive military operations in Gaza.
- Israel will release in exchange for the ten live hostages: 125 life prisoners, 1,111 Gazan prisoners who were arrested after October 7.
- In exchange for the 18 dead hostages - Israel will release 180 bodies of Gazans, also in two stages.
- On the tenth day, Hamas will deliver a complete list that includes a detailed medical report on the condition of the living hostages in Gaza.
- The US, Egypt and Qatar will be guarantors of the ceasefire - and envoy Witkoff will arrive in the region to finally close the details of the deal.
***
Trump confirms he told Netanyahu an attack on Iran right now will be inappropriate because the U.S. and Iran are close to a nuclear deal
***
Israel’s innovative “Iron Beam” laser air defense system has been successfully tested:
The “Magen Or” defense system succeeded in intercepting at least 4 Hezbollah drones during the fighting with the Iranian backed Lebanese terror group.
OBSERVATION - Drone warfare is fast becoming the cutting edge battlefield weapon of choice. Modern air defense systems are generally very costly in comparison to the cheap drone. Drone defense is the latest arms race golden ring.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
A Gazan mob broke into Hamas’ al-Jafari warehouses at the entrance to the al-Maghazi refugee camp in the center of the Gaza Strip, where Hamas stores its flour stockpiles, and emptied it. Hamas terrorists shot dead 5 civilians who broke into it. The IDF spokesman in Arabic, Col. Avichai Adraee, published the footage of the incident and harshly attacked the terrorist organization: “For months, Hamas tried to spread the lie of famine, only to discover that it itself had hidden tons of flour. May God take revenge on you, infidels.”
I’m sure there are many more such warehouses.
***
1,688,148 meals distributed by GHF today in three separate locations.
Each package provides food for 5.5 people for one week:
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah statement:
“We once again call on the Arab and Islamic peoples and countries to stand by the Yemeni people and support their courageous stance in support of Palestine and its people”
OBSERVATION - The once ‘mighty’ Hezbollah reduced to meaningless statements of support.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Netanyahu reportedly approving 20 new settlements in the Judea and Samaria region.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
If true, this Witkoff deal is the worst one ever. Shows for starters the US ignores its own red lines. Second, it capitulates to Hamas at a time where it is at its weakest. Third, it pulls the carpet out from under Israel’s policy. The fact that Hamas is begging for such a deal shows just how desperate it is for another ceasefire with which to reorganize itself. One aspect that will be hard for Hamas to accept is the drastically lowered numbers of in-prisoned terrorists being released - about 1/10th the ratio of previous exchanges. It also doesn’t force Israel to leave Gaza, only stop combat. Another hard red line of Hamas.
Hamas, of course, will announce acceptance of this plan, and then proceed to redefine its terms. Netanyahu will be hard pressed to accept this plan. Israel is full on its current operation, with 5 divisions and several separate brigades putting the firepower on Hamas. In two months they could see more reduction of Hamas than this plan can provide.
Critical to Hamas’ plan is to force the distribution of food back to the UN where they can steal more and more of it to sell to the Gazans and fund their operations. The US operated distribution seems to be cutting a big hole into support for Hamas. Add to this the Gazans breaking into a large Hamas warehouse full of flour. . . . Well the international crowd should shut up about this so called famine. The food weapon is being turned against Hamas as their fat, well maintained “leaders” from outside Gaza tell them to starve to death for the cause.
On the ground, IDF continues to chew up Hamas held terrain.
On Iran, Witkoff’s negotiations are rumored to be going south as well - see Iran below.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.
Iran may agree to temporarily halt nuclear enrichment if the U.S. formally recognizes its right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes.
Iranian officials told Reuters today that their condition for halting uranium enrichment is the release of frozen U.S. funds and U.S. recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes.
***
Member of the Iranian Parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Security Committee Threatens: “We Have 300 Kilograms of enriched Uranium, That’s the Equivalent of 10 Bombs”
(Shahar Kleiman)
Iranian nuclear scientist Fereydoon Abbasi:
“Iran can produce a small device powerful enough to destroy an entire military base without being classified as a weapon of mass destruction. “
He added that “the Zionists have a chance to leave now” and that “whoever stays should be eliminated.”
https://x.com/osint613/status/1927685448710697052?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
CNN:
The US and Iran are very close to a nuclear agreement - and may close it at the next meeting between the parties.
It appears: The agreement will not require Iran to completely stop uranium enrichment, and will incorporate American supervision of facilities in Iran.
In addition, Iran’s missile project and support for terrorist organizations are not included in the discussions
OBSERVATION - CNN is questionable at this stage pending verification by other sources If this report is true, then it is a major concession by the US and essentially grants Iran most of its demands. Some suggest this is an interim agreement as talks progress towards a final.
Sadly, if this it Trump’s “Art of the Deal”, the world will quickly become a much less safer place. Iran is at its weakest now than it has in decades. It also increases the probability of an Israeli strike without US support.
OVERALL ASSESSMENTS - First numerous threats by Iran implying they may already have a ‘small’ weapon or close to it. This represents an escalation of the nuclear rhetoric by Iran which may fuel Israeli justification for an independent strike.
Second, it this agreement is valid, the US has folded on all key requirements and increased the probability that Israel will act independently. Source for this ‘agreement’ has credibility problems, which can provide some hope. But if true, this would be one of Trump’s worst foreign policy failures - eclipsing that peace effort between Ukraine and Russia.
Key indicator to watch is if US pulls back forces from the region. As of yet, the only indicator is that more air tankers have arrived on Diego Garcia, suggesting preparedness to fuel hungry fighters and bombers.
Misc of Note –
Fire season is already hitting regions of the west and southwest. Take precautions now to fire safe your home if you live in your bug out location or regular home in a woodland/urban interface region.
For you on the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, NOAA is crunching the numbers for the hurricane season. Get ready now.
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