Hump day - what’s going down
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Crude oil prices rose Tuesday night, following a report that Israel is gearing up for a possible strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
CNN, citing multiple U.S. officials, reported that the U.S. has obtained intelligence suggesting Israel is making preparations, including munitions movements and air exercises, for a potential airstrike on Iranian nuclear sites.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures for July
CLN25
+0.89%
briefly spiked 3.5% on Tuesday night, above $64 a barrel, before settling back to around $63 a barrel, up 1.6%. Brent crude for July
BRNN25
+0.83%
last topped $66 a barrel, up 1.5%.
***
GasBuddy, a fuel savings platform, said Tuesday that it forecasts the national average price of gasoline to be $3.08 per gallon on Memorial Day. That would make it the cheapest since 2021 in nominal terms. After adjusting for inflation, it would be the lowest since 2003.
This is not expected to be short-lived. Prices of gasoline are expected to average around $3.02 per gallon between Memorial Day and Labor Day, with prices falling below three dollars on some days.
That’s likely to bring cheer to the 69 percent of Americans who plan on taking a road trip this summer.
OBSERVATION - Seemingly contradictory news, remember it takes time for immediate crude prices to be reflected at the local gas pump. And a one day jump may not be seen at all.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Department of Defense has selected a design for President Donald Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense initiative, Trump announced on May 20.
“I’m pleased to announce that we have officially selected an architecture for this state-of-the-art system that will deploy next-generation technologies across the land, sea, and space, including space-based sensors and interceptors,” Trump told reporters at the White House.
“It should be fully operational before the end of my term. So we’ll have it done in about three years,” the president said.
Trump said the plan that the Department of Defense has selected should cost about $175 billion to complete.
The plan will meld new technologies with existing U.S. missile defense systems.
OBSERVATION - I remember how the world laughed at Reagan with his vision of a “Star Wars” missile defense system. That vision has carried forward to levels of success. Probably with the advance of AI for software targeting / tracking, systems designated under the Golden Dome could achieve some degree of operational readiness in the next three to four years.
***
Now confirmed that 6 F-15E “Strike Eagles” have been forward-deployed to Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean over the last week, in order to serve as a layer of defense for the 4 B-52H
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
The FDA announces it no longer recommends Covid shots for most Americans.
OBSERVATION - What took them so long?
POLITICAL FRONT –
A great deal of political fighting over Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” as it approaches final votes.
Illegal Immigration –
In spite of the judicial insurrection, deportations continue to press forward.
China -
China‘s advanced “drone carrier,” Jiu Tian, is set to launch its first mission by the end of June 2025, marking a bold step in extending the Chinese air force’s unmanned aerial combat capabilities. This high-altitude, jet-powered unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) will undergo a series of tests before deployment with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), fueling both excitement and skepticism within the global drone community, according to the SCMP.
the Jiu Tian—meaning “high sky”—features a 4,350-mile (7,000 km) range and can operate at 50,000 feet (15,000 meters). With a maximum takeoff weight of 16 tons and an 82-foot (25-meter) wingspan, it can carry up to 6 tons of payload, including loitering munitions and small drones like kamikaze UAVs. “The aircraft can release up to 100 units of loitering ammunition or small drones from both sides of its belly,” CCTV reported, emphasizing its swarm deployment potential.
The UAV also boasts a 36-hour endurance, enabling extended missions far from its base. Developed in just 18 months, with the fourth prototype completed by April 2025, the Jiu Tian reflects China’s rapid advancements in UAV technology. Its design allows it to fly above many medium-range defense systems, a strategic advantage in contested airspace.
Despite its capabilities, the Jiu Tian has drawn skepticism. Online critics, as noted in posts on X, have called it “big, slow, and not stealthy,” arguing it’s a “gigantic missile magnet” against advanced air defenses like the U.S. THAAD or Patriot PAC-3 systems, which can engage targets at or above 50,000 feet. One retired U.S. Air Force pilot remarked, “This is like trying to sneak into near-peer enemy airspace with a formation of KC-10s,” suggesting its survivability in contested regions like the Taiwan Strait is questionable without significant support from other PLA assets.
OBSERVATION - Big powers like China are working to adapt drone technology and tactics so adeptly demonstrated in Ukraine. Some developments may seem impressive, but until tested in combat, may be rather dubious instead.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 80s with scattered showers and thundershowers.
RUMINT -
Ukrainian forces report a buildup of Russian troops near the state border in the Kharkiv direction — a possible sign of preparations for new assault operations, says the chief of staff of the “Khartiya” unit.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Last night, Russia launched 76 Shahed & other drones from Kursk, Orel, and Bryansk. Ukraine’s air defenses shot down 63 — 22 destroyed by firepower, 41 jammed by EW systems.
Russian losses per 21/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+980 men
+1 tank
+2 AFVs
+23 artillery
Russian Territory –
Ukraine launched a drone strike on Russia last night—damaging a factory in Bolkhov (Oryol Oblast) producing electronics for the Russian army, incl. microchips, semiconductors & batteries. Russia claims 127 drones were downed across 6 regions.
Partisan Resistance ——
Partisan group ATESH—an underground resistance movement operating in occupied territories—has destroyed a Russian EW vehicle in Kherson’s Henichesk district.
Summary —
Another day of exceptionally low combat losses by Russia. With the RUMINT above, my concerns of a tactical pause by Russia to reposition forces for renewed attacks is becoming more likely.
Kharkiv along with Sumy are two likely locations for any concentrated offensive. The region has a much higher troop levels due to the Kursk fight that are becoming available now that virtually all the territory seized by Ukraine has been retaken. Both cities are desirable by Russia for capture, but success now vs 2022 is not good given the overall degradation of the Russian army in equipment and trained manpower and improvements in Ukraine defenses.
Russia may try to exploit their very limited penetration into Kharkiv oblast, but Ukraine defenses and counter attacks have made that salient a challenge for Russia to maintain.
Other potential targets include Zaporizhzhia and Odesa, though this would require significantly more redeployment movement and resupply challenges. And in the case of Odesa - a massive river crossing operation, the likes of which Russia has sucked at on lower levels.
Peace / ceasefire talks continue to be a clown circus.
Europe / NATO General –
Unusual movements by the British Royal Air Force were observed today in the direction of the Eastern Mediterranean, with 3-4 KC2 and KC3 “Voyager” aerial-refueling tankers, likely accompanied by an unknown number of fighter aircraft, arriving earlier today at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus from RAF Brize Norton in England.
OBSERVATION - Speculation ranges from force rotation to preparations for involvement in some level of action in the middle east.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level - ADVISORY, May 19, 2025
A blast hit a student bus near Khuzdar, Balochistan, killing four children and injuring several. The bus was headed to an army-run school with around 40 students, officials said.
Pakistan army blames “India proxies”
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Threats from various countries to cut off Israel due to Gaza operations.
- Propaganda from Hamas filtered thru media of massive split in US / Israeli cooperation on multiple issues.
- Israel increases Gaza presence and operational tempo.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
RUMINT - The U.S. has acquired new intelligence indicating that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. (Reuters)
American officials tell CNN: “ According to intelligence we have, Israel is preparing to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.”
OBSERVATION - I’m calling generally BS on this report. These ‘leaks’ also said Trump was going to declare a Palestinian state during his trip to Gulf nations - never happed did it.
***
And more BS
Speaking on BBC’s program, UN aid chief Tom Fletcher said yesterday, “There are 14,000 babies that will die in the next 48 hours unless we can reach them.” When asked how he arrived at that number, he referred to “strong teams on the ground” but gave no specific data.
The BBC later asked the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs to clarify. They explained that the figure comes from IPC projections, which estimate 14,100 cases of severe acute malnutrition in Gaza over an entire year, NOT within 48 hours.
Pressed again, UN spokesman Jens Laerke said some babies urgently need supplements because “their mothers are unable to feed themselves.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
The Israeli army is expanding the scope of the fighting forces in the Gaza Strip: Additional Israeli army brigades entered the Gaza Strip territory tonight - and joined the ground maneuvers as part of Operation “Gideon’s Chariots.” Among the regular brigades that entered combat tonight in various areas of the Gaza Strip are the Nahal, Golani and Kfir brigades.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army says it killed Hezbollah commander Hussein Nazih in a raid on Tyre
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
UK Foreign Minister David Lammy:
“Israel’s behavior must be stopped, and we tell it that further measures will be taken if it does not stop the Gaza war.”
The U.K. has suspended free trade talks with Israel while announcing new sanctions against settlers in the West Bank, due to Israel’s decision to impose a near three-month blockade on humanitarian aid as well as the recent launch of a military operation to completely occupy the Gaza Strip.
The Spanish Parliament has approved consideration of a proposal to ban arms trade with Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Global anti-Israeli propaganda hit pieces are becoming shrill in the face of Hamas being eliminated from Gaza. As seen since Oct 7, the propaganda machine that encompasses Iran and its proxies, inclusive of Hamas, has reached a fever pitch in an effort to stop Israel in this case from militarily defeating Hamas and wiping it from the Gaza map. A large part of this effort has been to depict a schism between Trump and Netanyahu on aspects of the conflict. A few weeks ago, it was the bogus “sources” claiming Trump was going to declare a Palestine state during his gulf visit (published in the JPost!!!). That turned out to be absolutely false.
Now these same ‘sources’ are claiming a developing rift over Israel and plans for an imminent attack on Iran as well as 14,000 Gazan babies to die in the next 48 hours ( a claim that the UN was forced to walk back). These “sources” claim that Trump is fed up with Israel and it needs to get it ‘wrapped up’. The outright lies from the media are flagrant and open folks. They are desperate for anything to gain traction to force Israel to slow/stop its final phase against Hamas.
The famine bleat is weak given the abundance of food controlled by Hamas, imagery of full food markets and restaurants in Gaza and fat Gazans. The US controlled food distribution in S Gaza is scheduled to begin May 24th. Famine is not real in Gaza folks.
Currently, Hamas has completely rejected the Witkoff outline for hostage releases and a ceasefire, a plan that Israel has agreed to. Israel has retained some elements in Doha in the event Hamas sees the light, but its main negotiation team has returned to Israel.
IDF continues to ramp up its operations. N Gaza has been ordered to evacuate to the south. En route, they will be screened several times by Israeli forces to ensure no arms or material is going with them as well as identify Hamas and affiliated fighters for detention.
Situation with Syria is stable.
IAF continues targeted drone strikes on Hezbollah leaders and personnel south of the Litani River, where Lebanese military forces have been required to act to remove them.
Apart from the rumors of an impending Israeli strike on Iran, a strike by both US and Israel is growing closer each day - see below.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region.
According to Reuters, Iran has rejected the U.S. proposal without offering any counterproposal.
Iran also reluctant to engage in another round of negotiations.
Iran faces a dead end if nuclear talks with the U.S. fail, officials told Reuters, with Supreme Leader Khamenei firmly rejecting demands to stop uranium enrichment. Four rounds of talks have stalled, largely due to Iran’s refusal to curb its missile program or ship out enriched uranium.
One senior official warned that without sanctions relief, Iran’s economy can’t recover, especially with blocked oil revenues and limited financial access. Despite closer ties with China and Russia, Iranian insiders admit their backing won’t be enough to offset the damage.
https://x.com/osint613/status/1925094874262405604?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - The sticking point - enrichment of uranium. Even a very small enrichment program retention by Iran will give it a toe hold to covertly process to the 90%+ level necessary for a weapon - just take longer. Further, Iran has a demonstrated track record of ignoring earlier agreement on the enrichment levels and quantities of uranium.
At this stage, Iran is calling the US hand believing that Trump has no backbone to follow thru on his military options. If Trump backs down, a much more dangerous situation will rise up as Israel will not sit idly by and watch Iran progress towards a bomb. Like Syria and Iraq, Israel is not afraid to single handedly attack threatening nuclear programs.
Given Iran’s domestic economic woes, an Israeli attack may not be limited to nuclear programs, but eliminating Iranian oil industry as well. Kharg Island - 90% of Iranian oil passes thru there - is a sitting duck. Absent US involvement, an Israeli / Iran conflict could see Iran implementing the oil blockade option, forcing US involvement.
What will the final straw be?
Misc of Note –
Ebb and flow of global events necessitates reevaluation of threats here at home. It’s the good ‘ol OODA loop at work again. So lets stop and think.
Currently on the top of my chart is potential war in the Persian Gulf. In addition to the involvement of US military forces, at home we can expect
- Cyber attacks on banking, infrastructure and others by Iranian actors
- Terror attacks by Iranian agents
- Rise in violent anti-Israel protests
- Shockwaves from an oil blockade of the Straits of Hormuz with resulting gasoline shortages
- Melt down of stock markers globally
Each of these will have varying local effects
Preparing for this scenario is multi faceted and one should already be well down the road. Food and other supples stockpiled. On hand cash reserve. Hyper situation awareness at venues that could serve as a terror attack event as well as urban violent protests in the usual Antifa strong areas for starters.
The other area of concern is the growing evidence that the left may finally be getting some events that can generate turnout as these protests. Recent charges on the congress critters who assaulted ICE agents in NJ is one area. Even bolder calls to assassinate Trump continue to resonate in the democrat left. Next mile marker for the evaluation of any growth in support will be the National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June. They have got to get something more than a bunch of gray haired boomers in the streets.
As always, temper you OODA loop evaluations with your local conditions. Effects I may or may not see here in the Redoubt may be different for you where you live.
This has been going on for years. There's been talk of it for a long time.
That said, the person who *leaked* the rumor needs to be held accountable and prosecuted.
Yesterday’s post was OBE, so today’s is a little larger in areas. No post tomorrow or Sunday.
Enjoy your Memorial Day weekend, hundreds of thousands die for your pleasure.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***
Smaller, lethal terrorism taking front stage as below.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
Two Israeli embassy staff are dead following a shooting outside of the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C.
The gunman, a 30 year old identified as Elias Rodriguez of Chicago, was taken into custody. While in custody, he shouted “Free, free Palestine!’
Police identified Elias Rodriguez as the suspect in the murder of 2 Israelis in DC. He screamed “Free Palestine” in custody. The DC shooter seems to be Elias Rodriguez from the Party for Socialism and Liberation.
OBSERVATIONS -
Commentary below pretty much says it all -
“Manhattan Institute associate Will Sussman precisely conveys my thoughts on last night’s anti-Semitic murders at the Jewish Museum in Washington:
This didn’t happen in a vacuum. It’s the inevitable result of more than a year of anti-Israel and antisemitic hatred that has been tolerated and even encouraged in our institutions. From college campuses to the halls of Congress, this hatred has been allowed to fester unchecked.
Tonight’s tragedy will be a wake-up call for many. But for those of us who have been watching closely, the alarm bells have been ringing since October 7. This is what it means to “globalize the intifada.””
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/05/on-last-nights-murders.php
***
A female driver has been SHOT after she attempted to ram the gates of the CIA HQ in McLean, VA, per police
This is the SECOND security incident at CIA HQ in the last couple of months.
FBI currently in the scene. Motive is unclear.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Violent, acts of murder are unfortunately trending upward. Sociopaths on social media like Redditt are cheering the latest assassination and attacks, crying in blood lust fashion for more. Not only has the latest murders been encouraged by anti-Israeli college based groups, but in a broader sense encouragement and incitement has been promptly loudly by democrats, most recently by disgraced former FBI chief Comey - who called for Trump to be 86’d. Other very vocal leftist democrat politicians have been calling for same. Meanwhile, the taliban caucus in congress has avoided commenting on the latest assassinations.
Elias Rodriguez is being shown to be a violent, radicalized leftist who chose to target this couple to “Free Palestine” Now his supporters are saying he is a political prisoner.
The past year has seen a dangerous increase in politically driven assassinations, beginning with two (three?) against Trump, murder of a health insurance CEO, among others to date. The leftists are cheering on for more.
So far these are ‘small’ incidents, involving one person (thought the Butler PA attempt on Trump strongly suggests a much larger conspiracy). Imagine the level of murder/killing that maybe unleashed should Antifa et al get their way and Floyd style riots break out again. Given the cover that a crowd can give, shooters could be far more prevalent than in 2020 where there were some incidents. Targets would be more select and specific.
Violence and murder is boiling in the marxist leftist realm and more attacks like this are VERY likely in the future.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Consideration of plans to redeploy forces from S Korea to other asian / western Pacific bases underway.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
A study of 2.3 million patients found mRNA COVID-19 vaccine recipients had a 30% higher risk of thyroid disorders (e.g., hypothyroidism) compared to unvaccinated individuals, with over 4,000 extra hypothyroidism cases observed. Those who received only one dose faced double the risk.
The study suggests mRNA vaccines may trigger autoimmune reactions, where the immune system attacks thyroid tissue, mirroring concerns seen with other conditions like myocarditis and hepatitis. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine (non-mRNA) showed no elevated thyroid risks, pointing to mRNA-specific effects.
https://thelibertydaily.com/new-study-links-mrna-vaccines-long-term-thyroid/
RELATED -
The Biden regime knew about the risks of myocarditis from the COVID-19 injections early on, but decided not to inform the public about the risks, according to a new Senate report released by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Wednesday.
OBSERVATIONS - More and more studies coming to light that show the mRNA ‘vaccine’ to have been more dangerous than the virus ever was.
RELATED -
Rogan: “I just sent Jamie this study. VAERS adjusted data, and other derived from the MIT, Florida Department of Health study findings that yield a conservative range of 470,000 to 600,000 American deaths from the Covid-19 mRNA shots.”
Rodgers: “That’s it?”
Rogan: “Well, just that alone. That’s a lot of people, man.”
Then came the jaw-dropper:
“More than World War I, World War II and Vietnam combined.”
And it gets worse:
“This is Pfizer alone, so this is not even Moderna.”
“Pfizer alone likely killed over 470,000 Americans.”
“They found a 36% increase in all cause mortality among Pfizer recipients versus Moderna.”
https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1925586840389595188?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
POLITICAL FRONT –
No loss of nasty political fighting to keep criminal illegals in country and activist judges interfering with clearly constitutionally defined functions of the Executive.
Right now democrats have little to gain traction with. Recent polls show substantial support for Trump’s agenda and their polls are in the sewer.
Recent rumblings is a effort to sabotage the budget bill and force a govt shutdown, since they had good press from previous shutdowns. I don’t think they realize that they are not holding a superior propaganda edge in the information warfare necessary to gain a ‘win’. Many Americans feel OK with a shutdown and see Trump’s efforts to improve govt and their lives being endangered by democrats who’s only policy is to be “anti-Trump”. They are bankrupt of counter ideas and proposals.
TRUMP Watch –
The meeting between US President Trump and South African President Ramaphosa turned out to be very interesting and very Trumpish.
As the topic of white genocide cam up, Ramaphosa was quick to dispel the ‘conspiracy’; but Trump very quickly told his aides to ‘roll the tape’ at which videos of black leaders in South Africa calling for the murder of whites (Boers) along with video of burial sites for whites killed in South Africa.
Ramaphosa, thoughtfully and quietly responded claiming that “this is not government policy,” adding that “our democracy allows for free expression” and reaffirmed that “our government is completely against” what President Trump was describing. Trump responded:
“You have hundreds of people, thousands of people trying to come into our country because they feel they’re going to be killed and their land is going to be confiscated, and you do have laws that were passed that give you the right to confiscate land.”
OBSERVATION - If foreign leaders haven’t figured it out, Trump will confront you to your face. The Prez of S Africa probably should have delayed or cancelled his visit since it occurred right when there was a great disturbance in the force as white S Africans were welcomed into the US to escape genocidal policies and actions.
China -
China says trade talks are progressing.
North/South Korea –
North Korea’s latest modern destroyer capsized while the shipyard launched it this morning. Korean leader Kim Jong Un described the failure as “absolute carelessness, irresponsibility and unscientific empiricism” and promised to punish those responsible. Kim gave the shipyard one month to repair and relaunch the vessel.
Phillipines –
China’s Coast Guard attacked a Philippines fisheries research vessel with water cannons and sideswiped the boat. China claims it took “control measures” due to an illegal presence at the Sandy Cay. The Philippines says its vessel was able to finish its mission despite the attack.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia is now fielding nuclear-tipped air-to-air missiles, per U.S. intel. Likely based on the R-37M, this Cold War-style weapon marks a rare and dangerous escalation in Moscow’s nuclear arsenal.
OBSERVATION
Interesting development, routine arming with these missiles. Designed as a weapon against perceived vast numbers of allied bombers in a Cold War scenario they are clearly obsolete in their function in modern warfare. One dangerous option would be that Russia may be considering modification to an air to ground role, like they have modified the use of S300 missiles from an ground to air to a ground to ground role.
As such, the R-37M could be a tactical nuke weapon against Ukraine and others.
Economic Impact –
G7 leaders -in a published statement- pledge to keep Russian assets frozen until the war ends and Moscow pays for the damage.They reaffirm support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and recovery, and warn of further sanctions if Russia rejects a ceasefire.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 80s with scattered showers and thundershowers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Couple days worth of stuff
Thurs - Ukraine’s air defense neutralized 112 Russian UAVs overnight, including 74 shot down and 38 jammed via electronic warfare. Russia launched 128 Shahed drones and decoys from multiple directions, along with one Iskander-M missile from Taganrog.
Russian losses per 22/05/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff
+870 men
+4 tanks
+5 AFVs
+32 artillery
23/5/25 Ukrainian air defense shot down 91 Shahed-type drones, 59 more were intercepted by electronic warfare means or crashed itself
Ukrainian drones struck deep into Russia overnight, with explosions reported in Moscow, the Moscow region, Tula, and Oryol.
Among the targets was the Bazalt defense plant — known for producing aerial bombs — which had already been hit in a previous UAV raid. In Tula, local authorities reported damage to industrial buildings.
Russian Ministry of Defense reported 105 drones were shot down overnight
2 explosions were reported in Odesa. Ballistic missile strikes
Russian losses per 23/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1050 men
+2 tanks
+1 AFV
+43 artillery
+2 MLRS
Summary —
These low casualty numbers continue to amaze me, not seeing such levels in over a year, at least. Same to with losses of tanks and other equipment. Russia just doesn’t appear to be pushing things very hard, and that is a warning that they may be trying to pool resources to resume a more concentrated offensive in other regions. Primary in that are the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. The goal is to capture enough territory to lay ‘claim’ to the whole oblast as Russian in any peace/ceasefire talks.
AFA said peace talks, Russia continues to consider the Ukraine govt as illegitimate.
Other commentary out of Moscow is indicating that Russia considers the breakup of the former Soviet Union to have been illegal / illegitimate, driving territorial claims over Belarus, Ukraine, the Baltic nations, etc.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Security at embassies world wide increased
- Netanyahu rebukes European demands to stop fighting.
- Hezbollah targets hit
- Houthi missile fires most rockets in 24 hour period in days.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Security will be boosted at Israeli embassies worldwide following the fatal shooting of two Israeli embassy staff members outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who instructed the increase of security at Israeli diplomatic missions worldwide, condemned the terrorist attack and stressed that it was a result of antisemitic and anti-Israel incitement.
***
The Israeli army on Wednesday fired shots at a delegation of regional, European and Western diplomats visiting the West Bank city of Jenin, sparking condemnations from the Palestinian Authority and several European capitals. An IDF statement said its troops fired “warning shots” and that the delegation “deviated from the approved route”. No one was injured in the incident.
NOTE - One doesn’t just wander around hazardous areas under military control unless trying to provoke an incident like this.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
The Israeli army issues a wide evacuation warning for the northern Gaza Strip, as part of its new offensive against Hamas. In a post on X, the Israeli army’s Arabic-language spokesman, Colonel Avichay Adraee, calls for Palestinians residing in Sheikh Zayed, Salatin, Beit Lahiya, Jabalia, and nearby towns to evacuate south. The IDF’s 162nd Division is currently operating in some of these areas with three maneuvering brigades - and therefore it is reasonable to assume that the evacuation indicates the expansion of the division’s ground operations in the area
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
After midnight, Israeli aircraft launched successive raids on areas south of Tyre, Wadi al-Aziziya, and Deir Antar in the Bint Jbeil district, one of which was described as the most violent
IDF Spokesperson:
The IDF recently attacked a military site containing rocket launchers and weapons in the Beqaa Valley with fighter jets. Hezbollah terrorist organization activity was detected at the site. In addition, terrorist infrastructure, rocket launchers, and missiles of the Hezbollah terrorist organization were attacked in the southern Lebanon area.
At least 4 additional attacks at this moment in southern Lebanon, intense explosions are heard in the Upper Galilee.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian Presidency: The President pointed out that Israeli interventions are affecting Syria, and the European Union must work to stop them.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
See provocative actions of European and Western diplomats visiting Jenin above.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Saudi Al-Hadath Channel: Massive explosion at Houthi weapons depot northeast of capital Sanaa. According to the report, dozens of people were killed and injured at the scene of the explosion in Yemen.
Yemeni government’s Minister of Information, Ammar al-Iryani, said that the explosion in Sanaa, which occurred earlier this evening near the airport, was caused by a failed missile launch by the Houthis.
In the last 24 hours, the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have launched at least three medium to long-range ballistic missiles at Central Israel, all of which have been intercepted by either the Israel Defense Force or U.S. Army.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Gaza operations continue to ramp up as more evacuation orders even and IDF increases its foot print. As expected, global anti-israel elements and govts are increasingly shrill in their demands Israel stop, while completely giving Hamas a mulligan for continuation of hostage holding.
Lebanon got a kick with Israel hitting ammo dumps and Hezbollah HQs.
The Houthis have apparently been able to reconstitute their ballistic missile forces to increase shots at Israel. It is highly likely that they are also reconstituting their anti-shipping armaments as well. Israel may soon pay another visit to Yemen. Only real way to completely stop this is from the ground. The month plus long US air attacks have severely degraded Houthi capabilities, but ones and twos of ballistic missiles can be hidden across the territory, very difficult to detect and take out. Hopefully the opposition forces are able to move in on them and put the Houthi’s out of power.
A lot of rumblings regarding Iran. IMHO, Israel is giving the US/Trump time to ‘negotiate’ a deal, who’s components match Israel’s strategic goals.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region.
New round of talks are on, but Iran is refusing to eliminated enrichment, and the US is refusing to allow any. This may be the last round of talks unless one side or the other compromises.
Again, US forces in the region are nearing a point of decreased readiness and will soon need forces to relieve them. Can’t keep the hammer cocked for too long.
Turkey –
Israel and Turkey have established a special communication line to prevent friction and military clashes in Syria. The two countries have been holding talks and meetings in Azerbaijan since April.