CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***
FOLLOW UP -
Dan Bongino of the FBI announced on Tuesday that the agency has opened an investigation into “allegations of targetd violence against religious groups at the Seattle concert.” This follows an incident on Sunday in which Mayday USA, a Christian group, held a permitted concert in Cal Anderson Park which drew Antifa counter-protesters who then attacked the Christians.
Following the attack, Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell condemned the Christian group who was attacked, claiming that they were “far-right” and had no business holding an event in the park due to its proximity to the locus of the LGBTQ+ community. 23 arrests were made among the militants who showed up to harass the Christian event.
RELATED
Seattle City Hall was flooded with Christians for yesterday’s rally. Despite the political violence from Antifa and trans activists, as well as a condemnation from Mayor Harrell — the group of Christians say they will not be stopped from worshipping in the city.
SeattlePD made a secure exit for attendees to safety leave, preventing any further potential attacks.
The protesters ran around the building and hurled abuse at the group of Christians as they left. Many antifa were arrested.
OBSERVATION - I noted yesterday that I expected Antifa / Transtifa to try to target participants after the rally was over and was not disappointed in my analysis. There were reports that a few attendees were separated out and harassed, but the police effort to prevent this mostly worked.
Now, with some deeper looks by the FBI, pressure on the city may increase enough to shift some support away from Antifa for the short term. Seattle police union issued a statement a couple days ago that it will not tolerate the excesses granted. This is a reflection of a growing number of residents getting tired of Antifa running the show and the wide spread crime associated with them.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Sunday issued a warning to Jews and Israelis in Canada, urging them to exercise caution in response to “calls for violence” emanating from anti-Israel rallies.
The NSC increased its travel alert to a level 2 (potential threat level), citing an “increased threat by terrorists against Israelis and Jews in Canada.”
“In the past 18 months, there have been several attacks against Jewish institutions and centers, including shooting incidents, Molotov cocktails, and threats against Israelis/Jews in the country,” they detailed, according to the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office (PMO).
OBSERVATION - Canada is just across the border to our north and one can be certain the same planning is ongoing here. Two recent acts of terror already. These pro-Hamas rallies here are centered on university and college campuses. They will continue to set conditions encouraging more acts of violence and terror against Jews in America.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Consumer confidence increased in May, results of the Conference Board’s much-watched Consumer Confidence Index released Tuesday reveal.
At 98.0, the May index is up 12.3 points from the previous month’s level and just two points shy of the benchmark of 100.0. The improvement in consumer confidence was broad-based, spanning all age, income, and political affiliation groups.
An index of consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions also improved, increasing 4.8 points to 135.9.
The most significant improvement was in the index for consumer expectations, which the Conference Board says “surged 17.4 points to 72.8.” While the Expectations Index remained below the benchmark threshold of 80.0, all three components – expectations for income, business and the labor market – improved from the previous month.
The improvement in consumer confidence began before the U.S.-China trade deal, which averted the “reciprocal tariffs” President Donald Trump had threatened to impose on Chinese goods, and intensified after the deal’s announcement on May 12.
https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/consumer-confidence-enjoys-broad-based-improvement-may
OBSERVATION - Though subjective in many ways, the report identifies that consumers are seeing things improving and are expecting more of the same. This runs greatly contrary to the leftist democrat narrative that the economy is being trashed by Trump policies.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Using commercial satellite imagery, observers have noted the U.S. Air Force has recently augmented its aerial refueling capabilities at Diego Garcia, deploying additional KC-135 Stratotankers to the strategic Indian Ocean base.
OBSERVATION - This is an indicator that action may soon be on the way. Could also indicate that the previous refuelers may soon leave as part of a force rotation.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
Danger Will Robinson - new contagious version of wuhan present in China and going global. (/sarc)
POLITICAL FRONT –
During a press conference today, Governor DeSantis addressed the failure of Congress to enact one DOGE suggested cut. Elon Musk and his DOGE team found over 900 billion dollars in cuts. Congress has not followed up on even one.
This is the key section of Governor De Santis’s comments which also spoke to successes in Florida:
“Trillion dollar deficit is a tax on you. It works its way through the economy. There’s no free lunch, and that’s what ends up happening. And it’s a little frustrating.
“You know, Elon Musk went into this DOGE effort. He was getting lampooned, I mean, like they’re fire bombing his Tesla dealerships, media smearing him relentlessly. His businesses suffered. All this stuff because he basically said, Look, we can’t keep doing this, and we need to moderate and reduce the amount of money that the federal government is spending.
“And yet we have a Republican Congress, and to this day, we’re in the the end of May, past Memorial Day, and not one cent in DOGE cuts have been implemented by the Congress. That’s one of the reasons why we need a Balanced Budget Amendment to the US Constitution. It’s another reason why we need term limits for members of Congress.”
https://www.independentsentinel.com/congress-failed-to-enact-any-of-the-nearly-1t-doge-cuts/
OBSERVATION - Musk has also remarked negatively on the bill for the same reason. This congress has been excessively do nothing while taking more time off than ever to avoid doing the people’s work and supporting Trump. They are snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory again.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump on Truth Social: What Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD. He’s playing with fire!
Illegal Immigration –
San Diego Soft Sided Facility, which houses 1,000 illegals, has announced it’s closing. With a daily average arrest of just 38 illegals a day, they’ve decided they no longer need the facility. This was a 186% drop compared to March of 2024.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Russia’s Baltic Fleet has launched a large-scale naval exercise in the Baltic Sea, the military confirmed Tuesday. The drills will include over 20 vessels, such as a frigate, corvettes, minesweepers, and small missile and anti-submarine ships.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Following Trump’s “REALLY BAD” statement, Russia warned the US about its ‘really bad’ scenario, threatening WW3.
RUMINT-
Putin’s betting on a big summer offensive — still convinced he can win. The main push is expected in Donetsk, toward Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, while 125,000 troops mass near Sumy and Kharkiv. Ukraine’s bracing for defense. This might be Russia’s last real shot.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 80s mostly clear with scattered thunderstorms.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
On the night of May 28, Ukrainian air defense neutralized 71 out of 88 Russian Shahed drones. Russia also launched Iskander-M & Kh-59/69 missiles from Kursk, Voronezh, and occupied Crimea. Strikes were recorded in 8 locations. Sloviansk was attacked with Shahed-type drones
Russian losses per 28/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1050 men
+4 tanks
+2 AFVs
+18 artillery
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Kostiantynivka of Sumy region and Zelene Pole of Donetsk region of Ukraine
115 Ukrainian drones reportedly struck targets deep in Russia overnight. Kronshtadt UAV factory near Moscow and the Elma technopark—key centers for Russian drone and microelectronics production—were hit, according to Russian media.
A major fire can be seen burning at the Kronshtadt Production and Dubna Machine-Building Plant in the town of Dubna to the north of Moscow, which produces both drones and cruise missiles for the Russian Armed Force, following this morning’s large-scale drone attack by Ukraine.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down 296 drones overnight
Kursk -
In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 32 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports
Summary —
The continued lowered Russian losses would feed into a form of a tactical pause that would permit Russia to reassemble a strike force to engage in a more aggressive summer offensive (see Russia above) However, scraping 125K in one sector seems rather high, though the idea of pressing towards Sumy and Kharkiv is strategically sound according to Russian goals. Many of these troops likely syphoned off from operations to regain Kursk. Lowered attack tempo across the rest of the front would also permit replacements to be concentrated there versus other sectors.
Interesting wild card is the range limits for NATO deep strike systems could come into play as the assembly areas for these Russia forces would be well within range. Cluster bomb ATACMS hitting deep troop assemblies could wreak havoc.
Ukraine has gotten in some good, solid strikes on Russian targets overnight, including setting fire to a major Russian drone / missile plant in Kronshtadt. Ukraine drones also hit other key sites. On the Russia side, Shahed style attacks were down, allowing Ukraine ADA assets to be more effective and not overwhelmed as of late.
Ceasefire talks are still in the mud, don’t wait for anything to happen short term.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- IAF hit Sana International Airport, destroying the remaining airliner/cargo jet the Houthi had available to them.
- US organized relief distribution began yesterday. Hamas attempted to block and small riot broke out.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Deployment:
- Division 162 to dominate northern Gaza.
- Divisions 36 & 98 to operate in Khan Yunis.
- Division 252 to control the central Strip.
- Division 143 to maintain operations in Rafah, the buffer zone, and the Gaza envelope.
The IDF currently holds over 40% of Gaza, with plans to secure 75% within two months, per the IDF Spokesperson.
***
A group called the “Counter-Terrorism Apparatus,” led by Yasser Abu Shabab and operating under IDF protection in Rafah’s Jargun Palace, released photos from the local aid center claiming Gazans are receiving assistance.
Abu Shabab commands an armed militia backed by both the Palestinian Authority and Israel, made up of around 150 fighters, mostly former PA members, and based in Rafah’s Netzer neighborhood. They secure convoys along the Morag axis and conduct advance patrols ahead of IDF movements to expose “resistance” operatives, effectively aiding Israel in its war against Hamxs.
The group coordinates with Israeli and American officials, and critics claim their role in aid distribution is part of a broader plan to pave the way for mass displacement.
***
A UN operated relief convoy was ambushed by Hamas and a number of trucks were captured and looted.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli army announced the assassination of a member of Hezbollah’s “Radwan” unit in yesterday’s raid in Majdal Zun, southern Lebanon.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The IDF says a medical facility it set up in southern Syria, next to the Druze village of Hader, has so far treated over 500 Syrians. The “forward mobile triage” was established several weeks ago, amid the IDF’s ongoing operations in southern Syria, and is intended to treat Syrian Druze in the area, the military says.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Israeli Air Force carried out several precision-strikes this morning against what remained of Sana’a International Airport in the Houthi-controlled capital of Western Yemen. With the Israel Defense Force (IDF) confirming that strikes targeted infrastructure at the airport as well as an aircraft used by the Houthis “to transport terrorists who advanced terror attacks on Israel.”
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1927643600268992955?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Houthi media: 4 airstrikes targeted Sana’a airport runway and a Yemenia Airlines plane.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
EU Foreign Affairs Spokesperson: We renew our call for immediate and unhindered aid delivery to Gaza.
British Foreign Office: Depriving Gazans of essential aid is unacceptable and constitutes a violation of international humanitarian law.
Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani: “The IDF’s attacks on Gaza must be stopped immediately. We are ready to help maintain peace under Arab leadership.”
Germany’s foreign minister threatened unspecified measures against Israel on Tuesday and said Berlin would not export weapons used to break humanitarian law, as he and Chancellor Friedrich Merz delivered their most severe rebuke yet over Gaza.
OVERALL OBSERVATION - Yesterday Hamas attempted to prevent Gazans from receiving food from the US/Israel distribution sites. No word about Hamas blocking (or stealing) aid.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Gaza operations continue relatively unhindered by Hamas.
Biggest item is the new set up for distribution of food and other aid. As noted, Hamas is trying to prevent aid from getting to Gazans, bypassing their schemes. The small riot that occurred as several hundred pressed across lines was quickly and relatively easily handled. This operation is expected to grow. Key item here is removing Hamas from the mix as they’ve stolen the vast amount of aid that has been allowed into the country and selling it back to the Gazans at exorbitant prices. Hamas-free distribution strips power from them and encourages Gazans to move into the designated safe areas so that the IDF can more quickly move into current Hamas controlled sectors of Gaza.
The use of the Abu Shabab militia for distribution defense is also a good call, puts a ‘palestinian’ face on the distribution of good, and not necessarily a US or Israeli.
Hezbollah leaders continued to be exterminated in S Lebanon.
Tension builds to a potential strike against Iran should the nuclear talks stay stuck in the mud.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region.
Increase in air refueling tankers at Diego Garcia is worth watching. They can not only handle US aircraft, but Israeli as well. There are other bombers in the Western Pacific region that could call on their services as well.
Trump remains optimistic, but he better remember how they danced around during his first term.
Syria -
(ISW). Salafi-jihadi groups, such as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), have increased their activity in Syria in May 2025. A Syrian Interior Ministry spokesperson noted the increase in activity after three recent raids targeting ISIS cells in May.
“Dan Bongino of the FBI announced on Tuesday that the agency has opened an investigation into “allegations of targetd violence against religious groups at the Seattle concert.” This follows an incident on Sunday in which Mayday USA, a Christian group, held a permitted concert in Cal Anderson Park which drew Antifa counter-protesters who then attacked the Christians.
Following the attack, Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell condemned the Christian group who was attacked, claiming that they were “far-right” and had no business holding an event in the park due to its proximity to the locus of the LGBTQ+ community. 23 arrests were made among the militants who showed up to harass the Christian event.”
Dan Bongino’s a good man - he’s not going to fall for this crap...
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***
The Democratic Socialists of America call to free “political prisoner” Elias Rodriguez, the Jewish museum shooter who kiIIed two Americans in DC last week.
OBSERVATION - IIRC, AOC is a member of this democrat offshoot. This declaration is also a declaration against America as Rodriguez also posted a lot about destroying America.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
(FO) According to the Defense Intelligence Agency’s (DIA) recently released 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment, the DIA assesses that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) will probably attempt high profile attacks in the west over the next year.
OBSERVATIONS (FO) Former CIA analyst and targeter Sarah Adams has been predicting a “9/11 2.0” featuring Mumbai-style swarm attack against a highly populated area like a stadium or event venue. It’s at least feasible that dozens or hundreds of foreign terrorists have slipped in through the previously-porous southern border.
POLITICAL FRONT –
There is no evidence that former President Joe Biden knew of at least eight climate-related executive actions he supposedly signed during office, according to a pro-American energy watchdog group.
Power the Future, a nonprofit organization founded by energy expert Daniel Turner, released a report this week revealing “troubling” implications about several significant actions from the previous administration, especially given the recent reports that most of the official documents Biden signed during his time were via autopen signature.
OBSERVATION - The AutoPen scandal continues to grow and casts growing darkness of the legality and constitutionality of EOs and other official documents put forth by the administration.
***
In the coming days, legacy media will try to convince you that President Trump and Elon Musk are no longer friends and that’s why Musk left.
What they won’t tell you is that Elon was a Special Government Employee, limited to 130 days of service and that term ends tomorrow.
***
Congress is putting in fewer hours per week than Trump does in a single day.
TRUMP Watch –
Putting my combined comments here. Trump is failing on three major foreign policy matters - Russia, Gaza and Iran. What concerns me further is the silence from his foreign policy team (excluding Witkoff) on his recent statements.
He has talked bigly, yet is failing epically to keep his word, encouraging our opponents to increase their belligerence and making the world less safe. His track is very similar to many efforts done during his first term. I hope he is going to turn the corner here very soon.
China -
US Sec State Rubio announces visas for Chinese foreign students in the US are to be revoked.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Trump tells reporters that U.S. will find out “within two weeks” whether or not Putin is “tapping us along”
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 80s mostly clear with scattered thunderstorms.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 Shahed-type drones, 46 more were intercepted by electronic warfare means. In total Russia launched 90 drones. Strikes targeted frontline areas in Sumy, Kharkiv & Donetsk regions.
Russian losses per 29/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1050 men
+1 AFV
+31 artillery
Summary —
Drone strikes continue at a lowered pace as too Russian casualties. This is interesting given that Russia as taken ground the past couple weeks and did so with much lower losses. Also note way, way lower Russian armor and other vehicle losses.
I can’t account for current Russia successes at lowered losses, unless Ukraine is conducting and economy of force operations to build reserves to counter what they expect to be a major offensive towards Sumy and Kharkiv in the coming month.
Analysts considering this offensive suggest this could be Russia’s last big play on the ground that would consume most of its remaining reserves of people, armor and other equipment. Russian storage facilities are just about out of armor they can supply to the front and factories unable to make up the difference. Even at lowered combat rates, 1000 losses / day still equates to 30,000 per month - a figure only slightly lower than Russia resupply rates. putin did increase the number of conscripts for this year, but only by about 20K, hardly enough to mount a big invasion.
Some of the personnel needed are still being supplied by N Korea, though numbers are not very significant. With it, NK is supplying armor, artillery and munitions. Still hard to see Russia scraping up 150K men and equipment in a short term.
Does Russia have a trick up its sleeve? Time will tell.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level warnings have been removed as conditions appear to have returned to pre-combat and pre terror incident levels. May 25, 2025
(FO) India and Pakistan are both increasing their purchases of military air platform purchases in response to their recent border conflict. Pakistan is consulting Turkey and China to increase its native unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) production. India is investing $4.6 billion in its own manned fighter aircraft and UAV production.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- New hostage deal?
- Potential US/Iran nuclear deal
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Reports of a new Witkoff proposal Hamas is claiming to agreeing to -
- On the first day, 5 live hostages and 9 dead hostages will be released.
- On the seventh day, 5 live and 9 dead hostages will also be released.
- President Trump will declare a ceasefire and guarantee that the parties respect the deal.
- Israel will immediately stop all offensive military operations in Gaza.
- Israel will release in exchange for the ten live hostages: 125 life prisoners, 1,111 Gazan prisoners who were arrested after October 7.
- In exchange for the 18 dead hostages - Israel will release 180 bodies of Gazans, also in two stages.
- On the tenth day, Hamas will deliver a complete list that includes a detailed medical report on the condition of the living hostages in Gaza.
- The US, Egypt and Qatar will be guarantors of the ceasefire - and envoy Witkoff will arrive in the region to finally close the details of the deal.
***
Trump confirms he told Netanyahu an attack on Iran right now will be inappropriate because the U.S. and Iran are close to a nuclear deal
***
Israel’s innovative “Iron Beam” laser air defense system has been successfully tested:
The “Magen Or” defense system succeeded in intercepting at least 4 Hezbollah drones during the fighting with the Iranian backed Lebanese terror group.
OBSERVATION - Drone warfare is fast becoming the cutting edge battlefield weapon of choice. Modern air defense systems are generally very costly in comparison to the cheap drone. Drone defense is the latest arms race golden ring.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
A Gazan mob broke into Hamas’ al-Jafari warehouses at the entrance to the al-Maghazi refugee camp in the center of the Gaza Strip, where Hamas stores its flour stockpiles, and emptied it. Hamas terrorists shot dead 5 civilians who broke into it. The IDF spokesman in Arabic, Col. Avichai Adraee, published the footage of the incident and harshly attacked the terrorist organization: “For months, Hamas tried to spread the lie of famine, only to discover that it itself had hidden tons of flour. May God take revenge on you, infidels.”
I’m sure there are many more such warehouses.
***
1,688,148 meals distributed by GHF today in three separate locations.
Each package provides food for 5.5 people for one week:
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah statement:
“We once again call on the Arab and Islamic peoples and countries to stand by the Yemeni people and support their courageous stance in support of Palestine and its people”
OBSERVATION - The once ‘mighty’ Hezbollah reduced to meaningless statements of support.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Netanyahu reportedly approving 20 new settlements in the Judea and Samaria region.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
If true, this Witkoff deal is the worst one ever. Shows for starters the US ignores its own red lines. Second, it capitulates to Hamas at a time where it is at its weakest. Third, it pulls the carpet out from under Israel’s policy. The fact that Hamas is begging for such a deal shows just how desperate it is for another ceasefire with which to reorganize itself. One aspect that will be hard for Hamas to accept is the drastically lowered numbers of in-prisoned terrorists being released - about 1/10th the ratio of previous exchanges. It also doesn’t force Israel to leave Gaza, only stop combat. Another hard red line of Hamas.
Hamas, of course, will announce acceptance of this plan, and then proceed to redefine its terms. Netanyahu will be hard pressed to accept this plan. Israel is full on its current operation, with 5 divisions and several separate brigades putting the firepower on Hamas. In two months they could see more reduction of Hamas than this plan can provide.
Critical to Hamas’ plan is to force the distribution of food back to the UN where they can steal more and more of it to sell to the Gazans and fund their operations. The US operated distribution seems to be cutting a big hole into support for Hamas. Add to this the Gazans breaking into a large Hamas warehouse full of flour. . . . Well the international crowd should shut up about this so called famine. The food weapon is being turned against Hamas as their fat, well maintained “leaders” from outside Gaza tell them to starve to death for the cause.
On the ground, IDF continues to chew up Hamas held terrain.
On Iran, Witkoff’s negotiations are rumored to be going south as well - see Iran below.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.
Iran may agree to temporarily halt nuclear enrichment if the U.S. formally recognizes its right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes.
Iranian officials told Reuters today that their condition for halting uranium enrichment is the release of frozen U.S. funds and U.S. recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes.
***
Member of the Iranian Parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Security Committee Threatens: “We Have 300 Kilograms of enriched Uranium, That’s the Equivalent of 10 Bombs”
(Shahar Kleiman)
Iranian nuclear scientist Fereydoon Abbasi:
“Iran can produce a small device powerful enough to destroy an entire military base without being classified as a weapon of mass destruction. “
He added that “the Zionists have a chance to leave now” and that “whoever stays should be eliminated.”
https://x.com/osint613/status/1927685448710697052?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
CNN:
The US and Iran are very close to a nuclear agreement - and may close it at the next meeting between the parties.
It appears: The agreement will not require Iran to completely stop uranium enrichment, and will incorporate American supervision of facilities in Iran.
In addition, Iran’s missile project and support for terrorist organizations are not included in the discussions
OBSERVATION - CNN is questionable at this stage pending verification by other sources If this report is true, then it is a major concession by the US and essentially grants Iran most of its demands. Some suggest this is an interim agreement as talks progress towards a final.
Sadly, if this it Trump’s “Art of the Deal”, the world will quickly become a much less safer place. Iran is at its weakest now than it has in decades. It also increases the probability of an Israeli strike without US support.
OVERALL ASSESSMENTS - First numerous threats by Iran implying they may already have a ‘small’ weapon or close to it. This represents an escalation of the nuclear rhetoric by Iran which may fuel Israeli justification for an independent strike.
Second, it this agreement is valid, the US has folded on all key requirements and increased the probability that Israel will act independently. Source for this ‘agreement’ has credibility problems, which can provide some hope. But if true, this would be one of Trump’s worst foreign policy failures - eclipsing that peace effort between Ukraine and Russia.
Key indicator to watch is if US pulls back forces from the region. As of yet, the only indicator is that more air tankers have arrived on Diego Garcia, suggesting preparedness to fuel hungry fighters and bombers.
Misc of Note –
Fire season is already hitting regions of the west and southwest. Take precautions now to fire safe your home if you live in your bug out location or regular home in a woodland/urban interface region.
For you on the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, NOAA is crunching the numbers for the hurricane season. Get ready now.