CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***
The Democratic Socialists of America call to free “political prisoner” Elias Rodriguez, the Jewish museum shooter who kiIIed two Americans in DC last week.
OBSERVATION - IIRC, AOC is a member of this democrat offshoot. This declaration is also a declaration against America as Rodriguez also posted a lot about destroying America.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
(FO) According to the Defense Intelligence Agency’s (DIA) recently released 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment, the DIA assesses that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) will probably attempt high profile attacks in the west over the next year.
OBSERVATIONS (FO) Former CIA analyst and targeter Sarah Adams has been predicting a “9/11 2.0” featuring Mumbai-style swarm attack against a highly populated area like a stadium or event venue. It’s at least feasible that dozens or hundreds of foreign terrorists have slipped in through the previously-porous southern border.
POLITICAL FRONT –
There is no evidence that former President Joe Biden knew of at least eight climate-related executive actions he supposedly signed during office, according to a pro-American energy watchdog group.
Power the Future, a nonprofit organization founded by energy expert Daniel Turner, released a report this week revealing “troubling” implications about several significant actions from the previous administration, especially given the recent reports that most of the official documents Biden signed during his time were via autopen signature.
OBSERVATION - The AutoPen scandal continues to grow and casts growing darkness of the legality and constitutionality of EOs and other official documents put forth by the administration.
***
In the coming days, legacy media will try to convince you that President Trump and Elon Musk are no longer friends and that’s why Musk left.
What they won’t tell you is that Elon was a Special Government Employee, limited to 130 days of service and that term ends tomorrow.
***
Congress is putting in fewer hours per week than Trump does in a single day.
TRUMP Watch –
Putting my combined comments here. Trump is failing on three major foreign policy matters - Russia, Gaza and Iran. What concerns me further is the silence from his foreign policy team (excluding Witkoff) on his recent statements.
He has talked bigly, yet is failing epically to keep his word, encouraging our opponents to increase their belligerence and making the world less safe. His track is very similar to many efforts done during his first term. I hope he is going to turn the corner here very soon.
China -
US Sec State Rubio announces visas for Chinese foreign students in the US are to be revoked.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Trump tells reporters that U.S. will find out “within two weeks” whether or not Putin is “tapping us along”
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 80s mostly clear with scattered thunderstorms.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 Shahed-type drones, 46 more were intercepted by electronic warfare means. In total Russia launched 90 drones. Strikes targeted frontline areas in Sumy, Kharkiv & Donetsk regions.
Russian losses per 29/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1050 men
+1 AFV
+31 artillery
Summary —
Drone strikes continue at a lowered pace as too Russian casualties. This is interesting given that Russia as taken ground the past couple weeks and did so with much lower losses. Also note way, way lower Russian armor and other vehicle losses.
I can’t account for current Russia successes at lowered losses, unless Ukraine is conducting and economy of force operations to build reserves to counter what they expect to be a major offensive towards Sumy and Kharkiv in the coming month.
Analysts considering this offensive suggest this could be Russia’s last big play on the ground that would consume most of its remaining reserves of people, armor and other equipment. Russian storage facilities are just about out of armor they can supply to the front and factories unable to make up the difference. Even at lowered combat rates, 1000 losses / day still equates to 30,000 per month - a figure only slightly lower than Russia resupply rates. putin did increase the number of conscripts for this year, but only by about 20K, hardly enough to mount a big invasion.
Some of the personnel needed are still being supplied by N Korea, though numbers are not very significant. With it, NK is supplying armor, artillery and munitions. Still hard to see Russia scraping up 150K men and equipment in a short term.
Does Russia have a trick up its sleeve? Time will tell.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level warnings have been removed as conditions appear to have returned to pre-combat and pre terror incident levels. May 25, 2025
(FO) India and Pakistan are both increasing their purchases of military air platform purchases in response to their recent border conflict. Pakistan is consulting Turkey and China to increase its native unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) production. India is investing $4.6 billion in its own manned fighter aircraft and UAV production.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- New hostage deal?
- Potential US/Iran nuclear deal
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Reports of a new Witkoff proposal Hamas is claiming to agreeing to -
- On the first day, 5 live hostages and 9 dead hostages will be released.
- On the seventh day, 5 live and 9 dead hostages will also be released.
- President Trump will declare a ceasefire and guarantee that the parties respect the deal.
- Israel will immediately stop all offensive military operations in Gaza.
- Israel will release in exchange for the ten live hostages: 125 life prisoners, 1,111 Gazan prisoners who were arrested after October 7.
- In exchange for the 18 dead hostages - Israel will release 180 bodies of Gazans, also in two stages.
- On the tenth day, Hamas will deliver a complete list that includes a detailed medical report on the condition of the living hostages in Gaza.
- The US, Egypt and Qatar will be guarantors of the ceasefire - and envoy Witkoff will arrive in the region to finally close the details of the deal.
***
Trump confirms he told Netanyahu an attack on Iran right now will be inappropriate because the U.S. and Iran are close to a nuclear deal
***
Israel’s innovative “Iron Beam” laser air defense system has been successfully tested:
The “Magen Or” defense system succeeded in intercepting at least 4 Hezbollah drones during the fighting with the Iranian backed Lebanese terror group.
OBSERVATION - Drone warfare is fast becoming the cutting edge battlefield weapon of choice. Modern air defense systems are generally very costly in comparison to the cheap drone. Drone defense is the latest arms race golden ring.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
A Gazan mob broke into Hamas’ al-Jafari warehouses at the entrance to the al-Maghazi refugee camp in the center of the Gaza Strip, where Hamas stores its flour stockpiles, and emptied it. Hamas terrorists shot dead 5 civilians who broke into it. The IDF spokesman in Arabic, Col. Avichai Adraee, published the footage of the incident and harshly attacked the terrorist organization: “For months, Hamas tried to spread the lie of famine, only to discover that it itself had hidden tons of flour. May God take revenge on you, infidels.”
I’m sure there are many more such warehouses.
***
1,688,148 meals distributed by GHF today in three separate locations.
Each package provides food for 5.5 people for one week:
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah statement:
“We once again call on the Arab and Islamic peoples and countries to stand by the Yemeni people and support their courageous stance in support of Palestine and its people”
OBSERVATION - The once ‘mighty’ Hezbollah reduced to meaningless statements of support.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Netanyahu reportedly approving 20 new settlements in the Judea and Samaria region.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
If true, this Witkoff deal is the worst one ever. Shows for starters the US ignores its own red lines. Second, it capitulates to Hamas at a time where it is at its weakest. Third, it pulls the carpet out from under Israel’s policy. The fact that Hamas is begging for such a deal shows just how desperate it is for another ceasefire with which to reorganize itself. One aspect that will be hard for Hamas to accept is the drastically lowered numbers of in-prisoned terrorists being released - about 1/10th the ratio of previous exchanges. It also doesn’t force Israel to leave Gaza, only stop combat. Another hard red line of Hamas.
Hamas, of course, will announce acceptance of this plan, and then proceed to redefine its terms. Netanyahu will be hard pressed to accept this plan. Israel is full on its current operation, with 5 divisions and several separate brigades putting the firepower on Hamas. In two months they could see more reduction of Hamas than this plan can provide.
Critical to Hamas’ plan is to force the distribution of food back to the UN where they can steal more and more of it to sell to the Gazans and fund their operations. The US operated distribution seems to be cutting a big hole into support for Hamas. Add to this the Gazans breaking into a large Hamas warehouse full of flour. . . . Well the international crowd should shut up about this so called famine. The food weapon is being turned against Hamas as their fat, well maintained “leaders” from outside Gaza tell them to starve to death for the cause.
On the ground, IDF continues to chew up Hamas held terrain.
On Iran, Witkoff’s negotiations are rumored to be going south as well - see Iran below.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.
Iran may agree to temporarily halt nuclear enrichment if the U.S. formally recognizes its right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes.
Iranian officials told Reuters today that their condition for halting uranium enrichment is the release of frozen U.S. funds and U.S. recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes.
***
Member of the Iranian Parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Security Committee Threatens: “We Have 300 Kilograms of enriched Uranium, That’s the Equivalent of 10 Bombs”
(Shahar Kleiman)
Iranian nuclear scientist Fereydoon Abbasi:
“Iran can produce a small device powerful enough to destroy an entire military base without being classified as a weapon of mass destruction. “
He added that “the Zionists have a chance to leave now” and that “whoever stays should be eliminated.”
https://x.com/osint613/status/1927685448710697052?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
CNN:
The US and Iran are very close to a nuclear agreement - and may close it at the next meeting between the parties.
It appears: The agreement will not require Iran to completely stop uranium enrichment, and will incorporate American supervision of facilities in Iran.
In addition, Iran’s missile project and support for terrorist organizations are not included in the discussions
OBSERVATION - CNN is questionable at this stage pending verification by other sources If this report is true, then it is a major concession by the US and essentially grants Iran most of its demands. Some suggest this is an interim agreement as talks progress towards a final.
Sadly, if this it Trump’s “Art of the Deal”, the world will quickly become a much less safer place. Iran is at its weakest now than it has in decades. It also increases the probability of an Israeli strike without US support.
OVERALL ASSESSMENTS - First numerous threats by Iran implying they may already have a ‘small’ weapon or close to it. This represents an escalation of the nuclear rhetoric by Iran which may fuel Israeli justification for an independent strike.
Second, it this agreement is valid, the US has folded on all key requirements and increased the probability that Israel will act independently. Source for this ‘agreement’ has credibility problems, which can provide some hope. But if true, this would be one of Trump’s worst foreign policy failures - eclipsing that peace effort between Ukraine and Russia.
Key indicator to watch is if US pulls back forces from the region. As of yet, the only indicator is that more air tankers have arrived on Diego Garcia, suggesting preparedness to fuel hungry fighters and bombers.
Misc of Note –
Fire season is already hitting regions of the west and southwest. Take precautions now to fire safe your home if you live in your bug out location or regular home in a woodland/urban interface region.
For you on the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, NOAA is crunching the numbers for the hurricane season. Get ready now.
The auto pen mess could top Watergate. Want to know where the billions designated to go to 'building millions of charging stations' went? You know - where less than 20 charging stations were actually build?
That's why I appreciate President Trump signing the EO's and then showing them to the camera.
A Gazan mob broke into Hamas’ al-Jafari warehouses at the entrance to the al-Maghazi refugee camp in the center of the Gaza Strip, where Hamas stores its flour stockpiles, and emptied it. Hamas terrorists shot dead 5 civilians who broke into it. The IDF spokesman in Arabic, Col. Avichai Adraee, published the footage of the incident and harshly attacked the terrorist organization: “For months, Hamas tried to spread the lie of famine, only to discover that it itself had hidden tons of flour. May God take revenge on you, infidels.”
I’m sure there are many more such warehouses.
Terrorists to the core, even attacking their own people and stealing food from them and making them go hungry.
Done like true leftists.
They cannot be trusted and other muslims need to help eradicate them.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
(aka President Donald Trump on his 79th birthday )
***
Weekend fast coming upon us and projected protests appear to be rather tame. Numerous ‘banner’ type events. Nothing really stands out as potentially violent.
Never the less, if a protest is announced in your area, maintain situational awareness as things could spike with little warning.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Yesterday, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that President Trump’s “Worldwide and Retaliatory Tariffs” and “Trafficking Tariffs” on goods from Mexico and Canada exceed the authority delegated to him by Congress. The administration immediately appealed that ruling, and today it was stayed by the Federal Circuit pending further litigation. So the tariffs remain in place, for the moment.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/05/goodbye-tariffs.php
OBSERVATION - Another sector of Presidential powers rogue judges are attempting to interfere with. This is another fight the judiciary will lose but will provide a speed bump in trump’s planning and execution.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Unbelievable lack of work by congress, beginning to make biden’s 40% vacation time seem like a hard work schedule.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 24, 2025
- Threat status remains elevated due to potential US / Israeli strike on Iran and Iran using cyber attacks in response.
According to recent reports from Microsoft and the Dutch government, a new Russian state-backed hacking group called Void Blizzard or Laundry Bear is targeting NATO member critical infrastructure and industry. The reports said Void Blizzard has successfully managed to fly below the radar due to “living-off-the-land” attack methods.
Illegal Immigration –
The Department of Homeland Security is putting more than 500 “sanctuary jurisdictions” across the country on notice that the Trump administration views them as obstructing immigration enforcement as it attempts to increase pressure on communities it believes are standing in the way of the president’s mass deportations agenda.
The department on Thursday published a list of the jurisdictions and said each one will receive formal notification that the government has deemed them noncompliant and if they’re believed to be in violation of any federal criminal statutes. The list was published on the department’s website.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/dhs-immigration-donald-trump/2025/05/29/id/1212876/
OBSERVATION - A shot across the bow of the sanctuary movement. I wouldn’t want to cross DHS Secretary Kristi Noem at this stage.
China -
A new report claims that China has been showcasing its military might over the past month by deploying a significant number of naval and coast guard ships in the Pacific region, including aircraft carriers near Taiwan and Japan.
Reuters cited three regional security officials and regional military activity documents that indicate China deployed larger fleets of navy, coast guard, and other ships near Taiwan, the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the southern Japanese islands in recent weeks than the country typically deploys.
According to Reuters, regional military activity documents show that China deployed almost 60 ships on May 21 and over 70 ships on May 27. The outlet noted that roughly 75% of the ships deployed by China were naval ships, including destroyers, coast guard vessels, and guided-missile ships.
OBSERVATION - You build a big navy for a purpose - as a stick to back up your foreign policy goals. China has very little experience maneuvering a large naval force in combat. Thus additional deployments and exercises become even more necessary to make up that strategic short coming. China’s aggressiveness in claiming islands belonging by international treaty to other nations - especially the Philippines - is going to lead to a conflict of some sort in the near future.
***
China has warned the US over Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile shield plan, with Defense Ministry spokesman Zhang Xiaogang saying it could spark a space arms race and breach the Outer Space Treaty.
OBSERVATION - China over the course of the past year, has launched some very suspicious space missions that could be interpreted as developing an interceptor capability to hit US strategic recon satellites as well as Starlink systems. But best to accuse the other in order to keep your own space plans obscured.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 80s mostly clear with scattered thunderstorms.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 26 Shahed-type drones, 30 more were intercepted by electronic warfare means. In total Russia launched 90 Shahed-type drones and 2 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
Russian losses per 30/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1140 men
+1 tank
+2 AFVs
+35 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Kindrashivka of Kharkiv region of Ukraine
(ISW) Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kurakhove and Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Kupyansk, Borova, Lyman, and Pokrovsk.
Summary —
Relative calm in the drone wars arena.
On the ground, moderate action with gains and losses experienced by both sides. Observers noting increased fighting in the Sumy sector, could represent reconnaissance in preparation for the suspected renewed offensive in that sector.
Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia continue to be a joke.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said this week that NATO’s target for defense spending will likely be raised from 2% to 5% of a country’s GDP at next month’s summit. That plan could include spending 3.5% of GDP on “hard military spending” and 1.5% on infrastructure, cyber, and “other things.” Only 22 of the 32 members have reached the current 2% spending target.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas is rejecting the plan they reportedly accepted days ago.
- Ground activity in Gaza increases
- IAF continues preps to strike Iran.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Status of IDF operations -
•Khan Yunis (South Gaza): IDF forces have advanced past the European Hospital, deepening operations in the western part of the city.
•Al-Khuza’a (Southeast Gaza, near Khan Yunis): Clearing operations continue in this town near the border with Israel.
•Kissufim Axis (Central Gaza border area): The IDF is pushing south along this strategic route connecting Israeli territory to central Gaza.
•Beit Hanoun (Northeast Gaza): The city is now fully surrounded by Israeli forces.
•Qizan an-Najjar (South of Khan Yunis): Clearing operations are ongoing in this southern area near the Egyptian border.
https://x.com/osint613/status/1928367281714704817?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
Gazans report that Hamas operatives raided the American Field Hospital in Zawaida in central Gaza early this morning, and stole all the hospital’s contents, including the power generators
***
The IDF has issued evacuation order for very large areas in the northern Gaza Strip
***
Hamas official tells BBC: We reject the new Witkoff proposal. It does not meet our key demands, including an end to the war. The official added that Hamas will respond to the proposal “at the appropriate time.”
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Last night, Israeli warplanes struck a Hezbollah site in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley after detecting efforts to rebuild previously targeted infrastructure. The IDF says it will continue acting against threats and Hezbollah entrenchment.
IAF also hit targets in S Lebanon, including an ammo depot with large secondaries.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Israel’s army says it intercepted a missile launched from Yemen
Houthis military spokesman: We carried out a military operation targeting Lod Airport in the Jaffa area with a ballistic missile.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Countries like France continue to rebuke Israel over the ‘humanitarian’ aid claims, while being totally silent on the Hamas warehouses filled with multiple tons of wheat / flour that are being hoarded.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
True to form, Hamas is now rejecting the hostage / ceasefire plan they once said they agreed to. Typical MO for their negotiation style.
Possibly in response, Israel seems to have stepped up operations in Gaza to 1) gain as much as possible before any kind of ceasefire and 2) exert even more pressure on Hamas.
As of the time I write this, Hamas is a big NO on the hostage plan. This is good for Israel in it allows for justified continued operations in Gaza.
Lebanon felt IAF fury as Hezbollah targets were hit. Seems Hezbollah is trying to fly under the radar and reestablish storage facilities and bases taken out by Israel by not shooting at Israel. The eyes of Israel are everywhere in Lebanon and they probably let Hezbollah get a lot invested in these sites before blowing them up.
Syria is calm
Houthis launched another rocket at Israel, easily shot down.
Iran situation continues to heat up - see below
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region. Current status of window unknown.
Senior Israeli defense officials say a strike on Iran’s nuclear sites is “possible and necessary,” per Ynet. Israel has shared its “red lines” with the US, insisting on full dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program and enrichment sites.
OBSERVATION - US negotiation efforts may have finally reached the wall for even an interim agreement. Israeli firmly pushing back on the very 0bamaesque proposal that was put forth by Witkoff may have take hold. Possible round of talks this weekend may give clues to what the future may bring.
REMINDER - Israel destroyed Iraq’s and Syria’s nuclear ambitions contrary to US desires. They may well do the same with Trump, perhaps the reiterating the ‘red lines’ Israel has.
Trump has to fish or cut bait, and make that decision soon or events in the region outside his control will take over.
Syria -
ISIS has claimed its first direct attack on the Syrian army since the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
OBSERVATION - Interesting to see the response of the new Syrian president - a former ISIS leader - to these attacks.