Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

This could be a very busy week

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025

Puget Sound Anarchists, one of the Antifa cells in Seattle, has posted an after-action report following the domestic terrorist attack on the UW where they started fires and did over $1m in damage to science equipment and property.

“We can no longer afford to be simple protesters. We must become combatants”

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1921545327695331386?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - This is a growing trend in the Antifa core regions of the pacific nw. So far it doesn’t appear to be growing across the rest of the country.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

President Donald Trump announced he will be signing an executive order Monday to ensure the Americans pay the “lowest price anywhere in the world” for prescription drugs and pharmaceuticals.

Under the planned order, the federal government would tie what it pays pharmaceutical companies for those drugs to the price paid by a group of other, economically advanced countries — the so-called “most favored nation” approach.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/prices-drugs-pharma/2025/05/11/id/1210502/

OBSERVATION - This is designed to bring US prescription costs down to levels seen across much of the rest of the world, some cases by a whopping 80%. There is no reason a drug costs hundreds of dollars here in the US while the exact same drug sells for only tens of dollars (or less) overseas. I can guarantee the enforcement mechanism along with the order as well will be assaulted in court by Big Pharma.

***
Market futures are rebounding big in response to the China agreement.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Watching to see if the congress critters involved in last weeks riot at an ICE detention facility in NJ will be arrested or not.

TRUMP Watch –

US President Donald Trump on Sunday defended plans to receive a new luxury Boeing aircraft as a gift after media reported that he would receive an aircraft from Qatar’s royal family to replace the current Air Force One.

The Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet was described by the ABC News broadcaster in its scoop as a “flying palace,” saying it would possibly be the most costly present ever received by the US government.

Critics say acceptance of such a gift could violate strict rules on presents for US presidents and raise further questions regarding conflicts of interest with Trump’s family businesses and use of public office.

Laura Loomer, a far-right ally of Trump, said accepting the plane would be a “stain” on the administration.

“We cannot accept a $400 million ‘gift’ from jihadists in suits,” she posted on X. “The Qataris fund the same Iranian proxies in Hamas and Hezbollah who have murdered US Service Members.”

OBSERVATION -
Beware of Qataris bearing gifts. There are red flags all over this action. The whole thing, when viewed thru the lens of other activity in the middle east, is beginning to stink to high heaven. Qatar is a big terror supporter, hosting many highly placed Hamas billionaires and supporting other terrorists.
They may have sensed a chink in Trump - his ego - and a big, gold plated super executive jet in the place of the continueing to be botched AF1 upgraded B747 (order during his first term) maybe causing him to drool too much.

Key issues that have to be addressed

- Legality of such a ‘gift’

- If he wants to use it for AF1, how many electronic bugs have been hard embedded throughout the aircraft that could cause serious loss of intelligence secrets.

- Are there any hardware/software/firmware installed in flight ops system that could be remotely triggered to cause a crash. Much of the flight controls are computer controlled, fly by electronics, avionics.

- What is the quid pro quo the Qatar is potentially expecting? Protection of Hamas, Iran and other radical islamic forces in the region? Isolation of Israel?

Trump needs to take a second look at this and say ‘thanks but no thanks’. This deal looks too good to be true - and it likely is.

China -

The U.S. will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will lower tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10%.

This 90-day pause at lower rates maintains pressure while stabilizing capital markets that fund American innovation.

OBSERVATION - Trump maintains all the advantage and initiative in the current tariff war with China. In this case, strategic recalibration beats brute force: let Beijing sweat over whether tariffs snap back higher if they stall. Trump’s OODA loop in this case is operating faster than China can respond or plan. If China doesn’t respond in a manner to Trump’s liking, those tariffs can quickly be reinstalled.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Some analysis suggests that though weak, putin’s intransigence towards moving toward peace with Ukraine may be starting to put more backbone in the major European supporters of Ukraine and even bringing the US back into the resistance. One large storm that could hit Russia is the imposition of even more stringent economic sanctions that not only close existing loopholed, but make it even harder for Russia to gain other support. This may cause China to pull back some on its support as its economy is hurting from pre-existing problems that have been enlarged by the current tariff war with the US.

Zelensky’s willingness to move towards peace talks is gaining the traction globally vs putin. US reengagement in supplying military munitions over the course of last week is evidence of this and evidence that putin’s plans are no longer working to isolate Ukraine.

So far putin has rejected US/EU/Ukraine peace and ceasefire proposals.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with rain and showers.

Zelensky: We expect a ceasefire from tomorrow - complete and lasting, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy. There is no point in dragging out the killings. And I will wait for Putin on Thursday in Turkey. Personally. I hope that this time the Russians will not look for reasons why they cannot.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense team shot down 55 Shahed drones and landed another 30 drone simulators out of the 108 launched in total.

Russian losses per 12/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1170 men
+8 tanks
+27 AFVs
+48 artillery
+3 AD systems

Bloomberg reports Europe’s position remains unchanged: the Ukraine ceasefire is set to begin tomorrow, contingent on Russia’s agreement. If Russia launches attacks from that point, a strong response from the EU and US—including sanctions agreed on Saturday—is expected.

So far Putin continues to Putin reject the US-EU-UA 30-day ceasefire proposal

Summary —

Fighting overall remains pretty static. Moderate fighting noted and the standard daily Shahed attacks.

The big movement and action is on the geopolitical front. As Ive noted above, some of the propaganda tide may be turning against putin and his hard line has reinforced pushback by Ukraine supporters. putin is losing the initiative on this information / propaganda front.

Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025

Again - both govts are holding tight to censorship of key news from this conflict and putting out an abundance of misinformation. Any thing - even here - you read must be considered to be questionable to some extent.

***

Military movements and actions -

Ceasefire continues to hold.

Political actions -

India rejects the US mediation on behalf of Kashmir. “It’s a bilateral issue”, the Indian Government told the US.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -

A lot of speculation as to why the brakes were put on the exchanges between Pakistan and India - with the US involvement.
A large part of it centers around reports that India targeted Pakistani tactical nuclear weapons facilities and operational control sites.
Key related events -

- Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif summoned a meeting of the National Command Authority — Pakistan’s top body overseeing its nuclear arsenal.

- US intelligences notes actions of significance going on.

- Shortly thereafter, the ceasefire wheels got rolling.

OSINT and other observers are indicating that India hit next to Pakistan’s Nuclear Command HQ (warning shot).

India also reportedly struck Pakistani nuke storage sites at Sargodha, Jacobabad and a Kirana hills. Strikes in these area were confirmed by OSINT folks based on video’s / photos posted on social media and geospatial analyst. Unconfirmed reports of radiation leakage from at least one site.

According to other reports, Pakistan urged Trump to mediate after India bombed 11 Pak airbases

Further speculation. Pakistan, on the other hand, was left panicked to know that India in fact has knowledge about nuclear sites.

Those strikes by India pushed Pakistan to near the national survival threshold (for first nuclear strike requirements) and they were ready to push the button.
US intelligence may well have picked up on that action and triggered warnings.

India, was supposedly made aware of this by both USA & Pakistan.

India decided to agree to a ceasefire, not because of fear, but because of what was lying ahead - the potential of a nuclear exchange.

Again, a lot of speculation is behind this effort to connect the dots, but if true, the region was a lot closer to nuclear war than most viewed based upon the available information (myself included). This analysis has been based on several days now of sifting thru more reliant sources of information.

For now the conflict continues to spin down, though both sides are still prepped in war mode status and fighting could initiate very quickly.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Steve Witkoff informed the family of kidnapped Edan Alexander that the Hamas is expected to release him from captivity as a gesture to Trump.

- Israel states its current ultimatum still stands on hostage releases and that this will not stop operations in Gaza under “Gideon’s Chariots”

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Islamic Jihad’s (PIJ) deputy leader, Dr. Muhammad al-Hindi, says no more hostages will be released unless the U.S. forces Israel into a full ceasefire and withdrawal from Gaza.

He says the “resistance” is ready for an all-for-all deal or a phased agreement, but will not accept Israeli demands to disarm or expel leaders. He warns that surrendering arms would lead to the forced expulsion of Palestinians and accuses Israel of stalling talks to retrieve its captives without ending the war.

https://x.com/osint613/status/1921586860729545001?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***
Hamas also stated: The release of Idan Alexander will be part of efforts to achieve a ceasefire, open the crossings, and allow aid to reach our people in the Gaza Strip.

Witkoff is expected to arrive in Israel tomorrow (Monday).
The release of the hostage will be within 48 hours.

For the release of Edan Alexander - Israel will not release terrorists, but will open the way for humanitarian aid.

Hamxs is also concerned about a U.S.-backed plan to shift the aid distribution system—potentially cutting it off from a key source of influence. By releasing Idan Alexander, Hamxs aims to secure the immediate resumption of aid under its control, treating it not just as a humanitarian lifeline, but as a critical lever of power inside Gaza.

***
Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office:

The United States has informed Israel of Hamas’s intention to release soldier Edan Alexander as a gesture to the Americans, without any compensation or conditions.

The United States has informed Israel that this move is expected to lead to negotiations for the release of the hostages under the original Witkoff outline - which Israel has already accepted.

Israel is preparing for the possibility that this move will materialize.

According to Israeli policy, the negotiations will take place under fire with a commitment to achieving all war goals.

Translation: Hamas is trying to postpone the maneuver to occupy Gaza

Israel is holding firm to its ultimatum: if Hamxs doesn’t release 10 hostages before Trump leaves the Middle East, it will launch the next phase of the Gaza war, codenamed “Gideon’s Chariots.”

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

The IDF has withdrawn the Nahal Brigade from Judea and Samaria after three months to prepare for a major Gaza offensive.
As part of the 162nd Division, the brigade will join “Gideon’s Chariots,” a plan to take control of Gaza, move civilians south, strike Hamxs, and prevent it from seizing aid.

***
IDF forces continue operating across Gaza, targeting terror groups under the guidance of Military Intelligence, Southern Command, and the Shin Bet.

In the north, Division 252 is active; in the south, Division 143. Troops are locating and destroying terror infrastructure above and below ground, with Air Force support.
Targets included Hamas command centers, weapons stockpiles, sniper and observation posts threatening IDF forces in central Gaza.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

The Israeli Cabinet voted on Sunday to back a series of “revolutionary” measures aimed at stopping what it said was the Palestinian Authority-led takeover of lands in Judea and Samaria, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced.

Sunday night’s vote “nullifies the P.A.’s attempts to seize land in Area C and, under the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, will lead to an arrangement for registering land in Judea and Samaria,” stated Katz.

The move “will lead to the strengthening, consolidation and expansion” of Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria, he continued, adding that the current war proves that “settlement in Judea and Samaria is a defensive shield for population centers in the center of Israel.”

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-77/

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

IDF issues urgent warning to immediately evacuate 3 ports in Yemen, N12 News reports. Israeli strikes coming up. Looks like psychological warfare in Yemen, no strikes despite Israeli evacuation order last night

Houthi launched a ballistic missile at Israel from Yemen; the missile fell in Saudi Arabia

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas’ Strategy: Driving a Wedge Between the United States and Israel

The release of hostage Edan Alexander by Hamas was not solely for humanitarian or public relations purposes but was a calculated tactical move aimed at easing international pressure on the organization and creating a rift between the United States and Israel. Any delay in the Israeli operation benefits them.

Similar to the strategy employed by the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran, Hamas seeks to disrupt U.S. political and military cooperation with Israel in the Gaza campaign. By engaging in direct negotiations with the United States, Hamas aims to sideline Israel diplomatically, potentially pushing it toward unilateral and risky actions in the future.

Additionally, there is an effort to prevent Hamas from being excluded from getting their hands on food and other relief supplies. They have stolen much of what has been brought in, and placed in their warehouses for their war effort and selling on the black market to help fund their fighters. Hamas wants the terror compliant elements of the UN to handle things - so they can continue the thefts. If Israel is directly involved, Hamas will come up empty handed and will lose a tool of power projection onto the Gaza civilian population to keep them in line with the jihad.

Israel has made it pretty clear, Hamas has a very short window to comply with their demands. Its military is continuing to prepare for operations, to start very shortly after Trump leaves the region.

Israel also has the Houthi’s chasing their tails, with the recent evacuation warning for three ports, which were emptied by the Houthi. Now foreign ships wait off shore and uncertain rules whether or not to reopen them. Israel knows that lack of action is not good and that it takes some time to plan a strike some 2200 km away. They likely will hit one or all three later this week.

Israel in all of this is keeping their eyes on the big target - Iran.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region.

Iran MFA: “The fourth round of indirect Iran-U.S. negotiations is concluded; difficult but useful talks to better undetstand each other’s positions and to find reasonable & realistic ways to address the differences. Next round will be coordinated and announced by Oman.”

OBSERVATION - The post meeting commentary is essentially more of the same. No real movement except to agree to meet again. How much of this is building towards a decision by Trump to initiate a strike on Iran’s nuclear program? So far Iran has said a hard NO to every key element of Trump’s demands and he should realize that they are playing a similar game they did back during his first term. He may give them until next weekend’s meetings to make significant and real progress. All talk and no action by Trump only emboldens Iran.

Turkey –

The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) declared its dissolution and an end to its armed struggle against Turkey on Monday

OBSERVATION - This action may negate Turkey’s reason for invading N Syria. It is unlikely that they will withdraw and time soon.

Ah, snow in the Redoubt - the wonders of spring here.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.

NOTE - New leftist day to try to organize nation-wide protests and generate support to oppose Trump as well as a host of other issues. The past protests have been underwhelming in turnout and demographics (predominantly older Americans and in particular women) Watching as this builds

***
A coalition of Democrat governors resisting the Trump administration scheduled at least two Zoom discussions focused on how to avoid assisting National Guard “protections” and “deployments,” according to email correspondence obtained by The Daily Signal.

Executive order templates created for Democrat governors say the states “shall provide no time, money, facilities,” for any National Guard deployments if the governor doesn’t approve.

Governors Safeguarding Democracy—co-chaired by two Democrats, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Colorado Gov. Jared Polis—scheduled two Zoom meetings focused on the National Guard. One was on Dec. 12, more than a month after President Donald Trump was elected. The other was scheduled for Jan. 28, a few days after Trump’s inauguration.

https://www.dailysignal.com/2025/05/12/exclusive-anti-trump-governors-scheduled-briefings-on-national-guard-protections-deployments/

OBSERVATION - More information on a effort by blue state governors we already pretty much knew was happening. This is a precursor to direct, military confrontation if called for by these governors. They do hold a weakened hand in that the guard forces can be nationalized and control stripped from them if needed - see the civil rights era when Gov Wallace called up the Nat’l Guard to prevent desegregation and DC nationalized them.

***
In March, Texas authorities sent a cease-and-desist letter to EPIC demanding it stop funeral services, citing a lack of licensing. Paxton’s office also issued a Civil Investigative Demand to Community Capital Partners.

Last Friday, Texas Senator John Cornyn said that the Department of Justice had responded to his call to investigate potential ‘religious discrimination’ at Epic City.

If we are going to enforce the same rules for all religions, it seems very clear that building an Islamic city, Islamic mosques, and Muslim-only education centers for an entire Texas city would be “religious discrimination.”

https://notthebee.com/article/greg-abbott-announces-that-texas-has-halted-construction-on-islamic-epic-city

OBSERVATION - Those with eyes to see note that this Epic city effort by radical moslems is attempting to build upon momentum gained by islamic conclaves that have taken over Dearborne MI and Patterson NJ. It is following the standard, modern Islamic practice to defeat and subjugate countries via immigration, consolidation and pooling resources to take control of local govts - the expanding that power. BIG CASE IN POINT the present situation in England, where ANY criticism of moslems will get your thrown in jail, while they continue to rape, murder and commit other crimes.

In a future CW2 environment, these moslem controlled area will further complicate the ongoing balkanization of the US with groups clearly hostile towards US citizens and a jihadic willingness to commit to war to achieve an expansion of their power and control.

***
A “peaceful” protests lead by leftist so-called religious leaders devolved into clashes between federal agents and leftist protestors outside the ICE facility in Newark. This is the same facility that congress critters assaulted ICE and other federal officers and the mayor of Newark was arrested at over the weekend.

OBSERVATION - Some noting that the left is attempting to use targeted protests and associated violence at this facility in dark blue NJ to stir up other violent actions on other potential govt facilities, mostly immigration related.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

News of the 90 day pause in increased tariffs against China sent the market up yesterday.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

Studies now confirming that women who received the jab have lost as much as 60% of their eggs, creating a fertility crisis. I noted early on in the plandemic pre-release studies of the jab creating numerous complications to women’s reproductive ability from this to spontaneous abortions. Male fertility has been hit hard as well.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Civil war in the democrat hierarchy continues.

A committee within the Democratic National Committee has voted to void the results of a party vote that led to David Hogg becoming a party vice chair.

Per the New York Times, the credentials committee ruled that the election had not followed parliamentary procedures. The ruling came after one of the losing candidates, Kalyn Free, said the party had wrongly combined two questions into a single vote, which put defame candidates at a disadvantage due to the DNC’s gender parity rules.

The decision came after around three hours of internal debate and one vote that resulted in a tie. The issue now goes to the full body of the DNC. The DNC will decide whether to force Hogg and another vice chair, Malcolm Kenyatta, to run again in another election.

https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-dnc-moves-to-void-leadership-election-of-david-hogg-malcolm-kenyatta#google_vignette

RELATED - Democrats laying the foundation to have Senator Fetterman either be forced to resign or face being primaried out of office. Some are basing this on claims that continued brain damage from his stroke in 2022 are continuing to cloud his judgement.

OBSERVATION - Break out the popcorn. Democrats continue to spin in circles as there is no clear leadership that is recognized and the current inertia demand continued adherence to the policies and practices that contributed greatly to their loss in November. In Fetterman’s case, he is unwilling to tuck his tail and always vote party line.

TRUMP Watch –

President Donald Trump opened his four-day Middle East trip Tuesday by paying a visit to Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, for talks on U.S. efforts to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, end the war in Gaza, and more.

***
President Donald Trump on Monday raised the prospect of joining talks between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey on Thursday. “I was thinking about flying over. I don’t know where I’m going to be on Thursday

Illegal Immigration –

A federal judge on Monday refused to block the Internal Revenue Service from sharing immigrants’ tax data with Immigration and Customs Enforcement for the purpose of identifying and deporting people illegally in the U.S.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/irs-ice-tax-data-deportations-federal-judge/2025/05/12/id/1210650/

China -

While receiving a 90 day breather, China’s manufacturing sector now faces costly restart of facilities closed by the tariffs as well as trying to plan ahead in case tariffs are increased at the end of the period. Chinese economy is in no way out of the woods yet.

Phillipines –

National elections yesterday and the dust is settling on who has taken charge of the country.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Despite Russia being the one to propose the talks, the Kremlin is now suggesting that Russian President Vladimir Putin will no longer be able to attend the direct-talks between Ukraine and Russia on May 15th, with top Russian officials calling the talks “political theatre.” This comes as both Ukrainian President Zelensky confirmed he would be going and U.S. President Trump expressed interest in attending the talks, which were scheduled to take place in Istanbul on Thursday.

OBSERVATION - putin’s flip flops are causing a general loss of face of the Russian leader - almost to the point of cowardliness. He may be mistaking his refusal to meet with Zelensky as aloofness and disregarding is legitimate place as the leader of Ukraine as justified. However, it is forging a new alliance of European nations - the very action putin has tried to prevent.

Economic Impact –

The European Union is preparing a new blow to Russia’s shadow fleet. Specifically, the EU plans to ban 25 Russian oil tankers from sailing in the Baltic and North Seas.

OBSERVATION - Russia relies heavily on oil income to maintain its economy. This shadow fleet was used to bypass sanctions on Russian oil sales. Now it will become harder for them to get oil out of country as Russia has few open water ports and nearly all of them are in the Baltic and N Sea region.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with rain and showers.

President of Ukraine Zelensky signed the Law on Ratification of the Agreement between the Government of Ukraine and the Government of the United States on the Establishment of the American-Ukrainian Reconstruction Investment Fund (No. 4417-IX)

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 10 Shahed drones which were all shot down.

Russian losses per 13/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1070 men
+2 tanks
+14 AFVs
+62 artillery

Summary —

Atypical quiet night for Shahed drone attacks. Moderate fighting on the front.
Signs of a build up for the threatened Spring/Summer Russian offensive remain elusive at best, absent at worst. Even at these lowered daily casualties Russian is facing the need to replace 30-40K every month, as well as tanks and armored vehicles.

Some studies indicate that Ukraine has built up as large as a 17:1 FPV drone advantage along portions of the front, making the zone about 18 KM deep into a no man’s land for Russia forces attempting to reach Ukraine lines

Europe / NATO General –

Over the last week, UK and Italian carriers led one of the largest NATO surface fleets gathered in recent years.

21 warships, 3 submarines, 41 fighters, 19 helicopters, 10 MPAs, and around 8,000 personnel operated in the Ionian Sea near Italy during exercise Med Strike.

Middle East / N. Africa General -

LIBYA -

Heavy fighting has broken out in Tripoli, Libya, following the alleged assassination of top government official Abdul Ghani al-Kikli. A curfew is now in place as rival forces from Tripoli and Misrata battle in the streets. Tanks and armored vehicles have been deployed, and aircraft are being evacuated from Mitiga airport due to fears of further violence. Hospitals are called to move to emergency mode.

OBSERVATION - DEVELOPING Some talk that this could start a new round of civil war.

Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025

***

Military movements and actions -

Ceasefire continues to hold.

India’s PM Modi: We have only paused our military action against Pakistan

Possibly drones in Amritsar India. Flights being canceled at Sri Guru Ram Dass Jee International Airport in Amritsar.
Sirens were activated and blackout measures imposed. Indian air defenses activated in Samba.
Apparently a false alarm.

Political actions -

Indian PM Modi vows “strong response” to any future “terrorist attack”, says New Delhi would not tolerate “nuclear blackmail”

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -

Ceasefire holding and the general situation is cooling down. Post fighting analysis from available data suggests that India fared better than Pakistan, though both sides got some pretty good hits in.
Still considerable radio silence on just what provided the trigger to the sudden ceasefire, though the theory I posted yesterday still seems to be the leading candidate.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Kidnapped Edan Alexander has been returned to Israel and his family.

- IAF hit Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, taking out a Hamas command center that had taken over part of the facility.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Edan Alexander is in Israeli army hands and has been reunited with his family, as well has spoken to President Trump and PM Netanyahu. He is expected to remain hospitalized for a while to recover from the harsh treatment he received from Hamas.

After Edan Alexander’s release, 58 remain in Hamas’ grip: 20 alive, 3 unknown, 35 dead.

Hamas: We are ready to enter into negotiations leading to a comprehensive agreement and a sustainable ceasefire.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

In addition to journalist Hassan Eslaiah, the Israeli army airstrike on the Nasser Hospital Khan Younis also killed Ahmed Al-Qudra, head of Hamas’ Anti-Terrorism Service.Gaza journalist Hassan Eslaiah, who was embedded with Hamas on October 7 and had close ties to Hamas, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on the Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, southern Gaza

Israeli PM Netanyahu warned on Monday that unprecedented actions would soon take place in Gaza, telling members of the War Wounded Forum: “In the coming days, things are going to happen in Gaza. Things will happen that you have never seen before.” - i24News

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Drone strike picked off another Hezbollah leader.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Trump’s visits to Saudi Arabia and other gulf nations are being closely watched by Israel as Gaza and potential Palestine homeland issues are being discussed. This is all in the context of an apparent assault by leftist pro-arab/Palestine news sources to build up the appearance of a rift between Netanyahu and Trump.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Impending operations in Gaza still very much on the front burner. The release of dual US/Israeli citizen Edan Alexander has not really accomplished what Hamas et al had hoped for - a US directed freeze on the impending operation in Gaza. Netanyahu has made it very clear, any negotiations beyond the 16th will be done under fire - no cease fire. The leverage Hamas once had with hostages is fast disintegrating, and they missed a big PR opportunity to release more.

Lebanon and Syria are relatively stable.

Iran still squarely in Israel’s gun sight - with or without US help.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region.

More post meeting analysis shows Iran not budging on any of the key issues the US has regarding ANY portion of its nuclear program.

Recent reports indicate that a heavy water nuclear reactor reportedly only for medical research is capable of breeding plutonium in amounts that can be used for one to two bombs per year. They lied again.

Another wet day in the Redoubt

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
***

Radical elements of the trans community are busy organizing ways to help trans ‘escape’ to Canada, via civil war era underground railroad methods. Relatively tame, but a deeper and darker element is trying to organize in the background — trans militias. Elements of the attempt at organization are bubbling up across sectors of the social media environment, seeking former military ‘trans’ members for tactical leadership and training as well as organization for guerrilla based action.

There has been a lot of similar calls and attempts to organize armed response to the Trump administration across many sectors of the left - evident from volumes of social media posts. These efforts shouldn’t be discounted as there is likely some who will actually work to see this thru. Many are just keyboard warriors at this stage though.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

In April, inflation over the previous 12 months recorded the smallest increase of any month in more than four years, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released Tuesday show.

Compared to March, the seasonally-adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2%, less than the 0.3% rise analysts expected. The annual inflation CPI rate was 2.3% - the smallest 12-month rise since February of 2021.

“Core” inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, rose 0.2% from March and 2.8% over the past 12 months. The cost of energy increased 0.7% from the previous month, while the price of food fell 0.1%. The energy index decreased 3.7% percent for the 12 months ending April. The food index increased 2.8% over the last year.

The index for shelter rose 0.3% in April, accounting for more than half of the all-items monthly increase. Over the previous 12 months, the cost of shelter increased 4.0%.

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/lowest-annual-inflation-more-four-years-april

OBSERVATION - We are now pretty well past the bidenomics effects that copied over to the Trump term and now these reflect Trumpian efforts. These low inflation numbers were key factors in Trump calling on the Fed to lower the prime rate.

However the lame stream media pretty much buried this story. On my local TV news (station owned by liberal out of state company), focused on the possible effects of the tariffs on inflation - even though these April numbers include initial tariffs.

***
“Bettors in the prediction markets are dialing back recession views, with the odds of a US downturn falling on the latest trade-war developments,” Business Insider reported on Monday. “Big bets on Polymarket and Kalshi predict a 40% chance of recession as of Monday, down from 52% at the end of last week.”

Polymarket’s recession outlook hasn’t been this low since April 2, a day before the Trump administration unleashed the wave of reciprocal tariffs.

Other parts of the market are also growing more upbeat about the path of the economy through the rest of this year.

https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2025/05/12/so-much-for-the-recession-democrats-were-rooting-for-n4939710

RELATED -
Major brokerages have scaled back their U.S. recession forecasts following a temporary tariff truce between the U.S. and China, which has fueled optimism for easing global trade tensions. Goldman Sachs reduced its U.S. recession forecast to 35% from 45%, marking the first major brokerage to do so, while Barclays dismissed recession risks entirely and J.P. Morgan placed the probability below 50%.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/05/13/jp-morgan-goldman-sachs-recession-forecast-us-china-tariff-pause/83600830007/

OBSERVATION - Feel good indicators, but we are not out of the woods yet. A major economic shock could still be enough to flip us over into recession, and there are plenty of those kind of land mines out there.

***
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on Congress last week to raise or suspend the debt limit no later than mid-July. In a letter, Bessent cited “significant uncertainty” but estimated “there is a reasonable probability that the federal government’s cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted in August.” Bessent also warned Congress not to ‘wait until the last minute’ due to “serious adverse consequences.”

OBSERVATION - Democrats desperate for any kind of retaliation against Trump (as well as many RINOS) will be expected to play political chicken on this issue again. Indicators are that DOGE efforts may have pushed this deadline down the road somewhat, but it needs to be dealt with sooner, not later. This will become even more critical towards the democrats should economic growth start to take hold and govt reform success become apparent. Then the democrats have little public support for such politics.

POLITICAL FRONT –

(WND)—Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has fired the top officials leading the National Intelligence Council and has moved the agency to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, or ODNI.

Gabbard fired Mike Collins, who was serving as the acting chair of the National Intelligence Council, and his deputy, Maria Langan-Riekhof, on Tuesday, senior intelligence officials told Fox News Digital.

OBSERVATON - She is doing a good job aggressively rooting out deep state.

1
***
A federal grand jury has indicted Milwaukee County Judge Hannah Dugan, who has been charged with helping an illegal immigrant evade ICE when federal agents showed up to her courtroom earlier last month.

https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-federal-grand-jury-indicts-judge-hannah-dugan-on-charges-of-helping-illegal-immigrant-evade-ice?utm_campaign=64483

OBSERVATION - This indictment is going to suck a lot of the wind out of democrat threats against more arrests against judges and in particular the three congress critters potentially facing assault charges for the NJ ICE riot. FAFO time rolling around.

TRUMP Watch –

Following meetings in SA, Trump is now in Qatar.

Yesterday, he met with Syrian “president” Jolani - who as recent as 4 months ago was on the most wanted terrorist list.

Illegal Immigration –

U.S. District Judge Stephanie Haines, a Trump appointee to the bench in Pennsylvania, upheld Trump’s March 14 proclamation declaring that Tren de Aragua, a violent gang based in Venezuela, is mounting an “incursion” into the United States.

Though that “incursion” looks nothing like the military invasions the founders envisioned when they passed the Alien Enemies Act in 1798, Haines said old statutes can be applied to modern developments in the world. And she compared Tren de Aragua to the “military detachments or pirates” that pillaged the United States when the law was passed.

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2025/05/13/federal-judge-hands-trump-administration-a-win-on-alien-enemies-act-n3802746

China -

US Treasury Department yesterday imposed additional sanctions on Chinese companies that buy oil from Iran. The revenue from oil sales to China allows Tehran to finance terrorist organizations and its weapons development programs.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

At this stage it is unlikely that putin will meet with Zelensky this week. However, there is growing pressure from leaders friendly to Russia to do so. putin is losing on the propaganda front on this issue and may eventually be forced into meeting with Zelensky.

Personnel Issues –

(ISW). The Russian military is reportedly generating enough forces to replace losses and is reinforcing the size of the Russian force grouping in Ukraine despite experiencing an increased casualty rate per square kilometer gained.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with rain and showers.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched a ballistic missile (Iskander-M/KN-23) from Crimea & 145 drones (Shahed + decoys) from multiple directions. As of 09:00, 80 Shahed drones confirmed downed in the east, north, west, and center of Ukraine. 42 decoys were lost without negative consequences.

Russian losses per 14/05/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff

+1240 men
+2 tanks
+14 AFVs
+47 artillery
+1 MLRS
+3 AD systems

Odesa was hit with ballistic missiles. Explosions were reported and a huge column of smoke reported near the port area.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Mykhailivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Summary —

Battlefield conditions remain relatively static.

The big play is the push for a ceasefire and peace talks. putin continues to refuse to meet with Zelensky and is losing face on a global scale in doing so. Now Trump is warning about the imposition of far more severe sanctions on Russia to compel him to meet, and these warnings are amplified by leaders in Europe. His tactic to split up Ukrainian allies is reversing on his intransigence on peace talks.

Europe / NATO General –

Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, NATO’s Military Committee Chairman, emphasized during a meeting in Brussels that “support for Ukraine must remain key so that, when the time comes, Kyiv can sit at the negotiating table from a position of strength.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirms the 17th sanctions package against Russia has been approved. Europe further restricts access to battlefield technologies and adds 189 ships from the “shadow fleet” to the list.
“This war must end. We will keep up the pressure on the Kremlin,” von der Leyen said

Middle East / N. Africa General -

LIBYA -

Very little news following heavy fighting over the weekend. Situation considered very tense by observers.

Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WARNING, May 14, 2025

Downgrade in threat level due to current stability in the ceasefire and no indicators of imminent resumption of fighting.

***

Political actions -

India says Indus Water Treaty will remain in abeyance until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -

Temperature gage is on the downward trend. A flare up could occur with water “withholding” by India in abeyance of treaty. Indian dams/lakes do not have the storage capacity to dry out the channels, but radical water controls such as total stoppage of flow then releases at serious flood levels also work to deny Pakistan use of water.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- IAF takes out Muhammad Sinwar, brother of Yahya Sinwar and leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IDF spokesman. IAF conducted “a precise strike on Hamas terrorists in a command and control center located in an underground terrorist infrastructure site beneath the European hospital in Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip.

The Hamas terrorist organization continues to use hospitals in the Gaza Strip for terrorist activity, demonstrating its cynical and brutal use of the civilian population in the hospital and its surroundings.

9 penetrating, bunker busting bombs hit the underground command post in what they call a belt of fire attack.

Believed to have been killed in the attack was Muhammad Sinwar, brother of Yahya Sinwar and leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip (succeeding Yahya). Also Abu Obaida, spokesman for the Hamas terrorist organization, was also taken out. At least 16 killed, more than 50 injured in air strike.

IAF carried out additional strikes near the European Hospital in Khan Yunis to prevent rescue forces from reaching the Hamas tunnel that was targeted.
If Sinwar or other Hamas members weren’t killed by the airstrikes, they’ll likely eventually suffocate in the tunnel, the way Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah likely met his death.

***
Three rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip, two were intercepted and the third fell into an open field. The IDF’s Arabic-language spokesperson urged residents in the Jabalia area to evacuate the area from which the rockets were fired.
These launches occurred shortly after the IAF strike on the Hamas bunker beneath the European hospital

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Israeli army said that Hussein Nehme, who was killed in a drone strike in the Qaqaiyat al-Jisr area, was the commander of the Qabrikha compound in Hezbollah.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

IDF and Shin Bet say they destroyed a Palestinian bomb lab in Tulkarm, Judea and Samaria with over 200 bombs and 150 kg of explosives.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Three launches from Yemen were detected, one failed and did not reach Israeli territory, and the other two were intercepted.

The IDF repeats its “urgent” evacuation warning for three Houthi-controlled ports in Yemen, ahead of possible airstrikes.

On Sunday, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman Col. Avichay Adraee warned those at the Ras Isa, Hodeidah, and Salif ports on the western coast to evacuate until further notice.

Since the initial warning, the Houthis have launched several ballistic missiles at Israel, but no IDF strikes were carried out.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza continues to be a very hazardous site for Hamas leaders. The tunnel complex / command bunker hit was immediately adjacent to the Europe Hospital - once again attempting to use civilian ‘safe zones’ for military purposes. The targeting may have been result of information provided by the released US/Israeli soldier - who knows. There have been a lot of Hamas captured lately with a wealth of info on the underground network Hamas constructed over the past decade(s).

The strike also places Israel one step closer to initiating ground ops in Gaza.

Lebanon - another drone attack, another Hezbollah leader taken out.

Syria - stable with Israel closely monitoring Trump’s discussions with Jolani.

Iran - tick tock.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region.

Trump outs more pressure on Iran: “I want to make a deal with Iran, I want to do something if it’s possible, but for that to happen, it must stop sponsoring terror, halt its bloody proxy wars, and permanently and verifiably cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons... I’m strongly urging all nations to join us in fully and totally enforcing the sanctions that I just placed on Iran.”

OBSERVATION - The carrot / stick approach is leaning towards the ‘stick’ at this time. Iran flat out refuses to “permanently and verifiably cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons” and Trump will have to put his money where his mouth is on this issue. Iran’s stance is just digging themselves into a deeper hole.

Saudi Arabia –

The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have signed new agreements covering energy, defense, and mining, according to Saudi state TV.

Saudi Arabia will invest $600 billion in the US market, including a defense procurement deal worth $142 billion

The White House released the details of the agreement signed between the US President and the Saudi Crown Prince. The statement said that these are “historic and potentially game-changing deals for both countries, marking the beginning of a new golden era in the partnership between the US and Saudi Arabia.”

OBSERVATION - This is a BIG PR win for Saudi Arabia, facing a challenge by Iran and other gulf states for title of regional leadership on the global stage. This meeting, they made sure they kissed the Trump ring to stay on his favorable side.

Syria -

Syrian President al-Julani and President Trump met yesterday

According to the White House, President Trump has outlined the following demands for Syrian President (Jolani) Ahmed al-Sharaa:

1. Join the Abraham Accords and normalize ties with Israel

2. Expel all foreign terror groups from Syrian territory

3. Remove Palestinian terrorists from the country

4. Assist the U.S. in blocking any IS*IS resurgence

5. Take control of IS*IS detention centers in northeastern Syria

Trump also mentioned removal of sanctions, no mention if attached to the demands listed above.

Today’s report will be on the smaller side and there will be no posts tomorrow, Saturday and I may not get one out Sunday. On the road for the weekend.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
***

Yesterday, rumors were afoot over whether or not Trump will pardon Derek Chauvin. This triggered Minnesota to begin planning for an outbreak of violence at the scale of 2020.

As the fifth anniversary of the death of George Floyd nears, the governor and other public officials are bracing for possibility the president will undo federal convictions.

You read that correctly. Chauvin was convicted in state court (based on questionable testimony). The Feds piled on with convictions for civil rights violations and tax evasion, to boot. He in currently being held in a Federal facility.

The Star Tribune quotes a Minneapolis police spokesman,
“To be clear, we have no credible intelligence about any pardon or planned disruptions here in Minneapolis.”

Responding to questions from reporters this week, Gov. Tim Walz said the White House has given him no indication that a federal pardon for Chauvin is imminent.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/05/george-floyd-riots-2-0.php#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - It appears that the leftists are desperate to trigger anything that could cause massive riots like that in 2020. They are failing to gain traction (and interest) of the black community with their current anti-DOGE, pro-Hamas, anti-Tesla efforts. Blacks don’t really care about those issues. BLM in the past years has burned thru a lot of trust of the black community as well - that is millions of dollars put into mansions for its organizers. If a pardon happens, Chauvin is still not out of the woods since he will retain state charges that a federal pardon can’t revoke.

Curent word out of the WH is that a pardon is not being considered for Chauvin at this time. News reports likely driven to try to stir up dissension

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.

DETROIT (AP) — A 19-year-old man was arrested after spending months planning an attack on a U.S. Army site in suburban Detroit, authorities said Wednesday. The man was planning a mass shooting at the Army’s Tank-Automotive & Armaments Command in Warren, commonly known as the Detroit Arsenal, on behalf of the Islamic State group, the U.S. Attorney’s Office said.

The man, who was a recent member of the Michigan Army National Guard, was arrested Tuesday shortly after launching a drone for a final look before an attack, the FBI said in a court filing.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/fbi-says-it-broke-up-a-plan-to-attack-an-army-20326962.php

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Speaking at the BMO Global Farm to Market Conference in New York, Tyson Foods CEO Donnie King said the U.S. cattle industry appears to be in the early stages of a rebuilding cycle, with the national herd size hovering near 70-year lows.

In response to alarmingly low herd levels pushing cattle futures in Chicago to record highs, King noted Tyson plans to ramp up chicken production. Chicken is viewed as an affordable alternative to beef, making it increasingly attractive to cost-conscious consumers.

https://www.zerohedge.com/food/tyson-responds-beef-shortage-hard-push-chicken-production

OBSERVATION - The explosive inflation from wuhan shut downs, and a prolonged drought that saw hay production drop to unsustainable levels, has hurt the cattleman across the west. Now having to balance selling with saving some head for increasing the herd is a difficult balance. It takes a couple years to grow herds under good economic conditions. Things are still expensive out there and cattlemen are cautious about future economic shockwaves.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Unconfirmed claims that Houthi air defense radar and missile systems were able to target US F35 and F16 aircraft during the bombing campaign.

POLITICAL FRONT –

After pulling an all-nighter bickering, the House Ways and Means Committee passed a tax package Wednesday morning that it says will save the average American family enough money to pay for more than two months of groceries.

In a 29-16 vote cast strictly along party lines, Republicans passed the committee’s contribution to their reconciliation bill, including provisions to extend, expand and make permanent the tax cuts instituted in 2017 during the first Trump Administration.

“We’re delivering President Trump’s promises to allow the economy to flourish,” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) announced following the vote, touting some of the new taxpayer benefits included in the package:

No taxes on tips.
No taxes on overtime.
No taxes on loan interest for American-made cars.
Tax relief for seniors.

if the Trump tax cuts are allowed to expire, including:

The average taxpayer would see a 22% tax hike if the Trump tax cuts expire.
A family of four making $80,610, the median income in the United States, would see a $1,695 tax increase if the Trump Tax Cuts expire.
The $1,695 lost would cost the average family the equivalent of the price of more than two months (9 weeks) of groceries.
90% of all taxpayers would see their guaranteed tax deduction cut in half.

The report includes a chart showing how the tax rates will increase for every income group above $12,150.

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/average-family-would-lose-9-weeks-groceries-if-trump-tax-cuts-are-allowed

OBSERVATION - With these numbers out there, democrats will be hard pressed to opposed without taking some critical hits from their constituents - especially as they struggle to position themselves for the mid term elections next year. One Trump promise that is missing is no tax on Social Security for seniors - replaced by a ‘tax credit’ of some sort, some reports of up to $6000.

***
(FO) House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said federal law enforcement will “find out” if they attempt to arrest three New Jersey Democrats involved in an alleged assault last Friday.

“They’ll find out. They’ll find out. They’ll find out. That’s a red line. It’s a red line, it’s very clear… They know better than to go down that road. And it’s been made loudly and abundantly clear to the Trump administration. We’re not going to be intimidated by their tactics to try to force principled opposition from not standing up to their extremism,” Jeffries said.

OBSERVATION - The DoJ needs to prosecute and nip this level of violence by congress critters in the butt early to discourage further acts of violence in the future. The infamous chant of the left “no one is above the law” should have its karmic reprise bigly.

TRUMP Watch –

After a two-hour meeting: Qatar’s Emir and US President Trump are now signing agreements.between the countries

According to Trump, Qatar Airways ordered over 160 Boeing jets.
The Boeing deal exceeds $200 billion.

China -

Officials are reportedly reassessing the risk posed by Chinese-made devices found in solar panels that are capable of damaging the energy infrastructure, destabilizing the power grid and triggering widespread blackouts.

Over the past nine months, “rogue communication devices” not listed in product documents were found in solar power inverters and batteries from several Chinese suppliers, according to sources familiar with the matter who spoke with Reuters. The undocumented devices were found after U.S. experts disassembled the renewable energy equipment to check for security issues, prompting officials to review the potential dangers of the Chinese-made devices, according to the publication.

“We know that China believes there is value in placing at least some elements of our core infrastructure at risk of destruction or disruption,” Mike Rogers, a former director of the U.S. National Security Agency, told Reuters. “I think that the Chinese are, in part, hoping that the widespread use of inverters limits the options that the West has to deal with the security issue.

If the rogue communication devices found in the inverters are used to circumnavigate firewalls and change the settings or turn off inverters remotely, this could destabilize power grids, damage energy technology and prompt blackouts, according to experts who spoke with Reuters.

“That effectively means there is a built-in way to physically destroy the grid,” one of the sources told the publication.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/05/14/rogue-devices-capable-of-triggering-blackouts-reportedly-found-in-chinese-solar-panels/

OBSERVATION - Chinese embedded devices have been found in a wide variety of items. Most recently on cargo handling cranes at our major ports. Think Israeli pager attack, but on mega steroids. Massive disruption of the power grid (among other things) can quickly cripple us. The task becomes incredibly expensive as these relatively inexpensive devices will require expensive investigation to find and replace/disable.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Putin announces: The Russian delegation that will go to Istanbul for talks with Ukraine is low-level. Neither he, nor the foreign minister will be there.

Vladimir Medinsky will head the Russian delegation at the talks in Istanbul on May 15. The Russian delegation for the talks in Istanbul includes Medinsky, Galuzin, Fomin and Kostyukov, the Kremlin reported.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with rain and showers.

Ukraine’s delegation in Turkey reportedly includes President Zelensky, Foreign Minister Sybiiha, Chief of the General Staff Hnatov, SBU Head Malyuk, Defense Minister Umerov, and Head of the Presidential Office Yermak—a high-level presence at the talks.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

May 15, Russia launched a drone attack on Ukraine with 110 drones (Shahed + decoys) from multiple directions. In total, 62 Shaheds were shot down, 29 decoys failed to hit targets.

Explosions from drone strikes were reported in Lutsk, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions, central Ukraine.

Russian losses per 15/05/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff

+1220 men
+8 tanks
+13 AFVs
+45 artillery
+2 MLRS
+1 AD system

Summary —

Pretty standard day in the war. Drones and moderately fighting predominate with no regions facing any collapse of Ukraine defenses nor evidence of Russian build up for their Spring/Summer offensive.

putin losing more credibility with the low ranking contingent he sent to Turkey for ceasefire/peace talks. The apparent chickening out and sending low level diplomats was an attempt to mock Ukraine and the US, but global perspective indicates it may have backfired.

Middle East / N. Africa General -

LIBYA -

Still very little news following heavy fighting over the weekend. Situation considered very tense by observers.

Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WARNING, May 14, 2025

Downgrade in threat level due to current stability in the ceasefire and no indicators of imminent resumption of fighting.

***

Indicators that things are still tense along the border region, but it seems that India is satisfied with the damage it inflicted on Pakistan and is not looking for more fighting.

Assessment of Pakistan’s attacks by some in the OSINT community and other observers suggests that they did less target damage than claimed. Both Indian and Paki claims were reviewed using commercial satellite imagery to verify each side.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- More Hamas leaders likely killed in yesterday’s IAF strike on key Hamas compound under the European Hospital

- Israel calling for Gazan civilians to begin moving south to designated safe areas near the Egyptian border.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IAF airstrikes have appeared to have increased in number and intensity overnight.

Israel is preparing a series of sites in Gaza that could be used as distribution centers for humanitarian aid in a controversial new plan, satellite images show.
The US confirmed last week that it was preparing a new system for providing aid from a series of hubs inside Gaza, which would be run by private companies and protected by security contractors and Israeli forces.
Images analysed by BBC Verify show that land has already been cleared, with new roads and staging areas constructed at a number of locations in southern and central Gaza in recent weeks.

***
In Gaza, there are fears that Rafah Brigade Commander Muhammad Shabana was also - alongside Muhammad Sinwar - in the underground compound that was attacked last night in Khan Yunis.
The security establishment is now investigating whether other senior officials were with Sinwar.

***
IDF Spokesperson in Arabic Avichai Adraee in an extraordinary evacuation announcement in Gaza City and the northern Strip:
Demands the evacuation of certain compounds due to terrorist activity within them - including, among others, Shifa Hospital, the Islamic University, as well as a number of school compounds in various areas of Gaza City.

***
The IDF has dropped evacuation leaflets over Tel al-Za’tar in northeastern Gaza telling residents to begin moving to sites in S Gaza.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Another day, another Hezbollah leader hit by a drone -launched missile.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Pause in Houthi missile fire on Israel.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas is in bad shape, losing key leadership on the edge of the final attack planned by Israel to eliminate the terrorists. Note from the evacuation notice above, other command posts hidden under ‘safe’ facilities like schools and hospitals have been placed on notice. Strong rumors that the Gaza operation will begin this Saturday (while I’m on the road). All accounts of the plan is that Israel is going to level Gaza to the ground, except for the refugee zone - already cleared. Urban renewal on a massive scale.

Hamas know this and has scrambled to put out any kind of a ceasefire option. They just don’t have the cards to play and without identified leadership they cannot pull together an effective response.

Hezbollah is also in bad shape. Israel almost daily picks off leaders and facilities with absolutely no retaliatory response by Hezbollah. Trump’s words of encouragement to the Lebanese govt to rid the country of Hezbollah may have given opposition motivation to leverage their newly found power over Hezbollah.

Trump’s meeting with Syrian leader Jolani being closely watched and evaluated. Conditions yesterday suggest Syria is not off the hook for past human rights violations and ones under Jolani’s regime are under watch as well.

Iran may well see the writing on the wall as well, with yesterday’s announcement of massive 180 degree turn around on negotiations. See below.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region.

Ali Shamkhani, a top advisor to Iranian Supreme-Leader Ali Khamenei, told NBC News tonight that Iran is ready to sign a nuclear deal with the United States. In the agreement suggested by Shamkhani, Iran would commit to never making nuclear weapons, get rid of its stockpiles of highly-enriched uranium, agree to only enrich uranium to the lower levels needed for civil energy, and allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to supervise the process, in exchange for an immediate lifting of all economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Iran.

OBSERVATION - A desperate move to try to get the US to bite at the offer, in order to further delay military operations. History shows that Iran violated its previous agreements. They have the run-around polished to a high shine for IAEA inspectors and would love to play their games with them again. So far Trumps Qatar remarks indicate Iran is not off the hook yet.
History also shows that Iran will weasel word these ‘concessions’ into nothing. With Trump out of the region by tomorrow and a round of ‘negotiations’ this Saturday, we’ll see just how sincere Iran is and how close Trump is to launching and air strike campaign to rubble the Iranian nuclear program.

Black Swans -

Every few months the doom porn providers resurrect the infamous ‘supervolcano’ scenario. Most often it centers on Yellowstone. Today it refocuses on Campi Flegrei supervolcano, in Italy. And as usual, it is peddled by doomsday author Michael Snyder.

This volcano has a greater potential for eruption than Yellowstone with a more active recent history. However, i’m not creating a canoe to paddle across the creek to reach some sort of shelter from its ash clouds (an oblique reference to an episode of “Doomsday Preppers”).

Like many other natural disasters, preparations have to consist first of recognizing the threat, then taking measures to mitigate that threat. One way is to move to a safer location. Second is to supersize one’s food storage in that safe location - as volcanic winters are rather harsh, see the Tambora 1815 eruption.

Yet on the probability scale, chances of eruption in the near term remain low. Doesn’t mean we write it off all together, just pay reasonable attention.

Some key events while I was on the road. Unable to comment on all

I’ll be on the road again with no posts this coming Saturday and Sunday

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated May 5, 2025
National Day of Action scheduled for Saturday, 14 June.
***

Comey calls for Trump to be assassinated -

Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem indicated that the Secret Service is now involved in the matter.
“Disgraced former FBI Director James Comey just called for the assassination of @POTUS Trump,” Noem wrote on X. “DHS and Secret Service is investigating this threat and will respond appropriately.”
Comey was later interviewed by Sec Svc personnel. In which he played his typical stupid.

OBSERVATION - More of the “8647” memes were also released with Comey’s post by other democrat/leftist influencers. This continues a trend where democrats continue to call for the assassination of Trump, creating social conditions where there is a growing support for the act in the democrat base. Another attempt could trigger significant social unrest - let alone the potential out right violence if successful.

Comey knew EXACTLY what he was posting.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.

The pro-abortion suicide bomber who blew up the exterior of a pregnancy treatment clinic in Palm Springs, CA has been identified as Guy E. Bartkus. The 25-year-old was prolific on Reddit, where he espoused an anti-natal, anti-human life ideology. He was killed by the blast.

OBSERVATION - Being treated by officials as a terrorism incident. Key point IMHO is the information that he called for violence against pro-life elements in his Reddit posts. Reddit has become a hot bed of calls for violence, especially towards anything Trump. Having a mental case now actually go out and do what he said needed to be done will unfortunately inspire many of these other mental cases to try and do the same.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

White House Director of Communications Steven Cheung challenged Moody’s credit rating downgrade of the U.S. He called out Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi in a post on X. “Nobody takes his “analysis” seriously. He has been proven wrong time and time again.”

Moody’s announced on Friday that it had downgraded the U.S. rating “to Aa1 from Aaa.” Maybe more importantly to some was the additional reference, “and changed the outlook to stable from negative.”

Cheung said it was predictable. And political. Cheung said Zandi “is an Obama advisor and Clinton donor who has been a ‘Never Trumper’ since 2016.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/moodys-credit-rating-whitehouse-downgrade/2025/05/17/id/1211334/

OBSERVATION - This will result in the US paying more for the loans it receives to cover the debt - increasing our required debt payments. This is more of a reflection of what Trump inherited from biden than from his policies.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

USS Truman CSG departed the Red Sea region and last report was in the Mediterranean sea enroute back to its US port.

Rumors that the Nimitz CSG may be diverted from patrolling the western Pacific to bring CENTCOM’s carriers back to two in the Persian gulf region.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Hur interview hits hard -

Biden couldn’t remember details such as when his son Beau died, when he left office as vice president, what year Donald Trump was elected, and why he had classified documents in his possession that he shouldn’t have had..

According to Axios, which released the recording, Biden frequently slurred words or muttered, and “appears to validate Hur’s assertion that jurors in a trial likely would have viewed Biden as “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”
NOTE - Hur stated in his report that he felt that biden was mentally incapable of contributing to his defense in any trial as well.

***
On Sunday, news broke that former President Joe Biden was diagnosed with an aggressive form of prostate cancer, characterized by a Gleason score of 9 and metastasis to the bone. The announcement, made by Biden’s office, detailed that the diagnosis followed the discovery of a prostate nodule after worsening urinary symptoms a week prior.

OBSERVATIONS ON BIDEN - It is clear that his health coverup extended to multiple other issues. Being under the best available care, to suddenly ‘discover’ level 9 prostate cancer is beyond unbelievable add to it his demential state. Now, rightly so, his auto pens and even USSC appointment are coming under close scrutiny. It should almost be a slam dunk to have them reversed because a man with the mental faculties of a carrot could not have made an informed decision on many issues. I’ve raise this issue in the past, but now at least publicly by some elements of the MSM it is hitting their radar.

***
Republicans advanced their massive tax cut and border security package out of a key House committee during a rare Sunday night vote as deficit hawks who blocked the measure two days earlier reversed course after gaining commitments on the package’s spending cuts.
Speaker Mike Johnson met with Republican lawmakers shortly before the meeting, telling reporters that the changes agreed to were “just some minor modifications. Not a huge thing.”

OBSERVATION - Get on the horn to your congress critters. Stop them from snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and start more aggressively supporting the mandate of the people.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump’s net approval rating among voters ... in late April he was 8 points underwater, but look at where he was in the most recent poll among voters! He’s up SEVEN points to a -1 point net favorability rating.
Not only is he baffling CNN, he’s baffling National Review writers who apparently have never heard of the term “negotiations.”

CNN -
He’s nearly TEN POINTS better than he was back in May 16th of 2017 in his first term.
So what we see is Donald Trump is just not doing better than he was in late April of 2025, he’s doing considerably better than he was doing at this point in term number one. He’s doing about ten points better than he was doing at this point in term number one.
The bottom line is it’s the economy, the economy, the economy.

https://notthebee.com/article/polls-show-that-president-trumps-approval-ratings-are-continuing-to-climb-baffling-cnn

OBSERVATION - When CNN cannot dump enough special sauce on their polls to make these numbers turn against Trump, support is hard to deny.

***
President Donald Trump says he will speak by phone Monday with Russian leader Vladimir Putin about the war in Ukraine.
Trump said in a social media post Saturday that the subject will be “STOPPING THE ‘BLOODBATH.”

OBSERVATION - The initial Ukraine / Russian meetings in Istanbul over the weekend were a joke. Russia not only held to its earlier demands, but made more demands of Ukraine territory. They are not interested in a negotiated peace. Until Trump starts giving Russia pain, nothing will change.

Illegal Immigration –

USSC’s decisions on not allowing Trump to use a civil war era law to deport illegals has pushed the administration closer to removing habus corpus to expedite deportations. There is clearly now a judicial revolt to take control of the foreign policy of the US. A constitutional crisis grows

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Putin stated that Russia is ready to fight for the next 21 years if necessary to conquer Ukraine.

Suppose to talk to Trump today - don’t raise your expectations.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 80s with scattered showers and thundershowers.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Out of launched 112 Shahed & other UAVs against Ukraine, Ukrainian air defenses shot down 41 and suppressed 35 with EW systems.

Russian losses as reported by the Ukraine General Staff

1040 men
1 tank
5 AFVs
29 Artillery

Summary —

Casualties over the weekend dipped to the 800s - lowest in over a year and today’s numbers continue low numbers. No evident cause, other than a potential ‘tactical pause’ to reposition and reinforce elements for continuations of the attacks. These numbers represent as much as 50% decrease from just a few months ago.

Russia / Ukraine “negotiations” were a joke over the weekend. Russia was demanding even more terrain concessions and no constructive options towards any ceasefire. Trump and putin are to talk later today. Don’t expect much and putin has no incentive to stop the war, even if it takes 21 years.

Europe / NATO General –

Romanian authorities have announced that the liberal mayor of Bucharest, mathematician Nicușor Dan has won the second and final round of the deeply controversial Romanian presidential elections.

With the first round of vote cancelled; with favorite candidate Călin Georgescu arrested, prosecuted and banned from the re-election; with widespread allegations of fraud and foreign interference by France – this election is forever tainted.

Right-wing populist George Simion, who won the first round of the election ‘re-do’ with over 20 percentage point ahead of Dan, warned of fraud, and posted on X that he was the new president of Romania.

But the official results state: Nicușor Dan is the new president-elect.

OBSERVATION - Romania appears to have made a shift from nationalism towards being subservient to the EU.

Pakistan / India – Threat Level - ADVISORY, May 19, 2025

Downgraded the Threat Level due to lack of activity and no solid indicators of impending resumption of fighting. Matters are still tense between the two countries but for now neither seems willing to continue the fight.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- “Gideon’s Chariot” ground offensive has been initiated

- Hamas scrambling for new ceasefire/hostage talks.

- Israel has taken out several high Hamas commanders.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu warns that Israel intends to physically control all of Gaza.

Israel has begun to let limited amounts of food into Gaza, tactically located to entice Gazans to evacuate to these designated ‘safe areas’ where they will be searched and screened before entry.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Before I went out on the weekend, I noted that Gideon’s Chariot started - turned out to be the massive airstrikes preparing the battlefield for yesterday’s official start of the ground offensive phase.

The IDF has says it has launched major ground operations across northern and southern Gaza under a new offensive called Operation Gideon’s Chariots.
Over the past week, the Israeli Air Force hit more than 670 Hamxs targets, including weapons depots, tunnels, and anti-tank sites.

Five IDF divisions are now engaged in the assault on the Gaza Strip.

***
IAF strikes over the past week have effectively wiped out the remaining Hamas military leadership in Gaza. The only surviving member is Gaza Brigade commander Izz al-Din Haddad.

***
The IDF has issued a wide evacuation warning for Khan Younis, Bani Suheila, and Abasan, urging civilians to move west to the Mawasi area.
Col. Avichay Adraee said an “unprecedented attack” is imminent, calling Khan Younis “a dangerous combat zone.”

***
IDF special forces conducted a raid targeting Popular Resistance Committees operative Ahmed Sarhan in Khan Yunis. Sarhan was killed in the raid

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

More Hezbollah leaders being taken out by precision drone strikes on their vehicles

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Israel targeted Houthi-controlled al Salif and Hudaydah ports on May 16 as part of an Israeli campaign to disrupt the Houthi ability to enable attacks targeting Israel

Over the weekend, Houthis continued to lob ballistic missiles toward Israel. All were successfully intercepted.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The big one has started in Gaza. On schedule, Hamas has a sudden urge to negotiate with Israel on hostage releases and a ceasefire. On the basics, Hamas is not coming close to Israeli demands. At this stage, Israel appears to be determined to finish the job and not be further interrupted by insincere Hamas offers.

The loss of senior Hamas leadership is going to make matters worse for them as Israel presses into Hamas held territories. There are likely proficient smaller unit commanders, but without higher level command to coordinate efforts, they will stand and die on their own. Very similar to some of the situation in Lebanon and the losses sustained by Hezbollah leadership.

Israel’s push southward is already generating a large migration of Gazans into areas designated by Israel, where they will be disarmed and any Hamas fighters intercepted and captured.

The fight for Khan Younis will be particularly fierce. Hamas has already lost Rafah to the south and most of Gaza City to the north. Recent hostage releases were centered out of the Khan Younis area. It is essentially surrounded and the only way out is to the south, thru heavy Israeli security and screening.

As for Lebanon and Syria, the status quo remains intact. Hezbollah has been unable to provide any support to Hamas as it seems their missile/rocket support has been neutered. Syria continues to consolidate power and Jolani’s recent talks with Trump suggest he’s trying to reign in is more zealous jihadi followers.

Houthi are a nuisance but not a severe threat.

Iran remains in Israel’s sights. The continued unraveling of US/Iranian nuclear talks indicates that a time of action may soon hit - See below

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region.

Today, in the midst of nuclear talks, Khamenei literally threatened the United States and pledged to eliminate the entire state of Israel — openly advocating genocide.

“The Zionist regime, which is the dangerous and lethal cancerous tumor of this region, must undoubtedly be removed, and it will be.”

Witkoff: We have one very, very clear red line & that is enrichment. We cannot allow even 1% of enrichment capability. We’ve delivered a proposal to Iran that we think addresses some of this w/o disrespecting them. We think we’ll be meeting some time this week in Europe.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragjchi, in response to Wittkoff’s remarks:

“Wittkoff’s remarks are completely disconnected from the reality of the negotiations. Uranium enrichment will continue in Iran.
If they continue to raise unrealistic demands, it is natural that they will not be met. Iran will not agree to zero enrichment.”

OBSERVATION - Iran’s rejection of the US demands may well have been the final straw. Time will tell is this is the opening bell of air strikes on Iran, but it sure as heck looks like Iran has shut the door on negotiations.

The unraveling of talks may also prompt Iran to take a chance and try a third missile barrage against Israel. Such is made more likely by the Israeli offensive in Gaza. Though Israel is busy in Gaza, it is retaining a substantial readiness to hit Iran. Such an attack would likely trigger the US to launch its strikes as it would be very evident Iran has no desire to stand down. Iran is facing nothing but bad options for the regime. Capitulate to US demands and eliminate their nuclear program, reject US demands and face the ‘stick’, strike out at Israel and hopefully get a lucky hit before facing the retaliatory onslaught.

How close the hands are to midnight are hard to tell. Watching to see if the USS Nimitz is redirected to CENTCOM to replace the already departed USS Truman. There is still a potent offensive capability in the region, but I would think the US would position for an overkill of assets. If further delayed, there would potentially be a need for a force recycling of new units - primarily air force - into the region. The dangers of keeping the hammer cocked for too long is a drop in readiness and capability.

With Trump safely out of the region, the window of opportunity is wide open.

Syria -

Syria breaks Russia’s Tartus port agreement and signs deal with UAE

OBSERVATION - This is a big hit to Russia, losing an important regional port that has projected Russia power in the eastern Med region for decades. Russia may now have to negotiate with UAE for space to use some of the port.

Misc of Note –

Seasonal, natural threats continue to roll across the US. Tornados have been abundant over the weekend and Kalifornia is facing its largest Red Flag warning of the season over much of the northern part of the state. Keep alert to changing conditions if you live in areas prone to natural disasters such as fires, floods and tornados.

I’ll be on the road again with no posts this coming Saturday and Sunday

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The U.S. Air Force has sent a contingent of at least four F-15 fighters to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean to help provide force protection for the island and the assets currently deployed there, which includes B-52H bombers. TWZ explicitly raised this possibility in April in a piece touching on evolving threats to the highly strategic Indian Ocean outpost and the vulnerabilities they highlight.

“The F-15s are deployed providing force protection,” CDR Matthew Comer, Chief of Media and Current Operations, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Public Affairs confirmed to The War Zone. We had some follow up questions and will update this story with any new pertinent details provided.

https://www.twz.com/air/f-15-eagles-deploy-to-diego-garcia-to-protect-the-indian-ocean-outpost

OBSERVATION - Considerable speculation regarding what intelligence or mission demand that triggered this relatively unprecedented force protection deployment to the island. To me the most likely would be the protection of B52s enroute to a release point targeting Iran. Four fighters as a bit too small for area defense of the Island.

POLITICAL FRONT –

US Attorney Alina Habba announced federal charges against Democrat Rep. LaMonica McIver for assaulting ICE agents.

“Today my office has charged Congresswoman McIver with violation of Title 18, United States Code, Section 111(a)(1) for assaulting, impeding and interfering with law enforcement,” Alina Habba said on Monday evening.

“No one is above the law — politicians or otherwise,” Alina Habba said.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/05/breaking-us-attorney-alina-habba-announces-federal-charges/

Hakeem Jeffries’ “RED LINE” has now been crossed now that Rep. LaMonica McIver has been charged for assaulting a law enforcement officer by Alina Habba.

He warned: “They’ll FIND OUT. It’s a red line. They know better than to go down that road. There are clear lines that they dare not cross.”

Habba also announced the dropping of a misdemeanor trespassing charge against Newark Mayor Ras Baraka arising from the same incident at an ICE facility located in that city. (Apparently the felony charges remain)

OBSERVATION - Break out the popcorn. Assessment is that Jeffries has no ammo to bring to this situation other than talk and pressure is growing rapidly on Speaker Johnson to move on expulsion proceedings.

****
Former President Joe Biden had prostate cancer at “the start of his presidency in 2021,” according to a former Obama administration official. On Friday, May 16, 2025, Biden was diagnosed with “a more aggressive form of the disease,” which had spread to the bone, categorized as Stage 4B. Appearing on MSNBC, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, a key architect of ObamaCare who was once described as the “deadly doctor” with “Orwellian thinking”, said Biden most likely had the cancer for several years. “You believe it is likely, if this prostate cancer has spread to the bone, that he could have had it for up to a decade, but certainly, likely, would it be fair to say, he’s likely to have had this for at least several years?” MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough asked.

https://thepopulisttimes.com/obama-official-biden-had-prostate-cancer-at-the-start-of-his-presidency/

RELATED =
Washington, D.C. – In a stunning revelation on May 18, 2025, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) announced that staffers were behind the use of the autopen to sign documents for President Joe Biden during his mental decline, with subpoenas imminent. (FOX)

MORE RELATED
Democrats are now demanding that President Trump and his DOJ shut down all investigations, including the probe into the autopen pardons, against Joe Biden, his family, and his administration, after it was revealed that Biden has cancer.

OBSERVATIONS ON BIDEN - the sum total of this news is that there is a post-reign constitutional crisis continuing to grow. I’ve noted in the past that his ‘decisions’ could and now definitely SHOULD be challenged on the basis that he no longer possessed the mental abilities to make those decisions. This includes his USSC appointments, pardons and dozens of other decisions/actions. Some one else is not allowed, under the constitution, to make those decisions for him.

Even now the leftist media is patting itself on the back on its bravery NOW to report on biden’s mental collapse - while working to cover it up for four years.

Moving forward on this mental health issue could create a huge rift in the country and if Trump’s team is willing to go there, they have to be ready to all in on it. No half stepping.

TRUMP Watch –

Polls released Monday by Morning Consult, Rasmussen Reports, and Harvard CAPS/Harris showed Trump’s approval rating at 48%, 49%, and 47%, respectively, and a Daily Mail/J.L. Partners poll released Sunday showed his approval rating at 50%.

OBSERVATION - These are non-media polls, indicating they likely do not suffer from the leftist bias of those polls. Yet even those leftist polls show Trump excelling in approval ratings. Given the turbulence of these first 100+ days, support remains very strong.

Illegal Immigration –

The Supreme Court on Monday gave the Trump administration the green light to revoke special legal protections for thousands of Venezuelan immigrants, which could pave the way for them to be deported.

The high court granted an emergency application filed by the administration, meaning officials can move forward with reversing a decision made at the tail end of the Biden administration to extend protections for almost 350,000 Venezuelans under the federal Temporary Protected Status program.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-allows-trump-revoke-protected-status-thousands-venezuela-rcna205657?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR7TG36dqPbenoKGuQ-8b3n_I4ignQZyFuzAg8C9Fp0TcTJyhZTvRWyVuKYCYg_aem_5tGsrNDOEdrc9XEcSewnyA

OBSERVATION - The USSC is suffering from a split personality. Roberts is destroying the credibility of the courts and while this was the correct decision, he is allowing other corrupt decisions to stand.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Trump says his phone call with Putin was excellent: “Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War. The conditions for that will be negotiated between the two parties

Russia is ready to work on memorandum with Ukraine, that will include ceasefire - Putin after talk with Trump

OBSERVATION - Another big nothing burger. putin playing it for what it is worth.

Economic Impact –

Russia’s state statistical agency, Rosstat, reported on Friday that first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was only 1.4 percent, a steep decline from 4.5 percent growth in the last quarter of 2024.

Russian officials and economic analysts were expecting growth of around 1.7 percent, so the final figure was a disappointment even by those reduced expectations. Outside economists projected the economic slowdown would continue through April and beyond, with a recession potentially looming on the horizon. Russian officials insist growth would return to 2.5 percent by the end of the year, which would be still be lower than the average of four percent over the past few years.

The Moscow Times quoted analysts who said the steep decline in the first quarter of 2025 was caused by tight central bank policies, supply shortages, high inflation, reduced oil prices, and the long-delayed effect of sanctions against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Paradoxically, a possible peace agreement with Ukraine could turn into a new shock for the economy,” the Moscow Times wrote. Peace with Ukraine would presumably reduce heavy spending on defense, and Russia’s military-industrial complex accounted for about 40 percent of GDP growth last year.

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2025/05/19/report-russian-economic-growth-plummets-after-trump-takes-office/

OBSERVATION - Last paragraph of note. Russia’s GDP has been supported by military spending. Separate that from the mix and the GDP starts to really crash. It is uncertain how quickly the economy could shift back to a ‘peace’ time condition. But at this stage, it is beginning to look like even military spending is losing its ability to keep the GDP up.

This is where greater sanctions can come an bite Russia.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 50 - 80s with scattered showers and thundershowers.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense—including aircraft, air defense units, EW systems, and mobile fire teams—intercepted 93 drones (35 shot down, 58 jammed) out of 108 launched.

Russian losses per 20/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1030 men
+1 tank
+5 AFVs
+58 artillery
+1 MLRS

Summary —

Lower tempo on fighting both on the ground and in the air. Strongly suspect Russia is attempting to reposition forces for a renewed effort on the front. Indicators and talk suggests an effort into other oblasts in order to claim terrain by which they can ‘justify’ the demand for Ukraine to sign over the whole state for peace.

Europe / NATO General –

German Foreign Minister: As long as Putin is not serious about negotiations, Europe will impose more sanctions on Russia.

Kaja Kallas: The EU has approved its 17th sanctions package against Russia, targeting nearly 200 shadow fleet ships. New measures also address hybrid threats and human rights. More sanctions on Russia are in the works. The longer Russia wages war, the tougher our response

Pakistan / India – Threat Level - ADVISORY, May 19, 2025

Pakistan and India have reached a mutual understanding to reposition their armed forces back to peacetime deployments along the Line of Control and international border by May 30, according to senior officials familiar with the development. Military leadership from both countries, particularly the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs), are actively coordinating the phased pullback, sources told The News

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Further talks on ceasefire / hostage release gone.

- IDF continues to press in on remaining hamas strongholds

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Deadlock in Doha: Israeli delegation to return to Israel today

Qatari Prime Minister: Talks in Doha at a dead end, gaps between the sides are too great

***
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday criticized the leaders of France, the United Kingdom and Canada after they warned of “concrete actions” unless Jerusalem halts its war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

“By asking Israel to end a defensive war for our survival before Hamas terrorists on our border are destroyed, and by demanding a Palestinian state, the leaders in London, Ottawa, and Paris are offering a huge prize for the genocidal attack on Israel on Oct. 7, while inviting more such atrocities,” he said according to a statement from his office.

The statement reiterated that the war began when “Palestinian terrorists stormed our borders, murdered 1,200 innocent people and abducted over 250 more innocents to the dungeons of Gaza.”

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-77/

***
Amid controversy, Israel is allowing some food aid to enter Gaza in a very controlled manner, to prevent Hamas from hijacking it.

While the IDF did not specify how it intended to prevent aid from reaching Hamas once it enters Gaza, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich offered surprising support for the prime minister, as well as a possible solution to the problem.

“We will monitor the truck with a drone; if Hamas takes control of it, we will shoot,” Smotrich told Army Radio.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Israeli army Spokesperson: More than 100 targets were attacked in the past 24 hours, including the elimination of the commander of Hamas’s air force in the northern Gaza Strip

***
Reports of tens of thousands protestors are flooding the streets of Khan Yunis in the largest anti-Hamas protest to date—chanting “We want to live” and “Hamas out, out”

***
The iDF is currently active in 5 different Gaza Governorates:

1.North Gaza Governorate – including areas like Beit Hanoun, Jabalia, and surrounding northern zones.

2. Gaza Governorate – covering central Gaza City, including areas like Al-Shati, Zeitoun, and Al-Tuffah.

3. Deir al-Balah Governorate – visible through presence around Maghazi and Nuseirat camps.

4. Khan Yunis Governorate – active around Khan Yunis city and adjacent zones like Qizan al-Najjar and Abasan.

5. Rafah Governorate – near Rafah and the border zone.

https://x.com/osint613/status/1924727118283342177?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Israeli army says it killed a Hezbollah operative in a drone strike in southern Lebanon’s Houla earlier today. The operative was a member of the terror group’s elite Radwan force, the military adds

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli Forces stormed the Shuafat camp in Jerusalem with a military bulldozer in preparation for a demolition operation.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

UK, Canada and France joint statement; “If Israel does not cease the renewed military offensive and lift its restrictions on humanitarian aid, we will take further concrete actions in response”

Netanyahu says that the condemnation of Israel by London, Ottawa and Paris is a “huge reward” for Hamas

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

UK, Canada and France joint statement is a lot of hot air and shows how disconnected they are from the reality of the situation.

IDF methodically reducing Hamas defensive positions as ‘civilians’ relocate south. Remember, many of these ‘civilians’ actively participated in the atrocities of Oct 7 and contributed to the later abuse and deaths of hostages. They may be protesting in Khan Younis, but IMHO more for show than actual rebellion.

Houthis seemingly having trouble sustaining their one missile a day effort, now going several days between launches.

Iran is busy hanging itself with all the rope Trumps negotiations have given it - see below.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 16th - due to Trump visit to the region.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei launched a blistering verbal assault on the United States and President Donald Trump during a nationally televised speech, calling Trump a liar who brings shame on the American people, as the regime’s signature chant “Death to America” rang out repeatedly.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/05/19/death-to-america-irans-supreme-leader-calls-trump-liar-doubles-down-anti-u-s-rhetoric/

OBSERVATION - Someone needs to remove the shovel from Khamenei’s hands. Latest rhetoric from Iran is pushing them deeper and deeper into the red zone set by the US.

US military forces are nearing the stage where rotations will become necessary. US has to make the decision pretty soon.

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