Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

Follow up to Hands Off protests.

FO. Organizers reported a national turnout of 3-5 million protestors on Saturday.
And out of the 1 million they wanted in D.C., fewer than 50k showed up. That’s about 95% short of what they wanted.

https://x.com/grayzoneintel/status/1909682445571481836?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

OBSERVATION - These numbers are likely the reason there has been so little “Hands Off” related bleating since Saturday. Turnout far too minimal to indicate the left has gained any traction. Add to it the impression that the majority of the protestors were 50+, white females and the thoughts of using this for a more radical base have evaporated too.

Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

As warned, another rough day on the stock markets is expected. Dow futures down more than 500 points as China hits back at Trump’s tariffs, Apple shares decline.

More countries have reportedly gotten in contact with the Dept of Commerce to initial negotiations to go to Zero Tariffs with the US.

OBSERVATION - These are stiff losses, but no where near a Black Friday scenario. Global response to the tariffs indicate much of the shouting will be done in a short time. All except China which has vowed to dig its heels in and match the US tit for tat. See China below for more.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The USS Carl Vinson and its strike group are reportedly heading through the Indian Ocean toward CENTCOM, This places them within days of being in range of Iran.

***
According to NBC News, senior officials at the U.S. Department of Defense are considering a proposal to withdraw roughly 10,000 of the 20,000 troops deployed by the Biden Administration to Eastern Europe in 2022, as a response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and to bolster NATO’s Eastern Front. Some officials are concerned that a move such as this could reinforce fears that the U.S. is “abandoning” allies in Europe, while being seen as a weakening of deterrence towards Russia.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1909643138764828943?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

U.S. European Command Commander Gen. Christopher Cavoli and Defense official Katherine Thompson are testifying before the House Armed Services Committee as we speak. Cavoli recommended maintaining the current force posture in Europe while Thompson, who is the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, said that a security posture review is underway and “no decisions have been made.”

https://x.com/defensebulletin/status/1909657988819800350?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

***
President Trump & Pete Hegseth just FIRED Navy Vice Admiral Shoshana Chatfield.

Vice Admiral Shoshana Chatfield refused to hang pictures of The President of The United States and the Secretary of Defense at NATO

She has been fired for insubordination

Chatfield summed up the importance of equal rights by quoting Slide 35 of the Defense Equal Opportunity Management Institute’s informational presentation on Women’s Equality Day:

Investing in gender equality and women’s empowerment can unlock human potential on a transformational scale.”

She FA’d and FO’d

POLITICAL FRONT –

The U.S. warned on Tuesday that Chinese intelligence was using deceptive methods to target current and former U.S. government employees for recruitment.

The warning from the National Counterintelligence and Security Center comes amid mass federal firings led by Elon Musk’s Department of Government of Efficiency.

“Foreign intelligence entities, particularly those in China, are targeting current and former U.S. government (USG) employees for recruitment by posing as consulting firms, corporate headhunters, think tanks, and other entities on social and professional networking sites,” the center said in a bulletin.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/china-recruit-government-employees/2025/04/08/id/1206173/

OBSERVATION - This activity was warned about much earlier this year when cuts were announced.

***
U.S. Supreme Court has halted a federal judge’s ruling requiring several federal agencies to reinstate around 16,000 workers fired by the Trump administration

TRUMP Watch –

Trump hosted the LA Dodgers at the WH where he took some serious jabs at the democrat Senators from Kalifornia who were also present.

Illegal Immigration –

Reuters reporting, the Trump Administration announced they would be invoking a 1996 law that allows them to fine illegals $998 per day for refusing to leave America. The law was enforced for the first time in 2018, during President Trump’s first term in office.
The outlet notes that the Trump Administration plans to apply the penalties retroactively for up to five years, possibly resulting in fines of over $1 million.
Illegals also face property seizure for refusal to comply.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/04/trump-cracks-down-illegal-aliens-be-fined-nearly/

OBSERVATION - This action went thru courts under Trump 45 and were held up. More carrots for the illegals to vamos on their own.

China –

White House Press Secretary confirms 104% tariffs on China are NOW in effect.

U.S. President Trump’s retaliatory tariffs of up to 104% against China went into effect at 12:01am EST. Additional measures have also been put in place to prevent companies from circumventing the tariffs, including a 90% or $75 per package tax on all goods coming from China or Hong Kong beginning May 2, 2025 at 12:01am EST, which will then increase to $150 per package on June 1, 2025. These taxes will apply to any goods ordered from China that are transferred by a Chinese national carrier to the U.S. Postal Service, it does not apply to goods which are transported completely by private companies like FEDEX, UPS, or DHL.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1909803858970243257?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

This will likely cripple Chinese e-commerce sites like SHEIN, Temu or Alibaba, who almost all use China Post or other Chinese transport companies before packages are turned over to the U.S. Postal Service.

OBSERVATION - This is a slap in the face of China that they cannot miss. This may also have other effects China will not like. Some commentary suggests that as tariffs increase against China, it will be forced in some measures to dump products on other countries - swamping them. This in turn may cause those countries to raise tariffs against China, further putting them in a pinch.
China is allowing the yuan to collapse, an effort designed to make Chinese products more affordable / cheaper versus a strong dollar - possibly counter acting high tariffs.

As the rest of the world is capitulating to Trump’s tariffs, China will increasingly become isolated and its economy will suffer far more than the US.

***
The yuan is absolutely disintegrating.

***

Ukrainian forces recently captured Chinese nationals fighting in the Russian military in several areas of Donetsk Oblast.

China’s foreign ministry on captured soldiers has now said in a statement that it is currently “verifying the situation” with Ukraine and that it has always asked its citizens to stay away from areas of armed conflict and not to get involved in armed conflict.

OBSERVATION - These reportedly are volunteers, recruited by Russia, unlike the troops sent in by N Korea.
China may well try to distance itself from this as Trump has warned of increased sanctions if China has been found supporting the Russian war effort in a tangible way.

Russia -

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Chinese recruits fighting for Russia captured, see China above

Economic Impact –

Russia is facing a potential budget crisis as the price of oil plummets on trade war fears.

Russia’s Central Bank warned Tuesday that falling global oil prices could strain the country’s public finances, with oil revenues already falling 10% year-on-year in the first quarter.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 30-40 degree range with rain / showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnightt, Ukrainian forces shot down 32 Shahed drones out of 55 launched by Russia. Another 8 were suppressed by either electronic warfare means or were just lost in location without negative consequences.

A massive drone attack hit Russia overnight—158 UAVs targeted multiple regions, including the Mozdok airbase, home to Russian bombers. Drones were spotted in Kuban, Rostov, Saratov, and even Oryol. Damage assessment is still ongoing.

Russian losses per 09/04/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff

+1270 men
+4 tanks
+10 AFVs
+52 artillery
+1 AD system

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

(ISW). Russian forces have spent the last 13 months and lost over five divisions’ worth of tanks and thousands of troops attacking towards Pokrovsk and trying to seize the town.

Summary —

Small numbers of Shahed drone fired, and a substantial number getting thru.

Moderate levels of fighting with no significant territory changes. Note the losses in the Russia effort to capture Pokrovsk. Ukraine counterattacks and otherwise stiff defenses have stopped and in some cases pushed Russian forces away from the town. The armor losses alone will be impossible to replace for years to come as mothballed vehicles are getting scarce and production is still slow due to sanctions. This is why I question the reports of a whole new offensive by Russia. They are just able to sustain replacements of current losses, let along build up the forces necessary for a significant offensive. However, I do not put a Russian attempt at another offensive beyond them, as putin has doubled and tripled down on defeating Ukraine militarily and stiff arming talks on a ceasefire.

Poland –

United States Army Europe and Africa announces the planned repositioning of U.S. military equipment and personnel from Jasionka, Poland, to other sites in the country. This transition is part of a broader strategy to optimize U.S. military operations, improving the level of support to Allies and partners while also enhancing efficiencies.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- IDF continues to expand control over Gaza.

- Massive airstrikes against Houthi targets

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Haaretz, citing Israeli security sources: The army has begun expanding the Morag corridor and is destroying buildings along its length.

The IDF says ground operations continue across Gaza, with over 45 airstrikes in the past day targeting rocket sites, weapons depots, and terror compounds. Troops advanced in Rafah and Shuja’iyya, uncovering tunnels and eliminating terrorists.

Reports that Israel has only detected and destroyed 25% of all the tunnels in Gaza. Many exist in the areas biden prohibited Israel to attack during his administration.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli army: The air force bombed a weapons depot belonging to Hezbollah’s air defense system in the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon. A second Israeli raid targeted the town of Harbata in Baalbek, eastern Lebanon.

UNIFIL: Our forces are still present on the ground in southern Lebanon, and we are monitoring the continued Israeli presence and airstrikes.

***
Hezbollah is now smuggling weapons by sea, with Iran’s Quds Force creating a faster route that bypasses Syria and uses direct maritime transfers to Lebanon. Units 190 and 700 of the Quds Force are responsible for these transfers, overseen by commanders Shahriari and Ael Parsat. Hezbollah’s control of the Beirut seaport has reportedly made the smuggling process easier.

***
A senior Hezbollah official in an interview with Reuters:
The organization would be willing to discuss disarming and transferring its weapons to the Lebanese army on the condition that Israel fully withdraws from Lebanese territory and ceases its attacks.
NOTE - Unclear, but likely that part of the demand is Israeli withdrawal FIRST - then they will comply.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Massive explosions reported atop Mount Nuqum to the east of the Yemeni capital of Sana’a in Houthi-controlled Western Yemen, as smoke pours from military sites on and inside the mountain that have been targeted by tonight’s wave of U.S. strikes.

The Houthis claim they downed a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drone last night over Al-Jawf Governorate—marking the third such incident in just ten days.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Indonesia has announced that they are ready to take in Palestinians affected by the war in Gaza.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

In Gaza, Israel continues to methodically take control over more and more territory. Many of the airstrikes are precision ones fired by drones, minimizing collateral damages.

Lebanon, Hezbollah’s offer to disarm should be taken with a grain of salt as it is a classic regional ‘offer’ designed to delay and deny Israel while giving them time to restructure and re-arm. More Hezbollah arms depots continue to go up in a puff of smoke.

Houthis continue to lose offensive capabilities against Israel and the US fleet. Attacks against both have dropped significantly. The massive air strikes against the underground facilities on Mount Nuqum strongly suggests that B2s and massive penetrators were at work. Day time assessment of strikes is probably underway and they area may see followup strikes again tonight to achieve the desired level of destruction.

Iran, the clock is ticking down. The Vinson is within days of being on station in CENTCOM and ready for operations against Iran.

Iran –
- May 5th - end of negotiation window

Jerusalem Post: Under Trump’s plan, Iran will be permitted to keep a civilian nuclear program for electricity—while any military nuclear activity remains strictly off-limits.

OBSERVATION - Iran is very unlikely to accept such a condition. Their dogmatic goal of the elimination of the nation of Israel is too strong to permit them to deny themselves the golden ring of a bomb.

Meanwhile, the US buildup in the region continues to the extent that is is unlikely that this is a bluff to force a deal. The growing reality is that the only way to stop Iran’s program is to destroy its capabilities the old fashioned way.

Iraq -

Iran has sent long-range missiles to its proxies in Iraq for the first time, constituting a major escalation against the US and Israel, according to the British paper The Times.

Citing intelligence sources who monitored the 1,000-mile border between Iraq and Iran, the paper said that the missiles were transferred last week.

“Iran has recently transferred missiles to Shia militias in Iraq, including new models with longer range, which have not been given in the past to those militias. It’s a desperate move by the Iranians, risking the stability of Iraq,” one source said.

The US has pressured Iraq to force the Shi’ite militias in the country to disarm, with the recent development contradicting reports that the proxies had signalled they would cave in to the pressure.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/iran-eastern-states/artc-iran-transfers-long-range-missiles-to-iraq-in-major-escalation-report

OBSERVATION - This is conflicting with reports of Iranian backed militias moving to put down their arms to avoid being targeted by US forces. Iran must have placed a lot of force on Iraqi elements to look the other way for these larger, longer ranged weapons to be allowed into the country.
Both the stand down and this article suggest that they may part of a misinformation plan by Iran.

Central / South America General-

Panama - SecDef at the Panama Canal: “China did not build this canal. China does not operate this canal. And China will not weaponize this canal….Together [ the U.S. and Panama] will take back the Panama Canal from China’s influence.”

The mothballed jungle warfare school in Panama may be reactivated.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

Chuck Schumer has a history of trying to incite violence against conservatives, especially conservative Supreme Court justices. Today he was given an opportunity to distance himself from his party’s violent attacks on Teslas and Tesla dealerships. Instead of criticizing those attacks, he doubled down:
Chuck Schumer is asked to denounce violence against Tesla — he REFUSES, then angrily attacks Elon Musk instead:

“I can’t talk about Tesla, but Elon Musk is a disaster for America.”

https://x.com/WesternLensman/status/1909812151973192082

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/04/schumer-endorses-violence.php

OBSERVATION - Continuing to confirm the tendencies to resort to violence to obtain political goals. Support at this level of democrat leadership will eventually provide foundational support to later violence as ‘justified’.

***
Top Democrat campaign strategist, Lauren Young, took to Facebook to call on Iran assassinate President Trump. This isn’t fringe rhetoric, it’s emblematic. The Democratic Party is the party of political violence.

https://x.com/amuse/status/1909894072937951603

OBSERVATION - More calls for violence.

***
Initial view of the coming weekend protests indicate a hodgepodge of various themes continuing ranging from DOGE to anti-Tesla to pro-hamas. No large scale events are on the chart, and those being announced seem to be peaceful but vocal. As normal, violence and vandalism can breakout to some extent. Keep alert to local events and keep your situational awareness high.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Mar 18, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
- Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month, first part of April.

***
Globally, the Christian world is approaching Holy Week and an increased potential for islamic terror strikes on Christian celebrations. This will increase as Easter approaches. Large churches across the US should have security elements at a heightened state of preparedness and alertness.

Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

Trump reduced the tariffs on at least 75 countries to a minimal 10% while raising it on China to 125%. The reduction is for 90 days and will essentially give the benefitted countries time to complete negotiations for zero tariff agreements.

Markets immediately took off like a rocket, setting a new one-day record gain. Metals gained as well.

See China below for more specific details.

OBSERVATION - Some are claiming Trump folded. I don’t claim to know what is on Trump’s mind, but I have a guess. Trump knows the tariff is a very sharp tool that can cut both ways. By unimaginably laying out the tariffs earlier in the week, he slapped nations with a 2x4 and shocked them into compliance. He quickly got most of what he wanted in short order, so pulled it back down - notice he kept the 10% tariff levels in place - didn’t go to zero, and they didn’t whine.

But his ongoing fight with China is just beginning (see China below). With his quick and strong tariff application and then drawback, he has placed China between a rock and a hard place. Imports from China are coming to a screeching halt. Competitors to China getting a big break, while the Chinese manufacturing behemoth, which has been struggling for the past several years, looks at hitting a brick wall. China’s economy depends heavily on exports - particularly to the US. How long can their industry go without sales?

I noted yesterday that China tries to dump its products on other countries, those countries will raise trade barriers as well, to prevent their markets from being swamped. This will further pressure the Chinese economy.

One aspect that Trump may have recognized is that countries like Japan were suddenly dumping their Treasury notes - items that have been funding the US deficit. A balancing act that Trump was likely watching as well.

For now, a 90 day window for a global trade reset. How hard will China want to push their self destruction with the tariff tit-for-tat?

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth believes that climate change mitigation efforts have no measurable effect on global temperatures and do not improve military readiness. “The Dept. of Defense does not do climate change crap. We do training and warfighting,” he said.

***
Multiple U.S. Air Force KC-135R and KC-46A “Pegasus” Aerial-Refueling Tankers departed yesterday from RAF Mildenhall heading towards the Middle East, likely towing fighter and/or strike aircraft, as the military buildup in the region against Iran continues.

OBSERVATION - Speculation on the dragging of fighters to the Mideast, but this matches the pattern in the past for such deployments.

POLITICAL FRONT –

ACLU is trying to appeal the USSC decision clearing the use of existing laws to deport terror gangs.

China -

Chinese Announce Retaliatory Measures to U.S. Tariffs
The Chinese Ministry of Finance (MOF) has announced that the additional 34% tariffs on U.S. imports will now be raised to 84%. These will be effective April 10, 2025. This comes after the widespread U.S. reciprocal tariffs went into effect at 12:01 earlier this morning. Additionally, Chinese and European decision-makers have been in contact to discuss the ongoing global financial turmoil, according to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA). The European Union (EU) is also expected to hit back with commensurate actions today

WSJ - China GDP Growth Could Fall 2.4 Percentage Points With 100% Tariffs, Goldman Says
China growth was already “anemic” at 5%. If you cut that in half (per above), there will be serious domestic chaos in China.

According to Reuters, Chinese e-commerce companies on Amazon are preparing to significantly increase their prices or totally halt sales to the United States, following the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China.

Reuters: Chinese yuan falls to its worst low since 2007.
China’s leadership is holding an emergency meeting!

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on a secondary effect of the Trump tariffs:
“They’re [China] in a deflationary recession, slash depression now. They’re trying to export their way out of it, and we can’t let them do that.”

Trump -

“Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114309144289505174

OVERALL OBSERVATION - As also noted under Economy above, this tariff war is set to hurt China a lot more than the US at this stage. They are becoming economically isolated and to keep their economy afloat Xi will have to take some serious measures with govt support to its ‘capitalistic’ manufacturing system.

Trump currently has the upper hand with China.

Russia -

As new rounds of ‘peace’ talks resume, Russia continues to drag its feet thinking that it can effectively win on the ground and obtain its objectives that way rather than get tied up in an agreement.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 30-40 degree range with rain / showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Shahed drone attack overnight after some days of relative quietness.. A total of 145 Shahed drones were launched of which 85 were shot down and another 49were lost in location without consequences or suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 10/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1420 men
+3 tanks
+12 AFVs
+70 artillery

Sumy -

Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Petrushivka, Maryine, Turya, Mala Rybytsya, Velykyy Prykil, Krasnopillya, Samotoyivka, Myropilske, Uhroyidy of Sumy region, Huliaipole of Zaporizhzhia region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports

Summary —

Some observers note increasing attacks in the Sumy region by bombing and artillery fire. The majority of Russian airstrikes are occurring in this area. It is indicative of precursor battlefield preparation for a potential ground offensive in the region. These cities are due east of Sumy and that line is the shortest distance from there to the Russian border.
Increased attacks of this nature lend support to beliefs that the Sumy axis is the next to be tested by Russia.

After the initial assault by Russia in 2022, Sumy was essentially surrounded by the fresh and well equipped Russian forces. Tenacious defense and later offensive cleared them out. Now Russia has a much more poorly trained and equipped army that barring massive numbers of troops and equipment, will face a much stiffer and well prepared Ukraine defense.

OSINT and other war analysts do note that the currently understood Russian forces available for such an assault are woefully inadequate for the task and that any concentrated assault would only yield minor territorial capture past the border.

Ukraine ADA continues to struggle against Shahed attacks, as numbers appear to be on the rise again.

Europe / NATO General –

The UK and France are hosting a meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing” in Brussels today, bringing together defense ministers from around 30 countries to discuss security guarantees and lasting peace for Ukraine. Organized by UK Defence Secretary John Healey and French Minister Sébastien Lecornu, the meeting aims to strengthen partner support for Ukraine’s security and explore further measures to ensure stability in the region.

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1910235710130422112?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- France threatening to recognize “Palestine” later this summer.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

French President Emmanuel Macron reveals plans to recognize a Palestinian state within months, possibly during a UN conference in June. PA welcomes the move, while Foreign Minister Sa’ar criticizes: A unilateral recognition of a fictional Palestinian state will be a prize for terror and a boost for Hamas.

Explaining his motivation, Macron said, “I will do it (...) because I believe that at some point it will be right and because I also want to participate in a collective dynamic – which must also allow all those who defend Palestine to recognize Israel in turn, which many of them do not do.”

Macron emphasized that recognizing a Palestinian state would also clarify France’s opposition to groups and governments that deny Israel’s legitimacy. “Such recognition would allow France to be clear in our fight against those who deny Israel’s right to exist – which is the case with Iran – and to commit ourselves to collective security in the region,” he stated.

The announcement was met with approval from the Palestinian Authority (PA).

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/406679

***
Vice President JD Vance met with captivity survivors and families of hostages still held in Gaza.
Vance reaffirmed the administration’s commitment to securing the release of the remaining 59 hostages.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

IDF forces meeting very little resistance from Hamas et al as they move to take control of more territory.

Numerous airstrikes on Hamas targets across the territory.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israel is warning Hezbollah not to try to rebuild underground weapons storage facilities in Beirut. Imagery shows an effort to construct such a bunker beneath construction of a new building.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli official confirms that Turkish and Israeli officers are discussing the establishment of a deconfliction mechanism between the two militaries in Syria

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Yemeni channels are reporting that Mahdi al-Mashat, Chairman of the Supreme Political Council of Yemen and Houthi Field Marshall, was seriously injured alongside a number of other Houthi military and intelligence officials who were killed, as a result of a recent U.S. strike near the capital city of Sana’a in Western Yemen.

Houthis fired a couple missiles towards Israel, both reportedly broke up over Saudi Arabia and fell to the ground with no reported injuries.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Lawyers hired by Hamas have shown up in Great Britain to sue to have it removed from the country’s terror list. The thoughts are that the now islamic leaning country and courts will grant such a motion.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza sees Israel slowly tightening the noose. The goal is to pressure Hamas to offer more and more hostages at one time for release.

Lebanon - remains relatively calm except for drone fired missiles targeting vehicles containing Hezbollah leaders.

Syria - Relatively calm.

Iran - Indicators continue to grow pointing to preparations for a significant military operation between the US and Israel against Iranian nuclear program.

Iran –
- May 5th - end of negotiation window

Iran states that the threats of airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities may lead to Iran transferring nuclear material to undisclosed locations in an effort to hide them

***
President Trump repeated his threat to use military force if Iran won’t agree to end its nuclear program, saying Israel would play a key role in such action.. “I’m not asking for much ... but they can’t have a nuclear weapon,” Trump told reporters .

OBSERVATION - This Saturday’s make or break indirect direct talks between Iran and the US are not expected to result in any breakthroughs or agreements. It is already pretty much expected that Iran will use them to stall any US / Israeli actions.

Latest warning by Iran - to relocate nuclear material (most likely a reference to the stockpile of 60% enriched uranium) won’t do them much good if all their centrifuges are blown to bits. Same with the necessary facilities to take the 90% enriched uranium (if they have any) and conduct the final processing to produce the core of a nuclear bomb. If they even have those facilities left over as well.

As they say, planning is based on the last war. Iran’s armoring of its nuclear sites was based on a scenario of an Israeli attack alone, with limited assets and the threat of missile retaliation sealing the deal. Second, the US being unwilling to commit to a military strike. The scenario has changed. Israel has demonstrated the ability to launch a crippling strike on its own. The US under Trump is positioning its forces for a real, hard strike on Iran, not just a token hit.

As such, Iran’s preparations are now suddenly weak. Its air defenses drastically cut down and its ballistic missile threat shown to be woefully inadequate an ineffective. The US with overt display of about 1/3 of the active B2 force - capable of dropping the massive penetrator bombs - is an exclamation point to the build up. Their underground facilities are vulnerable to these bombs they may have thought they would never face.

When the trigger is pulled on the operation, Iranian response in total is uncertain. Will they be willing to draw all into a much larger regional conflict? Depends on how successful the initial airstrikes are.

Any way, the clock continues to count down.

Turkey –

Turkish Foreign Minister: Negotiations between the United States and Iran will address all issues, and the most important thing is to reach an agreement.

***
Turkish Ministry of Defense:

The first technical meeting with Israel was held yesterday in Azerbaijan on the establishment of a de-escalation mechanism to prevent unwanted incidents in Syria.

The Israeli delegation had to bypass Turkey to reach Baku to hold the Syria deconfliction line meeting.

Mexico -

The Trump administration is considering launching drone strikes on drug cartels in Mexico as part of an ambitious effort to combat criminal gangs trafficking narcotics across the southern border, according to six current and former U.S. military, law enforcement and intelligence officials with knowledge of the matter.

OBSERVATION - Absent more overt Mexican collaboration, this could increase cartel attacks within the US as well as threaten US citizens in Mexico.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

Weekend approaching and a lot of scattered protests across the country. Many target Tesla, Gaza, DOGE etc. Low probability for violence, though local acts can occur. Keep situationally aware this weekend if you are in areas prone to protests or protests are announced for your area.

***
Growing attention to the large, Islamic enclave growing in the Sugarland TX region and their aggressive efforts to impose Shriah law on the residents . Federal investigators looking at laws being broken as well as civil rights violations.

***
Passover is this Saturday as well as the start of Holy Week (Palm Sunday thru Easter)

Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

WARNING - still more rough waters for the stock/bond markets as the week ends

***
US Inflation Declines to 2.4% for the First Time Since September

***
U.S. stock index futures were turning slightly higher after falling Friday on the news China increased its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%, escalating a trade war that could disrupt global trade and trigger an economic downturn.

Yesterday, the Dow lost roughly 1,000 points, closing down 2.5%.

Gold reached new highs yesterday, silver is continuing to recover.

OBSERVATIONS - Stocks will continue to be bouncy today as now the tariff war narrows down to essentially US v China.

***
(FO) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. making new trade deals with allies will lay the groundwork for a unified trade front against China. Bessent also warned the EU that turning to China in the U.S.-China trade war would be “cutting your own throat.”

OBSERVATIONS - Analysts are noting that the US and China have started a ‘hard’ decoupling of trade. The US cutting off China supply to start becoming internally sustainable and to build a hedge around china by other nations to contain it as well. China increased the tariff today and expect Trump to retaliate even more. See more under China below.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Vinson CSG has entered CENTCOM AoR. Expect a few more days until reaching their deployment areas.

***
The Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), Admiral Samuel J. Paparo revealed today in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee that an entire U.S. Army “Patriot” Missile Battalion, consisting of 4-6 MIM-104 “Patriot” Surface-to-Air Missile Batteries, was recently transferred from his area-of-responsibility to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). Admiral Paparo further revealed that the transfer, which appears to be wrapping up according to flight trackers, required approximately 73 C-17 Globemaster III flights from Asia to the Middle East.

OBSERVATION - Confirmation of the large numbers of cargo flights that have been reported over the past week. Note this is a BATTALION deployment - 4 to 6 batteries of Patriots.

***
At least 6 U.S. Air Force F-15E “Strike Eagles” from RAF Lakenheath arrived yesterday at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, as the pre-positioning of military assets continues.

***
Colonel Susan Meyers, the Commanding Officer of the 821st Space Base Group, which overseeing Pituffik Space Base in Greenland, has been removed from command for “loss of confidence in her ability to lead” spurred by a base-wide email she sent on March 31st, days after a visit to the base by Vice-President JD Vance

in which she attempted to distance herself from several controversial statements made by the Vice-President.

In the email, Colonel Meyers appeared to push back against several statements made during the visit by Vice-President Vance critical of Denmark and Greenland, stating, “I spent the weekend thinking about Friday’s visit — the actions taken, the words spoken, and how it must have affected each of you. I do not presume to understand current politics, but what I do know is the concerns of the U.S. administration discussed by Vice-President Vance on Friday are not reflective of Pituffik Space Base.” Adding, “I commit that, for as long as I am lucky enough to lead this base, all of our flags will fly proudly — together,” in an apparent attempt towards unity for the thousands of Danes, Greenlanders, Americans who work at Pituffik.

OBSERVATION - As a veteran, I am totally appalled by the action of this colonel. When slick willie won the presidency, it was made very clear there will be no bad mouthing - even though the military was solidly against his election. She should be losing her bird over this as well.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Congress active on getting budget passed, as well as other legislation regarding citizen voting and others. Movement forward on reigning in district judges may be what is stimulating the USSC to interject in these lawfare suits and national TROs by activist judges.

Illegal Immigration –

A federal judge on Thursday sided with the Trump administration by ruling that every migrant who is in the United States illegally must register with the federal government

The Department of Homeland Security announced in February that all illegal migrants will be required to register with the government, and that those who did not could face fines or prosecution.

Judge Trevor Neil McFadden agreed that all illegal migrants over the age of 13 need to register, according to the Associated Press. Those migrants will need to provide fingerprints and their addresses. The registration process will also include people in the country illegally for more than 30 days, such as Canadians who come south for the winter.

https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/federal-judge-rules-every-illegal-migrant-us-must-register-federal-government

OBSERVATION - Will illegals willingly submit? Unlikely most will not, but this does provide an addition tool for deporting and once word gets out, after a few example cases, self deportation may rise. Note the 30 day limit for Canadian snowbirds - hmmmmm.

China -

U.S. tariffs on China have now reached a total of 145% - White House.

***
China’s Finance Ministry: “The U.S. imposition of abnormally high tariffs on China seriously violates international and economic trade rules, basic economic laws and common sense and is completely unilateral bullying and coercion.”

OBSERVATION - China trying to paint itself as the victim in this tariff war.

North/South Korea –

North Korea plans to send “thousands” of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, says U.S. INDOPACOM Commander Adm. Paparo. These missiles are known to be highly inaccurate and could hit civilian targets.

OBSERVATION - This will likely generate additional sanctions on both NK and Russia.

Russia -

Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff has reportedly landed in Russia’s St. Petersburg and is expected to meet President Putin today.

If no ceasefire is reached by the end of the month, Trump could move forward with additional sanctions on Russia either through executive power or by asking Congress to pass new sanctions legislation, a source familiar with the issue told Axios.

Logistics –

OBSERVATION - Russia’s deeper attacks have not been specifically towards only military targets, but have been very liberal towards clearly civilian targets. This has begun a new terroristic war in an effort to demoralize Ukraine while they drag out any ceasefire talks. So they care very little about ‘accuracy’ at this stage.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 30-40 degree range with rain / showers

RUMINT –

BBC reporting that Russia plans to encircle Sumy in an upcoming offensive.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 39 Shahed drones at Ukraine. A total of 24 were shot down and another 13 were lost in location without negative consequences or were suppressed by electronic warfare means.

Russian losses per 11/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1210 men
+1 tanks
+15 AFVs
+61 artillery
+1 MLRS

Summary —

Relatively low numbers of drones launched, and moderately heavy fighting along the front.

I know I’ve discussed Russia’s lack of troops and equipment for any upcoming offensive, and the rumors that Russia intends to encircle Sumy just raises it to the surface again. In 2022, Russia had a degree of surprise, relatively well trained troops and fully equipped mechanized forces when they nearly encircled Sumy. Today, the situation is very different. With well over 900K casualties and Russia fielding more and more T62 and T54/55 vintage tanks as well as post WW2 MTLV apc as well as 1950 vintage pick up trucks to carry personnel, Russia is no position to mount the size of an attack necessary to even come close to encircling Sumy.

Another factor is Ukrainian readiness. The Kursk attack was along one of the main axis such a Sumy assault would occur along, there will be no surprise assault. Ukraine still holds a much smaller area, but still smack dab in the middle to such an axis. Secondly, Ukraine is still maintaining the drone advantage which has decimated smaller, battalion sized Russian armor/mechanized assaults in the recent months.

Finally, Russia has to scrape up enough soldiers and equipment for what will need to be a substantial force to accomplish this. Currently, they are just able to meet numbers necessary to replace losses. (40K-60K per month).

Some other, related talk suggests that Russia want to at least gain enough terrain to spring board demands that Ukraine surrender the rest of the Oblast to it via these ‘peace’ talks.

Europe / NATO General –

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a 90-day postponement of the EU’s countermeasures against Trump’s tariffs

NOTE - Hungary has already threatened to veto such an action.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- IDF continues to take more terrain in Gaza

- Forces at high alert as Passover comes

——— GENERAL ——————————-

IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has raised the IDF’s level of alert, and the presence of combat troops, ahead of the Passover holiday.

***
The International Court of Justice, a U.N. agency in The Hague, set five days of public hearings, starting late this month, in the U.N. General Assembly’s case against Israel for banning the U.N. Relief and Works Agency.

One of the Israeli laws banned UNRWA, whose ties to Gazan terror groups Israel has documented, from operating in the Jewish state, including throughout Jerusalem. The United Nations considers part of the Jewish capital to be Palestinian territory.

The Israeli law mandated that all UNRWA facilities, including administrative offices, schools and health clinics, be shuttered. Earlier this week, Israeli authorities gave six UNRWA educational institutions in Jerusalem notice that they will be closed in 30 days.

The other Israeli law forbids officials of the Jewish state from communicating with UNRWA officials. The United Nations has said that these developments will make it very hard, if not impossible, for UNRWA to carry out its work in Gaza. UNRWA operates under a mandate from the U.N. General Assembly.

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-77/

OBSERVATION - UNRWA collusion with Hamas has been very well documented since the war with Hamas began. UN failure to recognize this - in fact going as far as to try to cover it up - doesn’t lend credibility either.

***
Rumors of a new hostage release / ceasefire plan.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

The IDF calls on residents of the Shuja’iyah and Zeitoun neighborhoods and the areas east of Gaza City to evacuate immediately.

IDF forces in Rafah eliminated Ahmed Iyad Muhammad Farhat, Hamxs’s top sniper in the Tel Sultan battalion. Over the past 24 hours, Israeli forces have intensified operations across Gaza, killing multiple terrorists and targeting terror infrastructure.

Several Israeli airstrikes targeted areas in the Shuja’iyya and al-Tuffah neighborhoods of Gaza City.

Warplanes launched a raid on the Al-Manara neighborhood, south of Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The US has closed in on the Lebanese government: it is blocking financial aid from Saudi Arabia and Qatar until Hezbollah is disbanded, Lebanon’s foreign minister confirms.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

See Turkey on talks with Israel to deconflict incidents over/in Syria.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthis continued to get pounded and their military responses are getting further apart.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Russia’s representative to the Security Council: - We are concerned about Israeli statements regarding military plans to remain in Syria indefinitely. - Israel’s actions are a violation of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, regardless of who rules in Damascus.

***
US Central Command announced that the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson, with a fleet of F-35 aircraft, has arrived in its area of responsibility in the Middle East and is operating in parallel with the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman. It is expected that it will take a couple more days before it is in an optimal station to launch against either the Houthis or Iran.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza continues to see IDF take more ground. Action is methodical because engineering elements are going forward first to eliminate IEDs and other bomb/booby traps Hamas was seen to be installing in previous months. Hamas has not been challenging IDF on the ground. Israel now reportedly controls over 30% of Gaza.

Lebanon is about to feel the pinch of FO stage of failing to aggressively disarm and remove Hezbollah from the region south of the Litiani River. Money was one of the carrots offered to the govt to get this done, and it has failed.

Syria is relatively stable, but Israeli / Turkish talks are starting out rough. See Syria on activation of large tent cities to house Gazan refugees.

Iran - see below.

Iran –
- May 5th - end of negotiation window

Iran is threatening to expel IAEA inspectors and cut ties with the UN nuclear watchdog. - Reuters

***
Iran is considering proposing an interim nuclear deal with the U.S. as a means to buy more time than the two-month deadline set by President Donald Trump, Axios reported Thursday.

Trump on Wednesday repeated his threat to use military force if Iran did not agree to end its nuclear program. Trump set the two-month deadline in a letter last month to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Iran, however, does not think two months is enough time to put together a comprehensive deal, according to the report.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/iran-nuclear-talks/2025/04/10/id/1206479/

OBSERVATION - As noted previously, delay, delay, delay is the word here with Iran. They are whining that two months (actually only one month left) is too short of a period to come to an agreement. Note that they’ve been playing the negotiation game for over 4 years, even into Trump 45 years. Trump wants to have the appearance of being ‘fair’ and will listen to their ‘offer’, but it is unlikely that it will go far enough to warrant further discussions.

Iran’s intransigence is also reflected by the recent threat to expel IAEA inspectors and cut ties with the UN nuclear watchdog. These clowns would be a key component to any US / Iran agreement to monitor for compliance. Iran has them wrapped around their little finger and has gotten away with a ton of violations of the current ‘agreements’.

US buildup in the region continues as the USS Vinson’ CSG is almost ready to go. As noted, more fighter / bomber assets are arriving in the region. The deployment of a Patriot BATTALION is also very significant.

I think that Iran’s wiggle room time is running out. Trump wants to get this problem dealt with early and quickly. Prolonged negotiations that will go nowhere are not on his checklist. He may go past the current estimate May 5 deadline, but not much more IMHO.

Syria -

Two massive tent cities in northern Syria, near the Turkish border, are being repurposed to resettle hundreds of thousands of Gazans through Turkish and Qatari efforts, according to Syrian sources. The two camps, one between Al-Bab and Akhtarin, and the other east of Azaz, were originally built during the Syrian civil war to keep displaced Syrians from entering Turkish territory

OBSERVATION - Getting Gazans out of Gaza is a key component in the US / Israeli plan for taking out Hamas completely. There are nearly 2 million in Gaza who are being pushed into an ever decreasing area. Large numbers of them must be cleared out of the territory so that Israel can focus down on the remaining Hamas forces.

Turkey –

Israel and Turkey failed to reach a deal on preventing conflict in Syria during their first round of talks, Kan News reports.

Follow-on rounds are being scheduled.

Mexico -

President Trump just announced that he is tired of Mexico violating their treaty with Texas and stealing their water and “that ends now!”

Here’s what he announced:

Mexico OWES Texas 1.3 million acre-feet of water under the 1944 Water Treaty, but Mexico is unfortunately violating their Treaty obligation. This is very unfair, and it is hurting South Texas Farmers very badly. Last year, the only Sugar Mill in Texas CLOSED, because Mexico has been stealing the water from Texas Farmers. Ted Cruz has been leading the fight to get South Texas the water it is owed, but Sleepy Joe refused to lift a finger to help the Farmers.

THAT ENDS NOW! I will make sure Mexico doesn’t violate our Treaties, and doesn’t hurt our Texas Farmers. Just last month, I halted water shipments to Tijuana until Mexico complies with the 1944 Water Treaty. My Agriculture Secretary, Brooke Rollins, is standing up for Texas Farmers, and we will keep escalating consequences, including TARIFFS and, maybe even SANCTIONS, until Mexico honors the Treaty, and GIVES TEXAS THE WATER THEY ARE OWED!

https://therightscoop.com/breaking-president-trump-says-he-will-force-mexico-to-stop-violating-treaty-with-texas/

OBSERVATION - Mexico may be seeing another ‘find out’ moment here. IF I were Trump, I’d also would trap the raw sewage being pumped into the US and send it back to Mexico as well.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

Forward Observer folks are reporting another “hands off” protest for Saturday, April 19th. IMHO, the last protest was underwhelming and seemed to lack certain enthusiasm with a lot of astroturfing needed.

Still a plethora of other protests across the nation on a wide range of grievances. Low probability of violence, though there continues to be potential for some violence/vandalism locally. Maintain situational awareness.

***
Passover today as well as the start of Holy Week tomorrow (Palm Sunday thru Easter)

Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

The stock markets finished the week higher as the pause in the tariff wars stabilized out.

US wholesale prices unexpectedly fell in March by the most since October 2023 - Bloomberg

Gold and Silver have rebounded over the past week, with gold reaching record highs.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Democrats are planning to hold “Peoples’ Town Halls” in Republican districts during Congress’ Easter recess. This is in addition to having operatives disrupt republican town halls. It seems that the democrats have recovered from some of the shock of the Trump win and are leaning heavily into trying to win back at least the House next year.

OBSERVATION - Note the use of the term “Peoples” Under communism the term is very commonly used - largely for propaganda purposes as the only ‘peoples’ were the party elite.

***
After finding $382 million in fraudulent unemployment payments since 2020, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) identified California, New York and Massachusetts as the primary culprits.

The three Democrat-led states accounted for $305 million in improper claim payments, DOGE said Thursday.

The group added that California also accounted for 68% of the benefits that were dispensed under former President Joe Biden to parolees identified by federal authorities as being on the government’s terrorist watchlist, or who had criminal records.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dem-states-blame-most-nearly-400-million-unemployment-fraud

OBSERVATION - Corruption like this has been so rampant that I am increasingly less surprised buy these revelations. People need to start going to jail.

***
President Donald Trump announced deals Friday with five law firms that will allow them to avoid the prospect of punishing executive orders and require them to together provide hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of free legal services for causes his administration says it supports.

The resolutions reflect the Republican president’s continued success in bending prominent law firms to his will as they seek to cut deals with his administration to avoid being targeted by White House sanctions like the ones confronting others in the legal community.

The White House said that the firms of Kirkland & Ellis LLP, Allen Overy Shearman Sterling US LLP, Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP, and Latham & Watkins LLP would each provide $125 million in free legal work for causes including veterans affairs and combatting antisemitism. As part of the agreement, the administration agreed to withdraw letters from the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission demanding information about whether the firms were engaged in discriminatory hiring practices.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/donald-trump-law-firms-executive-order/2025/04/11/id/1206649/

OBSERVATION - Its gonna be a long 4 years for these law firms and hopefully much, much longer.

***
The Supreme Court on April 8 blocked a lower court order that mandated the Trump administration to reinstate thousands of federal employees who were let go in mass firings meant to downsize the federal government.

OBSERVATION - Slowly but surely the trend is swinging towards Trump on the legality of his EO’s on this as well as other items, such as deportations and DOGE efforts.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump had his annual physical and says he’s in great health. The official report is yet to be released.

Illegal Immigration –

Louisiana immigration judge rules that activist Columbia University graduate Mahmoud Khalil, who initiated anti-Israel protests on campus, can be deported, despite ongoing legal efforts by his lawyers. His legal team vows to continue fighting, with a federal case challenging his detention on free speech grounds.

***
President Donald Trump said he is planning to withhold all federal funding from cities and states with sanctuary immigration policies.

City attorneys and state attorneys general are prepared to mount legal challenges to Trump administration attempts to cut off federal funds.

***
President Trump has just authorized the U.S. military to take control of federal land along the southern border.

- 60 feet wide.
- Stretching across California, Arizona & New Mexico.
- Known as the Roosevelt Reservation.

Brings any illegals captured along this portion of the border under military jurisdiction as this declaration essentially makes this a military base/training area.

China -

China has reached out to Europe and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for help to retaliate against the U.S.’ tariffs. With the exception of Spain, those requests have essentially been rebuffed

On Wednesday, Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles announced that China had apparently made some trade overtures to Australia in response to President Trump’s smacking hefty tariffs on Chinese goods. Australia rejected China’s offer to work together to combat the tariffs.

OBSERVATION - China is increasingly finding itself isolated in the tariff tiff with the US. China’s own bullying of these groups is coming back to haunt them.

***
Unconfirmed reports that lots of Chinese factories have stopped production.

In one instance a packaging box factory just stoped production, because of tariffs.

China has a news blackout preventing confirmation, the information was published on a social media site.

OBSERVATION - Media blackout by China is no surprise, but then by their silence, by nature, suggests that things are not going well. Their manufacturing sector has been built up on low priced labor and volume to the rest of the world. The carpet is being pulled out from under them. Watching to see if they try to dump items as below cost to these other nations, which would essentially force them into erecting their own tariffs against China.

MORE THOUGHTS - How deep this economic crisis will hit will certainly impact Chinese preparations for any kind of action against Taiwan. Some analysts have taken a look at China’s strategic reserves of petroleum and compared it to strategic reserves being held by Taiwan. The analysis indicates that China will have the bulk of petroleum imports blockaded and that Taiwan has greater reserves with which to hold out longer than China. Additionally, Taiwan has a greater chance of getting supplies in during the period.

Interesting analysis, but I think it misses one thing that China has historically driven the country to extreme measures of scarcity in order to support its larger goals - in this case trying to get Taiwan to capitulate. That could extend China’s endurance to a degree, but create other problems as well.

Concern is that should this tariff war continue and start deeply impacting China and its economy, China may strike out against the west and Taiwan to divert attention from its internal problems as well as put stress against continued action by the US.

Phillipines –

The country has doubled its frigate production levels.

Russia -

*****
Putin and Witkoff’s talks have ended. The meeting focused on aspects of Ukrainian settlement — Kremlin

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 30-40 degree range with rain / showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 88 Shahed drones of which 56 were shot down, another 24 were lost in location without negative consequences. Presumably downed by electronic warfare.

Russia drones targeted Kyiv, hitting the Sviatoshynskyi district. One warehouse caught fire, covering 1,500 m² — it’s now under control.

Another blaze broke out at an industrial site, affecting two warehouse buildings (1,000 and 150 m²) with partial destruction — firefighting continues. At least two people were injured.

Russian losses per 12/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1240 men
+11 tanks
+7 AFVs
+49 artillery
+2 MLRS

Summary —

Moderately heavy fighting along the front, but no significant terrain gains by either.

Drones continue to plague Ukraine as their air defenses struggle to adapt to the new Russian tactics.

Witkoff’s round of talks continues to spin the wheels as Russia is just playing the game and has no intent to honestly pursue peace talks to their conclusion.

Europe / NATO General –

The U.K.’s HMS Price of Wales is leading a carrier strike group (CSG) composed of British, Canadian and Norwegian ships on an Indo-Pacific deployment. The CSG will conduct multi-carrier ops in the Mediterranean and transit the Red Sea en route to the Pacific.

OBSERVATION - My guess is to operate in the S China Sea area.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel expands control over Gaza

- Eyes on US / Iranian talks today

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Al-Qassam Brigades: We targeted the settlement of Nir Yitzhak with short-range Rajum rockets.
Following the Hamas rocket fire from the southern Gaza Strip on the border community of Nir Yitzhak, the Israeli army issues an evacuation warning for Palestinians in the Khan Younis area

***
Israel takes control of the Morag Corridor and encircles Rafah.

Following the IDF’s capture of the Morag Corridor between southern Gaza’s Rafah and Khan Younis, Defense Minister Israel Katz calls on Palestinians to “remove Hamas and release all the hostages,” before the military expands its operations in the Strip. “This is the final moment to remove Hamas and release the hostages and bring about an end to the war,” Katz says in a statement. “The IDF has now completed the capture of the Morag Corridor that divides Gaza between Rafah and Khan Yunis, and makes the entire area between the Philadelphi Corridor and Morag part of the Israeli security zone,” he says, referring to the IDF’s buffer zone on the Gaza border.

The importance of capturing the Morag Corridor:

1. Cuts off a geographical part from Hamas and helps clear Rafah of terrorists.
2. Shrinks the Gaza Strip.
3. Prevents smuggling from Egypt and eliminates future use of the Rafah crossing.
4. Allows the IDF to more easily search for tunnels.
5. Another card for hostage negotiations.
6. Allows for the next big step in the Gaza Strip, if approved by the political echelon. That is, more active military action.

Israeli security source: The IDF is close to controlling 30% of the Gaza Strip to pressure Hamas, and intends to control 50% if there is no progress in the negotiations.

An IDF spokesman in Arabic informs residents in Khan Yunis neighborhoods to evacuate their homes before an IDF attack following the identification of the source of the firing of 3 rockets earlier today into Israeli territory.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

AFP, citing a Lebanese security source: The army has dismantled most of Hezbollah’s military positions in the southern Litani region, in cooperation with UNIFIL.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Israel intercepted a drone fired by the Houthis overnight, was intercepting it over the area of the Dead Sea.

The US military carried out at least 29 strikes against Houthi targets in the provinces of Sana’a, Hodeidah and Abar last night.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza - with every Hamas rocket or related attack, IDF takes control over the neighborhoods those attacks originated from. Already, Israel has physical control of more of Gaza than before the Phase 1 ceasefire. It is essentially being able to move forward with little to no resistance by Hamas et al.

Lebanon - I don’t believe the claim that they’ve disarmed and removed Hezbollah from the region south of the Litani River. Otherwise economic pressure from the US would not be necessary. IMHO this is propaganda in an effort to keep money flowing into the country.

Syria - Continued stable but friction with Turkey is still a major concern and covered under Turkey below.

Houthis continue to get hammered

US talks with Iran start today, see Iran below.

Iran –
- May 5th - end of negotiation window

Iranian state TV reporting that the delegations will be in separate rooms, with Omani officials relaying messages between them

OBSERVATION - Witkoff is showing signs of weakness and capitulation in some arenas. It seems that Iran is being allowed to drive key parts of the agenda. Focused on countering Trumps demand to eliminate the nuclear weapon production program. Iran is also trying to turn this into a demand for Israel to eliminate its own nuclear weapons.

Iran has demonstrated it will weasel word and squirm through any kind of an ‘agreement’. Hopefully Witkoff will not be drawn into Iran’s deceitful negotiations. He has to hold the line. Iran was only brought to these talks because it is the weakest its been in years and that the US is staging a very large attack force at its borders who, along with Israel, will eliminate the nuclear program.

Iran’s only hope at the moment is to delay such a strike with pseudo offers of peace and disarmament (if they go that far), under which they will likely covertly accelerate the enrichment of uranium to the 90% level and create a bomb.

Turkey –

Erdogan in a message to Israel:

We cannot let the opportunity for change in Syria be wasted—we refuse to turn a blind eye.
Syria has endured enough war. Anyone looking to drag it back into conflict should think twice.
Our patience and commitment to dialogue must not be mistaken for weakness.
Our silence should not give rise to dangerous illusions.

https://x.com/osint613/status/1910682186417594423?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATIONS - Turkey is taking Iran’s place at the power to directly threaten Israel. A lot of talk so far. Turkey has a ton of military equipment, but Israel have a far better honed blade to wield in its defense. This does little to defuse tensions with Israel.

***
Turkish President Erdogan:

Türkiye must take its rightful seat in the European Union without further delay.

OBSERVATION - The EU correctly (for once) is holding Turkey’s ascension to EU membership at bay because of the radical islamic govt of Erdogan.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The agenda to enforce biometrics for air travel is gaining steam as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a specialized agency of the United Nations that coordinates global airline policy, wants to enforce digital surveillance on passengers.

The agency wants to introduce a “digital travel credential” that would enable facial recognition technology to replace your boarding pass.

In other words, flying would require giving up your biometric data.

https://100percentfedup.com/242302-2/

OBSERVATION - Movement to a biometric ID requirement also is a move towards digital ID.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

More general protests across the nation. Low probability of widespread violence, though there may be localized vandalism and violence.

Holy Week begins with Palm Sunday today thru next Sunday (Resurrection Sunday). Elevated concerns for islamic terror across the world.

Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

Stock markets taking a breather before another hectic week hits.

***
Trump has excluded electronics from the latest round of tariffs.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

The World Health Organization (WHO) convened more than 15 countries and 20 regional health agencies to conduct a two-day simulation of a “fictional virus spreading across the world.”

“The two-day simulation, Exercise Polaris, tested WHO’s Global Health Emergency Corps (GHEC), a framework designed to strengthen countries’ emergency workforce, coordinate the deployment of surge teams and experts, and enhance collaboration between countries,” the WHO announced.

Exercise Polaris raises red flags about what global health policies international bodies wish to enact for the next ‘outbreak.’

Event 201 infamously occurred right before COVID-19.

https://100percentfedup.com/242310-2/

OBSERVATION - Event - 201 forever placed a shadow over all these exercises given the parallels between the exercise and how the globe responded.

Must also keep in mind globalists have run an exercise where the internet is shut down due to some sort of virus —affecting just about everything connected to the net. In particular, banking.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump was met with thunderous cheers upon entering UFC 314

Cyber attacks/warfare –HIGH ALERT as of Mar 31, 2025
- Threat status elevated due to potential US / Israeli strike on Iran and Iran using cyber attacks in response.

***

China essentially took credit for the penetrations into US infrastructure controls via the internet.

Illegal Immigration –

Chaos ensued when ICE raided a protest in Denver, CO Saturday.

Russia -

Russia has already drained half of its $106B sovereign wealth fund, used to pay soldier salaries and recruitment bonuses, as monthly casualties reach up to 45,000 troops.

To replace losses, regions are offering record sums, like $40,000 for suicide missions with 5% survival rates.

Analysts warn the Kremlin may be forced to cut nonmilitary spending or burn through dwindling reserves.

Putin’s economic cushion is shrinking fast — and $340B in frozen reserves isn’t helping.

Source: NY Post

***
Inflation is over 10%, recruitment is falling, and even North Korean and Chinese reinforcements aren’t enough to plug the gap.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s modern tactics are delivering 4-to-1 kill ratios, and Putin is stalling Trump’s ceasefire proposal, one Ukraine already agreed to.

Russia is at a 45K loss of personnel per month - and is hard pressed to find recruits to fill the gap.

***
Russia’s main oil grade, Urals, is now at ~$50 a barrel — far below the $69.70 the Kremlin budgeted for 2025.

OBSERVATION - Russia is starting to feel the financial pinch of the war in an ever increasing manner. This is one of the reasons analysts indicate that at the present course, Russia will be unable to largely continue its war efforts at the current pace by 2026.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 30-40 degree range with rain / showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 55 Shahed drones of which 43 were shot down and another 12 were lost in location without negative consequences, presumably downed by electronic warfare means.

Two ballistic missiles hit central Sumy this Palm Sunday morning.
— one reportedly struck a trolleybus. Smoke is rising over the city.

Dozens of Ukrainian civilians have been killed or injured in the attack, with casualties now rising over 100.

Russian losses per 13/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1220 men
+12 tanks
+33 AFVs
+71 artillery
+1 AD system

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Yelyzavetivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Sumy -

At least 21 people killed, 20 more wounded as result of Russian missile strike with 2 ballistic missiles in Sumy

Russian airstrikes continue to be concentrated along the border directly east of Sumy in apparent battlefield preparations.

Summary —

Russian deep strikes clearly reverting to terror on civilians and not military targets. Sumy hit overnight and it may be another precursor to a rumored Russian offensive towards the city in the coming months. Demoralize your target and make them less likely to stand up and fight when the troops come.

Combined with intensive air and artillery strikes to the east, intelligence indicators are lighting up for an attempted Russian offensive in the region.

However, as noted under Russia above, Russia is suffering heavily to sustain the tempo under current levels, let alone gather the reserve forces necessary to launch a major offensive toward Sumy. Rumors are that Russia has accumulated 60K troops for the offensive. However, remember that monthly losses are running in the 45K range. That’s barely enough for one and a half months worth of attacks.

putin may be desperate and denuded enough to demand another offensive in order to gain more leverage at the negotiation table.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel hits Hamas command center

- IDF continues to expand control of Gaza.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Overnight, the Israeli army says it targeted a Hamas command center embedded within the Al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City. The military says the compound was used by Hamas operatives to plan and carry out attacks on Israel and Israeli army troops. No casualties are reported in the strike since the Israeli army issued an early warning

Airstrikes target two UNRWA schools in the Tuffah neighborhood, east of Gaza City

After seizing control of the Morag axis and encircling Rafah, the Israeli army expands its operations in the Daraj and Tufah neighborhoods in Gaza.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The Emirati newspaper “The National” reports, citing Mr. Abdel Aziz Sa’ar, director of the Persian Gulf Research Center, that the internationally recognized Yemeni government (as opposed to the Houthis) is currently recruiting 80,000 soldiers in preparation for a potential large-scale ground operation to seize Hodeidah province from the Houthis. The goal is to encircle the Houthis from all sides as a preparatory step toward capturing the capital.

OBSERVATION - Answers question from a while back regarding houthis preparing for a ground attack

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Turkish Foreign Minister: We call for a ceasefire in Gaza and to prevent Israel from committing mass massacres.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel hit a hospital that was housing a Hamas military operations center. Other reports include hitting two schools, being used as Hamas ops centers. This has been the typical MO for Hamas throughout its existence, subverting civilian facilities protected under international rules of war to hide in. Over the course of this war, it has almost been a given that hospitals and schools have been converted by Hamas for military use.

Lebanon and Syria conditions are static.

Yemen’s proper govt is looking to take advantage to the damage the US (and Israel) have inflicted on the Houthis to mount an effort to finish them off. The description of the desired operation matches that I posted earlier with questions if the US was going to do this. I strongly suspect that we’ll have special ops folks on the ground calling in airstrikes in support of the Yemeni forces if this operation kicks off. I don’t expect it to start for at least a month or more as it will take time to organize, arm and train these force.

Iran - see below.

Iran –
- May 5th - end of negotiation window

Indirect talks between the US and Iran were held over the course of about 3 hours. Each side spoke nicely about the ‘progress’ being made. There was an agreement to meet again next Saturday.

OBSERVATION - Witkoff is an epic failure with these talks (in addition to those with Russia) and they have so far been a nothing burger. Iran is achieving exactly what it wants - delay and diffuse the US military threat on their nuclear program. These talks reportedly didn’t even begin to broach the issue. And for a window that is fast approaching closure, a pretty lackadaisical urgency.

It almost seems that Witkoff is completely unaware of Trump’s policy goals toward Iran are. Trump continues to mass (at substantial cost) a large military force ready to hit Iran. Witkoff better get off his thumbs on this matter. Refusal to directly confront Iran on these issues projects an aura of weakness by the US and will only stimulate Iranian resistance to US demands.

I don’t say it too often, but PM me if interested in being added to the ping list.

Now prepare for another wild week.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

A Colorado gun group delivered a petition Thursday morning to Gov. Jared Polis urging him to veto a controversial gun control bill that the legislature recently passed.
Senate Bill 25-003 was originally an outright ban on the sale or purchase of most semi-automatic rifles or shotguns that take detachable magazines, but was amended to allow for purchases if an individual secures a “firearms safety course eligibility card” from their sheriff department and completes a qualifying firearm education course.
The bill is “a dangerous attack on our Second Amendment freedoms,” the Colorado State Shooting Association said in an email appeal for their petition on Wednesday. “This is a defining moment for Colorado gun owners, and we need you in this fight.”

https://www.aol.com/gun-group-urges-colorado-governor-174500260.html

OBSERVATION - Once again, the country is being divided on essential, constitutional rights, this time by Colorado. This is a key point where constitutional rights no longer transcend state lines. Now individual states control those constitutional rights - state law over constitution. Similar issue with CCW, those constitutionally endowed rights limited on a state by state basis.

Secondly, the marxist left GLOBALLY has used disarmament in the name of ‘safety’ to shore up their tyrannical efforts to keep the people at bay while they engage their plans. Just look today at the terror in England (going as far as instituting a waiting period for some kitchen knives for crying out loud), Canada, Australia, etc. Major communistic massacres resulted in recent history following disarmament of the citizens - Cambodia, China, etc.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Apr 14, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
- Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month, first part of April. UPDATE, maintaining this part of the warning until after Holy Week is ended

Holy Week begins with Palm Sunday today thru next Sunday (Resurrection Sunday). Elevated concerns for islamic terror across the world.

Economy- VERY HIGH Threat - as of April 4, 2025

30Y mortgage rates hit 7.07% Very bad news for the housing market..

OBSERVATION - Housing market is a critical indicator of economic health, and this isn’t helping.

***
Last I checked, Dow futures were up on news of a exemption for exclusion of phones and computers from tariffs. However, how long this exemption may last is unknown as they were declared as being ‘temporary’

***
Financial disturbances caused by the tariff war appear to be stabilizing for the near term. The 90 day pause and the recent high-tech exemption seem to be giving the markets some breathing room to make more adjustments before more actions occur . The most volatile point is US / China tariffs and whether or not Trump will raise them further.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) is now on station off the coast of Oman. Reports are that its aircraft are now engaging Houthi targets.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

The horrors of the mRNA jab continue to be exposed now that restrictions to investigation are removed.

Throughout 2024, embalmers were still seeing white fibrous, rubbery clots in 27% of corpses. An intrepid team continue to investigate what is actually causing them.

At the end of March, one of the team members, Tom Haviland, published an update on what they had discovered. They confirmed the presence of amyloid proteins in the white fibrous clots, and new research has led them to believe these amyloid structures are caused by “phosphorylation” induced by covid injections.

Most worrisome is perhaps that there is a subset of amyloid proteins called “prions” which cause neurovascular or neurodegenerative disorders such as Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (“CKD”), Parkinson’s disease and Alzheimer’s-like dementia. The fibrous clots have tested positive for prion-like seeding activity. This means the covid injections may result in prion diseases developing in younger and younger people. How many people may fall victim to these prions is not known.

https://expose-news.com/2025/04/03/fibrous-rubbery-clots-caused-by-covid-injections/

POLITICAL FRONT –

Prominent Democrats, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, are drawing attention this week for past support of tariff policies similar to those implemented by President Donald Trump as part of his administration’s recent “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs, as reported by The Western Journal.
On Wednesday, Pelosi criticized Trump’s tariff strategy on X, writing: “Donald Trump’s reckless tariffs will cause chaos in our economy, raise prices for consumers and hurt hardworking American families. This is not a strategy — it’s the largest tax hike on the American people in history.”

However, a resurfaced video from 1996, shared by Trump’s rapid response team on X and aired by Fox News, shows Pelosi voicing support for reciprocal trade measures. In the footage, she criticized Chinese tariffs on American goods, echoing Trump’s longstanding concern about the U.S.-China trade imbalance.

In a separate instance from 2018, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer voiced support for Trump’s proposal to impose tariffs on China.

https://thepopulisttimes.com/tariff-hypocrisy-exposed-pelosi-dems-slam-trump-for-policy-they-once-defended/

OBSERVATION - The internet has a loooooooong memory, even if the sheeple don’t.

Illegal Immigration –

SSNs have been stripped from illegals who got them . . . illegally. This may drive many to self deport now that the gravy train (associated Medicare benefits too) are being stripped.

China -

RUMINT - China’s top military officer has been missing for a month.

OBSERVATION - Found this bullet headline floating around the inter webs, still looking for more information. Posted for general awareness should something develop out of it.

***
China reportedly working out ways to prevent the US from getting any strategic materials is choses to ship to other countries who then may turn around and forward to the US.

Russia -

It is estimated that Russia currently produces 330-350 Shahed-136 drones per month. The balance made up from Iran.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 70.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 62 Shahed drones of which 40 were shot down and another 11 didn’t reach their intended target and were lost in location.

Russian losses per 14/04/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff.

+1310 men
+19 tanks
+42 AFVs
+59 artillery
+2 AD systems

Zaporizhzhia Axis -

Ukraine reports of a battalion sized mechanized Russian attack in the sector that was turned back after Russia suffered moderate losses of equipment and personnel.

Summary —

Nothing remarkable. Moderately heavy fighting along the front except where noted.

Relatively moderate drone attack with a relatively high penetration rate. Note Russia production estimates for Shahed production above under Russia, 330-350 Shahed-136 drones per month, come out to 10 - 12 per day. So that even a smaller attack as this one, suggests that Russia relies on Iran for the remaining 50 drones.

Ceasefire talks are still stuck in the mud.

Europe / NATO General –

In general, many European countries are trying to increase production of war materials in part to supply Ukraine and in part to (re)build their stockpiles for a war with Russia that may directly involve them.

Incoming new German prime minister indicates that they may be more willing to allow Ukraine to get their heavy Shadow Cruise missiles, in coordination with England and France. These missiles have the capability to take out the Kerch Straits Bridge into Crimea and have been long desired by Ukraine for that as well as other targets.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- New hostage release proposal submitted by Egypt. Initially rejected by Hamas.

- IDF continues to expand control over Gaza.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Al Akhbar has reported additional details of the Egyptian proposal for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Hamas terror group, which would see around half of the hostages still held in Gaza released.

Under the agreement, enormous quantities of humanitarian aid would be brought into Gaza on a daily basis, on the basis of what was adopted during the previous deal.

The Egyptian proposal also includes an Israeli withdrawal from several positions which the IDF has recently taken control of, as well as increased freedom of movement within Gaza.

According to the report, the Egyptian plan includes a 40-70 day ceasefire, during which eight living hostages are released, including Edan Alexander, and eight hostages’ bodies are released. In exchange, Israel will release around 1,100 living terrorists.

The source also said that the Egyptian proposal under negotiation may lead to the release of 11 living Israeli hostages and 16 bodies of hostages, on condition that Israel agree to a 70-day ceasefire.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/406803

***
Hamas: Israel wants to return the hostages without entering the second phase, and this is unacceptable.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

In southern Gaza, IDF troops dismantled a significant underground tunnel route, stretching 20 meters deep and several hundred meters long, in the ‘Shabura’ area of Rafah. This tunnel was used as a meeting point for Hamas operatives and connected several other tunnel routes in the region.

Additionally, during a separate operation, IDF troops discovered a Hamas weapons cache hidden within a structure that had once served as a school. The cache contained various weapons, including mortars, hand grenades, explosives, and other military supplies.

In northern Gaza, IDF soldiers identified a terrorist ambush several hundred meters away. With coordination from the IAF, the ambush was neutralized, and the terrorists were killed.

IDF troops also located additional weapons caches and several tunnel shafts used by terrorist groups in the Rafah and Morag Corridor areas.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-850068

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Clashes between Palestinians and Israeli forces in Qaryut, south of Nablus, in Samaria.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen take responsibility for yesterdays ballistic missile attack on Israel. One launch was detected and intercepted outside the Israeli’s territory.

***
The U.S. Navy and Air Force carried out over 60+ strikes this weekend against the Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist group in the Al-Bayda, Al-Jawf, Hudaydah, Marib, Saada and Sana’a Governorates of Western Yemen, targeting military and infrastructure sites, including a number of weapons productions facilities Sunday on the outskirts of the capital of Sana’a.

***
Missile depots were destroyed overnight in an attack by US Central Command.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Don’t hold your breath for a hostage deal just yet. Hamas continues to hold to demands under a ‘Phase 2” proposal that would release far fewer hostages (living and dead) over a much longer period of time and total removal of Israel from Gaza. Other Hamas elements may drift to the Egyptian proposal seeing the reality in the fact that Israel is progressively squeezing them into a smaller and smaller box, where a hard attack could eliminate the organization. This also would reflect a split in Hamas and their view of future operations as well.

It is still rather shocking to contemplate that Israel has only discovered and destroyed sometime like 25% of the Hamas tunnel network. This is due largely to biden forcing Israel to hold off entering major cities in Gaza like Rafah and Khan Yunis. Those biden restrictions are now long off the table.

IDF expansion into these areas of Gaza have been relatively unopposed by Hamas. This could be reflected in many ways - hiding out in tunnels hoping for another ceasefire or lack of commitment by recent recruits to the cause.

Lebanon and Syria both relatively stable. This could change in a moment if/when Israel detects more ammo stockpiles it may have missed in past air strikes.

Iran clock keeps ticking down.

Iran –
- May 5th - end of negotiation window

Aboard Air Force One last night, President Trump told reporters he had met with his advisers and that “we’ll be making a decision on Iran very quickly,” according to Reuters.

***
The Iranian chairman of the Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Islami: “We will continue to enrich uranium and gouge out our eyes at the West”

He added that even though the US and “other countries” (i.e. Israel) are trying to intimidate it, Iran has nevertheless crossed all the red lines they set and they have done nothing to it.

***
The day before the talks began, Mohammad-Javad Larijani, Khamenei’s foreign affairs advisor, was interviewed on Iranian television and tried to cool the mood regarding the negotiations.

According to him, the negotiations will last several months, and the Iranian people should not expect a quick solution.

OBSERVATIONS - Other than planning to meet this next Saturday, larger level discussion of the weekend’s nothing burger of talks has been quiet. Elements within the Trump cabinet reiterated that Iran only has a short period of time to come around to a complete elimination of its efforts to produce a bomb. Witkof’s negotiations so far have only appeared to embolden Iran to maintain the status quo and potentially delay an apparent impending US / Israeli air campaign . The goal is to drag out the talks as much as possible.

Trump is indicating that a decision point is coming soon. That better be relayed to Witkoff in large letters. There has to be, he has caused a significant amount of US military assets to be prepositioned against Iran, an effort in its self of large effort and costs. It is fish or cut bait time, and if he fails to follow up on his word to bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran, the US will face serious credibility in the region and with Israel.

REMEMBER - Iran and other moslem nations in the region respond to force and any lack thereof is weakness.
A historic example is the Carter era hostage crisis. Carter was weak, Reagan OTOH was ready to go to war with Iran, and they quickly released them.

Syria -

Turkish Defense Minister: Establishing stability in Syria and preserving its territorial integrity are crucial to the future of our region. We continue to support building Syria’s security and defense capabilities, and our war against terrorist organizations continues.

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