Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
“Hands Off 2025” on Saturday April 5th.

Continuing protests are still primarily anti-Tesla and anti-DOGE in theme.

****
Follow-up on April 5th.

Organizers are announcing protests for 5th of April called ‘Hands Off 2025.’ They claim they are mobilizing millions for peaceful protests. However, it is becoming apparent that there are going to be piggybacking on the Hands Off 2025 protests by the usual culprits to do some emotive theater of their own, groups historically prone to violence.

https://hotair.com/tree-hugging-sister/2025/03/24/gird-yer-loins-progs-schedule-april-5-as-nationwide-day-of-stompy-feet-and-waah-n3801086

OBSERVATION - While the cover operation touts the ‘peaceful’ call, the mix being put into the blender has all the components of an attempt to resurrect the violence of the Floyd riots as well as 2017 riots. Antifa, LGBT / Transtifa and pro-hamas elements are already putting out the word to show up. Unions putting the word out as well.

We’ve already seen the violence being directed towards Tesla, and this violence could well spread to other conservative businesses, organizations and individuals (see recent Swatting and pizza terror threats). Herd mentality then could take over.

Add to this the increasing calls for violence on social media sites like Redditt and it appears the left is getting primed for something more than a march.

Now, projecting to the post from yesterday concerning Anonymous’ warning suggesting a massive break down, they may be projecting that these protests will be met with military force and martial law, combined with acts of sabotage (my projection).

These April 5 protests have the greatest potential for large scale violence we’ve seen in a while.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Mar 18, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
- Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month.

***
The Austin Police Department says it is investigating after suspicious devices were found at a Tesla dealership in North Austin. The devices were determined to be incendiary and were taken into police custody without incident.

https://www.fox7austin.com/news/austin-tesla-dealership-bomb-investigation-suspicious-devices-found

OBSERVATION - This is an escalation in the attacks on Tesla dealerships to a more dangerous level. Antifa elements have been putting out on the inter webs how to construct bombs and this may be one of those designs.

***
Into the final week or Ramadan, a period of increased potential action by islamic terrorists.

***
FYI, for those who do volunteer church security, be very aware of unknown individuals that may approach and ask ‘innocent’ questions about the church / facility, streaming of services, etc. Some out there report seeing this activity and they may well be signs of probing for some sort of an attack. My church security team just came upon these warnings.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

The financial markets have been tanked by the threat of economic damage from President Trump’s tariffs–or that is the narrative, anyway. Democrats are hoping for a full-blown recession, which they are already labeling the “Trump recession.” But perhaps stocks have mostly pulled back a little from high valuations, as happens all the time.

As of today, the Dow is down 3.3% from January 20, when Trump was inaugurated. The S&P is down 4.6%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ, whose companies are least likely to be affected by tariffs, but whose prices were generally considered to be most over-valued a few months ago, is down 7.9%. Not exactly Black Tuesday territory, and the markets are currently rising.

Financial markets are volatile, but what about the underlying economic realities of Trump’s policies? We are seeing lots of news stories like this one: “Hyundai to Invest $21 Billion in U.S. in Bid to Avoid Trump’s Tariffs.” And this one: “Rolls-Royce explores shifting engine-making to US to counter Trump tariffs.” There have been many more such stories in recent days.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/03/a-trump-recession.php

RELATED -
Since Trump took office, a staggering $2.924 trillion in investment has flowed into the United States:

- UAE $1.4 trillion
- Saudi Arabia $600 billion
- Hyundai $20 billion
- Apple $500 billion
- Nvidia over $100 billion
- SoftBank, Oracle, OpenAI $100 billion
- TSMC $100 billion
- Johnson & Johnson $55 billion
- CMA CGM Group $20 billion
- Eli Lilly $27 billion
- Merck $1 billion
- GE Aerospace $1 billion

OBSERVATION - I’m not a financial guru, but seems to me that the recent Dow sell off has components of profit taking tied into the loss of govt money flooding the system that has kept the market artificially high. This has lead to some commentary suggesting some rough spots as the markets switch from govt based spending back to private sector. The amount of investment Trump has brought in - much on the back of tariff threats - is a key element of that switch.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Observers noted that three B-2 Spirit stealth bombers were being deployed to Diego Garcia. This likely signals a Bomber Task Force deployment.

Some indicate the last B-2 deployment to Diego Garcia took place in 2020

This was associated with a noticeable increase in tanker deployments across the Pacific. Reports are that one of the bombers had to make an emergency landing in Hawaii.

No confirmation from the DoD yet.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The Trump DOJ said it is exercising the State Secrets Privilege and informed Judge James Boasberg it will no longer provide him with any information related to deportation flights.

On Monday evening, the DOJ had enough of Judge Boasberg’s intrusive orders and invoked the State Secrets Privilege.

“The Executive Branch hereby notifies the Court that no further information will be provided in response to the Court’s March 18, 2025 Minute Order based on the state secrets privilege and the concurrently filed declarations of the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Homeland Security,” the DOJ wrote.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/03/breaking-trump-doj-invokes-state-secrets-privilege-tells/

RELATED -
Just the News reported Sunday night that, months before he (Judge James Boasberg) blocked President Donald Trump’s deportations of illegal alien gang members, Boasberg attended a privately-funded legal conference in Idaho that featured sponsors and speakers who have expressed clear anti-Trump sentiments — particularly on immigration and January 6th — and a theme that echoed the Democrat Party’s 2024 stated mission of “saving democracy.” Federal judicial ethics rules currently allow such junkets.

Harvard Law Professor Emeritus Alan Dershowitz also said on the John Solomon Reports podcast on Monday that Boasberg’s attendance at the Rodel Institute conference was “a creation of, obviously, a conflict of interest, at least in appearance” and that “when you have cases like this, you have to be absolutely above reproach.”

https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/problem-boasberg-attending-anti-trump-orgs-event-spurs-calls-ban-judicial

***
House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune on Monday shrugged off calls by President Donald Trump and other lawmakers to impeach federal judges, reports Politico.

“Look, everything is on the table: Impeachment is an extraordinary measure. We’re looking at all the alternatives that we have to address this problem,” Johnson told reporters.

Added Thune: “there’s an appeals process, and, you know, I suspect that’s ultimately how this will get handled.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/mike-johnson-john-thune-judges/2025/03/24/id/1204144/

***
A reported Signal discussion between Trump national security / military team members regarding bombing campaign against the Houthi’s has blown up because a nut job from the “Atlantic” was “inadvertently “ added to the chat.

Mike Watlz, the Trump administration’s national security adviser, accidentally added Atlantic journalist and editor Jeffrey Goldberg to a Signal chat where the strike was being discussed.

I have just a few observations. One is my experience using Signal - contacts need to be in your contact book and second, those contacts have to be verified between users. Finally, it is a deliberate act to bring someone into the chat - not a thing that happens by “accident”.

WTH is Waltz doing with Goldberg in his contact book. Probably the most anti-trump individual out there. My hope it was a deliberate plant for psyops/propaganda purposes. Worse, it is a bogus discussion and story (though the WH apparent has confirmed it). Even worse is that Waltz is a plant and this was an effort to sabotage Trump’s policy towards the Houthis.

Finally, there are secure comms systems set up for this kind of discussion. Signal isn’t qualified to conduct such discussions, and used is borderline illegal.

This is not the kind of nonsense we need at this stage of Trump’s term.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Rainy conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 60s range.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reports a Shahed drone overnight. Out of 139 launched, 78 were shot down and another 34 were lost in location or suppressed by electronic warfare.
Poltava region and Dnipro city bore the brunt of drones that got past the ADA.

Russian losses per 25/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1180 men
+5 tanks
+18 AFVs
+61 artillery
+3 MLRS

Popovka, Belgorod region, has come under the control of Ukrainian forces, according to Russian milblogger Romanov.

Summary —

Ukraine air defenses continue to appear to be struggling with Shahed attacks of late, with considerably higher numbers getting through than in recent months.

Battles on the front lines are relatively static with a few exceptions. Ukraine continues to operate shallowly in Russian territory (Belgorod region) and pushing back Russians in the Pokrovsk area.

Word on peace talks primarily between US and Russia held in Saudi Arabia have yet to come forth. Initial indicators suggest that not much progress is being made because Russia refuses to make any compromises.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- More airstrikes on the Syrian Palmyra military airport and the nearby T-4 airbase

- Operations in Gaza continue to grow

- US airstrikes continue against the Houthis.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Hamas terrorists used white Toyota pickup trucks and vans in the murderous massacre on October 7, to infiltrate Israeli territory, murder, and abduct Israeli civilians. These pickup trucks were used for terrorist purposes and for transferring weapons. They were also very noticeably displayed at the ‘ceremonies’ Hamas conducted when releasing hostages.
So far, the IDF has struck 100 of these pickup trucks.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

In Lebanon, it is reported that a Hezbollah commander named Hassan Kamal Halawi, also known as Abu Ali, was killed in an operation in the Nabatieh province. According to Lebanese sources, Hassan Halawi served as the commander of the terrorist organization’s anti-tank unit.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Overnight, the IDF says it targeted the “remaining military capabilities” at Syria’s Palmyra military airport and the nearby T-4 airbase, just days after striking both locations.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

The IDF’s ongoing operations in the northern West Bank remain unchanged for now, but forces are increasing their readiness in the sector due to the heightened volatility of the final stretch of Ramadan.

For nearly two months, the refugee camps in Jenin and Nur al-Shams in Tulkarm have been deserted. The IDF has barred thousands of Palestinian residents, including hundreds of terrorists who fled, from returning to their homes.

“Holding these terror strongholds for such an extended period has made it significantly harder for the enemy to regroup and rebuild their armed cells — the so-called ‘katibat’ — that once operated in the refugee camps and have now been dismantled,” an IDF source said.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/skdweijpjg#autoplay

***
Israel has begun re-arresting some of the terrorists from Judea and Samaria who were released in the previous hostage release / terrorism blackmail deals. The reason for arresting them is that they immediately went back to terrorism.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Arab channels are writing of UNCONFIRMED reports from many Yemeni opposition groups about the death of Abdul-Malik Badr al-Din al-Houthi, the leader of the Houthi terrorist movement in Yemen.

U.S. fighter jets carried out at least eight airstrikes in Yemen’s Saada and Sanaa provinces over the past 24 hours. Targets included areas near Saada city and a residential building in Sanaa’s Moeen district.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The hype over Hamas’ acceptance of an Egyptian ceasefire / hostage proposal has quickly faded. It was a non-starter anyway, since it gave Hamas almost everything and Israel virtually nothing.

Expanded ground operations in Gaza are imminent, as at least two more divisions are ready to enter the territory. Israel continues its aggressive air campaign, striking Hamas positions no matter where they are hidden. The white Toyota campaign is a new twist - another big OPSEC loss by Hamas who as part of their pride, paraded them around in association with the hostage releases.

Things are relatively calm against Hezbollah, with the occasional drone strike on identified leaders and locations.

Syria sees more airstrikes on possible bases that Turkey was looking at taking over. Concerns are still high that Turkey and Israel may have some sort of combat in the near future.

Iran –

Intelligence indicators of impending action against Iran. 2 of 3 B2 bombers (one failed to make it there) were apparently deployed to Diego Garcia from where they can support both the operation against the Houthis as well as any future strikes against Iran. We have confirmed at least two aircraft carriers (Truman and the Vinson) to be in the region within two months and a potential for at least one or two more (Ford, Bush or Nimitz). The table is being set for a strike against Iran’s nuclear program.

Watching for additional USAF fighter/bombers to deploy to the region and even an additional amphibious taskforce (possibly Iwo Jima lead)

Clock is clearly counting down.

Turkey –

Hundreds of thousands continue to protest throughout Turkey.

Turkish police continue to escalate the use of force in an attempt to break out and deter the massive protests that have been going on for several days now.

Misc of Note –

Also tracking under Terrorism

Had a bank robbery here in my Redoubt home that might not garnered much attention on my part - except for who the robber appeared to be. A 20ish white male with a distinctive neck beard and scraggly mustache. Locals joked that he was an amish gangster. Very much uncommon for the region.

Those who’ve followed new - particularly middle eastern news - would immediately recognize not only the beard but other facial features of that being a moslem of middle eastern descent.

Still monitoring the news to see if they give a name yet, but this as I said has caught my eye and am delving deeper into the moslem numbers in the community. Most of which are associated with the local college.

This individual was not the brightest bulb in the box, but it is an indicator that even here in the Redoubt there are growing concerns (on my part at least) of moslems that don’t have the state’s interest in mind.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
“Hands Off 2025” on Saturday April 5th.

Continuing protests are still primarily anti-Tesla and anti-DOGE in theme.

****
Leftists are using Public Square @officialpsq to identify local conservative businesses to boycott.
This boycott list quickly becomes a target list when political and social conditions deteriorate.

https://x.com/grayzoneintel/status/1904657183872086197?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

OBSERVATION - Leftist themselves announcing this identification effort. Similar was used during the Floyd riots to zero in on Trump supporting businesses, in addition to the random looting and vandalism of neighborhoods.

***
See development of a boycott list above in CW2.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

A military NOTAM issued for Diego Garcia confirms that two key ramp slots — B1 and B2 — are closed until May 1st, suggesting a sustained U.S. air deployment on the U.K.-controlled island.

Trackers have noted 7 total B-2 Spirits, -1 that diverted to PHNL yesterday, that have departed Whiteman AFB, MO for Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean since yesterday. This would bring the total number of deployed B-2s to six or seven, marking an unprecedented concentration of stealth bombers at this location.

This timeline overlaps with the end of Trump’s 2-month ultimatum to Iran, raising further questions about the true purpose behind the sudden U.S. bomber buildup in the Indian Ocean.

POLITICAL FRONT –

On Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt posted a fact-check of an article by Editor-in-Chief Jeffrey Goldberg published Monday in The Atlantic claiming that he was accidentally texted “war plans” by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth via the Signal messaging app.
“Jeffrey Goldberg is well-known for his sensationalist spin,” Leavitt begins a X.com social media post.

“Here are the facts about his latest story,” Press Sec. Levitt explains:

“1. No “war plans” were discussed.

“2. No classified material was sent to the thread.

“3. The White House Counsel’s Office has provided guidance on a number of different platforms for President Trump’s top officials to communicate as safely and efficiently as possible.”

Goldberg claims in his article that he received “war plans,” most notably in the story’s headline:
“The Trump Administration Accidentally Texted Me Its War Plans”

“The Signal app is not approved by the government for sharing classified information,” Goldberg writes in one of several references to the mishandling of “classified” documents and information.

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/atlantics-war-plans-signal-app-story-fact-checked-wh-press-sec-leavitt

OBSERVATION - The Signal App was approved by the biden regime, contrary to Goldberg’s claims. Also, when pressed in an interview, Goldberg ran away from producing proof that classified material was transmitted in the chat.

RELATED - . . the big question that remains is how Goldberg ended up in the chat on Signal in the first place.
According to President Trump, they know that it was a staffer for National Security Advisor Mike Waltz who added Goldberg.

Why would one of Waltz’s staffers have Goldberg in their contacts? Given Goldberg’s long history of pushing false narratives to undermine Trump, I’m finding it hard to believe that Goldberg would be on anyone’s list of journalists to leak information to.

Does the Trump administration know specifically which staffer it was, and does it know if the inclusion of Goldberg in the chat was an “accident” or deliberate? Maybe I’m being paranoid, but this feels like a setup. Hopefully, we’ll get to the bottom of this soon.

https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2025/03/25/has-the-staffer-who-put-jeffrey-goldberg-on-the-signal-chat-been-exposed-n4938269?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0I7Iy4vfkdd3Ck4RYNfB0NqJ7BiYKHoQP9ULyvo5dnMgT5pp11aDI1zlw_aem_Ue0_j8gmYsZngSMjL0cDZQ

FINAL OBSERVATION - I lean towards the views of PJM on this point. This was not an accident, but a set up. One of the most vehement opponents of Trump some how gets access to the chat. Trump 45 had massive moles throughout undermining his administration. Seems another sweep of staffers is necessary to root out the rest.

Russia -

*****
(ISW). The Kremlin stated that it will not implement the agreed ceasefire in the Black Sea until the United States lifts sanctions on Russian state-owned agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank and other unspecified financial organizations involved in international food and fertilizer trade.

The Kremlin’s official statements are vague, stipulate requirements for the ceasefire that neither the United States nor Ukrainian official statements mention, and leave room for disagreement among the parties that would be involved in interpreting the agreements, lifting sanctions, and monitoring potential violations.

Putin continues to reject Trump’s and Zelensky’s proposed temporary frontline ceasefire, despite agreeing to some form of ceasefire for strikes on energy infrastructure and in the Black Sea. Putin’s persistent stalling and intransigence are inhibiting Trump’s efforts to secure a lasting and stable peace settlement.

OBSERVATION - Russia is playing games over implementation and inclusion of Ukraine demands in these ‘negotiations’. At this stage, too much captivation on the part of Trump will result in another Chamberlin debacle that eventually resulted in WW2 IMHO.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Rainy conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 60s range.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 117 Shahed drones of which 56 were shot down and another 48 were either suppressed or didn’t reach target intended targets.

Kryvyi Rih, and Dnipro city suffered hits from the drones that got thru.

Russian losses per 26/03/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff.

+1280 men
+5 tanks
+15 AFVs
+17 artillery

Summary —

Moderate fighting with Ukraine ADA continuing to struggle with defenses against Shahed drones. Front lines pretty much static once again, no significant changes to note. The big picture is the development of the ceasefire/peace talks and the apparent non-progress.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Anti-hamas protests in Gaza

- HTS / Druze fighting in S Syria (under Syria)

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Defense Minister Israel Katz has approved the Gaza Division’s new battle plans and warned that if Hamas continues to reject hostage deals, it will face escalating consequences—more territory lost, more operatives eliminated, and total destruction of its infrastructure.

***
Israeli army: To all residents of the neighborhoods of Al-Zeitoun Al-Gharbi, Tal Al-Hawa, Sheikh Ajlin, Tasbeet Al-Nafoud and Al-Rimal Al-Janoubi, this is a preliminary and final warning before the raids. The organizations are returning and launching their rockets from within civilians. We have warned this area many times.

***
Yesterday, hundreds of Palestinian Arabs took to the streets in northern Gaza on Tuesday, voicing strong opposition to the Hamas terror group and calling for an end to the ongoing war with Israel, reported The Guardian.
The demonstration was reportedly the largest of its kind in the Strip since Hamas’ brutal October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-64/

The Mokhtars (leaders) of the Shejaiya neighborhood in northern Gaza have released a statement calling on Hamas to end its rule over the Gaza Strip and to stop the suffering of the people. They also called for a protest tomorrow at noon.

Reports that more protests are on tap in both northern and southern Gaza.

Unconfirmed reports that Hamxs is planning to attack the demonstrations and will likely use excessive force. “The demonstrators need protection from Hamxs,” the source said.

***
Palestinian Report: One of the founders of Hamas, Jaber Amar “Abu Ali,” has been eliminated in an IDF strike in Gaza.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syrian Foreign Ministry: We call on the international community to continue pressuring Israel to compel it to comply with the 1974 Disengagement Agreement.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi-affiliated media: 19 USAF strikes were carried out targeting Houthi sites in Saada and Amran governorates in Yemen last night.

A ballistic missile was fired by the Houthis but failed in mid flight.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza has peace protests during the initial fighting, but was very small and largely ignored by the press. This time around we see several hundred (out of a population of some 2 million plus) protesting for ‘peace’.

Are these protests genuine, or are they staged by Hamas to demonstrate that Gazans must stay and elect new leaders—all in an effort to stop the war and prevent their displacement? Would Hamas be beyond astroturfing them to gain leverage to stop the Israeli onslaught? I think Hamas is capable of this. The vast majority of Gazans voted for and support Hamas. “Citizens” participated in the Oct 7 atrocities as well as abusing / killing hostages brought back into Gaza on that day. Hamas is Gaza and Gaza is Hamas. The size of these protests are very small and unlikely to sway Hamas’ war ambitions.

Things could be reaching a boil between HTS and Druze in S Syria, which could draw Israeli air strikes into play to support the Druze (See Syria below). Israel has pledged to help defend the druze from the core terrorist groups of HTS.

Finally, the large build up of B2s at Diego Garcia send messages to both the Houthis as well as Iran. I expect the B2 to use Houthi targets as a warm up to striking Iran later in May. A single B2 can almost carry more bombs than the carrier jets can, and with heavy penetrator bombs really make a mess of any underground storage or command facilities.

Thoughts on B2 and Iran below.

Iran –

Attempting to synchronize the time line of Trump’s warning. Based on when his letter to Iran was forwarded, “two-month deadline” reportedly mentioned in the letter would end on May 5th.
The NOTAM for Diego Garcia is thru May 1st and could be extended.
Vincent CSG is expected in CENTCOM AOR some time in April.
A third CSG can be on station before May 1.

***
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) unveiled yet another underground missile base and storage site today for its Aerospace Force, claimed to contain thousands of short to long-range ballistic missiles, as well as anti-ship cruise missiles likely to be used for the targeting of ships in the Persian Gulf.

OBSERVATIONS - At least 6 B2s at Diego Garcia pose a serious threat to Iran, especially if used in a combined air campaign with Israel an other US naval and USAF assets in the region. As noted above, the Houthis are likely to bear the brunt of their firepower first. The early deployment of these assets supports the thoughts that the Houthis will bear the brunt of their force first.

The timing roughed out above shows a lot of US firepower in the region at the end of the Trump 2 month time window. The NOTAM at Diego Garcia can easily be extended and cutting it off as at present only throws off Iranian planning.

Still watching for more deployments of USAF assets to the region.

Also still monitoring which of several air craft carriers currently out to sea may be moved to CENTCOM in addition to the Truman and the Vincent. These being the Ford, the Bush and the Nimitz. Ford and Bush are in the Atlantic, the Nimitz is off the west coast. I’m leaning towards the Nimitz, as it is on its last deployment and the military has a tendency to let retiring units have their last hurrah. Nimitz can also get there faster. Ford is still very green and has bugs to work out. Also, the Iwo Jima is at sea in the Atlantic area - its assets may be needed to help secure the Straits of Hormuz in the event of a conflict.

Iran is probably inadvertently giving up a lot of data with their latest show off of an underground facility. US intelligence probably has a pretty good fix on its location and it wouldn’t take much to put it out of action, let alone destroy it.

On the brute force end of things - Iran can expect to be hammered. Concern for the US is an asymmetrical terror attack by cells smuggled in during the biden administration and likely armed to some extent by Mexican cartels (for a good price).

Syria -

Heavy clashes are ongoing between Julani’s militants and Druze groups after militants from HTS and tribes from Deir ez-Zor stormed Ashrafiyat Sahnaya in the Damascus countryside.

OBSERVATION - This may trigger an Israeli response.

Turkey –

Erdogan tonight: “We will not allow terrorists and terrorists to take over the streets, and we will know how to defeat them.”

Hundreds of thousands continue to protest throughout Turkey.

Turkish police continue to escalate the use of force in an attempt to break up and deter the massive protests that have been going on for several days now.

OBSERVATION - Protestors are now facing a choice of meeting violence with violence, an act that could bring the military in on Erdogan’s side, or riding out the brutal police attack by their sheer numbers. It does not appear that after violent police responses the past two days that the protests have lost any steam.

Misc of Note –

Followup on yesterday’s robbery here in my Redoubt home. Individual had a very american name. That doesn’t rule out a conversion to islam. Still monitoring the news for more details.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
- “Hands Off 2025” on Saturday April 5th.

A large march promoting immigration reform that could see more than 10,000 people march from Dallas City Hall is set to take place on Sunday.

Organized by several pro-immigration groups, including the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), the rally may be the largest group to protest the current immigration enforcement posture by the Trump administration since the inauguration.

OBSERVATION - Currently, indicators suggest this will likely remain peaceful, but as with all these leftist based protests, the potential for vandalism and some violence is always possible.

***
With the weekend fast approaching, leftist group “Indivisible” is announcing a wide variety of protests across the nation.

***
The DC Circuit Court of Appeals on Wednesday temporarily blocked Judge Tanya Chutkan’s order doxxing DOGE workers.

Earlier this month Judge Chutkan demanded Elon Musk and DOGE turn over sensitive documents and data within 21 days—all to appease a coalition of Democrat state attorneys general.
This is not a final ruling on the case.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/03/breaking-dc-circuit-court-appeals-blocks-judge-chutkans/

OBSERVATION - The left is increasingly seeking to put together a list of ‘targets’ for follow-on legal attacks and for use by their brownshirts for potential acts of violence. this is one of those efforts. This kind of Doxxing should not be allowed, especially in the current environment where there are a flood of death threats towards Musk and DOGE employees.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Commercial satellite imagery confirms the deployment of B-2s to Diego Garcia, with several visible on the flightline and four others likely housed in environmentally controlled shelters.

Notably, there is also a surge of KC-135 Stratotankers deployed alongside the bombers—a development not seen during the 2020 BTF mission. Additionally, a marked increase in C-17 aircraft at Diego Garcia suggests an influx of munitions to support the deployment.

Air tankers have also been noted being deployed to Hawaii and Guam, further indicators of support being set up for a large operation.

The bombers present a unique mix of capabilities, particularly their ability to penetrate past dense enemy air defenses to carry out ‘bunker buster’ strikes employing 30,000-pound class GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs. MOP, which only the B-2 is currently certified to employ operationally

***
Unconfirmed. 4 B52 bombers completed a quick takeoff exercise in the last 48 hours.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The Waltz aide that allegedly added Goldberg to the Signal chat group has been identified. It is Alex Wong, the Chinese Deputy National Security Advisor appointed by President Trump, and is married to U.S. Attorney Candice Chiu Wong, a Chinese Woman who was one of the key attorneys involved in PROSECUTING J6ers.

Making matters worse, Alex Wong worked for Covington & Burling Covington LLP, which is one of the law firms that President recently stripped of its security clearance and terminated all of their government contracts via Executive Order on February 25th, 2025. Trump accused @CovingtonLLP of being involved in the weaponization of government.

https://x.com/lauraloomer/status/1904904102917570900?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Wong should be in handcuffs already IMHO. And those who ‘vetted’ him for the position exiled to Gitmo. His associations with China and forces devoted to destroying Trump (via his wife) should have raised huge red flags. This background information make this incident increasingly one of deliberate sabotage and espionage.

This is not to totally excuse the participants, show should have had their discussions on established classified systems.

TRUMP Watch –

The percent of Americans who say that the country is moving in the right direction has surged since Inauguration Day, from 28 percent on Jan.20 to just above 43 percent. This according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) poll of polls. It’s still underwater, but it’s been underwater for as far back as RCP shows data, some 16 years.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 37% who Strongly Approve of the job Trump is doing and 40% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -3.

Meanwhile, the New York Post reports that the Democratic party is at an all-time record level unfavorable rating of 57 percent.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/03/the-right-direction.php

OBSERVATION - I believe these results are pre-Signal SNAFU, but I don’t think that will make a significant impact in the next round of polling, especially if Trump can get a head again on the news cycle with his agenda.

North/South Korea –

In an event earlier this week at Pyongyang International Airport, attended by Supreme-Leader Kim Jong Un, North Korea unveil its first ever airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, which appears to be based off the Russian A-50 “Mainstay” and Chinese KJ-2000 “Mainring” both of which utilize a modified version of Russia’s Ilyushin Il-76, the same as the North Korean AEW&C

Though it is based off an aircraft utilized by both Russia and China, it is not known how much help the two countries played in the development and construction of the North Korean AEW&C.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1905129740639285525?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

North Korea also unveiled a reconnaissance and multirole UAV, similar in appearance to an RQ-4 and MQ-9, that employ a reverse-engineered copy of a Hellfire missile,.

OBSERVATION - The AWAC likely had a lot of help from Russia, in exchange for NK support of the Ukraine war. Reverse engineering is a short cut to gain reasonable systems, like the MQ-9 clone.

***
Reports of 3000 more NK troops to Russia - see below.

Phillipines –

Philippines’ state media claims the government expects the U.S. Army to deploy a second Typhon missile system to the Philippines. The U.S. Army announced a Pacific Deployment for a second Typhon system earlier this month. The Typhoon missiles give Philippines the ability to strike the Chinese mainland.

Russia -

Russia / putin continue to play games on start time and nature of ceasefires over the Ukraine war.

Russian Personnel Issues –-

North Korea has reportedly sent 3,000 more troops to support Russia in its war against Ukraine, bringing the total number of NK forces involved to 15,000. 4,000 have been killed or injured, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Rainy conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 60s range.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 86 Shahed drones and an Iskander-M ballistic missiles. In total, 42 drones were shot down and another 26 were suppressed by electronic warfare or were lost in location without causing damage. Unfortunately there is damage to civilian infrastructure in Dnipro, Kharkiv and other places.

Dnipro in particular was hit hard with explosions rocking the city as drones targeted residential areas from multiple directions. The city is on fire.

Russian losses per 27/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1670 men
+8 tanks
+16 AFVs
+58 artillery
+2 MLRS
+1 AD system

Summary —

Ukraine ADA continues to struggle against the continued onslaught of Shahed drone attacks, and Dnipro suffered heavily from the penetrating drones overnight.

Heavy fighting along the front, but there were no significant changes in territory occupied. Indicators the Ukraine continues to be successful in pushing Russian forces away from Pokrovsk, however, Russians have shifted their attacks to the area further to the southwest of the city.

On the strategic level, games putin is playing is not bringing any kind of a ceasefire any closer to reality.

Europe / NATO General –

The EU is ready to order all of its citizens to prepare survival kits with 72-hours worth of supplies in the face of a looming WW3 threat. And it comes as Nato chief Mark Rutte warned Russia it faces a “devastating” revenge strike if they attack any part of Europe.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Continued success hitting Hamas and Hezbollah leaders

- More airstrikes against former Assad military bases.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Israeli army: To all residents of the Gaza Strip located in the following neighborhoods: Western and Eastern Zeitoun, Tel al-Hawa, the Old City, Sheikh Ajlin, Sheikh, Expansion of Influence, and Southern Rimal: This is a preliminary and final warning before an attack. The organizations are once again launching their rockets from within civilian areas. We have warned this area many times. For your safety, you must move immediately to the southern Gaza Valley to the known shelters.

***
The Spokesman for Hamas’ Political Wing in the Gaza Strip, Abdul Latif al-Qanouis is reported to have been killed last night in an Israeli precision-airstrike on Jabalia in North Gaza. Israel has yet to comment on the strike or the elimination of Qanouis.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Overnight, the IAF struck and eliminated the terrorist Ahmad Adnan Bajjiga, a battalion commander in Hezbollah’s Radwan Force, in the area of Derdghaiya in southern Lebanon.

IDF: “We attacked a number of Hezbollah terrorists who were identified as transporting weapons in the Yochmor area in southern Lebanon”

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

According to Arab reports, during the night, Israel attacked targets in the Latakia port area, as well as the 110th Marine Brigade base in Ras Shamra in northwestern Syria.

These are Assad’s regime military bases that Israel makes sure won’t fall on the hands of turkey or the new Jihadi Syrian regime.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Israeli media: Two missiles fired from Yemen were intercepted

Yemen reports at least 15 US military strikes in the capital Sanaa area

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Pro-Qatari Al-Jadeed newspaper reports: All Egyptian proposals for a Gaza ceasefire have failed.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza is closer to being on the receiving end of a much larger Israeli ground assault. IAF airstrikes are softening up Gaza for the eventual entry of a large Israeli ground attack.

Anti-Hamas protests appear to have petered out after two days.

Lebanon / Hezbollah continues to be much of the same - Israel identifying and eliminating Hezbollah teams in the process of setting up firing positions or resupply. Israel is not facing any significant threats from Hezbollah in the near future.

Syrian bases that were key to Assad’s military are being further destroyed by IAF strikes. As noted above, the goal now is to deny use to as much as possible to Turkish or new Syrian forces. This denial due in part to the extensive repairs that would be needed to replace destroyed building, bunker (munitions) and airfield damage. Apart from Syrian HTS militias attacking Druze villages in S Syria, there are no significant Syrian threats to Israel in the near future.

Houthis will likely see big B2 raids in the near future.

See Iran below - big hands on the clock getting REALLY close to 12.

Iran –

For the first time, the United States estimates that Iran has significantly shortened its path to a nuclear bomb, with a breakthrough time of less than a week – following a dramatic increase in its stockpile of enriched uranium.

The previous estimate was one or two weeks, but now the US intelligence report and the commander of the US Strategic Command warn that the situation has become more serious.

OBSERVATION - This estimate may be the reason Trump is so aggressively seeking first diplomatic efforts with a big military response for plan B. The “breakthrough” time here appears to be related to how quickly Iran can purify uranium to the 90% level in quantities necessary for a bomb, not the actual creation of a bomb itself. The assessment is that Iran has quite a lot of 60% purified stockpiles and that processing would not be a hold up to going to 90%.

Along with that is the potential that Iran may have a functional firing mechanism to cause the nuclear explosion - needing only the purified uranium. Actual tests can be carried out with reasonable secrecy and modern computer simulations making design and refinements much quicker. This is a large unknown.

This leaves the final question of how deliverable the Iranian nuclear warhead is. As I’ve noted before, large Hiroshima scale bombs would be accessible to an undeterred Iran. Getting one small enough to fit on a ballistic missile is another. This makes hitting the concentration efforts critical so that they don’t get a chance to make a functional bomb of any size.

***
US / Israeli attack assessment.

The US has set up the air train (refueling) necessary to support airlift of bombs to Diego Garcia, and may already be in the process of enlarging the existing stockpile. While many analysts openly state these bombers are for the Houthi, more realistic expectations are that they are there for the eventual attack on Iran. If Houthi only, B52s at this stage would be more practical as Houthi ADA assets are scarce and the 52s could easily penetrate the airspace if dropping munitions versus ALCMs. However, Houthi attacks would be good ‘training’ missions for an eventual Iranian attack.

The big calling card is the B2’s capability to carry the 30,000-pound class GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs. Only the B-2 is currently certified to employ operationally. It is questionable as to how many Houthi facilities would need such a boomer - but Iran is a target rich environment for such a munition. Secondly, the airspace over Iran is more of a challenge that Yemen, with limited ADA batteries scraped together from the last Israeli attack that wiped out most of the Iranian defense capability. The stealth nature would also enhance the surprise aspect of attacks with these bombers.

I do not expect the B2s to carry the burden alone. B52s have been active the past few months flying show of force missions in the ME and if the reports are true, quick response drills suggest that CONUS based B52s could be airborne to enhance air power over Iran. If B52 are deployed to Garcia or other Middle Eastern bases, even Europe / Britain, the noose will be tightening very quickly for Iran.

Watching for more extensive movements of USAF F22, F35, F15 and F16 - with supporting aircraft - into Persian Gulf bases. I would expect these to come in much closer to the kickoff date.

Finally, the watching game to see which other aircraft carrier CSG will be the third into the region. I still suspect the Nimitz. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ford or Bush is sent as well, to eventually replace the Truman.

Turkey –

Protests continue across Turkey in the face of growing violent responses by police / security forces. Whether they can continue to grow in spite of the police violence is yet to be seen.

Holy cow, March has screamed by us already.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
- “Hands Off 2025” on Saturday April 5th.

***
With the weekend here, there continue to be a plethora of protests out there across the country on a wide range of grievances. Tesla/DOGE/Musk are among the largest along with pro-illegals, and anti-anything Trump. Current views suggest that these events will be loud an annoying, but there is little threat for major violence and vandalism. As with all these events, localized vandalism and violence is still a possibility . Keep situationally aware, and avoid protest areas.

***
Democrats are once again giving the silent treatment to violence and vandalism against Tesla cars and dealerships. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., refused to condemn the violence against Tesla when confronted on Capitol Hill.

Jeffries refused to acknowledge the question when asked to denounce the violence as his staff ushered him inside the Capitol, earning a disapproving shake of the head from one staffer. Pelosi brushed off a question about her take on the situation with a polite wave, telling Fox News Digital she was running late. Yet, both Democratic leaders have been steadfast in their rejection of “domestic terrorism” — until now.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/loudest-silence-top-democrats-remain-mum-violence-against-tesla

OBSERVATION - Violence is the mainstay fall back position of the left - seen historically time and again. Silence is support for these acts - just like their silence in the face of cities being burned down during the Floyd riots.

***
Las Vegas police have arrested 36-year-old Paul Kim on arson charges and possession of an explosive device for the “targeted attack” of a Tesla collision center.

The accused terrorist is believed to have pulled out a gun and shot the cars along with igniting Molotov cocktails.

“He used what appeared to be multiple Molotov cocktails and firearms to conduct his attack,” said LVMPD Asst. Sheriff Dori Koren.
5 vehicles were damaged in the incident.

Kim was booked on 15 counts.

https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1905287417097261421?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Authorities said Kim’s social media activity showed potential links to communist groups and Palestinian causes. He had “self-proclaimed ties” to Communist Party USA, Revolutionary Communist International, Hidden Palestine, Palestine Action, and other anti-American groups.

https://americafirstreport.com/las-vegas-tesla-dealership-terrorist-had-ties-to-communist-groups/

RELATED - Many others have been identified and arrested for keying and otherwise damaging privately owned Teslas. Loaded with cameras operating in ‘secured’ mode, their vandalism has been clearly recorded and individuals identified. In one instances posted on social media, a 55 yr old female multimillionaire was identified keying the Tesla of a fellow democrat - they are willing to eat their own folks.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned that the U.S. government could breach the debt ceiling by August if Congress does not raise the debt limit. The CBO added that the debt ceiling could be breached as soon as late May if government borrowing is higher than the CBO projects, before additional tax revenues are expected in June.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The U.S. Space Force contracted Gravitics to build an “Orbital Carrier” for $60 million. The Carrier is supposed to carry multiple maneuverable satellites to rapidly respond to spaceborne threats.

OBSERVATION - Intended to keep us a step ahead of China who is aggressively developing similar capabilities.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

One of the world’s leading oncologists is sounding the alarm after linking the “global epidemic of terrifyingly aggressive cancers” to the spike protein from Covid mRNA “vaccines.”

Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, a surgeon who made billions inventing cancer drugs, dropped the bombshell during a new interview with Tucker Carlson.
Soon-Shiong explained that rapidly developing aggressive cancers started skyrocketing during the pandemic.

He described to Carlson how the spike protein from COVID-19 – and the mRNA “vaccines” that are meant to stop it – enters every blood cell in the human body, causing cancer.

Carlson alarmingly noted that billions of people around the world received Covid mRNA “vaccines.”

https://slaynews.com/news/top-oncologist-sounds-alarm-global-epidemic-terrifyingly-aggressive-cancers/

OBSERVATION - This topic has been quiet, not because of lack of activity, but because of the overwhelming other actions in other areas. Believe it or not, going way back to 2020-21 stages of the wuhan PLANdemic, cancer risk as well as damage to the immune system were identified, but reports/documentation was squashed by medical and science journals. Over the past year+ those gates have opened and confirmed what were called ‘conspiracy theories’

POLITICAL FRONT –

House leaders are scheduling a floor vote for the No Rogue Rulings Act of 2025, which would limit the authority of lower federal courts to issue nationwide injunctions against the White House. The bill would require a randomly selected three-judge panel to respond to lawsuits in multiple districts, intended to prevent forum shopping.

***
Much of “Signalgate” is lowering in visibility. I suspect that much is due to the unveiling of the aid that added Goldberg to the chat as well as other questions concerning Goldberg’s conduct and now the revelation that the CEO of NPR is a biggie on the Signal board of directors.

This apparent ‘leak’ is the most serous one following leaks to the press from DHS sources on illegal raids in various cities - giving illegals a heads up to leave the targeted areas. There are a lot of moles still in out there and more leaks can be expected. The Trump team needs to double and triple check their OPSEC / COMSEC posture.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump moving forward with tariffs to commence in April. He is warning that any retaliatory tariffs will be met with substantially higher tariffs by the US.

Trump has gotten results from the threats, as noted in previous posts a lot of companies are in a rush to shift production to the US to avoid tariffs while other countries are negotiating to avoid tariffs by removing their own tariffs.

Some on the left are complaining of the increased costs to Americans. In once case citing that a Ferrari will cost $10k more. Well, mister/missus average American is not going to feel that effect. In all, I expect that tariffs won’t last for long given the size of the US economy versus the world and that its going to hurt these other nations a lot sooner and harder than any US impacts.

China –

(FO) Taiwan’s Agriculture Minister told his legislature that Taiwan’s state-run food reserves normally last eight to twelve months. He also said there are five and a half months worth of grains still in store and that none of these calculations include the private sector reserves.

OBSERVATION - The longer the food supply, the greater chance it can hold out while reinforcements run the Chinese blockade with supplies.

Russia -

*****
Putin proposed discussing the introduction of temporary governance in Ukraine under the auspices of the UN and a number of countries in order to hold elections there

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Rainy conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 60s range.

(ISW). Zelensky warned that Russia is preparing for a spring offensive in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts.

Russian forces remain unlikely to conduct a successful offensive operation to seize Sumy City but would likely leverage future offensive operations into Sumy Oblast and other oblasts that Russian forces do not currently occupy to demand that Ukraine cede additional territory to Russia, particularly amid discussions of a potential future peace in Ukraine.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia attacked Ukraine with 163 Shahed drones of which 89 were shot down and another 51 were suppressed by EW or either lost in location without doing harm.

It can be noticed that a bigger amount of Shaheds have been able to get past Ukrainian air defense and inflict damage due to an improved ‘swarm attack’ strategy.

Russian losses per 28/03/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff

+1860 men
+17 tanks
+61 AFVs
+122 (?!) artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system

Drones hit Dnipro City again as well as Zaporizhzhia, and Kyiv

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk and Sumy oblasts; near Lyman, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk; and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Kursk -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims control of Gogolevka village of Kursk region

Summary —

Three notable items in order. Warnings of a new Russia offensive continue to be made by Zelensky. While the likelihood of Russia being able to gather a force large enough for any kind of effective offensive is low, the potential for an attempt to seize a part of Sumy Oblast as noted above, could be used as a tool for Russia to demand the surrender of the whole Oblast. However, of note, there seems to be an increase in artillery strikes against targets in Sumy Oblast border areas - so an offensive attempt cannot be ruled out in the near term.

I’ve noted increasing Russian success with their drone attacks, and now Ukraine sources are admitting that Russia’s success appears to be what they call ‘swarm attacks’. This isn’t spectacular and is a surprise that Russia took so long to figure this tactic out. It is basically throwing so many drones against one target that they overwhelm the air defense system, allowing some drones to reach their targets.

Finally, heavy fighting along the front has resulted in minor changes for both sides. Essentially a stalemate over all.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hezbollah fires a couple rockets into the Galilee area, Israel is responding with massive airstrikes across Lebanon.

- Anti-Hamas protests manage to continue in Gaza with Hamas threats against them.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Anti Hamxs protests continued for the third day.

Hamxs showed up at an anti-Hamxs protest in Gaza today, firing into the air to intimidate demonstrators—after warning they’d treat protesters as “Israeli collaborators.”

Hamas has issued a statement accusing the protesters of being responsible for the collapse of negotiations with Israel, claiming that Israel withdrew from the talks because of them. The statement goes further, vowing to treat the protesters as “collaborators with Israel.”
In other words, Hamas is openly threatening to kill protesters

RUMINT. Hamas is coordinating with PIJ to launch rockets from areas where protests are scheduled in Gaza in an attempt to provoke IAF strikes that would disrupt the marches, reports i24NEWS_EN.

Hamas is reportedly avoiding using violence to shut down the protests out of concern that it could backfire and lead to a bigger rebellion.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Two rockets were fired from Lebanon at Kiryat Shmona this morning. According to the Israeli army, one rocket was intercepted while the second fell short in Lebanon

Hezbollah denies launching rockets this morning. A Hezbollah source claimed that the terrorist organization is not responsible for the two launches toward Kiryat Shmona and the area: “Hezbollah is fully committed to the ceasefire agreement. Hezbollah has no connection to the rockets that were launched today from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.”

Lebanese Prime Minister chairs a security meeting to discuss the latest security developments.

IDF issued an evacuation orders for an area in southern Dahiyeh, Beirut. (NOTE - Dahiyeh neighborhood is the Hezbollah center of operations in Beirut ) Israel’s Defense Minister, Israel Katz, is threatening strikes in Beirut after terror groups in Lebanon fired rockets at northern Israel this morning.

Massive wave of strikes on Lebanon have begun early this morning.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The U.S. Navy and Air Force has launched what appears to be the largest series of strikes tonight against Houthi targets in Yemen, since the strike operation began roughly two weeks ago. Close to 100 precision-strikes are reported to have been launched by both aircraft and naval vessels in the Red Sea, targeting well over 80 military and infrastructure sites, as well as other targets, in the Al-Jawf, Amran, Hodeidah, Saada, Sanaa and other Governorates.

According to U.S. defense officials, Houthi command-and-control centers, air-defense systems, ballistic and cruise missile launchers, drone launch sites, weapons manufacturing facilities, underground weapons storage sites and high-value officials, were targeted during tonight’s wave of strikes

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1905432377989411144?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

***
Houthis launched a couple more missiles at central Israel, both intercepted, but debris hit areas south of Jerusalem.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel continues to prepare for larger operations in Gaza and maintaining pressure on Hamas for now with extensive airstrikes. Keeping an eye on the anti-Hamas protests so see if they are real, or astroturfed as some think. Remember, by and large these protestors also cheered Hama’s actions on Oct 7.

Israel’s ongoing airstrikes across Lebanon and particularly in the Beirut region will hopefully embarrass the Lebanese govt into greater action to uphold their end of the ceasefire by demilitarizing and removing Hezbollah from S Lebanon. So far, Lebanese efforts have been all show and no go. Hezbollah is in no condition to resume operations at the same level as before the ceasefire and revolution in Syria. So a greater threat of fighting in the near term remain low.

Israel air strikes in Syria have backed off for now. Video’s posted to social media show the recent round of airstrikes setting off large secondaries and destroying a lot of infrastructure at these former Assad military bases. Lacking armor, fighters and artillery, the Syrian govt is unlikely to try to force the issues with Israel. Threats still remain from Turkey but since Turkey wasn’t holding these bases, hard for them to justify attacking Israeli forces.

Houthis continue to lob a missile or two at Israel, to be easily shot down by Arrow or THAAD missiles. The reports of massive US airstrikes across Houthi held areas of Yemen - by some reports the largest to date - appear to be taking affect and diminishing their capability for continued threats to the Red Sea.

Overnight’s airstrikes also appear to be another round of attempted leadership hits. The ‘old town’ section of Sanaa was reportedly hit, avoided in the past because its historic significance. Houthi leaders seeking areas of safety - not happening under this watch.

Against Iran, the clock is ticking.

Iran –

Iran’s ambassador to Baghdad: We refuse to negotiate our ballistic missiles.

Iran’s ambassador to Baghdad: Trump’s message to Tehran included a request to dissolve or merge the Popular Mobilization Forces, which is unacceptable to us.

***
Iran has sent a response through Oman to President Donald Trump’s letter in which he urged Tehran to reach a new nuclear deal, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was cited as saying Thursday by the state run IRNA news agency.

“Our policy is still to not engage in direct negotiations while under maximum pressure and military threats, however, as it was the case in the past, indirect negotiations can continue,” Araqchi said, according to the IRNA.

Earlier Thursday, Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said that Tehran has not closed all doors to resolve its disputes with the U.S. and is ready for indirect negotiations.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/iran-donald-trump-letter-response/2025/03/27/id/1204672/

***
“The IC (Intelligence Community) continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003,” Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing.

The report did note that there have been more calls inside Iran to reverse the ban on nuclear weapons, which have grown in response to Israeli aggression in the region.

“In the past year, there has been an erosion of a decades-long taboo on discussing nuclear weapons in public that has emboldened nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decision-making apparatus,” the report reads.

“Khamenei remains the final decision maker over Iran’s nuclear program, to include any decision to develop nuclear weapons,” it notes.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/03/us-intelligence-says-iran-is-not-building-a-nuclear-weapon/

OBSERVATION - First the negotiation tango. This is a delay tactic designed to be a defense against an attack. By “negotiating” is prolongs US military asset deployments and in a way, begins to degrade their readiness for operations. Also attempts to show to the world just how ‘peaceful’ Iran’s intents are vs mean nasty Satan/US.

Second, the short time to break thru to 90% pure uranium is still on the books. The only obstacle is Khamenei’s reluctance to go the final mile. Is this enough to thwart a US/Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear development facilities? At this stage I believe the answer is no. The US/Israel cannot wait until AFTER final enrichment and demonstration test to prevent the construction of a bomb. The time is now to destroy the facilities that are poised to finish the efforts in as short of time as possible - before interdiction.

Finally, the denial of the actual production of a nuclear warhead. Folks, the bomb mechanism may well already be in place and constructed, awaiting the introduction of the enriched uranium. So Gabbard’s statement may be a little word play.

Gabbard’s intel briefing was likely set before the command authority and included in the deliberations - at least I hope so. The current build up to a potential strike must be taking into account the willingness of Iran to take the final steps towards the bomb and do so in a short period of time.

Syria -

SANA, citing the Ministry of Interior: Hezbollah cells were planning to carry out criminal operations in the Sayyida Zeinab area in the Damascus countryside.

Turkey –

Protests continue in Turkey in the face of increasingly violent efforts by police and security forces. Now, in an attempt to combat protests: Turkey announced the suspension of operations of several public transportation stations in central Istanbul.

Protests now have taken on a decisive aspect of skirmishes between protestors and police/security. No evidence of waning support for protests, though numerous may be decreased by removing public transit to protest areas.

Here comes third winter for the Redoubt

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
- “Hands Off 2025” on Saturday April 5th.

***
Anti-Tesla protests dominate the activities of the left this weekend. Though possibilities of violence and vandalism occurring during these protests are considered low, later violence and vandalism at dealerships and individual owners can be expected.

Over the past week, many vandals have been identified and arrested for attacks on dealerships and individual owners. For the most part they are facing felony convictions.

Efforts continue over the interwebs/ social websites to rally support for the April 5th “Hands Off 2025” series of protests across the nation

***
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi refused to condemn the violence against Tesla dealerships and vehicle owners, point blank ignoring a reporter’s question asking her to disavow the terroristic behavior.

However, Pelosi appears to believe such incidents are not worthy of a comment.

“What do you think about the violence at the Tesla dealerships? What’s your take on it?” the reporter asked Pelosi.

“I’m so sorry, I’m a little bit late here right now,” Pelosi responded.

https://www.dailyfetched.com/nancy-pelosi-silent-on-tesla-attacks-refuses-to-condemn-violence/

OBSERVATION - Not surprising, she’s already in the past condoned violence by the left against Trump et al. That’s all the democrats have at this stage - violence or the threat thereof.

***
I’m noting some increased concern of a Taliban sponsored terror strike in the US in the near future, possibly reflecting the threaten hospital attack noted above.

Associated with this is a claim from multiple, independent sources of a 1000 strong Afghanistan contingent that smuggled into the US illegally organizing such a potential series of attacks.

Hard to pin down the reliability of these reports. But I recommend caution and vigilance as the biden open border policy has allowed documented terrorisits to enter the country.

***
Cooper Jo Frederick, 24, of Fort Collins, Colorado, was arrested in connection with an incident at a Tesla dealership in Loveland, Colorado.

Frederick allegedly ignited & threw an incendiary device at a Tesla dealership. The device landed between two vehicles, starting a fire that endangered several people who were inside cleaning the facility at the time.

https://x.com/MilaLovesJoe/status/1904627109500469299

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

(FO) Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said it looks inevitable that tariffs will boost inflation in the near term, and the Fed should hold interest rates steady. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin rapid policy changes by the Trump administration have created a sense of instability in the business community.

RELATED - The Dow had a rough week with losses due in part to uncertainty regarding the impacts of tariffs on the US economy.

OBSERVATION - Besides being over priced the Dow has always been very skittish over any uncertainty in economic forecasting. Not being a market expert, I suspect that the Dow will drift lower until foreign economic policy and tariffs stabilize over the near future.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

After being ordered to the U.S. Central Command’s (CENTCOM) Area-of-Responsibility earlier this week by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) departed today from Guam heading towards the Middle East, expected to arrive in the region sometime in mid to late April.

OBSERVATION - Guam serves to restock / resupply the CSG for it trip and actions in CENTCOM AOR.

POLITICAL FRONT –

President Donald Trump signed an executive order Thursday evening abolishing union rights at more than two dozen federal agencies and offices, in a major expansion of the administration’s efforts to shrink the federal government.

The White House cited national security concerns for terminating workers’ ability to bargain collectively, but the order applies at agencies with both direct and indirect links to national security. Those include the entirety of the Departments of Defense, Veterans Affairs, State and Justice, and parts of Homeland Security, Health and Human Services, Interior, Energy and Commerce, among others…

Hours later, eight federal agencies sued a group of unions in federal court in Texas, asking a judge to declare the union contracts void under Trump’s executive order…

Trump invoked his authority under the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978 to cancel the union contracts, taking a sweeping view of what constitutes national security. The administration also moved to end union rights for workers at the Treasury Department, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Federal Communications Commission and the National Science Foundation, among many other agencies.

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2025/03/28/this-is-war-trump-takes-an-axe-to-government-unions-n3801273

OBSERVATION - IMHO, there should be no unions for federal workers. Talk about creating an environment for fraud, waste and abuse!

***
(FO) President Donald Trump issued an executive order yesterday directing the federal government to cancel contracts with law firm WilmerHale, revoke the firm’s security clearances, and bar the law firm from federal buildings due to WilmerHale’s participation in the Mueller investigation. WilmerHale is the fifth law firm targeted by the Trump administration in the last month. Trump rescinded an EO against law firm Paul, Weiss after the firm agreed to commit $40 million in free legal services to support Trump.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Ford, the leader of Ontario’s Progressive Conservative Party, responded swiftly to Trump’s tariff increase during a press conference in Toronto.
In remarks that have stirred controversy, Ford vowed to retaliate against the United States in a manner that would cause significant hardship for American citizens.
“I can assure you one thing,” Ford told reporters. “We’re gonna make sure that we inflict as much pain as possible on the American people.”

https://www.lifezette.com/2025/03/canadas-doug-ford-vows-to-inflict-as-much-pain-as-possible-on-the-american-people-watch/

OBSERVATION - Canada reportedly has a smaller GDP than Texas. He’s wanting to FAFO.

Illegal Immigration –

Sanctuary cities in So Cal are doubling and tripling down on efforts to thwart effort to identify and arrest illegals residing in their cities. City councils have voted to spend millions in an effort to track ICE and associate elements to provide warnings to illegals of imminent arrests.

China –

China is threatening to close down British Steel over tariff and other policy disputes. British Steel produces over 20% of the steel in Britain.

Phillipines –

(FO) U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced at a joint conference with his Philippine counterpart that the U.S. would deploy the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) and unmanned surface vessels (USV) for Balikatan this year. This will significantly enhance the U.S.’ forward-deployed presence and threaten Chinese surface combatants within 100nm of the Philippines.

OBSERVATION - US missiles in the Philippines continue to grow in prominence. The recent increase in the number of Typhon systems with this new system will cause increased pressure on the Chinese navy in the event of a move not only against Philippine territory, but Taiwan as well.

Russia -

*****
UN rejects Putin’s call for temporary administration in Ukraine. Guterres says Ukraine’s legitimate gov must be respected, dismissing external governance under UN as part of a peace deal

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Rainy conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 60s range.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 172 various type drones of which 94 were shot down and another 69 were either lost in location or suppressed by electronic warfare without doing harm.

The massive strike caused severe destruction and fires, hitting a hotel-restaurant complex, 11 private houses, garages, and a service station. Apartment buildings and 21 cars were also damaged. News reports state that about 20 Russian suicide drones struck Dnipro. Large fires reported in the city.

5 people wounded as result of Russian missile strike in Kryvyi Rih

Russian losses per 29/03/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff.

+1740 men
+23 tanks
+34 AFVs
+64 artillery
+1 MLRS
+3 AD systems

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Belgorod Oblast.

Summary —

Math indicates that the Shaded numbers are not quite accurate. Above indicate that only 9 managed to get thru defenses to hit their targets, while during the same time frame Dnipro was hammered by about 20 drones alone. Ukraine data for primarily Ukraine consumption. This is the second day Dnipro has been hammered by Russian drones.

One thing the Russian drone attacks may provoke is a major response by Ukraine on the Kerch Strait bridge. If destroyed, that could break things wide open and essentially close any hope of a negotiated ceasefire in the near term.

Heavy fighting along the front, but no reports of any significant territory changes. Rumors continue of an impending Russian offensive at many points. These casualty numbers suggest that Russian is going to have a hard time creating a reserve and massing it for an attack while at the same time suffering this level of losses.

Another aspect of an offensive is the need for tanks and armored vehicles. Russia is running short of both and increasingly relying on soft sided vehicles and even simple walking to get forces in place and to assault Ukraine positions.

On the political side, Russia is running circles around the west with their essentially unchallenged propaganda against Ukraine and the west in general.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas not looking to replace senior political leaders taken out by Israel for the near future.

- More intense airstrikes by US forces against the Houthis

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Hamas has announced that senior political leadership is not going to be replaced any time soon. Speculation is that Israel has potential successors targeted for air strikes as soon as they are announced. Such political leaders probably will operation undercover for now.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Lebanon still reverberating from Israel’s airstrikes of yesterday.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi-affiliated media in Yemen is reporting that General Abd al-Khaliq al-Houthi, the brother of Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi as well as Commander of the Republican Guard and several other units with the Houthi Ministry of Defense, was killed in a recent U.S. precision-strike alongside Houthi Chief of General Staff, Major General Muhammad Abdul Karim Al-Ghamari and several other senior leaders and officers in the Houthi Defense Ministry.

***
(ISW) US Air Campaign Against the Houthis: US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted at least 44 airstrikes targeting Houthi infrastructure and leadership in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. Some Houthi officials have already begun threatening Saudi Arabia and the UAE, likely as part of an effort to compel Saudi Arabia and the UAE to pressure the United States to halt its airstrikes.

***
Rumors of remaining Houthi leaders fleeing the cities for either the countryside or departure out of country

***
Rumors that Houthi representatives have reached out to Egypt and some gulf states to get support in getting the US to stop its air campaign.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Iranian Foreign Ministry: The international community must take strict measures to prevent Israeli violations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The focus of Israel continues to be in preparation for the next phase of fighting in Gaza. Efforts for a hostage release based ceasefire have all but evaporated, though ‘negotiation ‘ reported continue.

Israel air strikes seem to have nailed Hezbollah pretty hard. Hezbollah may have let their guard down in thinking they could re concentrate leadership command centers in Beirut and other areas - particularly since the more serious threat to the organization was HTS of Syria.

US positioning of the USS Vinson by mid to late April gives us a picture of how much time Israel has with which to deal with Hamas and then swing in support of a US strike on Iran.

Iran –

Trump: “Iran is very high on my list of things to watch, and as you probably know, I sent them a letter just recently, and I said, ‘You’re going to have to make a decision one way or the other,’” Trump said at the White House.

“And we’re going to either have to talk and talk it out, or very bad things are going to happen to Iran, and I don’t want that to happen,” he added.
“My big preference, and I don’t say this through strength or weakness, is we work it out with Iran. But if we don’t work it out, bad, bad things are going to happen to Iran,” stressed the President.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, swiftly dismissed the US offer, calling it “a deception” and arguing that engaging in talks with the Trump administration would “tighten the knot of sanctions and increase pressure on Iran.”

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-77/

OBSERVATION - As said before, the clock is ticking down to action against Iran. Current information indicates that the USS Vinson will be on station by the end of April - one month. Still awaiting word on which of three other CSGs will join the Vinson and Truman.

Iran’s offer on “indirect” talks is a delaying tactic, as noted previously. The importance of action at the end of the two month window is critical to maintaining the arab perception of US strength. The development of forces in the region are very much indicative that Trump will deploy the maximum potential strike at his choosing.

Though the main threat of US strikes on Iran are looking to peak the end of April, the assets are clearly available in the region should the US have to respond to any preemptive activity by Iran before then.

Iraq -

(ISW). Nationalist Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr announced on March 27 that his Shia National Movement will not participate in the Iraqi parliamentary elections in November 2025. Iraqi politicians are concerned that Sadr’s non-involvement in the upcoming elections could destabilize Iraq.

OBSERVATION - Looooong time since having to discuss Sadr. He is a thorn in the flesh to the Iraqi govt as well as Iranian influence in the region. My initial thoughts are that the concern here is Sadr setting up a semiautonomous zone in Iraq.

Turkey –

Protests / riots reportedly continue throughout the country, but details are few and far between due to govt censorship and shutting down of the internet.

Misc of Note –

I may have already noted in previous and will again here, I’m not tracking every activist judgement against Trump efforts. It is enough at this stage to recognize that a coup-lite attempt is being made to upset the agenda. For the most part, I expect the efforts of the left to fail, but these things will have to be put down finally by the USSC - if they are not totally compromised. If the USSC permits this ursurpation of Executive Branch privileges by the judiciary, then much messier fights will ensue.

A second note extracted from Terror and CW2 above are increasing concerns on my part that the violent leftist actors / protestors are starting to jell and that some sort of a false flag event will be the trigger to ignite violence this summer. The left all through the campaign cycle and even now into the early stages of Trump 47 have been struggling to motivate their sheeple into large scale action. This may be changing, due to the substantial increase in the talk of applying violence from major political leaders, as well as screeching from leftists on social media. The overwhelming silence by democrat political leaders concerning the attacks on Tesla strongly indicate they are ready for the violence to start and only holding back until the most opportune moment or event trigger.

The right largely kept their powder dry in 2020, but doing so again if a similar scale event kicks off this year is becoming questionable. Especially with the increase in calls for armed violence by the left.

Into this explosive mix comes a jihadi attack(s) of strategic scale. I hate being a pessimist, but these are developing into potential realities. Thus I’ve reached another reflection point in reevaluating my emergency preparedness status, reviewing terror threat potentials and civil disturbance potentials.

Major decision points being the initiation of any bombing campaign against Iran. Could be as early as the end of next month into the first part of May.

Second date is the evaluation of just how successful the April 5th “Hands Off 2025” protests are and if Antifa and other violent leftist or Islamic elements piggy back onto them to stir up violence.

With these threats, I’m not going to stop my life and curl up in a ball. I fully intend to maintain my plans for the summer, with increased awareness and a few extra preps thrown in. I encourage you to do the same. Become better situationally aware and perhaps reevaluate the threat of terror or riots in your location. Then enjoy your summer with prepared confidence.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
- “Hands Off 2025” on Saturday April 5th.

***
More anti-Tesla / DOGE protests anticipated today. Summary of yesterday’s protests suggest that popular support for such action is lacking and there was abundant evidence of astroturfing the events with paid protestors as well as having to bus in participants.

Several locations saw counter protestors supporting the Tesla dealerships. No significant violence reported.

Banners and signs carried by protestors were supportive of further violence towards dealerships and owners, calling to burn Tesla.

OBSERVATION - As these protests continue and owners are threatened, best to keep situationally aware. The apparent waning of support for these protests call into question the sustainability of this effort in the long term.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

Presenting “Why COVID Vaccination Is Still Crucial for Children,” via Web MD
:
Vaccinated children are much less likely to develop “long COVID” than are unvaccinated children, according to a new study that researchers hope will convince parents to keep kids’ immunizations up to date.
Many parents don’t get their children vaccinated against COVID-19 because pediatric cases are generally mild. But the study of post-COVID condition (PCC), as scientists call long COVID, supports continued vigilance*, researchers say.

*”Continued vigilance” means keeping parents in a state of perpetual fear.

Continuing:

The new study looked at children ages 5 to 17 in four states from July 2021 through May 2023. If they’d been vaccinated prior to infection, their chances of developing one or more PCC symptoms were reduced by 57%...
Of the 622 children who had at least one positive COVID test during the study period, 28 (5%) reported PCC symptoms and 594 (95%) didn’t report any during the follow-up period.”

“Of the children with PCC in the study, 57% had been vaccinated.

https://pjmedia.com/benbartee/2025/03/30/in-2025-webmd-claims-covid-vax-still-crucial-for-children-n4938410

OBSERVATIONS - Globally, the wuhan jab is declining, even being banned for its detrimental effects on the health of its recipients. The jab has been proven to be totally ineffective in preventing infection. The globalists just want more to be infected by the mRNA mix contained in the jab.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Sunday ‘news’ shows may bring interesting discussions on Monday.

Signalgate is waning, so I expect the media talking heads to try to push the issue on Sunday shows.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump infers that military options on Greenland are not off the table. WTH?

Illegal Immigration –

Countless millions/billions being spent on keeping illegals housed in 5 star hotels is drawing increased scrutiny. Lacking federal support, NY is having to draw on its already dead on the table budget to sustain these grifters.

China –

China has passed a new anti-sanctions law that could result in the seizure of foreign intellectual property of companies operating in China.
These “anti-sanctions” regulations are a viewed as a license to steal from foreign companies.

Unconfirmed reports that foreign companies are looking to exit China as quickly as feasible. Remember, this involves nearly all of the big name companies.

Japan –

Analysts have noted increased Russian and Chinese incursions into exclusion zones of Japan’s southern islands. Some believe this is a coordinated effort.

Russia -

*****

An Aurus limousine believed to be part of Vladimir Putin’s official car fleet exploded and caught fire in Moscow. Footage appears to show the £275,000 Aurus Senat ablaze on a street just north of Moscow’s FSB secret service Lubyanka headquarters.
The car is believed to be part of fleet of vehicles belonging to the Kremlin’s Presidential Property Management Department. Images show the engine fire spreading to the the interior of the limousine. It was not clear who was in the vehicle at the time of the incident.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2034188/vladimir-putin-limo-fleet-explosion

NOTE - This comes several days after Zelensky claimed that putin would soon be dead. This may trigger a sever retaliation against Ukraine.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Rainy conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 50s range.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight Shahed attack. Out of 111 launched, 65 were shot down and another 35 were either suppressed by electronic warfare or were lost in location and did not reach their intended target.

Russian losses per 30/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1510 men
+14 tanks
+20 AFVs
+56 artillery
+2 MLRS

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Belgorod Oblast.

Kursk -

Fighting heavy in the region overnight.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Zaporizhzhia village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Summary —

Ukraine still struggling with Shahed attacks.

Heavy fighting continues along the front. Weather conditions suggest that the spring mud season is beginning and may further hinder Russian efforts.

Still a lot of rumors concerning a Russian Spring/Summer offensive. If Russia attempts such, they will be having to push a lot of new forces into the theatre as well as shift forces away from current sectors. The big issue is that Russia is sorely lacking in tanks and APCs to exploit any breach of Ukrainian defenses, that is provide they are even able to reach those defenses. Some analysis suggests that a whopping 85% of Ukrainian engagements of Russia forces are fought using UAVs. Russia is struggling to blunt these attacks with new tactics and structural defenses, but so far have been mostly unsuccessful. Losses of APCs have forced Russians to use soft sided trucks to rush to the defensive positions - resulting in even more losses.

Analysis of commercial satellite imagery of Russian mothball stockpiles of tanks and APCs showing that these ‘reserves’ are nearly completely used up.

With these things noted, is appears to be putin’s belief that Russia can force a military victory and may well push his generals into some sort of a new offensive. Most likely could be directed towards Sumy using forces used to push Ukraine mostly out of Kursk.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Newer hostage release proposals from both sides

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Proposals / counter proposals on the hostages

Hamas agrees to release 5 live hostages over 50 days . 5 installments, one hostage every ten days. Israel to release hundreds of prisoners for each hostage.

Israeli demands :
11 live hostages
Half of the kidnapped people
In 40 days.
Release of all 11 hostages alive at the beginning of the deal
Additionally:
Ensuring the safety of the hostages
A commitment that humanitarian supplies will reach the residents of Gaza, and not Hamas supply stores.

***
Netanyahu: “The cabinet decided yesterday to increase pressure on Hamxs. The military pressure is working.

“The combination of military pressure and political pressure is the only thing that brought back the hostages”

***
Rumors that the IAF has been given the directive to complete plans for an Iranian air strike with an action date of mid summer 2025.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya: Hamas’ weapons in Gaza are a red line, we will not give them up for the sake of any deal.

Hamas has announced that they executed six Palestinians involved in the anti-Hamas protests, accusing them of being “Zionist collaborators.”
NOTE - Anti-Hamas protests appear to have suddenly ceased.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Al Arabiya report: The Lebanese army arrested Syrian-Palestinian suspects in the rocket launch towards northern Israel.

Hezbollah’s Naim Qassem threatened to resume war if Israel continues striking Lebanon, warning of “other options” if demands aren’t met.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Yemeni Armed Forces Spokesman Yahya Saree: We targeted Ben Gurion Airport in the Jaffa area with a “Zulfiqar” ballistic missile that successfully hit its target. Through this operation, we confirm the failure of the U.S. to prevent Yemen from supporting the oppressed Palestinian people. The U.S. raids will not deter us

A ballistic missile launched at Israel by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen was successfully intercepted by air defenses, the military says. The Israeli army says the missile was shot down before crossing the country’s borders.

Al Arabiya Network: 18 American attacks tonight in Yemen, including an attack on a gathering of senior Houthi officials

Houthi spokesman Yahya Sarie claimed they launched cruise missiles and drones at a U.S. Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier in the Red Sea during three separate operations over the last 24 hours.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza situation, Israel continues operations in preparation to support the enlargement of the ground combat component. Netanyahu’s recent policy of negotiations while continuing the attacks may be showing fruit with Hamas’ recent attempted hostage offers. However, it is apparent that their offer is nothing but a delaying tactic trying to maximumize what little leverage they have left. Israel OTOH recognized the weakness of Hamas and is increasing its demands.

I don’t see any agreement in the hostage situation any time soon.

Future ground operation start is imminent, but no exact time frame suggested by Israel.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah officials are beating their chests, threatening Israel following the recent airstrikes that his S Lebanon and Hezbollah sectors in Beirut. Hezbollah is facing two fronts at the moment - Israel and Syria. Resupply of arms and munitions from Iran have been essentially cut off, with the exemption of small amounts smuggled out of Syria. They do not appear to be ready to do much in the short term and if they try to start something, they will likely hide behind the Lebanese Army (who is favorable inclined towards them) to deter Israeli counterstrikes.

Strikes in Syria have ceased for now, as Israel likely reassesses intel regarding the success of recent attacks and identifies additional targets.

Houthis tossed another missile at Israel - shot down. They have the capability to continue this one to two missile per day operation due largely to the survivability of TELs and much smaller, scattered stockpiles of rockets that are difficult to detect. However, these smaller stockpiles are under increasing pressure as US airstrikes take out the big storage sites and now are increasingly focused on finding and destroying these smaller ones - in addition to the TELs.
In the near term, I expect the B2s from Diego Garcia to make a visit on the Houthis soon.

Iran is breathing threats against the US and Israel. Nearly all can be consider bluster. It has always been a worry that Iran would strike other nations with US bases in the region. That is why I think Trump will have a VERY large naval presence in the region to provide anti-missile defenses as well as neuter the Iranian naval threat.

Recently, in additions to its underground missile ‘ cities’, Iran has been touting its “battleship” and “aircraft carrier” Both vessels converted cargo ships. The battle ship contains a bunch of ballistic missiles while the aircraft carrier carries drones. Both likely will see the bottom of the sea within the first hours of any US strike.

Window for the US campaign against Iran continues to be the end of April / first of May.

Iran –

Iran’s president says Tehran has rejected direct negotiations with the U.S. in response to Trump’s letter.

Telegraph: Iran has issued a warning: if Donald Trump orders an attack on Iran, Tehran will retaliate by striking the U.S.-U.K. naval base on Diego Garcia in the Chagos Islands.

The Iranian official further added to the threat to attack Diego Garcia by also threatening to attack Turkey and countries hosting U.S. bases in the Middle East, stating, “There will be no distinction in targeting British or American forces if Iran is attacked from any base in the region or within the range of Iranian missiles. When the time comes, it won’t matter whether you’re an American, British, or Turkish soldier – you will be targeted if your base is used by Americans.”

OBSERVATIONS - See Israel above for additional. If Iran targets US bases in Turkey, all heck may break out as the Turks have no sense of humor to any Iranian military hostility - as evidenced by their support of the HTS in removing Iran and Hezbollah presence from Syria. Could also result in an Article 5 call up, involving NATO in the fight.

Iran does not have assets that can reach Diego Garcia but does have plentiful shorter ranged systems that can cover the Persian Gulf region. This is probably the greatest leverage Iran currently has against a US lead air strike(s) on their nuclear program.

Bottom line - clock is continuing to count down towards the Trump warning of bad things happening to Iran.

Turkey –

In spite of violent crackdowns by police and security forces, tens (hundreds) of thousands of people at an opposition protest in Turkey against the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.

Black Swans -

The deadliest earthquake in 95 years hit Myanmar on Friday, March 28, 2025, leaving over 1,000 fatalities and injuring over 2,400 people in the country. The M7.7 quake was powerful enough to send tremors as far as Thailand, where at least 10 people lost their lives, 68 were injured, and about 80 remain missing.

OBSERVATION - Natural disasters are nasty buggers. Here in the US it has been quite a number of years since the last big earthquake that has hit a major urban area. NOTE- I’m not doom predicting a big one in the near term, only pointing out that large areas of the west coast and east central US are in potential target zones. For the Cascadia, San Andreas and the New Madrid it is not a matter of IF but WHEN there is a big one. All three could produce substantial devastation which, if inflicted on the country in its current condition could create massive economic and social impacts far beyond the epicenter.

As always, you have to be aware of the many threats where you live - mother nature to the uncouth nature of men.

And as tornado season is hitting hard this spring, for you FREEPERS in tornado alley - take necessary precautions. Tornados we can predict - earthquakes (outside of know hazard zones) timing we can’t.

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