Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2025
For historical reference TM2024 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?q=1&;page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah
I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.
So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power
Some of the wealthiest zip codes in the country are clustered around Washington DC. I'm guessing lots of these folks have 'beach houses' much like Biden and on 'public servant pay'. Without the 'insurance policy' of being a former President like Sniffer. So yeah, good chance they'll attempt a coup. Wide eyed stupid press bimbos won't be able to save them as more people wake up to the fact the 'press' was paid off all along with online sites and drag queens.
Those who screech the loudest and try the hardest to stop this are the ones who should be investigated first.
I agree - that makes sense metmom.
The hammer must come down hard on this.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
(H/T ransomnote) Lefties are passing around this ‘Economic Blackout’ scheduled for Feb 27, brought to you by “The Peoples Union.”
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/4296342/posts?q=1&;page=1#1
OBSERVATION - The left is continuing to struggle to put together a cohesive and broad response to Trump 2.0. I really don’t think this will have one bit of impact. As Rush used to say - Symbolism over substance.
***
Philadelphia broke into mayhem following the Eagle’s win, but then such violence was expected no matter what the final results of the game were.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
Got thru the Super bowl without incident
***
Iran’s threat to assassinate Donald Trump during the 2024 campaign was far more serious than publicly known — and led to extraordinary precautions by his team that included using a decoy plane to avert a feared attempt on his life…
- Law enforcement officials warned Trump last year that Tehran had placed operatives in the U.S. with access to surface-to-air missiles.
- Trump’s team worried that the Iranians could try to down his easily recognizable personal jet — better known as “Trump Force One” — as it was taking off or landing.
- The concern intensified after a foiled assassination attempt of Trump at his golf course in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Sept. 15.
Iran hasn’t been linked to that incident or the shooting in Pennsylvania two months earlier, in which a bullet nicked Trump in the ear.
During a Pennsylvania trip, Secret Service agents spotted a drone tracking Trump’s motorcade—they opened the moonroof and took it down with an electromagnetic gun.
OBSERVATIONS - These threats were identified here as well as other sources last year. This latest article is bringing to light how much more serious they were - especially the drone issue. Those threats are still high.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Senator Andy Kim (D-NJ) said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the Democrats are considering not helping the Trump administration fund the government.
Kim said, “In a few weeks, the Republicans are going to try to figure out how they move forward, and they have, for the last two years, needed Democratic votes for every single continuing resolution, and they should not count on that this time.”
Welker said, “Just to be clear, Senator, you are open to voting yes to shut down the government?”
Kim said, “This is on them. This is about whether they can get the votes. They are the majority. If they cannot govern, that is for the American people to see. I’ve worked in government. I’ve worked through multiple government shutdowns. I would be the last person who would want to get to that stage, but we are at a point where we are basically on the cusp of a constitutional crisis. Seeing this administration taking steps that are so clearly illegal.”
OBSERVATION - The left is trying to regroup to exert itself on this defensive line. I am skeptical how well it will be received by the American people who for the moment are increasing in their enthusiasm for the DOGE purges. How the republican congressional leadership handles this will be critical. The democrats are drawing the line in the sand, NO deals, NO appeasement, they get 110% of what they want or shut it down.
They want a constitutional crisis and think it will work in their favor. I think their plans are based on old political assumptions that are no longer valid under Trump 2.0.
Though it is doubtful that congress would go into recess during any shut down, the specter of “recess appointments” loom big.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump job approval hits an all time high, 70% say he is keeping his word from the campaign. (CBS yougov poll)
OBSERVATION - Results from liberal CBS polling. Liberal heads exploding as the period covers recent events.
Trump was received with thunderous ovations at the Super Bowl while Taylor Swift was boo’d.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024
The FBI has put Americans on high alert, warning them not to fall for a particular type of scam text messages, as security experts fear that Chinese cybercriminals are behind them.
The alert from the FBI came last April and advised people to delete any SMS messages on their cell phones that told them they had unpaid tolls.
The law enforcement agency explained that these are phishing attacks, or more precisely, smishing attacks since they are text messages instead of emails.
OBSERVATION - From last April! As always be very suspicious of texts and emails that come your way. There are some good cyber security videos on how to recognize these scams. Never click on a link that they provide - never.
Illegal Immigration –
A federal court on Sunday issued a temporary restraining order blocking the Trump administration from sending three Venezuelan immigrants held in New Mexico to the Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, detention camp as part of the president’s efforts to remove illegal immigrants from the U.S.
Lawyers for the trio said in a legal filing that the detainees “fit the profile of those the administration has prioritized for detention in Guantánamo, i.e. Venezuelan men detained in the El Paso area with (false) charges of connections with the Tren de Aragua gang.”
In the filing, the lawyers asked a U.S. District Court in New Mexico for a temporary restraining order to block the administration from flying them to the U.S. military base. The lawyers noted that “the mere uncertainty the government has created surrounding the availability of legal process and counsel access is sufficient to authorize the modest injunction.”
OBSERVATION - More preliminary injunctions
North/South Korea –
NK providing workers to Russia in large numbers, violating UN sanctions and helping to meet manpower shortages caused by the Ukraine war.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
VLADIMIR Putin’s apocalyptic Satan-2 nuclear missile has been branded an “absolute failure” - despite the Russian despot bragging it is “unstoppable”.
Putin has sacked the boss of Russian space agency Roscosmos after the killer weapon blew up on a launchpad before even taking off during a missile test.
Russia has long boasted the 208-ton intercontinental hypersonic missile - capable of carrying nuclear warheads - is “unstoppable” by the West.
The 15,880mph missile system is said to be the size of a 14-story tower block.
But Putin is now said to be frustrated over the production failures of the so-called apocalyptic weapon.
A source told Telegram channel VChK-OGPU with links to the Russian security service that Putin fired Yury Borisov, 68, because of a lack of progress with Satan-2.
They said: “Putin’s anger was primarily triggered by the absolute failure in the production and deployment of the Satan-2 missile system.
“There is no proper electronic component base for mass production and the full range of tests hasn’t been completed.
“Issues with the liquid-fuelled ‘Sarmat’ operation have not been resolved.”
While the development of the missile system development has strictly been kept under the sheets, reports have leaked out of multiple test failures.
Satellite images taken in September showed a massive crater at the Satan nuke launch site after a “major blast during a failed test”.
It was reportedly the fourth failure of a Satan-2 test, of which there is only one known success, which Putin oversaw in April 2022.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/33287048/putins-satan-2-absolute-failure/amp/
OBSERVATION - Multiple issues Russia is dealing with. Sanctions that prevent the high tech hardware for such rockets, corruption and grift through out the Russian system and the general funding hits from a weakened economy.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the teens - 20 range. Mostly fair
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force reports another large-scale Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 83 launched, 61 were shot down and another 22 (of which some were drone simulators/dummy’s) were suppressed by electronic warfare. Some damages reported from falling debris.
Russian losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1170 men
+9 tanks
+16 AFVs
+35 artillery systems
+3 AD systems (!)
+109 service vehicles
Ukrainian drones struck the Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai overnight. “Debris” from a downed drone also hit a residential building.
Meanwhile Russia’s MoD claims 15 drones were shot down over its territory.
Summary —
The intensity of the fighting appears to be on a slight decline once again. This may also reflect more rumors of tired, demoralized Russian forces being captured at various locations along the front. Reports of demoralized Russian forces have popped up many times over the past couple years with limited evidence of reduced action by Russia. However, as has been noted, Russia has thrown a lot of people and resources at the fight over the past year with very little to show for it. Personnel losses have limited troop rotations away from the front for rest and reconstitution. Will have to monitor to see if this develops into a much more major condition or just one that is localized.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel putting together demands for Phase 2.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The Israeli delegation to Doha returns to Israel after it had no mandate to proceed with the negotiations over the second phase of the Gaza agreement. The Israeli cabinet will be convened just tomorrow evening
***
President Trump on Sunday said he was losing patience with the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas after seeing footage of the Palestinian terror group releasing Israeli hostages over the weekend, whose appearance he compared to Holocaust survivors.
“They look like Holocaust survivors. They were in horrible condition. They were emaciated,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on his way to New Orleans to attend the Super Bowl. “I don’t know how much longer we can take that ... at some point we’re going to lose our patience.”
Trump’s reaction to seeing images of the three hostages, who appeared gaunt upon their release on Saturday, brought fresh uncertainty over the deal’s fate given 76 hostages remain in Gaza.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-841398
***
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to bring Israel’s demands for the second phase of the hostage deal to the decision-making Security Cabinet for approval on Tuesday.
According to Israeli assessments, Hamas is unlikely to accept the conditions, which include the exile of its leadership from Gaza, the disarmament of its military wing and the release of all remaining hostages. If met, these terms would mark the end of Israel’s military operations in Gaza.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/h111bjoitjg#autoplay
***
The National Security Council in the Prime Minister’s Office has instructed government ministries and emergency bodies to prepare for the possibility of a tsunami off Israel’s shore resulting from a big earthquake on the Greek island of Santorini.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Israeli Army Radio: After the complete withdrawal from the Netzarim Corridor, the Israeli army reduces reserve forces in the Gaza Strip: The 99th Division, which had controlled the Netzarim Corridor area for the past three months, left the Strip. The reserve brigade “Harel” (Brigade 10) also completed its mission in the Netzarim area, and its soldiers returned home.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli aircraft bombed the Jabour Heights in southern Lebanon.
Israeli warplanes struck targets in the Iqlim al-Tuffah region, and area between Azza and Bafrouh in Nabatieh, southern Lebanon
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel conducted “a precise intelligence-based strike on an underground tunnel crossing from Syrian territory into Lebanese territory that was used by Hezbollah to smuggle weapons in the Beqqa area and has been struck in the past,” the Israeli army announced Sunday
***
Daraa 24 correspondent reported, quoting a local source, that there were movements of Israeli forces stationed on Tal al-Ahmar al-Gharbi in the countryside of Quneitra Governorate. Machinery and bulldozers were seen descending from the hill, and it is likely that their destination is the village of Abu Ghara in the area. The correspondent added that Israeli warplanes are flying intensively
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Israeli security and military forces continue uptempo operations in northern portions of Judea and Samaria.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Erdogan: Israel cannot be allowed to continue as if nothing happened after causing destruction, suffering and massacres
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas lost a lot of global support with he demonstrable horrific treatment of the hostages that were released this weekend. Most severely is the shift in Trump’s views towards a more aggressive response.
The additional pull out of Israeli forces from Gaza will see those units refitted and rearmed in short order. The probably that Phase 2 talks will fail has increased due to Hamas’ abuse of hostages and Trump seems more than willing to allow Israel to finish the task without the constraints biden placed on them.
Lebanon and Syria is appearing to settle down to the standard Sunni / Shia fight that will go back and forth across the border region. It only helps Israel in that it pins elements of Hezbollah and supportive Lebanese army, while further disrupting what limited smuggling there has been. Hezbollah has claimed Israel is working in coordination with Syria, but denied by Israel. What is apparent is that Israel is monitoring the situation and if Hezbollah is exposed in a significant manner, Israel will hit it as a violation of the current ceasefire agreement.
Operations in Judea and Samaria continue in an uptempo manner, with the general pause in the Gaza/Lebanon situation permitting more resources to be devoted to stamping out Hamas and affiliated groups in the region. In many ways, the effort has been helped by the Palestinian Authority who sees these groups challenging it for control of the area.
Behind it all is the ongoing concerns and guessing as to how far along Iran is on creating a nuclear bomb.
Lebanon -
The Lebanon-Syria border clashes have intensified, with both sides now firing rockets across the border into neighbouring towns
HTS fired a volley of rockets into Baalbek-Hermel governorate, and unidentified forces from Lebanon (possibly the Lebanese Army) fired back.
(Middle East Spectator)
Lebanese News Agency: The Lebanese army today completes its deployment in the northern border area of the city of Hermel with Syria after the withdrawal of Lebanese clan fighters
Syria -
The Syrian Border Security Administration announces its complete control over the Syrian-Lebanese border after clashes with gangs smuggling weapons and drugs
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4296478/posts
“CBS Poll: Trump at 53% Job Approval, 59% Approve of Deportations”
What’s most fascinating about this particular poll is that it’s not a poll of voters.
Rather, it’s a poll of 2,175 U.S. adults. The GOP tends to poll better with tighter screening for registered voters and likely voters.
_________________________________________________________
YOU are so right about CBS - they didn’t even poll ‘likely voters’ they went for all the democrats who never vote - - to keep the numbers lower.
If we wen to war with Hamas in Gaza - how long would it take until the war was over and the 'Palestinian' refugees "escape' to Jordon and the hellhole they created was closed down? I'm guessing less than a week.
Under current Jordanian rhetoric, they’s shoot them as they attempted to force crossing the border. However, they are more likely to try to press into Egypt via shared border (have to cross Israel to get to Jordan).
Globalism / Great Reset –
“Blade runners” got it done
England is on the verge of shutting down the World Economic Forum’s “15 Minute Cities” programme after almost all the cameras were destroyed and 50,000 people refused to pay the fines. Cameras cannot be protected if the police refuse to take action. The courts are not in a position to convict so many people.
All city cameras have been destroyed. Cheers to the Blade Runners: this activist group has neutralised 90% of the cameras installed under a zero-emission scheme that penalises vehicles that fail to meet standards.
OBSERVATION - Fight against London’s elite that has been going on for at least a year.
The 15 minute city concept is almost a prototype of a prison of sorts to deny citizens freedom of movement outside of a “15 minute” radius of their homes. In addition to these now destroyed cameras, towns have installed bollards in city streets to prevent further vehicular movements between sectors.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
“US Americans in the city of Lincoln Heights in Ohio, created a well regulated militia to protect their community from the emerging threat of MAGA Nazis and white supremacists currently emboldened by the Trump regime and oligarch Musk. “
https://x.com/youranoncentral/status/1888937887225491936?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Original post from a leftist. Images of predominantly blacks manning ‘checkpoints’ in Lincoln Heights at link. Some armed with AR-15 style rifles.
Formation of armed militia groups acting is a quasi-official manner is a major step towards a CW2 scenario.
***
There are more unconfirmed reports out there that generals in the Pentagon are continuing to conspire and devise ways to circumvent orders and directives from the new Sec Def and Trump.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
In the background, gold is within striking distance of breaking $3000 / oz for the first time in history. This after breaking $2000/oz in 2023
POLITICAL FRONT –
(The National Pulse)—The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) says it will fire the individual—or individuals—responsible for paying $59 million to New York City for illegal immigrant housing in contravention of an executive order issued by President Donald J. Trump. According to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which revealed the illegal payments on Monday, one of the hotels receiving the FEMA money is the Roosevelt Hotel, which the Pakistani government owns through the state-run Pakistani Airlines.
“Individuals who circumvented leadership and unilaterally made this payment will be fired and held accountable,” DHS spokesman Tricia McLaughlin said, responding to the revelations posted on X (formerly Twitter) by DOGE chief Elon Musk.
OBSERVATION - The individual reportedly has been identified.
***
Rogue judges add more preliminary ‘rulings’ trying to tie the hands of the Trump administration. Move is growing for an emergency ruling by the USSC to snuff these ‘rulings’ out before they bog everything down. USSC has to make the choice of intervening on these illegal and unconstitutional ‘rulings’ now or face an onslaught of lawsuits later.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
Tariff fights beginning but other countries are in worse conditions to do so because of reliance on US trade and their own internal economic weaknesses.
North/South Korea –
North Korea threatens citizens with punishment for spreading rumors about troops killed in Ukraine – Newsweek.
Over 11,000 soldiers were sent to Russia. As casualties rise, authorities order citizens to report “rumor spreaders” or face consequences.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
RUMINT-
Steve Witkoff’s jet unexpectedly landed in Moscow—he is an unofficial envoy to the Middle East and a close aid to Trump. The Gulfstream G650ER arrived from Washington, but the purpose of the visit remains undisclosed.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the teens - 20 range. Mostly fair
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force reports on a missile and Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 124 Shaheds launched, 57 were shot down and another 64 (simulators/dummy’s) were suppressed by electronic warfare.
Results of air defense operating against cruise- and ballistic missiles is still being clarified.
Russia launched up to 19 missiles at the Poltava region last night, according to the Air Force. The number of intercepted missiles is still being clarified. The strikes targeted gas extraction facilities.
Russian losses per 11/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1390 men
+13 tanks
+31 AFVs
+44 artillery systems
+2 MLRS
+1 AD system
+169 service vehicles
The Russian Defense Ministry says that air defense forces shot down 40 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. 18 drones were destroyed over the Saratov Region, 13 over the Rostov Region, six over the Bryansk Region, as well as two over the Volgograd Region and one over the Belgorod Region.
Ukrainian UAVs massively attacked Saratov Oil Refinery & Engels airbase. Due to the threat, a “Carpet” plan was activated in Kazan, Kirov, Saratov & Ulyanovsk. Engels hosts bombers striking Ukraine, and the refinery processes 7M tons of oil yearly—both were reportedly hit. note that this place has being hit 3 times in Jan
Ukrainian forces (SBS, GUR, SSO) struck the Saratov oil refinery overnight on Feb 11 – General Staff confirms. The refinery produces over 20 types of fuel, including diesel and gasoline, supplying the Russian army. Confirmed hits caused a fire at the facility.
Russian missile attack continued through the night targeted oil & gas infrastructure in Poltava region. Russia is attempting to deprive Ukrainian population sources of household gas
Ukrainian electrical power operator imposed emergency blackout to prevent damage to the grid
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
The Ukraine military has reached the western outskirts of the village of Pishchane south of Pokrovsk based on new footage. A MaxxPro reached the western most outskirts before bogging down. It is likely there are no Russian troops in this village anymore after Ukraine counterattacks in recent days.
Summary —
Russia augmented their daily Shahed raids with air launched cruise missiles in an effort to target natural gas and power grids. Estimated 19-20 cruise missiles is still a low number compared to past attacks, suggesting limited supplies or attempting to save for even bigger events.
Ukraine hit the Saratov oil refinery for the fourth time this year, reportedly damaging the main cracking unit. The importance of this refinery to the Russian war effort is significant and will force Russia to ship in via rail fuels from other refineries farther away.
Fighting heavy but still showing signs of Ukraine pushing back worn out Russian forces. The past couple weeks have shown the most retracing of territory (other than Kursk) in quite a while.
Weather this winter has been relatively mild and conducive to continued offensive operations, and Russia has pressed its attacks in an effort to take advantage of it. However, Russian forces have become depleted and have seen less territorial advances this year so far than similar period last year, when they had larger reserves and more equipment.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Gaza cease fire on verge of collapse due to Hamas refusal to release next group of hostages.
- Trump makes dramatic announcement: If the ALL hostages are not released by Saturday at 12 noon, the ceasefire will be canceled and all hell will break loose.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas announces it is “delaying” the hostage release set for Saturday, February 15, due to alleged Israeli violations
A Hamas senior official later claimed Hamas is not abandoning the ceasefire agreement, it is only postponing implementation, reports @SuleimanMas1.
Ben Gvir didn’t hold back in response to Hamxs’ announcement:
“Hamxs’ announcement demands one response—an overwhelming fire assault on Gaza by air and land, a total halt to all humanitarian aid, including electricity, fuel, and water, and even targeting aid already seized by Hamxs. It’s time to return to war and eliminate the threat once and for all.”
Israeli Minister of Defense, Israel Katz states that today’s announcement by Hamas, that they will not following through with Saturday’s hostage exchange, is a “complete violation of the ceasefire agreement and the deal to release the hostages.” With him further stating, “I have instructed the IDF to prepare at the highest-level of alert for any possible scenario in Gaza and to protect the communities.”
The security cabinet is now convening at the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem to discuss Israel’s response to Hamas’s postponement of the release of hostages, officials say. Before the meeting, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held an assessment with security officials on the matter
Trump says that if all hostages in Gaza are not released by 12pm on Saturday, the ceasefire should be canceled and “let all hell break loose”
NOTE - Context of the statement ALL means ALL, all hostages, not just the three scheduled for release.
A senior Hamas official says that Trump “must remember there is an agreement that must be respected by both parties, this is the only way to bring back prisoners”, adding that the language of “threats” has no value and only “complicates matters”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
The Israeli army has cancelled leave for soldiers in the Gaza Division in light of the announcement and is preparing for the possibility that the fighting will renew
The Southern Command in the Israeli army raises its readiness amid the possibility that the ceasefire agreement in Gaza will collapse
Leave has been cancelled for the Israel Defense Force’s 143rd “Gaza” Division, as they prepare to possibly resume Offensive Operations in the Gaza Strip, following today’s announcement by Hamas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israel PM Netanyahu asks Trump to postpone the withdrawal from Lebanon as the Lebanese army does not fully enforce the ceasefire agreement and amid fears of Hezbollah’s rebuilding near the border: channel 12
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Trump says he may withhold aid to Jordan, Egypt if they don’t accept refugees
Under threat of cut off buy Trump, Al Arabiya sources say Egypt has decided to take precautionary measures to deal with any possible suspension of US aid
***
UN Chief: “We must avoid at all costs resumption of hostilities in Gaza that would lead to immense tragedy.
I appeal to Hamas to proceed with the planned liberation of hostages.
Both sides must fully abide by their commitments in the ceasefire agreement & resume serious negotiations.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
SMH - Hamas tried to act tough, boy is it backfiring
Wow Hamas is testing reactions and/or trying to buy time to get remaining hostages into better shape before releasing them.
Or was Hamas trying play games now that IDF pulled out of most of Gaza and thousands of its heaviest terrorists have been already released?
Here’s some dots to connect
1 Hamas was in Tehran and met with Khamenei over the weekend.
2 The IDF pulled out of the Netzarim Axis on Sunday.
These events are not a coincidence as to why Hamas postponed the ceasefire agreement on Monday. It is part of their MO to renege on agreements when they see conditions favoring them. As Phase 1 ends, the propaganda play with the hostages may be seeing a quick ending as the physical condition of the surviving hostages may be seriously poor as the last three demonstrated. Now transfer that to the bodies of the dead hostages they are suppose to return - and the evidence of brutality that will be found on them.
Hamas thinks they have won a victory. As I warned yesterday, the brutality has caught the attention of Trump and it will not end well for them.
The so called ‘Israeli violations’ were due to Hamas delaying the freeing of the latest group of hostages. The other so called ‘violations’ are not receiving the support of the world as in the past, such as aid shipments, etc.
Hamas is headed to destruction by a vengeful Israel and a US president who is willing to let Israel wipe them off the map. The wildly published videos of the hostage release ceremonies has given Israel / Mossad some wonderful targeting data and rearmed with 2000 lb penetrating bombs Israel will be far less concerned about warning civilians out of the way, as the videos also show these ‘civilians’ committing war crimes against the hostages as well.
Besides letting Israel finish the job, it is uncertain what actions the US may take as “hell” is unleashed. It would take serious integration of our assets with Israeli targeting and control. The Truman (CVN-75) is at Souda Bay, Greece, and could quickly be in the eastern Med in short order, along with other USAF assets in the region and the long reach of US strategic bombers.
Clock is ticking - and will Hamas fold or let the noon Saturday pass. It does so at its own risk.
Meanwhile, Israel is calling for an extension to the end date in S Lebanon citing failure of the Lebanese army to adequately secure S Lebanese areas and remove Hezbollah threats.
Iran –
Iran has filed a formal complaint with the UN Security Council, accusing U.S. President Trump of violating international law and the UN Charter after he suggested Tehran must choose between a military strike or a new deal.
Trump: “Iran can’t have nukes. There’s two ways to stopping them: With bombs or a written piece of paper.
Syria -
Syrian authorities not allowing Russian military column with missiles from Hmeimim airbase to enter Tartus naval base
JORDAN -
Donald Trump is expected to face fierce resistance from Jordan’s King Abdullah at the White House today, in their first meeting since the US president proposed moving Gaza’s population to Jordan.
Jordan, a key US ally, has been treading a tightrope between its military and diplomatic ties, and popular support for the Palestinians at home.
Those fault lines, already tested by the Gaza War, are being pushed to breaking point by Trump’s plans for Gaza’s peace.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c360dkgjrkwo
Mexico -
The U.S. has increased surveillance of Mexican drug cartels along the U.S.-Mexico border, with spy planes flying at least 18 missions over a ten-day period. Before January, the Pentagon flew an average of one border surveillance mission per month.
https://x.com/earlywarningnet/status/1889036613830709514?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg
https://x.com/youranoncentral/status/1888937887225491936?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Original post from a leftist. Images of predominantly blacks manning ‘checkpoints’ in Lincoln Heights at link. Some armed with AR-15 style rifles.
Formation of armed militia groups acting is a quasi-official manner is a major step towards a CW2 scenario.
***
There are more unconfirmed reports out there that generals in the Pentagon are continuing to conspire and devise ways to circumvent orders and directives from the new Sec Def and Trump.
That’s the danger.
Can Trump knee cap them in time to stop the last moves - an out and out civil war? Or will the country behind this horror attack? If it is a country behind this ‘destroy the United States from within’ stuff?
Who are the enemies and who are the good guys? Do you have insights into this Godzilla? Is the CIA working with the Chinese or Cartels? The global elites seem a mild front organization/group compared to whoever is running the thing.
Trump’s shaking the tree - we’ll see what falls out.
1 Hamas was in Tehran and met with Khamenei over the weekend.
2 The IDF pulled out of the Netzarim Axis on Sunday.
These events are not a coincidence as to why Hamas postponed the ceasefire agreement on Monday. It is part of their MO to renege on agreements when they see conditions favoring them. As Phase 1 ends, the propaganda play with the hostages may be seeing a quick ending as the physical condition of the surviving hostages may be seriously poor as the last three demonstrated. Now transfer that to the bodies of the dead hostages they are suppose to return - and the evidence of brutality that will be found on them.
Hamas thinks they have won a victory. As I warned yesterday, the brutality has caught the attention of Trump and it will not end well for them.
Will Hamas fold? Are the people working to take down the United States working with Hamas? College/WOKE demonstrations hint they might be...
Good v bad. My perception has changed so much over the past years the bad have gone to ground with trump and the good coming back out of their holes.
Unless actual shooting starts it will be hard to discern.
I doubt Hamas will back down. Remember, appearance of strength is everything in that culture and they’ve been convinced they are winning. Latest is Netanyahu cabinet has endorsed Trumps ALL warning. 1201 local and no hostages released will see bombs falling again.
Iran wants Israel distracted
Thanks
Good point. On the lighter brighter side, we outnumber them as shown by the cheering for Trump at the Super Bowl. The evil ones thought Trump might be boo'd - that was delusional. Out of touch with reality has weakened them (and points to a possible foreign influence) but as you say we won't know until the shooting starts... or doesn't start.
On a foray over to DU recently, I saw them call for that exact thing, formation of leftist militias.
I guess militias = bad is only when the right does it.
Hypocrites.
NOT a good sign...
That sounds like insubordination to me.
A court martial offense, IIRC.
Doing some remote monitoring of Reddit channels that is as bad if not worse than du.
Second morning of sub -20 degree temps - brrrr
All hell is pending to be broken loose on Gaza this weekend.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Activists groups are targeting Tesla and the Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) next week. A “Tesla Takeover” protest against Elon Musk is scheduled for Tesla dealerships across the country on Saturday, 15 February, while a “Crash CPAC” protest is scheduled for 19-22 February at the CPAC Convention in National Harbor, Maryland, just outside D.C.
OBSERVATION - So far these types of protests have been tame in comparison to 2017 and 2020. The Tesla protests harbor probabilities for a lot of vandalism of vehicles. CPAC protestors will try to intimidate but likely lack numbers.
***
Congressional democrats are continuing to try to stir up the crowds into violent protests with incendiary speeches and actions.
Social media platforms like Reddit have the left screaming for war and assassinations of Trump and DOGE. Reddit concerns me due to the mental instability of the participants and potential for some nut job trying to shoot the place up.
POLITICAL FRONT –
FEMA’s Chief Financial Officer Mary Comans was fired for illegally funding migrant luxury hotels in NYC against the orders of President Trump.
Comans is arguably most powerful person at FEMA, controlling billions in funding.
“Effective immediately, FEMA is terminating the employment of four individuals for circumventing leadership to unilaterally make egregious payments for luxury NYC hotels for migrants. Firings include FEMA’s Chief Financial Officer, two program analysts and a grant specialist.
OBSERVATION - Waiting for the arrests to come out of this gross breach of law. There are plenty other swamp dwellers willing to go above board to oppose Trump.
IN RELATED, another activist judge has ordered Trump to restore pro-LGBTQ and Transitioning web pages to agency websites. IMHO, these activist judges attempts to thwart the agenda may soon be hit hard, even though Trump continues to roll right thru them.
China –
Two U.S. Naval Vessels, the Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyer, USS Ralph Johnson (DDG-114) as well as the Pathfinder-Class Survey Ship, USNS Bowditch (T-AGS-62) passed through the Taiwan Strait earlier today between Mainland China and the Island of Taiwan
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
Now we know the reason for yesterday’s mystery flight
Marc Fogel, an American teacher detained in Russia, has been released, the White House announced Tuesday.
Steve Witkoff, a special envoy for President Donald Trump, left Russian airspace with Fogel, a history teacher from Pennsylvania, and he’s expected to be reunited with his family by the end of the day.
Fogel was arrested in August 2021, and he was serving a 14-year prison system. His family and supporters said he was traveling with medically prescribed marijuana.
Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security adviser, said the U.S. and Russia “negotiated an exchange” to ensure Fogel’s release. He did not say what the U.S. side of the bargain entailed. Previous negotiations have occasionally involved reciprocal releases of Russians by the U.S. or its allies.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia reports that it is recruiting 30,000 troops a month. At the same time Russia is hiring North Korean mercenaries to fight in Ukraine. Russian government officials admitted that their forces had suffered nearly half a million casualties in 2024. There were similar losses in 2023 and 2022.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/202502120121.aspx#gsc.tab=0
NOTE - 30K per month may be an old number. It only covers replacements of about 1000 casualties per day. Over the past few months until very recent, casualties were in the 1700 - 2000 / day range, indicating that recruitment would have to be in the range of 45K or more to sustain combat forces in the region.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the teens - 20 range. Mostly fair
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force reported on a combined missile and drone attack at night.
Shot down:
111/123 Shahed drones (71 shot down, 40 suppressed by electronic warfare)
6/6 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles
Some unreported ballistic missiles hit Kryvyi Rih.
Russian losses per 12/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1150 men
+9 tanks
+27 AFVs
+53 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
+121 service vehicles
Summary —
The sudden drop off in Russian casualties over the past couple of weeks continues to suggest that Russia forces are too wore down to sustain high tempo of assaults against Ukraine positions. Russian capture of Ukraine territory rates have dropped significantly the past few weeks as well, with greater numbers of Ukraine attacks recapturing some of those lost areas. As noted under “Russia” above, recruitment has fallen behind the casualty curve in a big way, which if combined with rumors that Russian troops are worn out, suggests the offensive is starting to fade.
Still wondering about the Russian ‘deep war’ strategy and the almost total reliance on Shahed drones over other cruise/ballistic missiles.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel mobilizes Reserver forces into the areas surrounding Gaza.
- Netanyahu warns that ALL hostages need to be released by noon Saturday or all bets are off.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Netanyahu says Hamas needs to release ALL of the hostages by Saturday, if not Israel will resume fighting in Gaza
Israeli cabinet member, Minister Eli Cohen:
The cabinet adopted President Trump’s position - “Return all the abductees on Saturday, or hell will break out in Gaza.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu:
“I have just concluded an in-depth four-hour discussion in the political-security cabinet.
We all expressed outrage at the shocking situation of our three hostages who were released last Saturday.
We all also welcomed President Trump’s demand for the release of our hostages by Saturday noon, and we all also welcomed the president’s revolutionary vision for the future of Gaza.
In light of Hamas’ announcement of its decision to violate the agreement and not release our hostages, last night I ordered the IDF to amass forces inside and around the Gaza Strip.
This operation is being carried out at this time. It will be completed in the very near future.
The decision that I passed unanimously in the cabinet is this:
If Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon - the ceasefire will end, and the IDF will return to intense fighting *until Hamas is finally defeated.”*
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Hamas political and military leaders have been instructed to once again stop using mobile phones and hide themselves in light of the potential collapse of the ceasefire in Gaza,
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi leader: “Our hands are on the trigger and we are ready to immediately escalate against the Israeli enemy if it returns to escalate against the Gaza Strip.”
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Russian Foreign Minister: The Palestinian issue can only be resolved through the establishment of an independent Palestinian state
Jordanian Foreign Minister: Comprehensive peace will not be achieved without implementing the two-state solution
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
A good summary of the damage control Hamas has been trying to spin up following yesterday’s FA escapade -
“(ISW). Hamas is trying to set informational conditions to be able to blame Israel for a potential breakdown of the ceasefire. Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan said on February 10 that Hamas’ decision to postpone the release of hostages is a “warning” to Israel. Hamdan claimed that Hamas will comply with its ceasefire obligations so long as Israel fulfills its obligations. This statement seeks to preemptively blame any breakdown in the ceasefire on an alleged Israeli failure to fulfill its ceasefire obligations. Hamas has, however, itself violated the ceasefire agreement by postponing the release of Israeli hostages.”
I.E. Hamas is trying to paint itself as the victim of Israeli aggression.
Hama’s problem is that no one really believes them this time around. Netanyahu and the Israeli army are moving fast onto preparations for even a bigger push into Gaza - likely into territories forbidden by biden. In spite of all the gaza/hamas bravado - this next round of combat will be even more devastating for Hamas as Trump seems willing to let them go for the jugular this time.
In welcoming Fogel back from Russia, Trump noted he looked far better than other prisoners/hostages released a few days ago - a reference to the three most recently released Israelis. Clear note that Trump’s revulsion toward how Hamas has treated the hostages is still fore front in his mind.
As to the tactics Israel may use in Gaza war 2.0, my guess would be that they would first sweep back into areas they previously held - shouldn’t face any significant resistance and then pivot into previously ‘off limits’ areas (off limits by biden dictate). Attempts to secure any remaining hostages will still be foremost, but I suspect it will be very brutal towards the ‘civilians’ of Gaza. Their participation in capturing and terrorizing the hostages was displayed for the world to see the past month.
Hamas will face Israel with virtually no support from Hezbollah or Iran. Hezbollah no longer has the massive rocket reserves and is tied up in part in fighting Syrians in the north. If Iran does anything foolish it faces potential severe backlash from both Israel and the US this time around. Houthi’s may be set for some serious pounding by the US this time around as well.
AFA the Gazan ‘refugees’, Trump’s initiative has put the arab world back on their heels. The retention of the Gaza arabs has been a leverage point for the calls for a two state solution - and are being raised again. Any removal or allowance of Gazans to exit the strip for other arab countries is still being aggressively opposed. Yesterday’s meeting between Trump and Jordan’s King Abdullah created some cracks in that unified, arab front. One way or another, arab nations will have to deal with Gazan refugees.
Clock is ticking - Saturday High Noon Israel time. Hama’s bluff is being called.
Iran –
Unannounced power cuts in Tehran overnight being met by anti Iran regime chants by the Iranian people.
Electricity was cut off in several Tehran neighborhoods including Narmak, Tehranpars, Pasdaran, Shahrak-e Gharb, and the capital’s central districts due to the state’s “inability to supply gas and diesel for power plants,” Iranian media reported.
OBSERVATION - Devotion of funds towards the military and support of terrorist operations has sucked funds necessary for infrastructure maintenance and expansion. A major oil producing nation unable to supply gas and diesel for power plants is not lost to the Iranian citizenry. And when they see the propaganda of all the new military toys and facilities - while massive inflations hits and they are sitting in the dark, the scenario for more civil unrest grows.
Lebanon -
Situation is beginning to stabilize on the country’s northern border with Syria.
Egypt –
Al-Arabiya Channel Report: Egyptian President al-Sisi’s visit to Washington has been postponed until further notice. Egypt will not allocate a plot of land for Gaza residents to live on, closing the door to this proposal. It has insisted on not expelling Gaza residents and settling them elsewhere. Cairo is furious about statements by Israel and the US and has sent a clear message to Washington, and has also demanded clarification from the US regarding Trump’s statements regarding the imposition of sanctions.
According to the report, Egypt has two plans for the reconstruction of Gaza without uprooting the Gazans. It is claimed that it has submitted more than one response regarding Trump’s plan for Gaza in recent days and has refused three proposals that included uprooting.
OBSERVATION - Egyptian president cancelled his meeting with Trump over the Gaza issue. Trump has Egypt and Jordan over a barrel with the substantial amount of aid the US supplies annually. But then Trump’s gambit is doing exactly what he wanted to do - totally upset the status quo and force the arab world to take Gazans in and forget about a two state solution - Hamas demonstrated beyond all shadow of a doubt such a solution will never bring peace.
JORDAN -
Jordan’s King Abdullah II said on Tuesday that he reaffirmed his country’s firm stance against the displacement of Palestinian Arabs in Gaza and Judea and Samaria during a meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House.
In a post on X, the Jordanian monarch described the discussion with Trump as “constructive” and highlighted the strong and enduring partnership between Jordan and the United States.
“I reiterated Jordan’s steadfast position against the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. This is the unified Arab position. Rebuilding Gaza without displacing the Palestinians and addressing the dire humanitarian situation should be the priority for all,” he wrote.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/403781
In his press conference with Trump, International media highlighted that while Abdullah, seated beside Trump, did not directly reject the president’s ideas, his discomfort was visibly evident.
CNN reported that while Abdullah, seated beside Trump, did not directly reject the president’s idea, his discomfort was evident. He hinted that alternative proposals for Gaza would soon be introduced.
“This is not a complex thing to accomplish,” Trump told Abdullah in the Oval Office. “And with the United States controlling that piece of land—a rather large piece of land—you will have stability in the Middle East for the first time.”
Abdullah responded cautiously, emphasizing regional considerations. “I think we have to remember, there is a plan from Egypt and the Arab states,” he said. “I think the point is, how do we make this work in a way that is good for everyone?” Later, he added, “Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.”
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-841801
Jordanian King Abdullah: Ready to absorb Palestinians from Gaza, “we will examine how to implement this, in coordination with the Egyptians.”
OBSERVATION - Similar to Egypt, Trump has a lot of leverage. Perhaps Trump also pulled the curtain back a little in regards to the particular ‘hell’ that is coming towards Hamas and the Gaza. Israel did a considerably massive job dismantling Hamas with the anchors biden attached to them. This round, Israel will have the full, unfettered support of the US. Visions of what Israel could do in that scenario may have woke him up to the bigger picture.
Africa general –
South Africa - Genocidal ‘land reform’ efforts to take farm land from the white farmers and turn it over to govt lackies, killing any whites that get in the way, has drawn Trump’s ire and he has imposed economic sanctions as well as welcoming any displaced farmers to the US.
South Africa has been staggering towards a Zimbabwe societal crash where inept individuals stole the farming and other infrastructure systems from whites and upended the nation. Since the end of apartheid, the ruling black majority has failed to maintain the basic infrastructure degenerated (due to grift and waste of funding) and now want starvation to be next on the hit parade.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.