Posted on 09/01/2024 7:58:34 AM PDT by House Atreides
Operational analysis of Russia's offensive towards Pokrovsk. The entire Southern Donbas Front is at risk of falling into enemy hands. Urgent Ukrainian reinforcements are needed.
He will save the day!
Hilarious graphic. Well done!
kiryandil: "Yes, we're getting the "Russian hume-ing wave" spiel from semi-literate perfessors of history in Scotland now."
"Meat Wave Assaults", or similar, is the term used by both Ukrainians and Russians for the modern Russian analogy to the old Chinese Korean War era (and other) "Human Wave Attacks".
Japanese infantry charge in the Russo-Japanese War, circa 1905:
Your words well describe the US Revolutionary War, from 1775 to 1781, which would have ended in defeat at Valley Forge in 1778 without increasingly massive aid -- money, weapons, foreign navy, troops & diversion attacks -- from major powers like France, Spain and the Netherlands.
Our side never knew when, or how much, aid would arrive so all we could do was hang in there, keep fighting and trusting in "Providence" that enough help would arrive soon enough to make a difference.
And in the end, it did, miraculously.
Of course, even in 1783 the Revolutionary War was not fully won or over -- that took another 30+ years, until the Treaty of Ghent after the War of 1812.
So, there's no doubt that it can be very tough for a weaker military to win its war of independence against a supposed global superpower.
But it can be done.
Our ancestors did it, with a lot of help, and so, with Providence, Ukraine may also succeed.
1781 Battle of the Chesapeake,
French navy victory was key to US/French victory at Yorktown:
1814 John Quincy Adams signs the Treaty of Ghent,
ended 40 years of hostilities between the US and GB/UK:
Thanks Rocco!
We love to serve.
By my count, here, Ukrainians have 14 brigades in or around Pokrovsk.
That equates to theoretically circa 50,000 troops in total.
Some estimates put Ukraine's Pokrovsk strength at only 12,000 which may refer to numbers in the front line trenches, not including reserve and support troops.
Estimates of Russian troops near Pokrovsk are circa 30,000, though again, no suggestions if that's just front line or also reserve and support troops.
In six months since the fall of Avdiivka, Russians advanced 20 miles, or roughly one mile per week, and are currently within about five miles of Pokrovsk, meaning within artillery range.
Artillery range means the logistical roads into and out of Pokrovsk are already under Russian fire and so much less reliable that previously.
Contrary to Russian propaganda, Ukrainians have sent reinforcements to Pokrovsk, notably its Kara-Dag Brigade:
"The Kara-Dag Brigade is a southern brigade.When I look at the map near Pokrovsk, I see a Russian salient, which any decent military commander would be eager to choke the life out of.
It fought north of the southern city of Melitopol in the early days of the wider war and pretty much stayed in the same area for two years.
But 'we guarantee combat clashes on the front line,' the national guard promises recruits on its website — and as the wider war grinds into third year, the heaviest fighting is in the east.But sending in the Kara-Dag Brigade hasn’t halted the Russian advance.
And some Russian observers are wondering where the rest of Ukraine’s reserves are.
Sure, many Ukrainian troops who weren’t already manning some trench somewhere have joined Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast.Even so, there should be a few uncommitted brigades somewhere in Ukraine right now, out of a total ground combat force of around 100 brigades.
'We know that the Ukrainian armed forces still have several reasonably intact and well-equipped units in reserve, about five brigades,' Russian propagandist Evgeny Norin wrote.Why isn’t Ukraine rushing those forces to Pokrovsk to save the city’s vital supply lines?
'It could mean two things,' Norin wrote.
'They plan to deploy them elsewhere, and they aim to achieve some kind of decisive impact before before the front in Donbas completely collapses.'That elsewhere might be Kursk, where the Ukrainian invasion has rolled into its fourth week—and shows no sign of stopping.
In adding forces to Kursk while withholding them from Pokrovsk, Ukraine’s leaders are gambling that the gains from their surprise invasion in the north matter more to the war’s outcome than their potential losses in the east.It’s an extremely risky gamble."
But that's just me, what do I know?
You know, it isn’t hard to assess the credibility of the History Legends kid. And, yes, I say kid because he’s very young. His youth and lack of military experience are used against him, but when one takes the time to watch and think about what he says - as I have been doing so for a year and a half now, I’m convinced that there’s no better analyst out there. His channel, as well as Defense Politics Asia, Weeb Union, Military Summary, and NWE War Reports are the only trustworthy sources of the reality at the line of combat. They simply report on what is happening and make forecasts. When the Ukrainian side wins a contest, they say so; when the Russians do, they say so as well without sugarcoating it.
If you bother to know anything about him, you’ll find out that he’s been studying military history since he was a child in Montreal due to his father’s influence and books and he ran a military history channel on Instagram since he was a teenager with close to a hundred thousand subscribers until Instagram shut the account down. In short, he’s a military tactics and strategy savant and knows more about minutia of hundreds of battles than the retired generals that are paid on the TV shows.
The funny thing is I was like you a few years ago - dismissive of anyone who does not follow the party line that Russians are evil, that they invaded without provocation, that Ukraine is fighting for their freedom. But the world is more nuanced than slogans. Just yesterday, I called my brother to apologize and admitted he was right about something I ridiculed as a conspiracy theory ten years ago.
So, take it for what it’s worth - take some time to watch History Legends and others about what is actually going on. You’ll see that our mainstream media has been lying to us.
2014 Neo-Nazis in Putin's home town, St. Petersburg, Russia:
OldHarbor: "Zman and his band of Nazis on the endangered species list."
By definition, the word "Nazi" refers to:
There is a part 2, which I've posted.
Are you equally concerned about the Stalinist roots of modern Russia?
I gave an English translation of the original Russian title to the link. You can read that, can you not?
It is not a porn site but a news article about prostitution in Armenia.
That the link appeared when you went to the site does not mean that it was there when UMCRevMom@aol.com did. It does not always appear.
I had originally given you the benefit of doubt that you were just guilty of rash judgment because of the nature of the thumbnail but since you continue to falsely characterize it as a porn site even after you have been corrected I can no longer do so. What you are doing is a deliberate act of libel. Doing so, and your continual personal attacks on UMCRevMom@aol.com, does not harm her reputation but only brings dishonor upon yourself. Address the issues; don't make personal attacks. These personal attacks only show that you cannot support your position rationally.<<<<
_______________________________________________
OK, if you cannot engage in rational discussion.
>>>>It appears as though you’ve angered the peddlers...<<<<
It’s not a challenge anymore. They know the end is near for their globohomo god, Zelensky, and his money laundering operation, so their fuses are short.
>>>>Don’t know why I love that meme so much. Can’t stop laughing with it 😄<<<<
She’s got good dance moves, doesn’t she?
I laugh every time I see it. It never gets old.
From all accounts, "History Legends" YouTube channel is run by Alexandre Robert, who says he is from Montreal, Canada.
Those who follow him seem to be rather evenly split between ones who say he's a pro-Russian shill and others who claim he's really pretty "fair, balanced and unafraid".
The case for "pro-Russian shill" comes from claims that he too often celebrates minor Russian victories while ignoring major Ukrainian wins.
The case for "fair and balanced" points to examples of the opposite.
There is even an interesting suggestion that Robert's ultimate loyalties are with Serbia, and this explains his pro-Russian biases.
There is no evidence to confirm or disprove that Alexandre Robert is the same man reported in this incident from 2007 in Dubai.
Jumper: "Now that Russia has not pnly matched but supassed Ukrainian drone superiority, this is proving to totally disrupt Ukrainian logistics and vehicle movement adding yet another deminsion to accelerating Uke losses."
Pokrovsk is roughly 25 miles west of Avdiivka, Donetsk, which Russians destroyed & conquered in February, 2024.
In the past six months Russians have advanced about 20 miles west, or roughly a mile per week, and are now about 5-miles east of Pokrovsk.
Five miles is within artillery range, which means Russians can already disrupt Ukrainian logistics moving through Pokrovsk, which makes Pokrovsk already far less of the central supply hub it once was.
So, Pokrovsk has now mostly evacuated civilians.
Russians still advancing only one mile per week, does not yet suggest "accelerating Uke losses".
Jumper: "Russia went fm Uke manpower siperiority to their own manpower supremency with 4/5-1 numbers.
Did anyone think that Russia would withhold 700,000 troops from Ukraine as they were trsined?
They project 590k in Dec 24, up from 420k or so in July."
In the meantime, Russian casualties have averaged well over 1,000 per day, according to Ukrainians and independent sources, meaning over 200,000 Russian casualties in 2024 alone, over 600,000 since February 2022.
Ukrainians report casualty ratios increased in 2024 from three Russians for every Ukrainian casualty to now six Russians for every Ukrainian.
Ukraine's total armed forces are now listed as 1,200,000 active duty, compared to Russia's 1,350,000 with 2,000,000 in reserves.
Both countries have millions more they could draw on in emergencies, but Russia's available numbers are circa three times larger than Ukraine's.
Jumper: "Russia has outwaited NATO and the west politically.
NATO built up Ukraine btw 2012-2022.
Russia has whittled away the vast treasure invested by the west.
Zelinski boosted his tanks wpuld be in Moscow in the Summer and fall of 2022."
All of that is 100% pure Russian propaganda nonsense, which no serious person would believe, much less repeat.
"Six people killed in Russian glide bomb attack in Kharkiv Russian forces used aerial guided,
Soviet-era bombs weighing more than 1,000 pounds in the bombardment,
according to Ukraine’s general prosecutor’s office." WaPo, August 31, 2024:
Jumper: "NATO had an excellent longterm plan.
Only the implementation of the Russian FAB broke the defensive lines.
Now the drones are absolutely becoming a strategic advantage, going from Ukraine adv to Russia in Aug 24."
"FAB" stands for "Fugasnaya AviaBomba", we call them Russian glide bombs (similar to US JADM-ERs), which have done considerable damage to Ukrainian fixed positions.
Ukrainians have used several different types of countermeasures to defeat Russian FAB glide bombs, but so far there are no statistics available to say how effective either side has been.
Jumper: "Never trust a democrat.
They have snatched defeat from the military victory 100% since ‘53.
Since Biden hosing VN he has made the wrong choice always.
Obamas purge of the US Military has resulted in accelareted decline in US military performance and now NATO led by AmeriKa is failing at the atrategic level yet again in Ukeland."
To me your words here sound very confused and disoriented, as if you'd been partaking of Russia's national drink.
So, my suggestion is: lay off that stuff for at least 24 hours before you sit down to post the next time, FRiend.
You were told a long time ago to not post to me. So you need to keep track of that.
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