Last summer the Ukes made a very similar type incursion towards Belgorod. Supposedly, there was some type nuclear material that could be had if their mad dash was fast enough. It wasn’t.
Although much larger, it’s the same operation. Who can’t handicap that boob Z’s moves? In the desperate situation the Ukes were in, the Russians figured they’d bait him into a trap with the Kursk Nuclear PP. The Russians probably also figured the PR opportunity would be a great lure as well. We all saw the insufferable western crowing and strutting. That’s was certainly something Z desperately wanted.
The area is as desolate, unpopulated and as undeveloped as any on the battle lines. It is heavily wooded, lots of streams and hills. It’s lousy for maneuver except for the one road in.
The Russians pulled troops back and let their defenses fall into disarray perhaps, the come hither facade. The Ukes took the bait. The Ukes came barreling down the one road with the very best equipment and troops they could peel off the Belarus front and Donbas lines as the Russians let the Ukes chase them.
Any hope of getting to the nuclear plant were gone three days in as the column bogged down and the Ukes started expanding their flanks out into the countryside until they reached the Russian forces edge of their pocket. Over the last week the forward movement of the Ukes stopped. The Russians are holding them there, killing them. The Russians aren’t interested in closing the pocket while Z continues to feed the slaughterhouse.
The armor that the Russians especially wanted to draw off has been mauled. The same thing will happen to the troops in the pocket when the Russians get around to collapsing it.
This is the best rope a dope action since the Rumble in the Jungle,
It sure did cost a lot of Russian planes and oil - was that part of the plan?
Trust the plan !
This bloodshed would be over if Ukraine would just give up its nuclear weapons stockpile and have Russia guarantee its security.
Oh, wait...
So if I get this right:
Ukraines military is “crumbling” “as we speak”
Ukraine is scrapping the bottom of the barrell: Old men and woman
Russia has 300K troops hanging around doing nothing.
The obvious: press your advantage with the 300K and wipe out the remaining crumbling military IN UKRAINE and end the war.
No, instead let the Ukraine come into your territory and destroy your infrastructure and towns, displacing your citizens to boot, and make you look impotent so you can spring a “trap”?????
Dont you think also it would have been better to destroy the concentrated UKE old men and women forces while they were on the UKE side of the border?
I
The best strategists in history have invaded Russia. It’s what you do when you want to go bold.
My impression, based on my lack of expertise, is that the Kursk offensive is the Ukraine equivalent of when Lee took his troops into the center of Pennsylvania in an attempt to make McClellan split his forces, and also as a psyops move to cause discouragement in the Union population and provoke a negotiated settlement allowing the Confederacy to continue. That ended poorly at Gettysburg, though without Custer and his Michiganers the result might well have been different.
(No, I’m not saying the Ukes are like the Confederates, good or bad; the backstory is very different, but military tactics are the same regardless of the backstory of a war.)
Still an open question, what is the objective of the Ukrainian incursion? One theory, that it was to draw Russian troops away from Donbas, seems moot since the Russian forces in Donbas have only accelerated their westward encroachment during the last month. The idea of capturing a nuclear plant and holding it hostage was never very plausible, and now seems off the table. Occupying ground to be traded off in a peace negotiation, assumes a degree of Russian agreeableness that defies events.
I am left with two possibilities. One is that the West pressured Ukraine into taking action to bolster its credibility for continuing financial aid, which has become increasingly pinched. Recall that the ill-fated “counteroffensive” last year was at the behest of the NATO governments, to “show us something.”
The other is that Ukraine government has shown signs of increasing internal instability, with generals and defense ministry disagreeing on strategy and in some cases apparently going their own way. . We now know that an insubordinate general took matters into his own hands and blew up the Nordstream pipeline against orders. The top general, General Syrskyi has been known for risking his troops in aggressive action. As commander in chief he may have devised and launched the Kursk operation on his own initiative, figuring no one will argue with success. Given the considerations described in the article however, it still could blow up in his face. We’ll see.
Good analysis. There are reports that Russia had intel on Ukrainian intensions as far as four weeks out, but the Duma was divided as well as the military. Luckily for Russia, those who didn’t act didn’t prevent the efforts of those who did act to prepare. Maybe this was part of the deception, to show a divided Russian Command and Control allowing NATO to make another mad dash.
Unintended consequences in the planning and execution also played a role in reaction by Russia. There are reports that in some of the small hamlets (100 towns) that the AFU advance units killed the civilian populations... maybe the families refused to surrender costing advance scout elements to waste precious time. When the AFU failed to follow up to the couple of hamlets and Russian’s reclaimed them the families bodies were paraded out for the press.
600 vehicles gone. 8,000 casualities. Two brigades lost combat effectiveness first 6 days. Three more brigades pushed into the mess. 11,000 trapped.
Capture the Kursk NPP, create a buffer, force Donbas redeployment of Russian troops to Kursk. - Ukraine’s PR War is claiming victory with headlines 30,000 Russian Troops diverted - Mission Accomplished.
Next time Zelinski wants to reposition 30,000 Russian troops, he shouldn’t murder 22,000 NATO trained soldiers in his five maneuver units that backfill frontlines to prevent breakthru’s....
Ukraine is experiencing a Red-wave and rolling thunder.
In before:
“Mercurious is Satan”
And not one of those men dying for Kiev has the right to vote before they die.
1. The statement "Kyiv regime" - a regime is an authoritarian regime. Kyiv's government is far from that
2. "is destroying its best forces" - this, along with "exhausting themselves" - may be the case, but we need to wait and see
3. Who exactly is this "Alexander Merkouris"? He is incorrectly put in the title as "Mercuris", then that is changed in the article, but more pertinently, there is zero information WHO is this Alexander M - and why exactly he is an "expert" and an "expert" at what exactly?
“The same thing will happen to the troops in the pocket when the Russians get around to collapsing it.”
We need to wait and see what actually does transpire.
Your allusion to “Last summer the Ukes made a very similar type incursion towards Belgorod.” is not correct as it was not “similar”.
On May 22, 2023 two Russian rebel groups advanced towards Belgorod - with about maximum 500 fighters and 4 armored vehicles.
The current Special Operation for liberation of Kursk is more in the range of 10,000 soldiers and 600 armored vehicles.
The size of the soldiers involved in the Special Military Operations for liberation of Kursk (SMOLK) is far larger and they are soldiers. They are also backed by logistics as well as air support.
This is not “similar” - but substantially different - 2023 was clearly raids with no logistics, while 2024’s SMOLK is not a raid.
But the MSM and Zelinsky told us that once the F-16’s showed up it was game over? What happened?
Ukaine would be much better off if it had never ended up in bed with the US. That Victoria Neuland color revolution has costs hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives.
They should have let the ethnic Russians in Ukraine keep their autonomy, and even let Russia establish a land bridge to Crimea.
Learn to get along. After all they are neighbors. A colossal fail for Ukraine, created by the never-ending desire of the neocons to eliminate Russia.