Posted on 08/20/2024 8:43:48 PM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
On Tuesday, August 6, the Russo-Ukrainian War took an unexpected twist with the beginning of a brigade-level Ukrainian assault on Kursk Oblast, across the border from Ukrainian Sumy. The decision by Ukrainian command to willingly open up a new front, at a time when their defenses on critical axes of the Donbas are failing, is both aggressive and fraught with peril. The sensational spectacle of a Ukrainian offensive into prewar Russia in a region that is operationally remote from the critical theater of the war has whipped the peanut gallery into a frenzy, and most commentators and observers seem to have fled straightaway to their base narrative instincts. Russian “doomers” have been quick to denounce the affair as a catastrophic failure of preparedness by the Russian Ministry of Defense, accelerationists have trumpeted the immateriality of Russian red lines, while the more disillusioned pro-Ukrainian commenters have despaired of the operation as a wasteful sideshow which dooms the Donbas line to defeat.
People form opinions very rapidly in the current information ecosystem, and the prospect of excitement often leads them to throw caution to the wind despite the orgy of misinformation and deception that surrounds such events. It is worth noting, however, that only two weeks have passed since the beginning of an operation that apparently nobody was expecting, and we should therefore be cautious of certainty and carefully distinguish between what we think and what we know. With that in mind, let’s take a careful survey of the Ukrainian operation as it stands and attempt to parse out both the strategic concept of the assault and its possible trajectories.
(Excerpt) Read more at bigserge.substack.com ...
But, unusually for him, I think he misses the real reason for the Kursk operation. It is not military (as he demonstrates, it makes no sense in military terms) but political. The goal is to show Ukraine can fight and win victories, and therefore deserves continuing support. Even as they continue to fall back in the Donbass facing much more serious losses than anything gained in this offensive.
How sad and pathetic is it that Ukraine must engage in such theater, in the hope of pleasing its western masters, and is on the clock to do so.
Trump being elected will change things radically, and even Harris being elected hardly means automatic support. One can imagine her woke advisors coming in will not want to be saddled with "Joe Biden's" failed war and want their own clean slate.
Very informative article. It is now all to obvious the Ukies have miscalculated again and succeeded , unknowingly, in turning the Donbass over to Vlad.
Just another repeat of the Ukies massive failed summer offensive. The losses ( as listed) are horrendous, for what? Anyone closely following this conflict knew it was an insane roll of the dice…..” the Last Ukrainian “ comes to mind- again.
"Kampfgruppe ShizzPantz"
In the Bloggers & Personal forum, on a thread titled Back to the Bloodlands: Operation Krepost [Big Serge on Kursk operation], EnderWiggin1970 wrote: As usual Serge does a great job of cutting to the meat of the matter and identifying key data often missed by the general news media. (His comments at the Ukrainian Kampfgruppe cobbled together for the Kursk offensive and what it implies about the state of the Ukrainian military being a good example.) But, unusually for him, I think he misses the real reason for the Kursk operation. It is not military (as he demonstrates, it makes no sense in military terms) but political. The goal is to show Ukraine can fight and win victories, and therefore deserves continuing support. Even as they continue to fall back in the Donbass facing much more serious losses than anything gained in this offensive.
I enjoyed reading the OP and your post.
My opinion about the goals of the operation has not yet stabilized.
I think your theory is part of the right answer. Mercouris or Christoforou had recently said, the Ukrainians are trying to hold out until November. I've been thinking, Biden has given the Ukraine 200 Billion dollars of taxper funds to conceal the extensive DNC crimes, and Biden family's own corruption there. The DNC pretends it's interested in 'freedom' while they work to strip American freedom's away. The DNC waves little blue and yellow flags in Congress because it looks so much nicer than admitting they will give Ukraine more than the US can afford in order to protect the toxic crime hub which helps many corrupt Democrats and the DNC (Republicans too) launder money, engage in treason, steal elections etc.
So this 'hold out until November' has me thinking that, while the DNC/Biden crime family et. al. want to conceal their crimes (election theft etc.), they dare not 'let' the Ukraine fall or surrender prior to Nov 5, no matter the Ukrainian losses and the hopelessness of their war efforts, because the public would realize they've been lied to about the state of affairs in Ukraine for quite some time, that their 200 billion taxpayer dollars were given to the Ukraine when the US knew it had no chance of winning. Biden recently promised to give the Ukraine more money. The DNC is trying to distance Kamala Harris by saying she doesn't favor the Ukraine (or was it Zelensky she said she didn't favor?). It won't be enough- the DNC/DeepState/Biden's handlers are thinking it may cost them the election if the truth of the Ukraine war is exposed.
So the Ukraine is forced to keep up the ruse - keep acting like they can fight. It's ghoulish, really. Zelensky sold his soul, and those of all who are now running out of vehicles, weapons, fuel in Kursk. The MSM helped.
But the Ukraine has information on Biden, too. It's a difficult dance - Biden forces Ukraine; Ukraine warns the west what might be exposed if allowed to fall.
The Deep State is desperate. I do think they are not above trying to damage parts of the reactor to force the Russians to remove troops from Ukraine. Nuclear blackmail because the Donbas can't hold, the Ukrainians were short of men and everything they need to fight BEFORE they sent 15,000 to Kursk with valuable air defense, armored vehicles, artillary etc. So I think this about getting the Deep State's Democratic puppets to the election without exposing the truth about the Ukraine, and once again, the upper tiers don't care what happens to those who actually fight and die in the false belief they're saving their country. What happens to Zelensky when Ukraine falls - all those men he betrayed with false promises of victory, and now they can't even come home from Kursk.
I would disagree slightly with your assessment, I think Harris getting elected makes things worse, she would be nothing but a rubber stamp for MIC, war is profitable for Raytheon and other companies replenishing US arms after shipping ours to Ukraine, we ship HIMARS rockets to Ukraine we purchased some time ago and replace them with rockets we purchase today at much higher prices
Electing Harris would escalate things as she tries to show force and is no pushover as a woman and she likely would undercut Israel and make all out war in Europe and the Middle East much more likely
“The sudden and unexpected eruption of combat in Kursk oblast has , of course raised comparisons to the 1943 Battle of Kursk ..”
Such complete idiocy defies comprehension.
They are taking Russian territory. I don’t know what planet the FRussians are on. They can’t even be subtle with their propoganda.
Of that we agree, as for the rest I am still on the fence
The Russians have still not reached the main defenses set up in the Donbas. Every meter they take results in large loses and longer logistics which are the fragile link as far as I can see.
I think the Ukranians made the calculation that a simple war of attrition is not favorable to them so they are going for a political solution
Putin is a strongman, and as such his existence relies on that image being maintained. The dips in his popularity during this war coincided with the mobilization, Kharkiv and Kherson “ goodwill gestures “
The invasion of Russia proper could cause the Russians to rally around Putin, but it could also cause people to question his “strongman” image.
One of the issues with the Afghan war was when conscripts were sent to Afghanistan, and now families of conscripts are seeing the effects of this war now
Yes it has only been two weeks, but it has been years and what has Putin to show for the Russian sacrifice. Literally less land than they originally held, massive loses, and an economy on a war time footing.
For a “SMO” that was supposed to be over in weeks or months no matter how you think about it, it is not a good look
“It is not military (as he demonstrates, it makes no sense in military terms) but political. “
Initially, I felt this was a spoiling attack. One designed to humiliate the Kremlin and force them to move assets to deal with it. Now, I can see another possibility, a strategic one, if played right. The Russian propaganda could actually be used against Russia here, as they could continue to ignore the advances. Secondarily, it could be a way to force Russia to commit more resources in the short term. This could have strategic advantages if Russia is burning out economically or from demand exceeding supply. Clearly, it exposes Russian supply lines in the north to a longer period of attack by Ukrainian drones.
We shall see.
I may appreciate your view even if so very wrong.
“... the Ukrainians made the calculation that a simple war of attrition is not favorable to them ..”
Have You Lost Your Ever Fkn MIND ?!
Simply stating I am wrong and have lost my … mind is not a valid response, how am I wrong?
It can be explained to you, but of course not understood by you.
Of course,
Declare me wrong, based on nothing and declare that I wouldn’t understand even if you did. Stronk response
Reminds of folks who make claims, and when I ask for the source of their claim they shout back “I am not your researcher”
Assuming you are married, try that on your spouse should work well. I also suggest your tell them to “calm down”😎
truth, you finally got it, good on you
This is starting to feel a little like the “flame wars” my great, great granddad told me about!
lol, is it too much to ask that someone backs up their claim(and btw I was just proposing a scenario) with something more than “you’re wrong”
Did you bother to read the article? The author explained very clearly - they've taken territory, which is just farms and small villages, with no other strategic objectives anywhere nearby. Its 200 KM from any other front, only connected by a few country roads. Ukraine now need to support this brand new front with fuel, ammo, food, etc... along vast distances where the skies are controlled by Russia. And they did this by stripping units fighting Russia on the main front in Donbas.
You should be grateful - Ukraine did this stupid propaganda exercise to give you something to post about.
Ukraine wins territory: the Russians are winning! Ukraine has no chance!
It's an unfalsifiable proposition. No matter what happens, FRusssians don't change their beliefs. It has gone beyond logical analysis, beyond religion with them. They can't change their beliefs or their whole worldview is destroyed.
You can always try prayer.
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