Of that we agree, as for the rest I am still on the fence
The Russians have still not reached the main defenses set up in the Donbas. Every meter they take results in large loses and longer logistics which are the fragile link as far as I can see.
I think the Ukranians made the calculation that a simple war of attrition is not favorable to them so they are going for a political solution
Putin is a strongman, and as such his existence relies on that image being maintained. The dips in his popularity during this war coincided with the mobilization, Kharkiv and Kherson “ goodwill gestures “
The invasion of Russia proper could cause the Russians to rally around Putin, but it could also cause people to question his “strongman” image.
One of the issues with the Afghan war was when conscripts were sent to Afghanistan, and now families of conscripts are seeing the effects of this war now
Yes it has only been two weeks, but it has been years and what has Putin to show for the Russian sacrifice. Literally less land than they originally held, massive loses, and an economy on a war time footing.
For a “SMO” that was supposed to be over in weeks or months no matter how you think about it, it is not a good look
I may appreciate your view even if so very wrong.
“... the Ukrainians made the calculation that a simple war of attrition is not favorable to them ..”
Have You Lost Your Ever Fkn MIND ?!