Posted on 07/07/2024 6:20:28 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
A coalition of left-wing parties pulled off a stunning upset in the final round of France's parliamentary elections, relegating the right-wing National Rally to third place and seemingly guaranteeing paralysis in the French government.
In the first round of voting last Sunday, Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) won 34 percent. The leftist New Popular Front (NFP) — a coalition of five parties that range from lunatic leftists and environmentalists to run-of-the-mill socialists — took 28 percent of the vote. French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance was essentially repudiated by the voters gathering only 20 percent.
The election wasn't due for another two years, but Macron, for some reason, thought he could gain a political advantage by calling a snap election (see France's Macron Dissolves National Assembly, Calls for Snap Elections After Crushing EU Election Defeat – RedState).
French elections run in two phases. The first phase eliminates tiny fringe parties by requiring the votes of 12.5 percent of locally registered voters to move to Round Two. However, if a candidate gets over 50 percent of the vote and there is a 25 percent turnout, that candidate wins outright. This was the round of voting that Le Pen's party won.
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The second round is a runoff in which the top vote-getter wins.
Le Pen's showing in the first round resulted in Macron's party and the leftists entering into an agreement requiring the weaker candidates of either party to withdraw so they would not split the non-RN vote.
There are 577 seats in the National Assembly, including 13 overseas districts and 11 constituencies representing French citizens abroad. For an absolute majority, a party needs 289. The leftist coalition is projected to win between 171 and 187 seats, making it the largest party but without a majority. Macron's party moved to second place and will take between 152 and 163 seats. RN will hold from 134 to 152 seats.
The outcome will not be pretty.
As it stands, none of the three major blocs appears able to work with the others. Each could try to cobble together a working majority with the smattering of smaller parties or independent lawmakers that will take up the rest of the lower house’s seats. But their ability to do so is uncertain.
“French political culture is not conducive to compromise,” said Samy Benzina, a public law professor at the University of Poitiers, noting that France’s institutions are normally designed to produce “clear majorities that can govern on their own.”
A scenario in which no party successfully secures an absolute majority — at least 289 of the lower house’s 577 seats — is not unprecedented in France. That is exactly what happened during the last legislative elections, in 2022. Mr. Macron still managed to put together functioning governments that have successfully passed bills over the past two years.
But that was only because Mr. Macron’s centrist coalition was large enough — with about 250 seats — and the parties opposed to him were too divided to pose a consistent threat. When it wasn’t, Mr. Macron’s government came dangerously close to falling.
Macron will appoint a prime minister from the leftist group. In a move reminiscent of the minority communists in revolutionary Russia styling themselves bolsheviks, or "majority party," the NFP, which will hold a bare plurality in the National Assembly, is claiming a "mandate to govern."
While definitely a heartbreaking disappointment for Le Pen and NR, it can't be called a defeat. In the 2007 elections, RN took 4.3 percent of the vote. In 2022, it won 18.7 percent. This year, it looks like it won 33.2 percent. As the dystopic effects of untrammeled Third World immigration, stagnating economies, and skyrocketing debt combine, it will get stronger (see Europe Begins the Long, Hard March Back From the Abyss After Stunning Right-Wing Election Victories – RedState).
France will look back at this day as their VERY LAST chance to get it right when it came to voting, just as the UK blew their very last chance, last week.
more in the cart than pulling it now...
And there will be even more in the cart to be pulled since the leftwing nut who runs the largest part wants: 1) to lower the retirement age to 60; 2) drastically increase pension payments; 3) bring back the wealth tax.
It’s not shocking. The “first round” was basically a poll, telling the ruling oligarchy what to do. Then they did it, and victory was theirs.
The leftists won in Britain and France.
The voters must be masochists because they’re in for a world of hurt.
LOL, yeah, good luck with that
RATS aren’t smart enough to understand the business model of a a lemonade stand...
How does one short sell an entire nation?
Europeans don’t like the icky Guns. Too bad. Thank GOD four our Founders.
Great informative post. Thanks.
Really worried about our “election”.
So they learned how to rig the count from our democrats?
Much ado over nothing. The French left lacks the majority needed to make policy. It will stumble along until the next election, probably within months. Not great for Macron, who likely hoped to make gains, but not unsalvageable. Detente with RN might be necessary.
(The leftists won in Britain )
I thought Nigel Farage’s side won.
My impression that while not great for Macron (and not Armageddon), this is more or less a Mexican standoff, rather than a complete Communist victory.
Been saying for awhile as others have here: let western Europe plunge into total civil war. It may be our only hope to wake up idiots here.
Macron will most likely resign.
Wonder where they got their voting machines...or, if they hired Biden liberals to count votes.
I hope this is not a foreshadowing of November. When you open your door to the wolves and allow them to vote, they always vote to eat YOU for dinner.
My hope is that the democrats will not be able to find as many loyal foot soldiers to do their dirty work for them this fall.
When they are dying on battlefield, I will push with my last breath to let them die in on their own choices. We gave enough blood for Europe. I want fortress USA. Let France surrender in 2 weeks, British try to hide on their island ….
We gave way too much for them in the 20th century. I say let them fight with sticks and stones after the Muslims rape, murder invade them.
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