Posted on 06/17/2024 5:48:01 AM PDT by Red Badger
Trump is now favored to win the election in November, with 538’s simulations using polling, economic, and demographic data show a four-point lead over Biden.
In the early afternoon, 538 projected Trump winning 50 out of 100 times with Biden winning 49 out of 100 times in their simulations. In a 2 pm update, Trump’s lead grew, with the former president winning 52 out of 100 times and Biden winning 48 out of 100 times the simulation was run.
Of 1,000 simulations run, Trump came out on top in 509 of them, while Biden won in 487 of the runs. There was no winner in 4 of the simulations.
538 states that its forecast "is based on a combination of polls and campaign 'fundamentals,' such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to 'call' a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win."
As Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk noted, this is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast.
538’s simulations also found that Trump is more probable as of Friday to win the Electoral College, while Biden is more likely to with the national popular vote. Trump was found to win the Electoral College with less than 350 electoral votes 38 out of 100 times, while Biden won 28 out of 100 times. Biden was found to win the national popular vote 59 out of 100 times while Trump won 41 out of 100 times.
The simulations also found that Trump has a far higher chance of winning at least one state that he did not win in 2020. Trump won one of these states 80 out of 100 times, while Biden won one of these states 48 out of 100 times.
Wonder what the Over-Under is for how many times Trump will be muted. We know the number for Biden: Zero, not once.
So this means that we don’t have to go out and vote for Trump? Sarc/
Wouldn’t it be a hoot if Trump gets muted and he uses sign language to communicate Biden is crooked / CNN is fake news / etc? Can’t mute the visuals (at least they haven’t thought of that yet).
“Can’t mute the visuals (at least they haven’t thought of that yet).”
*************
They’ll just cut the camera off of him and focus on Biden.
The cards are heavily stacked here. Nothing left to chance.
They will stop at nothing to destroy Trump.
The female vote is an issue. Cheating is also an issue.
I think it would be a big mistake for Trump to lower himself to that level of juvenile attacks—could cost him a lot of votes. He needs to stick to the issues and to how much better the country will be with him in the White House again.
Now if Trump is prepped, he can interject while he’s muted but Biden will hear. If he can rattle Biden’s cage, get Biden to get unhinged, while only he is on camera...
The “moderators” will use mute whenever Trump starts scoring points to keep him off balance. It will be their biggest weapon against him, and they will not hesitate in the least to use it.
This is going to be a fake debate. Totally staged and stacked in every way against Trump.
Voter fraud is typically don't in black precincts that turn in their ballot boxed 3 to 4 hours later than average. The typical voter fraud consists of 'voting the people who don't show up to vote'... (it's now the 'dead vote' comes into being - they never show up to vote)
the lack of secure elections in the big precincts of Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Arizona (and perhaps even Virginia? NOVA?) do not bode well for America.
By people you mean idiots
Yeah, women prefer a guy who sniffs their hair and showers with his teen daughter. Such a gentleman.
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