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538 now projects Trump winner of 2024 election...This is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast.
Post Millennial ^ | June 14, 2024 | Hannah Nightingale

Posted on 06/17/2024 5:48:01 AM PDT by Red Badger

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To: dfwgator

Letting Joe Biden win will put a stop to that for good. Staying home will be the only option.

They may cheat him in for the win but I will at least know that I didn’t capitulate.

People could at least vote and hope Trump wins so that innocent victims of Merrick Garland lawfare can be pardoned.


21 posted on 06/17/2024 6:09:34 AM PDT by dforest ( )
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To: CodeToad
It could be that those running 538 want the Rats to win and are sending Rat Party Headquarters a clear warning...get rid of The Big Guy...and Kommie Harris.

It's being suggested that The Former Twelfth Lady is tanned,rested and ready.

22 posted on 06/17/2024 6:09:56 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Never Trust A Man Whose Uncle Was Eaten By Cannibals)
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To: rod5591

why don’t you call Trump and give him your expert advice.


23 posted on 06/17/2024 6:18:43 AM PDT by Mr. K (No consequence of repealing Obamacare is worse than Obamacare)
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To: Red Badger

Nate Silver previously has said Trump had no ability to win the presidency, over a period of five or more weeks, in interviews, yet, he went on to win the 2016 election.

538 is a crud site.


24 posted on 06/17/2024 6:25:03 AM PDT by ConservativeMind (Trump: Befuddling Democrats, Republicans, and the Media for the benefit of the US and all mankind.)
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To: rod5591

[...who pretty much hate him due to his caviler treatment of women in general.”

You have any recent examples to offer? By recent, I mean anything that doesn’t refer specifically to Hillary Clinton or Rosie O’Donnell?

As for your comment, If Trump’s current black/Latino support is even kind of accurate, there is no math for Biden to win — full stop.

We’ll have to see what Biden does with cheating and the illegal immigrant vote between now and Election Day. They’ve shown their ability to steal, will they do it while the world is watching and expecting it?


25 posted on 06/17/2024 6:35:22 AM PDT by Bshaw (A nefarious deceit is upon us all!)
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To: rod5591

They said if he can get 15% of the black vote, he wins. He already has it. Now you’re saying it’s the women’s vote.


26 posted on 06/17/2024 6:35:47 AM PDT by roving (Deplorable Erectionists Listless Vessel )
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To: All

1) For zero rational reason, one can pretty solidly presume that 1/3 of posts onto a polling thread will be about cheating and fraud and vote counting.

2) Biden’s 2020 score was a 7 million vote advantage. 5 of those in California and 2 in NY. This is enormous concentration. We can reliably presume it hasn’t changed, and thus for Trump to have closed a national popular vote gap and even lead it in some measures means all those states that are NOT California or NY have surged his support.

3) The 538 guy has been beating the drum lately on replacing Biden. Biden will absolutely not be replaced if even one poll shows him with a lead, and a few do as of now.

4) Michigan and Wisconsin in all polls to date have been very close and Biden has the lead in a few of them. It is for this reason the GOP should be shutting up about Israel. Michigan’s Muslim population is sufficient to flip that state from 2020, even if not a single additional black moved to Trump.


27 posted on 06/17/2024 6:51:27 AM PDT by Owen (.)
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To: Red Badger
Trump’s lead grew, with the former president winning 52 out of 100 times and Biden winning 48 out of 100 times the simulation was run.

Trump wins 100 out of 100 in a fair election, but there's a high probability that's not what we'll get.

28 posted on 06/17/2024 7:06:41 AM PDT by libertylover (Our biggest problem, by far, is that almost all of big media is AGENDA-DRIVEN, not-truth driven.)
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To: roving

Who is”They”?


29 posted on 06/17/2024 7:09:23 AM PDT by rod5591
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To: roving

Who is”They”?


30 posted on 06/17/2024 7:09:35 AM PDT by rod5591
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To: CatOwner

Remember when Trump was leading in all the swing states then they stopped the count in the middle of the night? Then when the count resumed Biden was suddenly ahead? That wasn’t awesome.


31 posted on 06/17/2024 7:16:01 AM PDT by 38special (The government is ruining our country!)
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To: Red Badger
both 538’s simulations using polling, economic, and demographic data show a four-point lead over Biden.

Well, there’s your problem right there: they forgot to factor in the massive fraud/cheating.

32 posted on 06/17/2024 7:32:32 AM PDT by Sicon ("All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others." - G. Orwell>)
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To: Gay State Conservative

It does not work that way.


33 posted on 06/17/2024 7:40:01 AM PDT by nwrep
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To: JSM_Liberty

That’s because polls themselves were not accurate in 2016.


34 posted on 06/17/2024 7:40:34 AM PDT by nwrep
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To: HombreSecreto

LOL


35 posted on 06/17/2024 7:41:24 AM PDT by nwrep
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To: ConservativeMind

Indeed, I don’t trust Silver either. However, libs do trust Silver and reference his polling and his 538 site all the time.

I’m getting out the popcorn, MSNBC, CNN etc may be suicidal.


36 posted on 06/17/2024 7:51:02 AM PDT by Roadrunner383
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To: rod5591

“Trump’s going to lose, unless he makes an effort to molify the female vote”

The female vote isn’t the issue. No person’s vote is the issue. Cheating is the issue.


37 posted on 06/17/2024 7:54:39 AM PDT by MayflowerMadam (Navarro didn't kill himself.)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; Bockscar; BraveMan; cardinal4; ...

38 posted on 06/17/2024 7:57:25 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (Putin should skip ahead to where he kills himself in the bunker.)
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To: Roadrunner383

My fast forward and replay buttons going to need lubrication.


39 posted on 06/17/2024 7:58:20 AM PDT by going hot (Happiness is a Momma deuce)
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To: nwrep

“Just wait till the first debate.”

**************

The first rigged debate. A fake debate if you will.


40 posted on 06/17/2024 7:59:58 AM PDT by Starboard
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