Posted on 06/13/2024 7:40:48 AM PDT by Red Badger
Former President Trump appears to be making stunning inroads with young voters as he stakes out youth-friendly positions that defy GOP orthodoxy and contradict past statements.
Why it matters: The prospect of Trump coming within striking distance of winning young voters — which shows up in poll after poll — would have seemed unthinkable at the outset of the cycle.
State of play: Public polling suggests a significant shift toward Trump could be coming in the 2024 election among the country's youngest voters.
The latest New York Times/Siena polling of likely voters has President Biden with just a 2-point lead over Trump among those between 18-29. A recent Quinnipiac survey has Trump ahead by a point among registered voters between 18-34.
By contrast, CNN exit polling showed that Biden won the 18-29-year-old vote by 24 percentage points in 2020, and that Hillary Clinton won it by 19 points in 2016.
Reality check: The polls could be wrong. Polling younger voters has become more difficult in recent years as answering landlines — a traditional method of polling outreach — is an archaic practice for today's youth.
Zoom in: Trump is staking out policies that cater to the preferences of younger voters, even as they don't map neatly to the conservative consensus.
1. After proposing a TikTok ban during his presidency, Trump baffled conservative China hawks by coming out against such a move earlier this year.
The electoral upside of that stance is clear: TikTok is popular among younger users, and support for a ban grows as the age of respondents increases.
Trump joined TikTok and posted his first video earlier this month.
2. Trump has hugged the cryptocurrency world in recent weeks. He's boosted NFTs, vowed to end regulatory hostility and endorsed U.S.-mined Bitcoin as a way to help America become "energy dominant."
That contrasts with the Biden administration's posture toward the industry. SEC chair Gary Gensler has become one of crypto's biggest villains.
During his own presidency, Trump declared that he was "not a fan" of crypto — which is most frequently embraced by young men.
3. Trump singled out a new constituency this week by vowing to get rid of tip taxation, the Washington Post reports.
The comments, made at a Las Vegas rally, may have been targeted at career service-industry workers — and Latinos in particular. But young restaurant and bar workers nationwide might take notice.
Between the lines: Trump's positions frequently cut against positions he's held in the past, bringing into question whether they represent sincerely held beliefs or electoral pandering.
The bottom line: Any massive movement of young voters to the right could be a once-in-a-generation victory for Republicans.
The youth vote hasn't been close since Al Gore beat George W. Bush by 2 points in 2000. No Republican has won young Americans since 1988.
“... that Biden won the 18-29-year-old vote by 24 percentage points in 2020, and that Hillary Clinton won it by 19 points in 2016.”
maybe the yunguns’ should think about this while whining they can’t afford a house....
One of the determinants of “likely voter” has always been “did you vote in the last election” . . . which they could not if too young.
Some other surveys used as determinant “Do you strongly intend to vote this year”. Not the same thing, and may not measure the same thing.
Carville once said “There is a word for candidates who are relying on new voters. That word is loser.”
It’s tough to know new voters who are likely.
Young voters have the most to lose if Bidenomics continues. Seems like some of the young’uns are catching onto that fact.
His Las Vegas speech promising to stop taxing tips-smart. Many of these workers fit the demographic.
Waitresses and waiters won’t have to pay taxes, that would sure increase competition for those jobs.
Not to mention with inflation, a table of 4 at a nice restaurant might have a $400 - $500 tab, 20% of that is $100-$125. 4-6 tables a night and a 4 day week brings in $100,000 per year in tips tax free.
Plus all the new jobs that would switch to tipping.
I’m not sure the tax paying public would want to tip for luxuries like restaurant meals to someone who was gifted immunity from income tax by a political party.
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