1. Summarized conclusions (brief content)
The study was prepared and implemented by the collaboration of the platforms Resurgam, Military Fortune Teller and Mortis Aeterna.
Our calculation showed that within 5-7 months, the central bases of the tank reserve were emptied by almost 400 units/tanks
The average rate of depletion of bases is up to 70 units/month. This rate makes it possible to cover current losses, but its stability throughout 2023 and early 2024 (and other factors, which are detailed in the text) indicates that the “ceiling of scaling” of production/modernization/recovery of tanks has been reached.
An analysis of the main armored factories showed a large overcrowding of sites, which indicates the overload of these factories, and not only that.
In the studied area, we covered up to 95% of the main places where “enemy tank reserves” could be stored. Our calculation showed that 3,150 tanks at the central bases of the tank reserve and 1,300-1,500 tanks at the waiting areas and near the workshops of the main armored repair plants remain suitable for deconservation/restoration.
This amount of the enemy should be enough to support the restoration of tanks without interruption until the beginning of 2026.
Against the background of other information, we singled out three main scenarios for the depletion of the enemy’s tank reserves: “optimistic”: 12-18 months; “moderate”: 18-24 months and “pessimistic”: more than 24 months.
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Follows in depth analysis with base images.
With the ‘moderate’ scenario. 18-24 months.
“three main scenarios for the depletion of the enemy’s (Russia’s) tank reserves: “optimistic”: 12-18 months; “moderate”: 18-24 months and “pessimistic”: more than 24 months.”
Optimism aside, the amount of Military aid that Ukraine receives is a significant variable, in determining that outcome. I think that a 12-36 month window would cover a lot of the remaining old Soviet arsenal, in addition to just tanks, at current rates.
But it comes down to Will of the West, to pay the required bills