“three main scenarios for the depletion of the enemy’s (Russia’s) tank reserves: “optimistic”: 12-18 months; “moderate”: 18-24 months and “pessimistic”: more than 24 months.”
Optimism aside, the amount of Military aid that Ukraine receives is a significant variable, in determining that outcome. I think that a 12-36 month window would cover a lot of the remaining old Soviet arsenal, in addition to just tanks, at current rates.
But it comes down to Will of the West, to pay the required bills
But it comes down to Will of the West, to pay the required bills..
—
Which will be cheap compared to the bill created by allowing Putin to take UKR.
Kremlin snuff box. 04/12/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
Not this year. Gerasimov said when the SVO might end
If all current conditions remain the same, the SVO may last another 3-4 years. This opinion was expressed by Valery Gerasimov in communication with generals close to him.
The Chief of the General Staff does not share Sergei Shoigu’s optimism that the SVO could end this year [ https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3860 ]. And he believes that Vladimir Putin’s “excessive trust” in the Minister of Defense led to the fact that Sergei Kuzhugetovich “was carried away by incomprehensible mysticism, makes the wrong decisions, and this can lead to serious losses.”
In addition, Gerasimov is disappointed with “how easily Shoigu can be enraged” ( referring to the conversation between the Minister of Defense and his French colleague Lecornu, after which Shoigu’s hands were shaking [ https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3882] ).
“The SVO will definitely not end this year and will last 3-4 years. This is how the situation develops. I don’t understand why Sergei Kuzhugetovich is trying to deceive Vladimir Vladimirovich,” our source at the General Staff quoted Gerasimov as saying.