"the 1st Cavalry Division Headquarters is heading overseas to support the NATO mission, taking over for 3rd Infantry Division Headquarters as that force rotates out."
"the 1st Cavalry Division Headquarters is heading overseas to support the NATO mission, taking over for 3rd Infantry Division Headquarters as that force rotates out."
Brent crude oil prices dropped $5/bbl in the last few days. Urals running about $75, WTI cracked below $80. Also a bad day for stocks yesterday, on high (or higher) for longer fears for US interest rates.
OilPrice.com reports:
“U.S. crude oil prices continued to plummet on Wednesday, falling over 3% and Brent crude right behind it, shedding over 2.8% on a surprise U.S. inventory build and uncertainty about interest rate cuts and the future of oil demand growth.
Darth Putin, KGB
2 days ago
Day 800 of my 3 day war. May the 4th. Everything is proceeding exactly as I have foreseen. Honest.
I remain a master strategist.
There’s a war in Europe?
I see that while I was gone, the Fellas bagged a Russian three star (the Russians themselves arrested some more of their own); more ships were sunk; jets shot down, open season has been declared on targets within Russia; and another mountain of Russian Infantry corpses was accumulated.
Also, good to see that we have been sending more Artillery. Good call.
It is a big job demilitarizing Russia, but it is getting done.
Kyiv Independent reports:
"A Russian oil refinery in the northwestern Komi Republic caught fire on June 2, leading to casualties, the Komi Republic’s Investigative Committee said.
The committee said there were both injured and dead in the incident but didn't disclose further details...
...The oil refinery belongs to Russia's second-largest oil company, Lukoil. It is located four kilometers away from the city of Ukhta, according to the head of the Komi Republic, Vladimir Uiba.
Uiba said in a Telegram post that the fire was caused by "non-compliance with safety regulations" and not by a Ukrainian drone attack...
...The regional branch of the Ministry of Emergency Situations said that 74 people and 22 pieces of equipment were involved in extinguishing the fire."
Russian Urals crude oil peaked in mid-April over $78, and has been dropping since then. Now under $68.
Oil prices dropped 3% today (Monday, 3 June), after Sunday’s meeting of OPEC+.
They are holding their existing production cuts in place for now, but announced that they would allow voluntary cuts (60% of the total) to resume later in the year. They did nothing to punish cheaters, and raised the UAE’s quota 300,000 bpd.
There is a ten day delay in reporting the price of Urals, but it is probably down around $64.
Kremlin snuff box, 06/04/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
Personnel decides everything. Briefly about mobilization, conscientious objectors and conscripts
May became very revealing in terms of the situation on the battlefield.
First of all, in the Kharkov region, where the Russian Armed Forces tried to break through and force the enemy to use reserves.
What’s the result? Despite all attempts, our troops have not yet managed to gain a foothold in Volchansk. Although the Ukrainian Armed Forces really sent a lot of reserves to the region.
The General Staff has different assessments of our breakthrough. There are those who believe that we should have thrown more forces into the area in the Kharkov region, and there are those who believe that the offensive itself was premature (they nod at Shoigu).
[ finding troops getting more and more difficult ]
We have data on losses, and, unfortunately, they are growing. At the request of respected people from the Ministry of Defense, we will publish them later. But, more importantly, the situation with reserves is also not encouraging.
“The search for people to join the ranks of our army continues in several directions. There is an international vector, within which fighters are actively being sought in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Lately, it has become more difficult to lure even with a long ruble.
The efficiency of the internal search for reserves has also decreased - prisoners in a large there are no numbers. They send refuseniks, fresh contract soldiers (sometimes without training). In general, the work is being done, but the results, frankly speaking, leave much to be desired,” a source at the Ministry of Defense familiar with the situation told us.
According to him, in such conditions it is hardly possible to talk about demobilization. “I would rather think about a new wave of mobilization. It’s time to defend our homeland, and not bury our heads in the sand,” the general said.
In addition, he noted that the number of officers in reserve units is significantly lower than in combat ones.
“Sometimes an officer without combat experience is put in the place of a deceased combat commander. Conflicts arise on the ground. After all, the book and the real war are very different,” the source said.
Kremlin snuff box, 06/03/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
Two air defense launchers were lost in the Belgorod region. The conscript probably died
Friends, we received bad news from the Belgorod region. There’s an enemy blow
2 S-400 air defense systems were seriously damaged. The strike was carried out using Western-style weapons. Preliminary - HIMARS.
According to our information, the installations were used to strike Kharkov and other populated areas in the border zone. Also, unfortunately, the radar and a lot of auxiliary equipment were lost.
Please note that we have checked the information about the incident in detail. Our interlocutors claim that after the attack on the air defense systems, one of the conscripts is listed as missing. Two officers died.
“Conscripts are involved in guarding air defense systems, this is normal practice,” we were told at the General Staff. It is likely that the missing conscript also died, but his death will not be announced publicly.
Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov has repeatedly said that conscripts need to be removed from the Belgorod region. He addressed the president with a letter in which he asked to expand the NVO zone to the Belgorod region.
“Belgorod has come under attack before. And now, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces have received permission to hit us with Western weapons, they will come more often,” one of Gladkov’s deputies said in upset feelings.
Kyiv Independent reports:
Baltic states to disconnect from joint Russian power grid (BRELL - Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) in February 2025 (about a year ahead of schedule)
“Estonian Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Jaanus Uiga said the countries would disconnect on Feb. 8, 2025, and join the European system the following day through the Lithuanian-Polish connection.”
I guess after that, it will be all clear, for Ukraine to fry that grid, as needed. Turnabout is fair play.
2025 could be a very bad year for Putin, and Russia.
Kyiv Independent reports:
“Germany has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine that includes three HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, 20 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, and 10 Leopard main battle tanks, the country’s defense ministry announced on June 14.
The package also includes two IRIS-T air defense systems, 21,000 rounds of 155 mm ammunition, and two Beaver bridge-laying vehicles.
Berlin announced last month that it planned to up its military aid to Ukraine by another 3.8 billion euros ($4.13 billion) in 2024, Reuters reported on May 21, citing an undisclosed source.
The news agency confirmed an earlier article by the tabloid Bild, which also said that the sum of over 7 billion euros, previously approved by Germany’s parliament for this year, has been almost entirely allocated”
Russian losses - 16472, of which: destroyed: 11881, damaged: 747, abandoned: 937, captured: 2907
Tanks (3139, of which destroyed: 2119, damaged: 157, abandoned: 347, captured: 516)
Towed Artillery (376, of which destroyed: 224, damaged: 52, abandoned: 5, captured: 95)
Self-Propelled Artillery (766, of which destroyed: 608, damaged: 45, abandoned: 5, captured: 108)
Multiple Rocket Launchers (383, of which destroyed: 293, damaged: 34, abandoned: 2, captured: 54)
Looks like the next NATO Secretary General will be current (centre-right) Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, now that he has overcome the Hungarian spoiler vote, by agreeing to let Hungary opt out of (but not block) NATO support for Ukraine.
Kyiv Independent reports:
“Hungarian Prime Minister (Orban) endorsed Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s bid to be the next Secretary General of NATO, after Rutte said he supported Budapest opting out of NATO initiatives to support Ukraine, Orban announced on June 18.
Incumbent NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited Hungary on June 12 for talks with Orban amid fears Budapest could derail future plans of support for Kyiv, having repeatedly obstructed assistance to Ukraine.
Orban told Stoltenberg that Hungary will not take part in any of the initiatives in support of Ukraine, but will not block them either. Stoltenberg said he accepted Hungary’s position...
...Orban said that “after yesterday’s (17 June) meeting in Brussels, Prime Minister Mark Rutte confirmed that he fully supports this deal and will continue to do so, should he become the next Secretary General of NATO.”
“In light of his pledge, Hungary is ready to support PM Rutte’s bid for NATO Secretary-General.”...
...Twenty-nine NATO members have already backed Rutte as Stoltenberg’s successor, with Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania long being the remaining holdouts.
Slovak President Peter Pellegrini also publicly backed Rutte’s candidacy on June 18.”
Russia continues to dig deeper into their domestic oil industry and the population’s standard of living, to pay Putin’s war bills.
OilPrice.com reports:
“In a significant rebound, Russia’s oil and gas revenues for June are projected to increase by over 50% year-on-year, reaching $9.4 billion, according to new Reuters calculations. This surge comes after a reduction in refinery subsidies”...
(How much of the revenue increase came from reducing their domestic subsidies, is not stated. Effectively, that is an additional tax on Russian consumers and refiners)
...”The projected increase in June revenues, up from 794 billion rubles in May and 529 billion rubles in June 2023”...
(note that the 50% year over year increase is in rubles, not dollars)
“The Finance Ministry’s anticipated report on July 3 will provide detailed insights into these financial trends. The 2024 federal budget anticipates oil and gas revenues to rise by 21% from 2023, following a year marked by lower oil prices and reduced gas exports.
Despite the economic strains, Russia has continued to sustain its defense expenditures, resulting in consecutive annual budget deficits of over 3 trillion rubles, approximately 2% of GDP. These deficits have been managed through internal borrowing and (cashing out) the National Wealth Fund.
(They have also been covering their exploding war costs by taxing the oil industry to the point of effective nationalization. Now they are removing some of the subsidies that kept energy prices low for their domestic users, and broader tax increases are reportedly on the way, now that the oil industry has already been squeezed for what it is worth)
President Vladimir Putin has emphasized the country’s economic growth, which stood at 3.6% in 2023 after a 1.2% contraction in 2022. However, local economists caution that this growth is driven largely by increased production in the defense sector, which offers limited benefits to the broader population.
(Beyond just a surge in non-productive Government Defense spending, Russia is also employing communist Chinese-style real estate market schemes, to pump up GDP in the short term, as well as expanding their money supply printing rubles)
As Russia navigates its economic challenges, the resilience of its oil and gas sector remains a critical factor in its financial stability.”
(Russia fundamentally remains a one crop economy - oil. Natural gas is not coming back to what it was)
Trump seemed confident last night, that he would have strong leverage over Putin, to impose a deal if elected. Russia’s Strategic position seems precarious, as their Military resources dwindle, and the West is formally solidifying behind Ukraine, for a ten year commitment. Russia needs a way out of Putin’s deepening mess.
Radio Free Europe reports:
EU Pledges Continued Support for Ukraine with New Security Agreement
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on June 27 signed security agreements with the European Union, Estonia, and Lithuania (the 18th and 19th Nations to do so, including all members of the G-7) at the start of a two-day EU summit in Brussels.
The security deal with the European Union reinforces the bloc’s support for Kyiv in nine areas of security and defense policy.
A draft of the agreement obtained by RFE/RL reiterates the “resolute condemnation of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine” and reaffirms the EU’s “unwavering support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity,” Kyiv’s right to self-defense against the Russian aggression, and its pursuit of a just peace.
The draft says that the EU supports Ukraine’s reforms and EU accession path, noting that overall EU assistance to Ukraine amounts to almost 100 billion euros ($107 billion), including 35 billion euros in military support.
“The European Union is determined to continue providing Ukraine and its people all the necessary political, financial, economic, humanitarian, military, and diplomatic support for as long as it takes and as intensely as needed,” the document says.
The draft stresses that “Russia must not prevail” in its full-scale war launched in February 2022 and says Ukraine must get back territory annexed by Moscow. It also lists commitments to providing military equipment, military training, and cooperation between the European and the Ukrainian defense industries.
The agreements Zelenskiy signed with Lithuania and Estonia while at the EU summit are intended to complement other similar agreements sealed between Ukraine and its allies. They are not mutual defense pacts but do amount to pledges to provide Ukraine with weapons and other aid and deter any future invasion.”
OilPrice.com reports:
“Donald Trump has pledged to ramp up U.S. domestic oil production and undo some regulations to make that happen, the Republican presidential candidate told Bloomberg Businessweek in an exclusive interview published on Wednesday.
The interview with the former U.S. president took place at Mar-a-Lago in late June, two days before the first presidential debate and two weeks prior to the assassination attempt on Trump this weekend...
...“We have more liquid gold than anybody,” Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek. “We need energy at low prices. The advantage we have all over almost every country including the very large ones is that we have more energy than anybody. We have more of the real energy, the energy that works”...
...If he wins in November, Trump is set to overturn or at least try to dismantle many of President Biden’s energy and climate policies, including methane rules, the pause on new LNG export permits, EV mandates, federal oil and gas leasing, and even parts of the Inflation Reduction Act.”
Ukraine's top diplomat conveyed to China's foreign minister in Guangzhou that Kyiv remains open to peace talks with Moscow
Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson penned in article in the Daily Mail calling on Ukraine to concede territory to get a ceasefire deal. Johnson was a frequent visitor to Kyiv last year and has been one of Ukraine’s most ardent supporters.
Adding to the talk of form of a possible deal, Kyiv Mayor Vitaly Klitschko, who’s emerged as one of Zelenskiy’s top rivals over the past year, speculated in an interview with Italy’s Corriere Della Serra over the weekend that the Ukrainian leader might agree to territorial compromises with Russia. In his words, “Will he…consider a territorial compromise with Putin?...Zelenskiy will probably have to resort to a referendum. I don't think he can reach such painful and important agreements on his own without popular legitimacy.”
