ISW backs off warning of imminent annexation risk in Transnistria (27 Feb).
“Recent developments in Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova, are unlikely to pose a military threat to Ukraine and will more likely impact Moldova’s European Union (EU) integration prospects... ISW is amending its warning forecast in light of continued Transnistrian officials’ statements that the upcoming Congress of Transnistrian Deputies will discuss Moldovan economic policies, likely related to changes to Moldova’s Customs Code that went into effect on January 1, 2024...
...Moldova’s path towards EU membership required Moldova to change to its Customs Code to align with EU regulations. Moldova had previously exempted Transnistrian businesses from paying duties to the Moldovan government for Transnistrian imports from and exports to the EU and instead allowed Transnistrian businesses to pay duties to the Transnistrian government.
Transnistria responded to the January 2024 changes requiring that Transnistrian businesses pay required duties to the Moldovan government by increasing taxes on about 2,000 Moldovan businesses in Transnistria, but Transnistrian President Vadim Krasnoselsky stated on February 24 that customs payments to the Transnistrian budget still decreased by 18 percent since the start of 2024.
Major actors in Transnistria have varying economic and political interests. The American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (CTP) previously assessed that Transnistria is a mafia state run by Viktor Gushan, whose company Sheriff Enterprises controls a majority of the Transnistrian economy and receives large portions of Transnistria’s government spending.
Gushan’s businesses have been heavily oriented towards the EU after Moldova signed a trade deal with the EU in 2014 that guaranteed tariff-free access to EU markets. Gushan’s businesses would also benefit from the reestablishment of good Ukrainian-Transnistrian relations, as Transnistria imported and exported most of its goods through Ukraine until Ukraine closed those borders in 2022 due to Russia’s full-scale invasion — facts that would give Gushan good reason to oppose Transnistrian annexation into Russia for economic reasons.
EU officials have indicated that Moldova could join the EU without Transnistria. Gushan may prefer a Western-oriented Moldova in which Transnistria enjoys special tax exceptions over annexation into Russia or Moldovan EU membership without Transnistria. Moldova, however, is unlikely to reverse its customs code changes given its current commitment to joining the EU. Gushan’s calculus, therefore, is complex, and his preferences are unclear at this time. ISW will provide an update following the Congress of Deputies on February 28.
Russia may also hope to exploit a hybrid play in Transnistria taking advantage of recent developments. Gushan likely competes with the Transnistrian Ministry of State Security (MGB), reportedly a “department” of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) that takes orders from the Kremlin. Citizens of both Russian-influenced regions of Moldova — Transnistria and Gagauzia — notably recently protested Moldova’s new Customs Code. Russia may attempt to exploit domestic opposition to Moldovan policies to sow instability in Moldova and delay Moldova’s accession to the EU.”
Russian Aerospace Forces dropping like rain. A-50 (AWACS equivalents) MIA lately. Putin’s demilitarization campaign against Russia continues at a brisk pace.
ISW (27 Feb):
“Ukrainian forces have reportedly shot down two Russian Su-34s on February 27, the tenth downed Russian military aircraft within roughly as many days...
...Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated on February 21 that Ukrainian forces have downed seven Russian Su-34 and Su-35 fighter jets since February 16.
The February 27 Su-34 shoot-downs are likely connected with Russian glide bomb strikes in Donetsk Oblast, particularly near Avdiivka as Russian forces use heavy glide bomb strikes in an attempt to exploit gains in the Avdiivka area.
Ukraine’s downing of a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft on February 23 has likely constrained Russian strategic reconnaissance capabilities. Ihnat stated that Russian forces have not deployed another A-50 over the Sea of Azov since the downing and have increased their use of aerial reconnaissance drones across the theater to compensate.”
Russia continuing to model after the CCP, trying to implement a Great Firewall of their own, to isolate Russians from the rest of the world online, and dial up their Police State monitoring and censorship to 11, on a scale of 10.
ISW (27 Feb):
“Russia likely tested an element of its Sovereign Internet on February 27, likely in an effort to strengthen control over individual aspects of the Russian information space.
Russian sources reported several widespread outages of prominent social media platforms on February 27, including Telegram, YouTube, VKontakte (VK), Viber, WhatsApp, and Zoom, and later reported that service has since been restored.
Russian sources also reported that Russians were able to access some blocked social media platforms, including Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter, during the outage.
Russian State Duma Committee on Information Policy Deputy Head Anton Tkachev stated that Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor caused the outage while testing and reconfiguring gateways to identify and close “bottlenecks” to prohibited content.
BBC Russian Service quoted Russian organization ”Network Freedoms” as saying that Roskomnadzor may have been adjusting settings related to “technical means of countering threats” (TSPU), a set of tools that Russian federal law obligates Russian telecom providers to possess. “Network Freedoms” told BBC Russian Service that Roskomnazdor is developing procedures and training specialists to use TSPU to centrally manage the Russian internet and develop a service on state-affiliated social media network VK to better censor content on the site.
Russia is likely attempting to expand this centralization to other social media sites that are active in Russia given the Kremlin’s tensions with other social media platforms. Russia has declared Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp parent company Meta as a “terrorist” organization, and Telegram has refused to comply with some of the Kremlin’s more extensive censorship measures.”
Reuters reports:
Russia bans gasoline exports for 6 months from March 1
“Russia on Tuesday (27 Feb) ordered a six-month ban on gasoline exports from March 1 to keep prices stable amid rising demand from consumers and farmers and to allow for maintenance of refineries in the world’s second largest oil exporter...
...Domestic gasoline prices are sensitive for motorists and farmers in the world’s biggest wheat exporter ahead of a March 15-17 presidential election, while some Russian refineries have been hit by Ukrainian drone attacks in recent months.”
Joe Blogs on Youtube recently posted on the Russian oil market:
Russia says it’s current export ban is to allow for planned maintenance of refineries, but that would add up to 9 months of planned maintenance out of 12, along with the last export ban - not the best planning. (nice quip there Joe)
They also said that the export ban was also to support domestic agricultural requirements, but that is BS, as the Spring planting season is only about a month, not six.
Total oil export volumes have remained in a relatively narrow band throughout the war (5.5-6-5 million barrels per day), supporting World oil supply and prices, but Russia’s proportion of less profitable discounted crude oil relative to higher margin refined products has increased, making for much lower overall profits and tax revenue.
The discount of Russian Urals Grade to the Brent benchmark is growing again, after the West began cracking down on smugglers (price cap enforcement) in October (and more seriously in December) 2023.
Aug-Oct 2023 Russian tax revenues on oil and refined products recovered (from around $6 Billion per month, to around $10 Billion) on higher Global oil prices and successful smuggling around the price caps, but they have since dropped back down to around $6 Billion, with the decline accelerating (likely due at least in part to attacks on refineries).
With refined product volume dropping, several Russian refineries are becoming uneconomic to operate, and some may have to close. Refined products production is now down 1/3 from before the war, potentially making 1/3 of refineries redundant. Soviet thinking might have them continue to operate at a loss instead, until things break.
Time to blow up more refineries - it seems to be working.
Interesting watch on Finnish winter war, lots of parallels
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3jgrSxkvgYA
Moscovian losses in Tanks and Artillery to date 03/01/24.
Tanks 2764:
destroyed: 1810
damaged: 148
abandoned: 267
captured: 539
Towed Artillery: 347
destroyed: 201
damaged: 41
abandoned: 5
captured: 100
Self-Propelled Artillery: 682
destroyed: 529
damaged: 39
abandoned: 7
captured: 107
Multiple Rocket Launchers: 353
destroyed: 265
damaged: 32
abandoned: 2
captured: 54
Tanks destroyed: 1810
Artillery Destroyed: 995
Kyiv Independent reports:
Ukraine signs long-term security agreement with Netherlands
“The Netherlands joins the U.K., Germany, France, Denmark, Italy, and Canada, which have signed similar deals to help Ukraine repel Russia’s aggression based on a pledge made by the Group of Seven (G7) last July.”
Nobody signed any with Russia, but Armenia is talking about pulling out of their old one with Russia.
Putin...
“BUDAPEST (Reuters) - Hungarian parliament speaker Sandor Lezsak has signed off on the ratification of Sweden’s NATO accession and forwarded the legislation to the president’s office for promulgation, voting records on parliament’s website showed on Saturday.
Lawmakers approved Sweden’s NATO accession on Feb. 26, clearing the last hurdle before the historic step by the Nordic country whose neutrality lasted through two world wars and the Cold War.”
Guess who is drilling for their own natural gas?
Germany and Austria. (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/This-Could-Be-A-Gamechanger-For-Natural-Gas-In-Europe.html )
Putin did that.
He is a mater Strategist.
OT:
We have no heavy icebreakers. The only ‘operational’ one is falling apart, and its is only a Class 2 breaker.
The plan to build new ones is of course over budget and delayed until 2028. The requirement is that these ships be built in the US. Alas, the USA can no longer make the plate needed for Polar Class 1 heavy icebreakers, just as it cannot make the plate for battleships: we have lost the skill.
The Fins and the Russians still have this skill in steel making. The Chinese are in the process of acquiring it for their heavy icebreakers. Russia has perhaps the best heavy breakers in the world: nuclear powered, Class 1s can slice through ice 10 feet thick at speed of 10 knots, thicker ice slows them a bit. Not to mention the swimming pools and saunas for the crews.
There’s a wonderful video of some Russian ice fishermen in their pickups on the ice looking up in awe as the Russian nuclear powered ice breaker ‘50 Let Pobedy’ passes them doing 20 knots.
Since the US Coast Guard is currently incapable of fulfilling its Arctic missions, they are again looking into buying and existing Class 3 icebreaker built in the US in 2012. (Class 3 breakers can go through ice 3 feet thick at 3 knots. Class 1 are only Russian.)
Here’s more on the possible US Coast Guard purchase:
Coast Guard Poised To Buy Badly Needed Private Icebreaker
The Coast Guard is far from meeting ice-breaking mission demands in the strategic Arctic region and currently only has one heavy icebreaker.
https://www.twz.com/sea/coast-guard-poised-to-buy-badly-needed-private-icebreaker
Russia is a Mafiatocracy.
Putin’s mafia Capos are expanding and militarizing their crews, to a degree that puts Mexican drug cartels to shame.
Newsweek reports (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-allies-quietly-gathering-private-armies/ar-BB1jmZQs?cvid=09ac05dba2574ef1a0f24147a496e8ac&ei=4 ):
Putin Allies Quietly Gathering Private Armies
“Russian oligarchs Arkady and Boris Rotenberg have decided to create a private army, similar to Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group, consisting of soccer hooligans, a local investigative site reported.
The Rotenberg brothers, childhood friends and close allies of Russian President Vladimir Putin, were introduced to the Española battalion, a paramilitary group of far-right soccer fans, by Viktor Shendrik, the head of the security service of the Russian Railways, who sponsors the group.
“Española was created by fans, mostly of Spartak [soccer club]. Then the Rotenbergs came in with the idea of taking a PMC [private military company] under their own control,” one source told Important Stories, an independent Russian publication. “A lot of major companies are creating their own private armies right now, and the brothers wanted to create their own private army on the basis of Española.”
Expand article logo Continue reading
Russian companies and state agencies have financed dozens of pseudo-mercenary groups that are now fighting in Ukraine.”
As we saw with Wagner, private armies battle hardened in Ukraine, can be quickly re-purposed for battle in Russia...
...Former U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling warned in March 2023 that private military groups in Russia would “contribute to chaos” should Putin’s government collapse.
Hertling made the remarks on X, formerly Twitter, while responding to Sergej Sumlenny, an expert on Eastern Europe, who posted: “Reports in Russian social media appear, that companies like Gazprom, Rosneft and other start their own private military companies.”
“The Russian elites prepare for a scenario of military defeat of Russia and vacuum of power after that,” Sumlenny added.”
Darth Putin
On This Day in 1953 Stalin died. Lying a pool of his own urine surrounded by underlings terrified of being victims of the system they helped create.
Imagine that in the 21st century.
The delay in the US picking up the Defense bill for them, seems to have instigated a bit of preparation in the EU, in case they might have to look out for themselves.
The EU is attempting to systematically strengthen its Defense Industrial Base. So far, it is the usual analysis paralysis and underfunding typical of most European Defense initiatives, but it is new that they are creating a standing process for it, which can take on a life of its own within the bureaucracy and budget.
Kyiv Post reports:
“EU officials on Tuesday unveiled an ambitious proposal to massively boost weapons production and procurement in the bloc to shift from a reliance on US arms and in reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine...
...The European Defence Industrial Strategy aims, over the long term, to give incentives to European arms manufacturers to invest more, make their production more agile and – for the first time – to collectively catalogue what they have available.”
And separately, they report (apparently as part of the same effort):
“The European Commission is set to discuss the viability of a “war economy mode” transition today aimed at increasing the EU’s arms production capacities by encouraging EU countries to purchase weapons together domestically, as reported by Reuters.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the EU’s inability to produce and procure a large number of munitions in a short period, which has led to the munition shortages suffered by Ukraine at present.
Thierry Breton, the European industry commissioner, proposed the creation of a European version of the US Foreign Military Sales scheme, under which Washington assists “eligible countries” when purchasing from US arms companies.
Another proposal from Breton aimed to encourage European weapons firms to prioritize domestic orders in times of crisis.
“We need to change the paradigm and move into war economy mode. This also means that the European defense industry must take more risks, with our support,” said Breton.
Breton’s proposal included a package of €1.5 billion ($1.63 billion) in new money through the end of 2027, with a special EU fund of €100 billion ($109 billion) for defense projects.
Despite the minuscule initial sum in terms of defense procurement, officials said the package would create a legal framework that could allow much greater spending in the future if the bloc desires to do so.”
This guy is pretty good
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ITlTTkmNUdM
ISW, 5 Feb:
“Russian aircraft appear to be continuing to conduct a relatively high volume of glide bomb strikes in Ukraine despite Ukrainian officials’ reports that Ukrainian forces have downed several bomber aircraft in recent weeks. Forbes reported on March 4 that Russian Su-34 aircraft, escorted by Su-35 aircraft, are conducting one hundred or more sorties per day to conduct glide bomb strikes on Ukrainian positions at a range of 25 miles (about 40 kilometers).
The New York Times reported on March 5 that Russian tactics are shifting to intensify operations in the air domain and that Russian forces’ “more aggressive” air support on the front lines has helped Russian forces to advance recently in eastern Ukraine. These reports suggest that the Russian Air Force is maintaining a high tempo of fixed-wing air missions in Ukraine and is possibly willing to tolerate risks to fixed-wing aircraft, likely because the Russian command may have decided that the positive effects generated by such air operations outweigh the costs associated with flying such missions...
...Forbes also reported that Ukrainian forces are using French-provided AASM Hammer glide bombs after France started supplying Ukraine with 50 of these bombs per month in January 2024. Forbes noted that Ukrainian forces previously conducted strikes with US-provided Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) glide bombs, but the supply of these bombs has halted due to the recent lack of US aid provisions to Ukraine.
Alex Jones & Jack Posobiec: Zelensky Needs To Expose The Biden Regime Before They Kill Him - 3/5/24@infowars @RealAlexJones @JackPosobiec #illuminati pic.twitter.com/2K1OOcfjOv— DOWNLOAD.NEWS ✞ AlexJonesMinerV2 (@DOWNLOADdotNEWS) March 5, 2024
Sweden's flag will be raised at the NATO headquarters in Brussels on March 11 around noon, marking the official start of the country's membership in the alliance, the Swedish TV4 channel reported on March 6.
UKRAINSKA PRAVDA: Czechia finds funding to purchase 800,000 shells for Ukraine
“Ukraine’s allies have provided almost all of the funding ($1.5 Billion) required to carry out the Czech initiative...
...Czech President Petr Pavel stated at the Munich Security Conference that the Czech Republic had found up to 800,000 projectiles of NATO standard calibre that it could send to Ukraine in a few weeks if it received the funding for delivery.
The Czech Defence Ministry stated earlier that it was coordinating efforts and seeking previous commitments from Canada and Denmark, as well as other countries that preferred to remain unnamed.
The Netherlands publicly announced its participation after allocating €250 million for ammunition procurement, as did Belgium, which will donate €200 million. France, Germany and Latvia also expressed support.”
Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
Is it true that they almost hit Zelensky in Odessa?
In the first half of the day in Odessa, a targeted strike was carried out on the port infrastructure. At this time, Vladimir Zelensky was in the Odessa port - he held a meeting with the Prime Minister of Greece. We have learned some details of this story.
Firstly, both Zelensky and his foreign guest remained alive. Iskander-M ballistic missiles were used for the strike. One of them reached the port, another was shot down on approach.
Secondly, the shelling was essentially a response from our authorities to the raising of rates by the West.
It is no secret that in the coming days they are planning to receive Emmanuel Macron in Kyiv, who has recently made a sharp turn in his rhetoric and even advocates the introduction of foreign troops into the territory of modern Ukraine.
Thirdly, none of the interlocutors in the special services will admit where we got the information about Zelensky’s visit to Odessa. The fact that the leak could have occurred on the part of the guests cannot be ruled out, but this time the reconnaissance really showed the level.
It’s a shame we didn’t hit it.
Overall, it is clear that this incident is a clear signal to Western leaders and an upping of the ante by Moscow.
According to rumors, Nikolai Patrushev personally set the task of killing Zelensky before the elections. But in general, killing the leaders of states, even of warring countries, is an extremely difficult matter.