ISW backs off warning of imminent annexation risk in Transnistria (27 Feb).
“Recent developments in Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova, are unlikely to pose a military threat to Ukraine and will more likely impact Moldova’s European Union (EU) integration prospects... ISW is amending its warning forecast in light of continued Transnistrian officials’ statements that the upcoming Congress of Transnistrian Deputies will discuss Moldovan economic policies, likely related to changes to Moldova’s Customs Code that went into effect on January 1, 2024...
...Moldova’s path towards EU membership required Moldova to change to its Customs Code to align with EU regulations. Moldova had previously exempted Transnistrian businesses from paying duties to the Moldovan government for Transnistrian imports from and exports to the EU and instead allowed Transnistrian businesses to pay duties to the Transnistrian government.
Transnistria responded to the January 2024 changes requiring that Transnistrian businesses pay required duties to the Moldovan government by increasing taxes on about 2,000 Moldovan businesses in Transnistria, but Transnistrian President Vadim Krasnoselsky stated on February 24 that customs payments to the Transnistrian budget still decreased by 18 percent since the start of 2024.
Major actors in Transnistria have varying economic and political interests. The American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (CTP) previously assessed that Transnistria is a mafia state run by Viktor Gushan, whose company Sheriff Enterprises controls a majority of the Transnistrian economy and receives large portions of Transnistria’s government spending.
Gushan’s businesses have been heavily oriented towards the EU after Moldova signed a trade deal with the EU in 2014 that guaranteed tariff-free access to EU markets. Gushan’s businesses would also benefit from the reestablishment of good Ukrainian-Transnistrian relations, as Transnistria imported and exported most of its goods through Ukraine until Ukraine closed those borders in 2022 due to Russia’s full-scale invasion — facts that would give Gushan good reason to oppose Transnistrian annexation into Russia for economic reasons.
EU officials have indicated that Moldova could join the EU without Transnistria. Gushan may prefer a Western-oriented Moldova in which Transnistria enjoys special tax exceptions over annexation into Russia or Moldovan EU membership without Transnistria. Moldova, however, is unlikely to reverse its customs code changes given its current commitment to joining the EU. Gushan’s calculus, therefore, is complex, and his preferences are unclear at this time. ISW will provide an update following the Congress of Deputies on February 28.
Russia may also hope to exploit a hybrid play in Transnistria taking advantage of recent developments. Gushan likely competes with the Transnistrian Ministry of State Security (MGB), reportedly a “department” of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) that takes orders from the Kremlin. Citizens of both Russian-influenced regions of Moldova — Transnistria and Gagauzia — notably recently protested Moldova’s new Customs Code. Russia may attempt to exploit domestic opposition to Moldovan policies to sow instability in Moldova and delay Moldova’s accession to the EU.”
I don't think Transnistria wants to be annexed at this moment. They want economic aid from Russia. Being annexed right now would mean they are officially at war with Ukraine, and that's the last thing they want.
Transnistria is about to lose their number one source of income, and it might happen as soon as this year. Transnistria currently gets gas from Russia FREE. That's right, FREE. And FREE gas is pretty much what keeps Transnistria alive. It uses much of this gas to fire power plants that supply Moldova with about 70% of it's electricity. The income from selling electricity to Moldova accounts for about half of Transnistria's budget, not to mention free gas for their own electrical production, heating, cooking, industrial uses, etc. Moldova is currently constructing transmission lines into Romania and Ukraine to connect to Europe's grid. Without free gas, Transnistria will collapse. Moldova has already switched to alternative gas sources, save for Transnistria. Once they secure electrical power, they can cut off Gazprom completely.