Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
7 Tu-95s now.
Launch of 50 cruise missiles reported. Will know if real or simulated in one hour.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12, 2024
Recent Western and Ukrainian estimates about the size of the Russian force grouping in Kursk Oblast do not represent a significant inflection, as Russian forces have spent several months gathering forces for a future counteroffensive effort to expel Ukrainian forces from Russian territory. Ukrainian officials and Western media recently reported that Russia has concentrated a rough total of 50,000 personnel, including about 8,000 - 10,000 North Korean forces, in Kursk Oblast in preparation for an operation to push Ukrainian forces from Russian territory before late January 2025 and suggested that Russia has not redeployed any of these forces from eastern Ukraine.[19] Ukrainian sources estimated in September and October 2024 that Russian forces had already concentrated between 30,000 and 50,000 personnel in Kursk Oblast, including an estimated 35,000 personnel from Russia’s Northern Grouping of Forces who were operating in Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod oblasts and northern Kharkiv Oblast prior to the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast in August 2024.[20] US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stated on October 31 that 8,000 North Korean soldiers are also currently operating as part of the larger Russian force grouping in Kursk Oblast.[21] A Ukrainian servicemember stated on November 11 that Russian forces are also redeploying additional elements of the 104th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (76th VDV Division) and several battalions of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla) from western Zaporizhia Oblast to Kursk Oblast, but ISW has not observed independent indications of these redeployments as of this report.[22] ISW observed reports in mid-October 2024 that elements of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment were operating near Chasiv Yar.[23] Ukraine’s Pivnich (Northern) Operational Command Spokesperson Colonel Vadym Mysnyk reported on November 11 that the Russian military is frequently transferring new reserves to Kursk Oblast due to high personnel and equipment losses.[24] These reserves are likely intended to replace personnel losses and not significantly bolster the existing Russian force grouping in the area.
Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)
The Russian military reportedly continues to coerce conscripts into signing Russian military service contracts, likely as part of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts. Russian opposition outlet Mobilization News reported on November 12 that Russian commanders coerced conscripts subordinated to the Russian 80th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, Central Military District [CMD]) into signing volunteer service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).[79]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-12-2024
800,000 will come sooner rather than later. I wounder if Norks count as Russians, or like LNR/DNR troops, are not counted at all?
Meat wave attacks in Kursk are impacting all of the numbers.
Russian heavy equipment and supply vehicles being targeted by Ukrainian FPV drones from the 1st Special Operations Detachment in the Kursk region
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1856652748487381078
4:24 video at the link above.
The russians have attacked Kyiv with ballistic missiles.
With bombers protected by Biden.
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1856574107434754256
https://x.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1856607864150008190
Partisans!
Shot down:
0/2 S-300 ballistic missiles
2/2 Kh-101 cruise missiles
2/2 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
84/90 Shahed drones (37 shot down, 47 downed by electronic warfare)
Two more drones left towards Russia.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1856612781946028375
😂 The Economist reports Kiev is “concerned” about Pompeo not being in Trump’s cabinet.
Yeah, wonder if that’s because they’ve already paid him millions through Kievstar based on assurances he would be.— Baron of the Taiga (@baronitaigas) November 12, 2024
Transkovskiy is a war criminal who gave orders to launch cruise missiles at civilian objects in Ukraine that killed a lot of civilians.
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1856648361396388183
Another war criminal disposed of.
I would imagine they are, plenty of corruption to go around, but I will stick to my prediction. Trump is not going to be the “friend” Putin thinks he will.
Obama said Isis could not be stopped, Trump came in and said get it done and it was over in months.
We will see what happens.
Heard wildberry is having a Going out of business sale, better jump on the deals 😂
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1856666363806265694
It is minus 3 degrees Celsius in Yekaterinburg and snowing today, weather websites report.
Putin doesn't care how many Russians suffer as he spends billions on war every day.
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1856637552024764910
https://x.com/GloOouD/status/1856577393009537383
This sentence makes no sense.
I'm guessing you meant to say, "I would imagine they are, there is plenty of corruption to go around, but I will stick to my prediction.
Once again I'm begging you to smarten up.
Last night, at least 12 drones crossed from Ukraine into Belarus, with two reportedly lost on Belarusian territory.
Belarusian aviation was reportedly deployed to respond to the drone threat.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1856660756013449612
UKF Electronic Warfare (EW)?
Reporting From Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU/videos
Reporting From Ukraine Uncensored Combat Footage (from this and past Reports) is found on Telegram:
https://t.me/RFUEnglish or @RFUEnglish
[ You need to have the Telegram app to view the larger videos. ]
The complete transcript.
—
[ New Record! Ukraine Launches Biggest Strike Yet! ]
—
Today [ Nov 13 ], there is a lot of news from the Russian Federation.
Here, in a daring raid, Ukrainian forces made the biggest drone attack yet against Moscow.
Ukrainians continue to use their latest drone developments to target critical Russian infrastructure, including airfields, oil depots, and military bases. The goal of these is to disrupt Russian offensive operations against both the Ukrainian armed forces and the country’s civilian population.
First of all, Ukrainian drones targeted Russia’s capital, Moscow. According to Russia’s Ministry of Defense, 84 Ukrainian drones were intercepted over 6 regions, with nearly half approaching Moscow and causing flights to be diverted from 3 major airports in the area.
This was the largest attack on the Russian capital since the start of the war and was described as massive by local officials. Footage released by residents, who defied government orders, not only contradicted official claims that no damage occurred, but also showcased the aftermath of the strikes, including the operations and locations of Russian air defense units.
Officials reported that most of the drones were intercepted over the Ramenskoye, Kolomna, and Domodedovo districts. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that 34 drones were shot down over the town in total.
Earlier Ukrainian forces struck Russian ammunition warehouses in the Bryansk region, during another large-scale drone attack. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that drone operators of the Unmanned Systems Forces successfully hit warehouses at the Russian military’s 1060th Logistics Center, known for storing missiles of various types, causing initial explosions and secondary detonations at the facility with geolocated imagery showing 2 large fires burning near it.
Bryansk was also targeted 10 days before that when one of the largest microelectronics plants in Russia caught fire after a drone strike.
This plant is located over 100 kilometers north of the border with Ukraine’s northern Sumy region and was attacked at least once before as well. It produces key components used widely in Russian defense production, including Pantsir air defense and Iskander missile systems.
In parallel, Ukrainian forces have maintained a series of strikes on military training camps in Russian border regions, seeking to disrupt Russia’s efforts to train newly mobilized troops. These operations are often executed with high precision, aided by reconnaissance drones for fire correction.
One recent strike targeted a tent encampment at a Russian military training ground in the Rostov region, with geolocated video footage revealing significant damage. Russian military officials reported that the attack took place overnight, catching many soldiers from the 150th Guards Motorized Rifle Division while they were resting in their tents.
Lately, Ukrainian forces have escalated attacks on Russian military positions, both within Ukraine and across the border, frequently focusing on such training grounds to weaken Russian capabilities.
On the night of November 7th, units from Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate executed a significant drone strike on an oil refinery in Saratov Oblast, reportedly causing damage to the facility’s infrastructure.
Social media footage captured a fire near the refinery, while a local Telegram channel reported that debris from a downed drone struck a fuel oil tank and a specialized installation. The refinery, a subsidiary of the Russian state oil company Rosneft, is said to produce approximately 7 million tons of oil annually.
A similar attack was conducted on the Aleksin Chemical Plant in Tula Oblast with 13 drones causing a fire, halting the plant’s operations, and eventually causing a chemical explosion. This key factory produces ammunition, gunpowder, and other products for the Russian defense industrial base.
Around the same time, Ukrainian military intelligence drone operators carried out a surprising long-range attack on a Russian naval base in the Dagestani port city of Kaspiysk using their domestically produced A-22 Flying Fox drone.
The base houses Russia’s Caspian Flotilla, along with Russian Marines and Coastal Troops. Reports indicate that the strike damaged at least two vessels - the missile ships Tatarstan and Dagestan - and potentially several smaller Project 21631 ships.
This targeted fleet has been involved in strikes against Ukraine, while the 177th Marine Regiment stationed at the base has seen combat in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Despite Russian authorities claiming that all drones were intercepted, social media videos suggest otherwise, showing drones hitting their targets and causing large explosions. The incident occurred approximately 15 kilometers from a local airport, which has since suspended operations indefinitely.
Overall, Ukraine is trying to keep all options open and is ramping up the domestic production of long-range munitions to not only bypass restrictions on the usage of Western-supplied weapons but also to intensify strikes in the deep Russian rear at a crucial moment.
This aims at causing premature culmination during the time the Russian offensive is at its peak which can ultimately lead to stagnation of the enemy’s efforts. The idea is not only to cripple all possible efforts of the Russian army by deranging logistics and targeting training grounds, but to cause long-term negative effects.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1856709257086783933
Novosibirsk Oblast on Google Maps
Russian losses in this column: 47 infantrymen, 2 tanks, 1 BTR, 3 combat armored vehicles, 1 motorcycle.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1856699381300236663
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